Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/29

[transformers2]

Despite some prerelease doubt, Ghostbusters nostalgia is still alive and well folks.

Frozen Empire effectively finished directly in line with its well-liked 2021 predecessor Afterlife with a $45 mil opening. How it fares moving forward with its good but not great WOM and the looming threat of Godzilla v. Kong stealing some of its audience away is another story entirely, but it's a solid start nonetheless for the proton pack-wielding, sprite-slaying goofballs.

Elsewhere on the new release front, it was all about movies that dealt with monsters of the slightly spookier variety. Indie horror flicks Immaculate ($5.3 mil) and Late Night with the Devil ($2.8 mil) did a pretty good job of bringing genre fans out to theaters on this late March weekend. The former marked a new OW record for indie distributor Neon and another BO feather in the cap for rising star Sydney Sweeney while the latter shattered any reasonable expectations for an IFC/Shudder project out of Australia (whether the AI art usage controversy it got into last week contributed to its overperformance remains debatable). Keep an eye on this unholy duo heading into this holy weekend.

The true limited release market was quiet in terms of size this weekend as the aforementioned small horror flicks both debuted in 1,000+ theaters, but that didn't stop Utopia's Femme from doing solid business. The queer British thriller that earned raves on the festival circuit and upon release in its native UK last year logged an impressive $17,277 from NYC's IFC Center. It expands to LA and Chicago this weekend and should be in the mix to pick up some more PTA points in this season's final frame.

Wrapping things up on this pre-Easter weekend was a somewhat surprising result in the heated top holdover battle between Dune: Part Two and Kung Fu Panda 4. Despite ceding a fair amount of its PLF presence to Frozen Empire, Dune: Part Two showed some remarkable resilience by dropping only 38% in weekend #4 (identical to the previous weekend's drop) and edging out Kung Fu Panda 4 by a margin of $1.1 mil ($17.6 to $16.5 mil). Fellow WB title Godzilla vs. Kong further cutting into its PLF share this weekend will be another strong litmus test for Dune: Part Two and if it passes, $300 mil domestic just might be in reach after all.


Wide Release:
3 years ago, two legendary monsters were pitted against each other so an evil corporation could test out their titan-destroying technology. Now, these longtime rivals will team up to face some of their more frisky, dangerous monster peers in Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (Warner Brothers).

By the looks of the marketing and sounds of the early social media reactions/rumblings, The New Empire is a cartoony romp that favors monster action over the human drama even more than the previous film-which tracks since the cast of actors is considerably smaller than that of Godzilla vs Kong (only Rebecca Hall, Brian Tyree Henry and Kaylee Hottle are returning from that film while the small band of newcomers is headlined by Dan Stevens). This is great news for the target audience as its exactly what the fans want/expect from this kind of film and could lead to some late boosts in ticket sales heading into the holiday weekend.

At just $8 in ULT and $7 in BO, The New Empire is one of the safest picks you could possibly make this season. Godzilla vs. Kong ripped off a $48.1 mil 5-day opening despite being a day-and-date release coming out at a time where US theaters still had major capacity restrictions in place and if all goes well, The New Empire should be able to clear that figure in its inaugural three days of release. Really the only downside is that you won't get the opportunity to enjoy all of the cash and points it rakes in over its entire run since the season comes to a close following this weekend.

Price: $8 ULT/$7 BO
Predictions: $40-55 mil OW/4-5 PTA/5 Top 5/low to mid 6 IMDb/ ($90-165 mil total BO)
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Without a doubt


Limited Releases:
Olivia Colman and Jessie Buckley starring as two women living in a small British seaside community getting into a heated rivalry that starts with the delivery of mysterious, expletive-laden letters to their neighbors sounds like the kind of rowdy party that you don't tend to get in the typically buttoned-up world of British period pieces. The relative novelty factor along with the sizable charm of its well-liked leading ladies should be enough to power Wicked Little Letters (Sony Classics) to a respectable opening limited release this weekend.
Price: $2 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions:$45-125k OW/3-5 PTA/0 Top 5/high 6 to low 7 IMDb/($800k-3 mil total BO)
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: It should nab at least a few PTA points this weekend, which makes it a solid, cheap option.


After getting lost in the deep roster of acclimated international fare this past awards season, La Chimera (Neon) finally gets its time to shine in the relative quiet of the spring prestige slate. This Italian 80's-set period fantasy drama that focuses on a British archaeologist (Josh O'Connor) who gets swept up in large international scheme to sell stolen Etruscan artifacts debuted to pretty strong reviews in competition for the Palm d'or last May and falls under Neon's sweet spot of thoughtfully crafted international fare. While it probably won't explode as Alice Rohrwacher's film haven't gained much traction stateside, its low theater count (3 to be exact) gives it a strong chance to earn some PTA points this weekend.
Price: $2 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions:$35-$65k OW/1-3 PTA/0 Top 5/mid to high 7 IMDB/($85-250k total BO)
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Maybe?


A Luc Besson comeback film isn't something I expected to see so soon after the French director stood trial for an alleged sexual assault and was accused of multiple others, but the film industry continues to find ways to forgive a lot of people that aren't deserving of forgiveness in short order. Dogman (Briarcliff) is an ambitious action thriller about a tormented man named Doug (Caleb Landry Jones) who elects to tell his unusual life story to a prison psychologist (Jojo T. Gibbs) after he's arrested for making an illegal delivery of dogs in New Jersey. In typical Besson fashion, the film received heavily polarized reviews in Venice with many critics being bewildered and entranced by its eccentricities and that mixed reception along with the whole alleged sexual assault thing is probably why the film's domestic rights ended up at smalltime distributor Briarcliff. They're launching the film on a limited basis this week before it taking it wide next weekend, which is odd since there's no apparent appetite for a Besson comeback film and Briarcliff is an enterprise that famously only exists to make money off selling films to foreign markets for quick profits. Safe to say, not very many people will be sad when this quietly tanks and even fewer people in these parts considered putting this on their slates.
Price: $3 ULT/$2 BO
Predictions:$25-75k OW/0-2 PTA/0 Top 5/low to mid 6 IMDb/($135-$500k total BO)
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No way


Like Dogman, On the Adamant (Kino Lorber) quietly moved to the 29th from the 15th earlier this month. Unlike Dogman, it has a chance to make some waves in the limited market this weekend. This French documentary tells the story of a floating building in Paris called the Adamant that serves as kind of a daycare center for adults with mental disorders and disabilities. Something so warm in nature isn't overly common in the arthouse space and Kino Lorber has quietly curated a solid audience with its diverse slate of arthouse offerings, making this arguably the most intriguing sleeper pick on this busy weekend for limited releases.
Price: $3 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions:$8-15k/1-4 PTA/0 Top 5/mid to high 7 IMDb/($20-45k total BO)
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: It has a chance of stealing the PTA crown this weekend with its guaranteed low theater count, so it could be worth taking a chance on.



Weekend Predictions:
1.Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $49 mil
2.Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $23 mil
3.Dune: Part Two $12 mil
4.Kung Fu Panda 4 $11 mil
5.Immaculate $3 mil

PTA: Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire, Wicked Little Letters, On the Adamant, La Chimera, Femme

I'll be back next week to break down a slate that includes a directorial debut finally seeing the light of day in theaters after spending a prolonged period wasting away in a prolific streaming service's comically vast vault of completed projects awaiting release, horror prequel that's largely buried its ties to the original in its marketing campaign and pair of foreign language titles that debuted to strong reviews in Venice last fall.

[Buscemi2]

Immaculate was not a hit, despite what the Sweeney apologists might say. Yes, $5 million is good for an independent film but there have been much better results for horror titles. In addition, the costs of promoting and putting the film into over 2,000 theatres certainly cost far more than $5 million. Its result doesn't even look that good when you realize Late Night with the Devil had a better per-theatre average with fewer showtimes at each theatre.

As for this week, I expect a smaller gross from Godzilla Kong (the x is silent) than Godzilla vs. Kong. Godzilla Minus One established that a decent size of the American viewing public want the OG Godzilla, not his American imitation. Also, the ad campaign hasn't been good and the effects look terrible, with some of the effects looking like they came from that Rise of Kong video game from last year.

As for Dogman, I have no idea why this is getting a theatrical release. Between the things with Besson, the dreadful reviews, and a lot of the film looking like a ripoff of the 2014 Hungarian film White God, it feels like something that would have been direct to streaming. And yet, I'm seeing trailers before other movies because Alamo Drafthouse wants to subject people to every single movie that played at Fantastic Fest, even if they are absolutely terrible.

[Chienfantome]

I hope On the Adamant will find an audience, even if a bit small, it's a wonderful film.

[Buscemi2]

Godzilla (silent letter) Kong is apparently pretty dreadful according to early word, as it currently has a 49 on Metacritic.

Shouldn't have killed off all of the signature Godzilla adversaries after one movie, Warner Bros.

[StarLord123]

I honestly wonder if the glowing reception for Godzilla Minus One is affecting reviews of this. I still have yet to see that due to radio silence regarding a US home release, so maybe that'll benefit my GxK viewing experience.

[transformers2]

Godzilla x Kong did $10 mil in previews, which is a new record for Legendary's MonsterVerse

[Buscemi2]

So I guess Godzilla Minus One helped this entry instead of hurting it.

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascore:

Godzilla x Kong: A-

[StarLord123]

I was more referring to Minus One affecting critical reviews of GxK, as folks are inevitably making comparisons. Regardless, I can see why this one is making a killing at the box office.

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $80 mil
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $15.7 mil
Dune: Part Two $11.1 mil
Kung Fu Panda 4 $10.2 mil
Immaculate $3.3 mil
Tilu Square $2.5 mil
Arthur the King $2.4 mil
Late Night with the Devil $2.2 mil
Crew $1.7 mil
Imaginary $1.4 mil

PTA:
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $20.7k
Wicked Little Letters $17.6k
La Chimera $15k
Femme $6k
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $3.6k

No word on Dogman or On the Adamant yet

[Chienfantome]

Never thought Godzilla × Kong would go that high.

[Buscemi2]

I think it's on account of nothing else being out, which would also explain the small drops on most everything else not family-friendly. I was convinced Late Night with the Devil would drop 80% after the poor response at my showing of it.

[Chienfantome]

Apparently On the Adamant made $6,371 on 1 screen.

[transformers2]

Indeed it did, which was good enough for a 4th place PTA finish

Weekend Actuals:
1.Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $80 mil
2.Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $15.6 mil
3.Dune: Part Two $11.4 mil
4.Kung Fu Panda 4 $10.3 mil
5.Immaculate $3.3 mil
6.Arthur the King $2.5 mil
7.Late Night with the Devil $2.2 mil
8.Tilu Square $1.9 mil
9.Crew $1.5 mil
10.Imaginary $1.4 mil

-Wicked Little Letters $76,654
-La Chimera $44,511
-On the Adamant $6,371

PTA:
1.Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $20,721
2.Wicked Little Letters $15,331 (5 theaters)
3.La Chimera $14,837 (3 theaters)
4.On the Adamant $6,371
5.Femme $5,796 (4 theaters)


Dogman didn't report.

Final standings for the JAN-MAR season will be up tonight or tomorrow.

[Buscemi2]

I'm surprised by that Wicked Little Letters number. Reviews haven't been very good and the trailer might be one of the year's worst. Nothing but in your face overacting.

If not for the cast, it would have been like one of those Focus dumps from a few years back where the movie gets dumped into 200 theatres with almost no marketing.