Screening The Releases - February 9th

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Screen203
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Screening The Releases - February 9th

Post by Screen203 »

Last Week

It turns out that not many cared to find out who the real Agent Argylle was. It opened to about 17.5 m, which was enough to get first place on a really weak weekend. WOM seems just as poor as its reviews, though; with the Super Bowl this weekend, it will be looking at a pretty hefty drop, and probably a final total of 40 m or so. In second was the first 3 episodes of season 4 of The Chosen, which grossed about 6 m. In third was the surprise hit of the year so far, The Beekeeper. Despite facing Argylle, it dropped just 21 percent to gross around 5 m, for a total so far of almost 50 m. Even with the Super Bowl this weekend, it should be strong enough to get to 60 m, and a potential sequel (which I feel is what MGM/Amazon are after) seems like it should happen. In fourth and fifth, Wonka and Migration are benefiting from a lack of competition for families. The former grossed about 4.5 m (dropping just 17 percent), crossing 200 m in the US, for a total of 201 m so far. The latter grossed about 4 m, having a mere 12 percent decline from last weekend, for a total of 106 m so far. While I have to imagine Universal is a little bit disappointed it's not reaching the same heights Illumination films are used to, it is still doing pretty well on its own, especially considering how original animation has performed recently. These two will likely also take a hit from the Super Bowl, but rebound over the next few weekends, before Kung Fu Panda 4 arrives. Outside the top 10, Scrambled opened to under 1 m.

How To Have Sex has the top PTA this weekend, grossing 12 k per theater. In second was Argylle, which grossed about 5 k per theater. Third went to Totem, which grossed 3 k per theater. Fourth went to Anslem, which grossed 3 k per theater. In fifth, The Peasants grossed 2 k per theater.

This Week

Lisa Frankenstein



I don't think this will do super well. Though I'm looking forward to seeing it, reviews haven't been that great. In addition, Focus hasn't had a great track record with successful films at the box office as of late. Diablo Cody's involvement may give it a small boost, but I don't think anything is going to move the needle at this point.

I expect an OW of 5 m, and a total of 12 m.

It will get you 4-5 Top 5 points, 1 PTA point, and a score of 6 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Out Of Darkness



I'm really looking forward to this as well, but it is likely to do even worse than Lisa Frankenstein. Reviews have been strong, and it's receiving a wider release than I expected. That being said, it seems to have very limited appeal. It is also being released by Bleecker Street, who has a very poor track record (though their film I.S.S. did about 7 m recently), which won't help matters.

I expect an OW of 1 m, and a total of 2 m.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Perfect Days



Note: I believe this has been in theaters since Wednesday, but I am not sure as to whether those grosses will be reported or not. The following projections are for the 3-day.

This is probably the release with the most potential of this week's releases, at least in Ultimate. It debuted to really strong reviews out of Cannes, where Koji Yakusho and Wim Wenders (who's previous film Anslem is also doing decent business) both won awards, and is nominated for Best International award at the Oscars. With The Taste Of Things moving to the 14th, I don't see why this can't take the PTA crown for this week and probably the next too (The Taste Of Things is going pretty wide). That being said, the film is allegedly very slow, which may slow its progress in expansion.

I expect an OW PTA of 20 k, and a total of 2 m.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 7-10 PTA points, and a score of 8 on IMDb.

I would say it's a good choice in Ultimate. Don't take it in Box Office

Drift



Reviews aren't great for this, and the distributor Utopia has a mixed track record. That being said, there isn't much competition this weekend for PTA besides Perfect Days, so it could have an okay showing.

I expect a PTA of 5 k, and a total under 1 m.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 4-6 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office. It may be worth a look in Ultimate.

The Monk And The Gun



I don't think this will do much in either Box Office or Ultimate. That being said, reviews have been strong, and the weak competition may mean this will be an okay choice.

I expect a PTA of 5 k, and a total under 1 m.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 3 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office. While it's not the worst choice in Ultimate, there are better options you could choose.

There is also a re-release of Turning Red, but I don't think it will do any better than the re-release of Soul did.

Top 5

Argylle - 6 m
Lisa Frankenstein - 5 m
The Beekeeper - 4 m
Wonka - 3 m
Anyone But You - 3 m

PTA

Perfect Days - 20 k
Drift - 5 k
The Monk And The Gun - 5 k
Anslem - 3 k
How To Have Sex - 3 k

Next Week

Join transformers for a look over the Valentine's Day/President's Day releases, which include Madame Web and Bob Marley: One Love.
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Buscemi2
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Re: Screening The Releases - February 9th

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascore:

Lisa Frankenstein: B

Between this, Argylle, and the negative early reviews on One Love (not to mention the drubbing Madame Web's going to get), February is turning into the new January.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: Screening The Releases - February 9th

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Estimates:
Argylle $6.5 mil
Lisa Frankenstein $3.8 mil
The Beekeeper $3.5 mil
The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 1-3 $3.2 mil
Wonka $3.1 mil
Migration $3 mil
Anyone But You $2.7 mil
Mean Girls $1.9 mil
Dune Re-Release $1.7 mil
American Fiction $1.3 mil

-Out of Darkness $1 mil
-Turning Red Re-Release $535k

PTA:
The Taste of Things $42k
Perfect Days $20k
Drift $6k
Argylle $1.8k
The Chosen $1.6k

No word on The Monk & the Gun yet
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transformers2
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Re: Screening The Releases - February 9th

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Actuals:
1.Argylle $6.2 mil
2.Lisa Frankenstein $3.7 mil
3.The Beekeeper $3.4 mil
4.Wonka $3.1 mil
5.Migraton $2.9 mil
6.The Chosen Season 4 Episodes 1-3 $2.8 mil
7.Anyone But You $2.7 mil
8.Mean Girls $1.9 mil
9.Dune Re-Release $1.7 mil
10.American Fiction $1.3 mil

-Out of Darkness $979,822
-Turning Red Re-Release $578,047
-The Taste of Things $130,050
-Perfect Days $100,925
-The Monk & the Gun $52,589
-Drift $6,000

PTA:
1.The Taste of Things $43,350 (3 theaters)
2.Perfect Days $16,821 (6 theaters)
3.Drift $6,000
4.Anslem $1,841 (11 theaters)
5.Argylle $1,734

-Lisa Frankenstein $1,176
-Out of Darkness $1,092 (897 theaters)
-The Monk & the Gun $523 (101 theaters)
-Turning Red $371
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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numbersix
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Re: Screening The Releases - February 9th

Post by numbersix »

What a disasterous week. Less than $30m for the top 10.

The studios could have picked up some indie films and pushed them harder, instead of another failed attempt to make a Diablo Cody script a hit.

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Re: Screening The Releases - February 9th

Post by Buscemi2 »

Or in the case of Warner Bros., not shelved every movie that doesn't appeal to Snydercut or isn't a sequel to a horror movie.

But anyway, few would dare face the Super Bowl, especially one that ended up almost going into double overtime. (Edit: this year's Super Bowl was the most-watched event in American television history.)
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Re: Screening The Releases - February 9th

Post by transformers2 »

Save for MLK weekend, Hollywood has effectively waved the white flag on the box office until March, so it was kind of inevitable that Super Bowl weekend would be the bleakest of all. They definitely could've picked a more viable counterprogramming option than Lisa Frankenstein to get some more traffic before kickoff on Sunday night, but as they've proven time and time again in recent years, the current studio heads aren't among the smartest or gutsiest people on the planet.
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