Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

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After its opening weekend results, Shazam!: Fury of the Gods might want to consider dropping the exclamation point from its name ASAP.

The sequel to the 2019 modest crowdpleasing hit barely squeaked past $30 mil for the weekend, which gives it the dubious honor of being the lowest-ever DCU opener that didn't receive a day-and-date release on HBO Max. Whether this performance can be attributed to WB's lack of marketing or the broader audience's lack of interest in a sequel to a purposefully goofy, low stakes superhero movie is up for debate (I believe that it was a bit of both), but it's pretty safe to say that Shazam! Won't be a priority of James Gunn and Peter Safran's-who ironically produced both films in the series-overhauled DCU.

While not quite as impactful as the Fury of the Gods faceplant, the newer small releases also failed to make noise this week. Moving On and Inside both managed just over $1k per theater as their distributors decided that each tepidly-reviewed title wasn't worthy of a slow rollout and immediately dumped them into hundreds of theaters where their fate's as non-starters were sealed by their lackluster returns. Would these titles had done well if they were given a limited initial break before slowly expanding? Probably not, but this disheartening trend in release strategies for indie movies that basically every specialty studio short of A24, Neon and Sony Classics has embraced post-lockdown has to be infuriating for these filmmakers whose films are kneecapped by the people that funded or acquired them without even getting a real shot at being successful.

The holdover market was a much less dreary place as Scream VI endured a standard slasher movie drop of around 60%, which translated to a sophomore frame of $17.3 mil and Creed III continued its franchise-best run by banking another $15.4 mil to bring its running total to $127.7 mil. Rounding out the top 5 were 65-which had a better-than-expected hold of 52.5% ($5.9 mil) in weekend #2 and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania-which continues to hang around despite its catastrophic second weekend drop and quietly crossed $200 mil over the weekend after earning another $4.2 mil.

Wide Releases:
In an era where non-horror franchises are pretty much never built from the ground up, John Wick became a hugely successful one in an organic fashion that we might not ever see again. The first film was on the brink of being exiled to a direct-to-VOD release until Lionsgate picked it up on the cheap during the summer of 2014 and it turned into a bit of a sleeper hit theatrically before it really found its legs as a WOM sensation on home video/VOD/HBO. This obviously inspired Lionsgate to green light a sequel and the rest is history. As a result of the success of John Wick, star Keanu Reeves' career got revitalized, co-director of the first film David Leitch became one of the most in-demand blockbuster directors in Hollywood and most importantly, the film's cleanly shot-and-edited fight choreography inspired more films to get away from the quick cut style that the Bourne franchise made popular a decade earlier.

This sentimental trip through the franchise's history was brought on by the strong likelihood that John Wick: Chapter 4 (Lionsgate) is the swan song for the primary series (the Ana de Armas-led spin-off Ballerina wrapped shooting in February and is expected to be released next year). Director Chad Stahelski has expressed he and Reeves' shared desire to move on from these films after a decade-long run and at a whopping 169 minutes in length, the film has the appearance of an epic finale to Wick's quest to be liberated from his life as an assassin for the second time.

The introduction of a grand finale factor is just the latest reason to be bullish on John Wick: Chapter 4. Given the consistently strong WOM its received, enthusiasm for this franchise has steadily grown over the years and that's resulted in yet another status quo-bucking trend for Wick as each subsequent film has considerably outgrossed the one that came before it (the films earned $43 ,$92, and $171 mil domestic respectively). Since Chapter 4 has received a tidal wave of glowing praise from critics with many saying it's the best installment to date, it appears that trend will continue without incident. I'm not sure just how high it will go this weekend, but don't be shocked if the Baba Yaga goes absolutely berserk and blows through its current $60-65 mil tracking numbers like they're a team of overmatched mob goons.
Price: $15 ULT/$15 BO
Predictions: $60-90 mil OW/7-10 PTA (2 weeks)/9-10 Top 5 (2 weeks)/low to mid 8 IMDB/$110-150 mil BO (2 weeks) ($190-250 mil total BO)
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: (Keanu Reeves voice) Yeah.


Limited Releases:
After a brief diversion to the world of light comedies with 2017's Going in Style, Zach Braff seems like he's back in his indie melodrama wheelhouse with A Good Person (MGM). The film focuses on the unlikely bond that forms between a woman (Florence Pugh) and her would-be father-in-law (Morgan Freeman) several years after an accident that claimed the life of her former fiance's (Chinaza Uche) sister (Nichelle Hines). On top of the clear primary themes of grief, loss and finding ways to work through those brutal emotions, Pugh's character is also an Oxycontin addict, so kudos to Braff for bringing out a smorgasbord of serious issues to trivialize with his manipulative writing/direction.

As high as Pugh's stock in Hollywood is at the moment, her presence likely won't do anything to bolster this project. Braff's directorial efforts post-Garden State have all failed to find much of an audience and MGM's marketing efforts have been dismal to the point where the vast majority of people who aren't diehard fans of one of the central cast members (Molly Shannon, Zoe Lister-Jones and Celeste O'Connor round out the ensemble) probably aren't even aware of its existence, let alone that it releases this week. The lack of holdover options for adult audiences is about the only thing “A Good Person” has going for it, but it's likely going to take a lot of good fortune with walk-up business for to it to be able capitalize on that market advantage.
Price: $3 ULT/$2 BO
Predictions: $500-800k OW/0-3 PTA/0-1 Top 5/mid to high 6 IMDB/$1.5-6 mil total BO($3-12 mil total BO)
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: At this point in the season, it's nothing but a cheap desperation play and if you're relegated to playing that hand, you're just hoping that it will make you enough money to not regret passing on the other reasonably-priced titles that were released earlier in the season. Considering that criteria and its rare status as a wide-ish release that's dirt cheap, it should be a fine enough selection.


Wait, I get to write about an IFC with an actual pedigree? Say ain't so!!! The Lost King (IFC) was on the festival circuit last fall and got released in the UK via Warner Brothers in October. Unfortunately, that's the point where the excitement surrounding it stops. Stephen Frears' fact-based dramedy only racked up the equivalent of roughly $1.9 mil US dollars at the box office and never placed higher than #6 on the weekend office charts. Considering its poor performance on a grander scale in its home country, The Lost King is doomed to fail abroad. But hey at least it's going to outgross other recent IFC hits like God's Time, Life Upside Down and Bar Fight!.
Price: $3 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $45-90k OW/0 PTA or top 5/low to mid 6 IMDB/$70-165k BO ($90-230k total BO)
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No


Weekend Predictions:
1.John Wick: Chapter 4 $80 mil
2.Shazam!: Fury of the Gods $11.5 mil
3.Creed III $10 mil
4.Scream VI $9 mil
5.65 $3 mil

-A Good Person $600k
-The Lost King $400k

PTA: John Wick: Chapter 4, Creed III, Scream VI, Shazam!: Fury of the Gods, A Good Person

I'll be back next week to break down this season's finale slate that includes one of the biggest critical darlings from SXSW and this year's Sundance Grand Jury Prize winner.
Last edited by transformers2 on March 22nd, 2023, 3:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

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It's looking like The Lost King will wide or at least semi-wide as it's getting a theatre in my area. However, it looks like a non-starter even with Sally Hawkins and the reteaming of the creative talent of Philomena.

Personally, I'd be interested in it if Stephen Frears and company hadn't decided to make RIchard III one of the main characters.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

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The Lost King is indeed at least a semi-wide release, but its weak prospects and unknown theater count led to me going low on the OW prediction.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

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Skinamarink got around 700 theatres, though it had the backing of Shudder, while the forthcoming Paint is looking to be around 1,000 theatres. The Lost King could be in the 500-700 range.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

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A Good Person is only being released in an estimated 530 theaters. Estimates in the OP have been adjusted accordingly.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

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And it's unsurprisingly getting trashed by critics. Zach Braff should probably stick to T-Mobile ads at this point.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

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John WIck: Chapter 4 gets the highest Cinemascore for the franchise, achieving an A. I'm kind of surprised to be honest, as the response at my showing wasn't very enthusiastic.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

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Had the polar opposite experience at mine. It was easily one of the most electric crowds I've ever been a part of, especially in the final hour
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

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The last third had a decent response but the audience was just dead silent for the first two-thirds.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

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Weekend Estimates:
John Wick: Chapter 4 $73.5 mil
Shazam!: Fury of the Gods $9.7 mil
Scream VI/Creed III $8.4 mil
65 $3.3 mil
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania $2.4 mil
Cocaine Bear $2.1 mil
Jesus Revolution $2 mil
Champions $1.5 mil
Avatar: The Way of Water $1.4 mil

-A Good Person $834k
-The Lost King $575k
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

Post by Chienfantome »

As any series of film known such an upward trajectory in terms of box-office, film after film, like the John Wick movies do ? It's really impressive.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

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In the modern era, absolutely not. The increasingly passionate WOM that's driven that significant film-to-film growth pretty much spits in the face of every franchise trend we've seen from Hollywood in the past 10-15 years. Chad Stahelski deserves a ton of credit for finding a way to expand the scope and scale of the films without ever losing sight of what made the original work.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/24

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Weekend Actuals:
1.John Wick: Chapter 4 $73.8 mil
2.Shazam!: Fury of the Gods $9.3 mil
3.Scream VI $8.3 mil
4.Creed III $8.2 mil
5.65 $3.2 mil
6.Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania $2.4 mil
7.Cocaine Bear $2.1 mil
8.Jesus Revolution $2 mil
9.Champions $1.5 mil
10.Avatar: The Way of Water $1.4 mil

-A Good Person $834k
-The Lost King $516k

PTA:
1.John Wick: Chapter 4 $19,149
2.Creed III $2,555
3.Scream VI $2,483
4.Shazam!: Fury of the Gods $2,294
5.A Good Person $1,574 (530 theaters)

-The Lost King $686 (753 theaters)
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