Screening The Releases - August 12th

[Screen203]

Last Week

Bullet Train sped to the top with 30 m, which is a solid opening, if a bit below it's lofty expectations (which is similar to the way that David Leich's last non-franchise film, Atomic Blonde, performed in a similar release slot - although the numbers for this are higher, so was the budget). Legs should be solid for it, despite the mixed reviews, considering how empty August is. In second, DC League Of Super Pets had a rather mediocre drop, falling 52% to 11 m, although it should recover considering the utter lack of competition for families. Nope is in third, falling 54% to 8 m. In fourth and fifth, Thor: Love And Thunder and Minions: The Rise Of Gru both grossed 7 m, dropping 42% and 35% respectively. On the arthouse scene, Bodies Bodies Bodies debuted with a great 37 k average from six theaters, the third best of 2022 beating The Worst Person... It expands wide this week, and should perform the best of the openers this weekend. Speaking of the openers this weekend...

This Week

Fall



The premise to this one reminds me of the Robert Zermckis flop The Walk from about 7 years ago, which bombed despite his and Josepth-Gordon Levitt's involvement, and solid reviews. While I really liked The Walk, and plan on seeing this in theaters too, this seems to have even less going for it than that did, and it seems that Lionsgate agrees, as they are dumping this one in less than 2,000 locations. These kind of thrillers rely on a somewhat relatable premise as well as star power - being stuck on a radio tower does not compare to something like cage diving (the trailer highlights it being from the producers of 47 Meters Down) in terms of plausibilty, and the biggest name in the cast is Jeffery Dean Morgan in what looks like a very small role. Also, this is opening a week before Beast, which has had a much higher-profile marketing campaign and will likely get better reviews, and is fighting Bodies Bodies Bodies, Nope, and Where The Crawdads Sing for it's target audience. I don't think that this even hits 15 m.

I see an opening of 4 m and a 10 m total.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 2 PTA points, and a 4 on IMDb.

To say the least, don't take in in Box Office or Ultimate (though there are worse choices this weekend, such as the next film).

Mack And Rita



I have seen absolutely nothing for this film. The Freaky Friday/Big style premise is more than played out (although Little did okay business), and I don't think that Diane Keaton will be able to salvage this one. It will be lucky to do Easter Sunday's OW in total.

I seen an opening of 1 m and a 2 m total.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a 4 on IMDb.

Don't take this one on any slate.

Limited Releases

Summering



This one seems like a non-starter, despite the idea of a modern-day Stand By Me sounding promising on paper. While James Ponslolt has had critical hits in the past with The Spectacular Now and The End Of The Tour, his last film The Circle bombed with both critics and audiences. While this film's reviews are better than The Circle's, they are still very mixed. Also, it is very likely to be released semi-wide, which is usually a terrible sign for an arthouse film in terms of box-office potential.

It will get you 0 PTA points, and a 5 on IMDb.

Don't take it in either Box Office or Ultimate.

Emily The Criminal



Back after it's Sundance premire, I was convinced this would be the indie breakout of the summer. Over time, that has seemed less and less likely. However, I still think it will do okay business (at least in comparison to the rest of this week's releases). The reviews are strong, Aubrey Plaza has a solid fanbase, and thrillers almost always have an audience, despite how little they get released in theaters. The distributor is also very good at handling semi-wide releases. However, I think that Breaking releasing later this month has more of a chance of breaking out.

It will get you 1 PTA point and a 6 on IMDb.

Of the choices this week, it is most likely the best option. Still, don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Rogue Agent (Freegard)



This thriller (based on a true story) has already premiered on Netflix in the UK. Though reviews are strong so far, there is next to no buzz.

It will get you 0 PTA points, and currently has a 6 on IMDb.


Top 5

Bullet Train - 15 m
DC League Of Super Pets - 8 m
Nope - 5 m
Bodies Bodies Bodies - 5 m
Minions: The Rise Of Gru - 5 m

PTA

Bodies Bodies Bodies
Nope
Fall
Emily The Criminal
A Love Song

As questionable as this week seems, it's only the middle of August - it will get much worse. Join transformers next week for a overview of films including Beast starring Idris Elba.

[Buscemi2]

Why is everything bolded?

I'm going to say that Top Gun returns to the Top 5 as a result of the exclusive footage and it probably regaining some theatres. I think it does better than Bodies Bodies Bodies, which probably struggles to hit $2,000 PTA.

And Aubrey Plaza might have a fanbase but they don't actively seek out her movies in theatres. She's the female Andy Samberg: big on TV and streaming but a non-factor at the box office.

[Screen203]

I'm not sure why everything is in bold - I only intended for certain things to be bolded, but I haven't been able to change it back, even though there I didn't put most of the post in bold quotes.

[Buscemi2]

Fall is actually getting decent early reviews. Maybe this opens a bit better than expected.

[Screen203]

I don't think reviews will be strong enough to move the needle at this point. That being said, I don't get why Lionsgate is dumping this the way they have - it could have done similar numbers to the 47 Meters Down sequel if they actually gave it a decent campaign.

[transformers2]

I don't think reviews will be strong enough to move the needle at this point. That being said, I don't get why Lionsgate is dumping this the way they have - it could have done similar numbers to the 47 Meters Down sequel if they actually gave it a decent campaign.

Agreed. It's a super low budget movie ($3 mil) that they likely picked up for peanuts, so they could've easily turned a profit if they gave it any type of legit push.

[Buscemi2]

Looks like Mack and Rita has the worst Cinemascore so far this year, achieving a D+. I still have no idea how this got a wide release.

The only other Cinemascore this week is Fall, which scored a B.

[Screen203]

Looks like Mack and Rita has the worst Cinemascore so far this year, achieving a D+. I still have no idea how this got a wide release.

I believe Men had a D+ as well, but Mack And Rita getting that low of a score is not something I was expecting, as bad as it looks. Is that the worst score for a mainstream comedy ever?

[Buscemi2]

Lucky Numbers had an F in 2000.

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Bullet Train $13.4 mil
DC League of Superpets/Top Gun: Maverick $7.2 mil
Thor: Love and Thunder/Nope $5.3 mil
Minions: The Rise of Gru $4.9 mil
Where the Crawdads Sing $4 mil
Bodies Bodies Bodies $3.3 mil
Elvis $2.6 mil
Fall $2.5 mil

-Mack and Rita/E.T IMAX Re-Release $1.1 mil
-Emily the Criminal $669k

[Buscemi2]

As bad as this week was at the box office, the two worst performers went to titles not in the game.

- Inu-oh, which had solid reviews and a reasonable push by its distributor, made only $190,000 in 350 theatres. And you thought the performance of the GKIDS's other 2021 festival hit was bad.

- Meanwhile, Summering, scaled back from a wide release, made only $31,000 in 260 theatres. This shows that even the biggest fans of 2010's indies have written off James Ponsoldt as nothing more than a hack who got lucky with his two A24 titles. It's also yet another flop for Bleecker Street, whom I have to imagine might be trying to organize a merger with Neon or another label as I'd be surprised if they survived the end of the year. Dream Horse might have been their last decent performer and even that only did fair numbers.

[Screen203]

I thought Summering was in the game?

As for Bleeker Street, I imagine they will be fine in the long run (they always seem to do okay despite a long list of bombs, especially over the past few years). I do think that Breaking should be able to do at least 5 m, though.

[transformers2]

I thought Summering was in the game?

As for Bleeker Street, I imagine they will be fine in the long run (they always seem to do okay despite a long list of bombs, especially over the past few years). I do think that Breaking should be able to do at least 5 m, though.

Summering is indeed in the game.

If anything is going to reserve Bleecker Street's current fortunes, it's going to be Breaking. We're in the midst of the deadest period of the box office calendar since late January and a well-reviewed, fact-based crime drama is something that could do decent numbers if it's platformed correctly and/or well-marketed.

[Buscemi2]

Breaking won't do any business. Reviews haven't been that glowing (61 on Metacritic, which will likely drop into yellow levels once more critics see it), marketing has been limited as the campaign only started after the title was changed from 892 last month or so, and Boyega is not a box office draw. Sure, it's Michael K. Williams' final film but he was usually a supporting actor whose greatest success was on TV.

I'll be surprised if it even hits $2 million.

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals
1.Bullet Train $13.4 mil
2.Top Gun: Maverick $7.1 mil
3.DC League of Superpets $7 mil
4.Thor: Love and Thunder $5.37 mil
5.Nope $5.36 mil
6.Minions: The Rise of Gru $5 mil
7.Where the Crawdads Sing $4 mil
8.Bodies Bodies Bodies $3.3 mil
9.Elvis $2.6 mil
10.Fall $2.5 mil

-Mack and Rita $1.09 mil
-ET IMAX Re-Release $1.07 mil
-Emily the Criminal $669k

PTA:
1.Bullet Train $3,076
2.Bodies Bodies Bodies $2,520
3.Nope $1,944
4.DC League of Superpets $1,841
5.Thor: Love and Thunder $1,693

-Fall $1,622
-Emily the Criminal $1,423 (470 theaters)
-Mack & Rita $567
-Summering $126 (260 theaters)