SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/01

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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/01

Post by numbersix »

Elvis may have left the building, but he’s still keeping us in the theatres. A fierce battle with the equally leathery Tom Cruise resulted in the King pipping the post, doing it his way, and opening to an impressive $31m. It’s no Bohemian Rhapsody, but do expect an impressive hold. Perhaps not as impressive as Maverick’s magnificent run, which is keeping both the box office and Lockheed Martin in the green. But they weren’t the only winners, with Scott Derrickson horror The Black Phone beating expectations with an impressive $23m opening and ringing in a strong Cinemascore for its genre.

This weekend marks prime box office territory, as families flee to the cinemas to escape their unbearable families over the Independence Day weekend.




The only wide opener is Minions: The Rise of Gru (Universal). This is the second Minions movies and the sixth film in the Despicable Me universe, none of which I’ve seen so my snark is somewhat rudderless here. This prequel sees the little yellow lads destined for claw arcade games help out a young Gru in his first steps to become an evil mastermind. By bumbling into each other in increasingly slapstick ways.

The first Minions film actually outdid predictions and earned $336m, making it the 2nd highest earner of the franchise. These impossibly cute and infinitely marketable creatures are an easy sell for a younger audience who don’t have the attention span for dialogue. However, approach with caution. We all assumed Pixar films are a guaranteed slam-dunk, but two weeks ago Toy Story spin-off Lightyear opened to a disappointing $50m and is failing to hold. Are families concerned about COVID, and sticking to Disney Plus? Well, one could argue Lightyear didn’t feel necessary, and its trailer was frankly awful, so we can assume the Minions will do somewhat better.

I’m going to predict a $75m opening over the 3 days, and a solid hold that would take it to about $220m. That’s the weakest of the franchise, but still strong for our lockdown days. For Ultimate you should see 12 T5 points, 9 PTA points, a low 6s IMDB. For $37 in Ultimate that may be a little steep, as it won’t come close to Thor 4 and the alternative combo of Nope and, let’s say, Bullet Train, could net you more, though they are wild-cards. For $39 in BO it’s a little better, and probably has a stronger multiplier than most films across August and September.


Now for the limited releases…




Mr Malcolm’s List (Bleecker St) is one of those stuffy British rom-coms. Not big enough to be a Love, Actually or similar, but instead what we in the industry call the “grey pound”, meaning a film intended for an older (usually female) audience who just want something gentle. Downton Abbey is the perfect example. This well-reviewed film with some mildly recognisable stars may be designed for the flat-screens in God’s Waiting Room, but if Bleecker St have a similar release strategy to The Duke, expect this to earn a few PTA points this week and maybe next. Worth considering for $4 in Ultimate, but not in BO.
EDIT: Having looked into it, it seems this is coming out in a few hundred theatres this weekend, so forget that PTA potential and skip entirely




On paper, The Forgiven (Roadside Attractions) would be a PTA goldmine, being John Michael McDonagh’s (the less talented of the brothers) latest – the man behind The Guard and Calvary. But this film, starring Ralph Fiennes and Jessica Chastain, about a posh British couple who try to hide a hit-and-run while in Morocco, didn’t wow audiences in Toronto last year, and Roadside may put it out in too many theatres to make it worth it. Avoid, unless it comes out in NY/LA only.




Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song (SPE) is a music doc about the world’s dreariest chanteur, who also happens to be a genius. Focusing on one of his iconic songs (known in my generation through Jeff Buckley’s haunting cover), it features many famous faces. There have been quite a few Cohen docs out already, but Sony Classics is putting this out in LA and NY this weekend. You might see 3-4 PTA points from this, so consider for Ultimate.




Finally, Clara Sola (Oscilloscope) is a Costa Rican drama which played to the 15 people who turned up in Cannes last year, and despite the good reviews it may not be enough to get you anything besides a single PTA point. Perhaps worth filling your slate if you’ve only $2 left in Ultimate.



Predictions for the weekend

1. Minions 2 - $80m
2. Top Gun Maverick: 17m
3. Elvis - $16m
4. Jurassic World Dominion - $14m
5. The Black Phone - $11m


PTA: Minions 2, Hallelujah, Top Gun 2, Elvis, Jurassic World Dominion.

Next week our resident Transformer casts his robotic eye over a mere two films, doc Fire of Love and the billionth MCU film.
Last edited by numbersix on June 28th, 2022, 3:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/01

Post by Buscemi2 »

Hallelujah's reviews haven't been the best and the last documentary on Leonard Cohen (Nick Broomfield's Marianne and Leonard: Words of Love) wasn't so hot. Maybe Cohen's just more interesting when we don't have the myth of him shattered before our eyes.

Mr. Malcolm's List is going to be a wide release (I'm guessing about 1,000-1,500 theatres). Nearly every theatre near me has it booked. I'm going to say between $2-4 million for the four-day.

And Minions seems like a wild card at this point. Pre-COVID, this looked like a hit. But post-COVID, it feels like an afterthought. The previous film was seven years ago and there hasn't been much marketing (I've seen far more advertising for Fire of Love, a much smaller film with perhaps a hundredth of an ad budget). And who still cares about Minions outside of old people making unhinged political memes on Facebook? I'm thinking it could drop as low at $50 million three-day.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/01

Post by numbersix »

Yes, it seems Mr Malcolm is coming out much wider than expected. Makes it not worth picking for either game.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/01

Post by Buscemi2 »

I had mentioned that Mr. Malcolm's List looked to be at least semi-wide when we were talking about Brian & Charles a few weeks back.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/01

Post by Chienfantome »

Yeah, Lightyear disappointment makes us cautious about Minions, even though it should do better than Pixar's latest.
Top Gun is gonna hold better than that, I'm pretty sure. 17M would make it what, a 40% decline ? In its current run, it seems unlikely, even more so approaching the 4th of July weekend. I'm guessing it's gonna stay above 20M.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/01

Post by transformers2 »

Chienfantome wrote:
June 28th, 2022, 4:46 pm
Yeah, Lightyear disappointment makes us cautious about Minions, even though it should do better than Pixar's latest
Top Gun is gonna hold better than that, I'm pretty sure. 17M would make it what, a 40% decline ? In its current run, it seems unlikely, even more so approaching the 4th of July weekend. I'm guessing it's gonna stay above 20M.
Agreed. Each entry in this franchise has performed significantly worse than its predecessor and the animated franchise/spin-off fatigue has really intensified in recent years. Tracking is at $65-75 mil for the 3 day weekend, which I think is generous. I'll go with a Lightyear-esque $50-55 mil.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/01

Post by Buscemi2 »

Speaking of spinoffs, will League of Superpets open above or below Teen Titans Go! to the Movies?
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/01

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It's very likely that it will outgross the full run of Teen Titans! by Saturday of its OW
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/01

Post by Screen203 »

I think you are right on with the Minions opening, though I expect legs to be better. I feel like the hook of Gru's rise to infamy is a much better premise than the last Despicable Me film had, and while there are other films vying for it's audience, none other than Super Pets should be that big - and even that probably won't do more than 150 m, though it will easily outperform Teen Titans.... The biggest thing standing in it's way is the mediocre reception to the first Minions, IMO. Additionally, Thor will cut out a lot of the older audience that often powers animated films to the next level at the box office.

I doubt any of the other releases will do that much. I want to see The Forgiven, but it seems like there has been no buzz around it, despite the cast.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/01

Post by transformers2 »

Minions did $10.8 mil in previews yesterday (showtimes started at 2 PM), so I guess people do care about some spin-offs!
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/01

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That's double what Lightyear made.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/01

Post by Chienfantome »

That's impressive indeed.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/01

Post by Spectre »

That's a crazy figure for something like this.

I'm just pumped to see the box office come roaring back. Should be a massive sign that theatrical releases are still the way to go.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/01

Post by Buscemi2 »

But watch it dip again after the product shortages of August and September come in. Some scheduled September titles still don't have any promotional materials out (Salem's Lot, The Woman King, Honk for Jesus). Feels like everything that's finished is being saved for Thanksgiving and Christmas.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 7/01

Post by Screen203 »

That's HUGE for Minions. I think it could do 100 m over the 3 day now!
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