SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILM OF 4/26

[numbersix]

Last weekend saw the Easter Bunny being slaughtered in one of the weakest in years, despite The Curse of La Llorona earning a surprisingly decent $26m and Christian flick Breakthrough making $14m across 5 days. The real reason is because both audiences and studios are holding off for this week. What used to be one of the most fruitless 3-days in the calendar is now a bounty of box office, with Disney realising they could pretty much dump any of their Marvel films in 3am-only screenings and still do a Scrooge McDuck through the mountains of cash it would earn. And on that note, let’s get to one of the biggest films of this decade.




Yes, it’s time for The White Crow (IFC). After the monster hits that were Coriolanus and The Invisible comes actor Ralph Fiennes’ next flick as director. This one is about the Soviet ballet dancer Rudolf Nureyev who defected to the West.

Yeah, I know, I’ve played this trick before. But really let’s get the small fish out of the way. This moderately liked drama is deliberate counter-programming for the few grannies who have never heard of TinDude or AuntGuy. It’s pretty much guaranteed 4 PTA points this week and maybe some next, which makes it a safe bet for the $3 in Ultimate. Avoid in BO.




Avengers: Endgame (Buena Vista) needs no real introduction. Even MCU-sceptics like myself know exactly what the ridge-chinned Thanos did when he clicked his finger at the end of Infinity Wars. So now we’re left with half of our heroes to hunt down ol box-face and try and resurrect Spiderman before Far From Home opens on July 2nd. Added to the mix of this film is newcomer Captain Marvel (whose incel-enraging debut earned a massive $400m to date), a very emo Hawkeye, and Ant-Man who may defeat Thanos through that classic shrink-then-enter-butt-then-expand move that we all want to happen.

There is no doubt that this is vying to be the biggest film of the year, as it is the culmination of 12 years and three phases of Marvel superhero movies that have utterly dominated the box office. The questions are really how high can it go, and how valuable is it in this little game of ours.

On the first issue, Infinity Wars opened to a record-breaking $257m and earned $678m in total. There is no reason to expect anyone who watched that film to not return to see Endgame, even if for some reason it’s considered to be a weaker effort (Captain Marvel’s weaker RT score, for example, seemed to bounce off with little impact). Indeed, Endgame could open higher. And although it’s pretty obvious that half of the universe who turned to dust will be brought back, it’s clear that some of the beloved MCU heroes will die for good. Directing duo The Russo Brothers are already asking fans to keep the spoilers to themselves, setting up some big and potentially heart-breaking demises (Iron Man and Captain America being the most likely) that will generate plenty of nerd-tears and repeat viewings. And if you look at the only comparable, Harry Potter, the final film was the highest earner. Yet, there is one problem which may defeat Endgame’s record-breaking potential: its run-time. While Harry Potter 8 was the shortest in the series, Endgame runs at a hefty 3 hours; 20 mins more than Avatar, 24 mins more than Infinity Wars, with only James Cameron’s Titanic running past 3 hours and being part of the all-timers. 3 hours is a long time, meaning less screenings per screen. So while it’s possible that we can see this weekend go even higher, it’s also possible it could be less. Still, regardless of runtime expect this film to earn over $600m, and be the #1 of the year.

So is it worth it? In BO, where it costs $38 in April leagues, then $66 and $67 in the others, you’re going to see a 10x return, something you probably won’t see in any other blockbuster, so unless you’re expecting surprise returns from Aladdin or The Secret Lives of Pets 2, take it the way Thanos nabbed those galactic Fruit Pastilles. In Ultimate it’s not worth the $30 in Feb leagues. It’s $59 and $63 in March and April. For that you’ll get your $600m+ BO, an 8+ IMDB score, 22 T5 points, and about 15 PTA points. But that means using up the majority of your slate on a single film. You instead could nab Toy Story 4, John Wick 3 and Aladdin, and potentially get more bang for your buck in everything besides BO. So choose wisely, and do consider that sometimes it pays to go for the wildcards instead of the obvious juggernaut.



Predictions for the weekend

1. Avengers: Endgame - $280m
2. Nothing
3. Else
4. Really
5. Matters


PTA: Endgame, White Crow, La Llorana, Shazam, Breakthrough

Next week Screen203 riffles through the leftovers that are Long Shot, The Intruder, and Uglydolls, as well as limited releases Bolden and Meeting Gorbachev

[Buscemi2]

Early word on The White Crow isn't so good. But the combination of Fiennes, David Hare, and the subject of Nureyev should lead to an okay result (that Judi Dench spy film last week had dreadful reviews but decent box office in limited release).

[W]

I'm certain I've seen more trailers for The White Crow than Avengers. Did they play any Endgame trailers in the theaters?

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Marvel's Avengers: The White Crow sounds like the next movie anyway

[Shrykespeare]

JUST HAD TO POST THIS.

[Shrykespeare]

Theater counts:

Avengers: Endgame - 4,662
The White Crow - 5


Next week:

Uglydolls - 3,600+
Long Shot - 3,100
The Intruder - 2,700

[Buscemi2]

Uglydolls is getting a massive push in NYC. I went on the MSG tour this morning and the place was plastered with Uglydolls ads. A $20 million opening is possible.

Meanwhile, Long Shot was previewed last night at the theatre I saw High Life at and there was a long line for it. I think this will do well also.

And since it wasn't included in our game, it looks like I can't bring up how I've seen almost nothing for El Chicano. I don't think it goes wide in the end.

[Shrykespeare]

From the "huh-how-about-that" department...

The #1 movie on Thursday, April 25, was Captain Marvel, $1.3M.

(Endgame's Thursday totals will roll over into Friday.)

[Buscemi2]

Either they were catching up or they really love that cat.

[Shrykespeare]

Friday Estimates

Avengers: Endgame, $156.7M
Captain Marvel, $2.5M
La Llorona, $2.5M
Breakthrough, $2.0M
Shazam!, $1.5M
Little, $1M




Weekend Projections:

Avengers: Endgame, $370M
Captain Marvel, $8.4M
La Llorona, $7.8M
Breakthrough, $6.4M
Shazam!, $6M
Dumbo, $4M
Little, $3.5M
Penguins, $1.6M
Pet Sematary, $1.3M
Us, $1.3M

[NicodemustheSage]

.... PLEASE. It's a flerken.

--Nico.

[undeadmonkey]

That’s insane numbers, only 50 films have made $350M in total. And Endgame does it in one weekend, I’d be shocked if it didn’t take down Avatar

[Buscemi2]

A+ Cinemascore. It should most definitely take down Avatar.

[Screen203]

The real question is how the other films in Endgame's way will be affected.

Of course, I'll be going over next week's releases in the next column.

[Shrykespeare]

Screen, let us know if you have any questions about the FY Draft. You will pick 11 and 12, so get ready to check in often to see if it's your turn. The early rounds tend to move VERY fast.