SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/22

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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/22

Post by numbersix »

There just ain’t no stopping that Cp’n from hopping. The incels and trolls must be furious at the success of fanny-fronted Captain Marvel, which held well in its second weekend, earning a tad under $68m for a cume of $264m. It’s looking like the MCU filler will earn over $850m worldwide, making it one of the franchise’s biggest hits. And the good news isn’t just for Disney, as both Wonder Park and Five Feet Apart opened above expectations. Everybody wins! Besides Warner Brothers, that is. So what’s up against the superlady this weekend?




T’was only 2 years ago when Get Out came out of nowhere to become a huge hit. Now, Jordan Peele is back, for Us (Universal), another elevated horror film. I’m going to avoid spoilers (wish someone in Variety cared about that, instead of filling its early review with a bunch of reveals), but basically it’s about an African-American family who find themselves tormented by a group of strange people. Lupita Nyongo and Winston Duke play the happy parents who must fight for their family.

The speed at which this film was made caused concern amongst fans of Get Out – was Peele moving too fast and risking an inferior film – the difficult second movie syndrome (see my thoughts on Sunset below). But that worry was quickly wiped out with a great teaser trailer. And then came the reviews out of SXSW, calling it another masterpiece. Evidently, Peele is going to strike gold again, with this film being highly anticipated. I’m expecting an impressive opening in the mid 50s. Its hold won’t be as strong as Get Out, partly due to Pet Sematary coming up in April, but still expect it to finish at the $150m. That makes it a steal in just about every round of both Ultimate and BO, so pick Us up right now.


Everyone else was too terrified to take on Us, and rightly so. All that’s left are three counter-programming limited options. All of which are equally flawed, so let’s take them all together.




Sunset (Sony Classics) is a dream-like period film set during a key moment in Hungary’s history, as is directed by Lazlo Nemes.




Hotel Mumbai (Bleecker St) is a dramatic thriller based on the true account of a terrorist attack on an Indian hotel.



And Ramen Shop is a Singaporean/Japanese film, released by Strand, about a young man who looks into the past of his parents, and goes on a culinary quest.


All of these films in theory could be arthouse darlings, particularly as all featured in major festivals. Yet, there are problems with all three. Reviews have been somewhat muted. For Sunset you’d think the latest film by the director of the stunning Son of Saul would generate massive interest, but the film’s long length and languid pace has earned it a 54% RT score. Hotel Mumbai has some star power (Dev Patel and Armie Hammer) but reviewers have questioned whether the film is just exploiting tragedy for entertainment. And Ramen Shop could be a crowd-pleaser but the buzz just isn’t there. The films range from $4 to $2 in Ultimate and even less in BO. But it’s unlikely any of them will be big earners. This weekend might see a few PTA points from Hotel Mumbai, just because of Bleecker’s push and that start factor. But next week’s Dumbo and The Beach Bum will surely overshadow it. So choose at your own risk.


Predictions for the weekend

1. Us - $55m
2. Captain Marvel - $37m
3. Wonder Park - $8.5m
4. Five Feet Apart - $7m
5. How To Train Your Dragon 3 - $5m


PTA: Us, The Mustang, Hotel Mumbai, Captain Marvel, Sunset

Next week Tranny takes on the aforementioned live(ish) action remake of Dumbo, as well as anti-abortion drama Unplanned, and limited release The Beach Bum.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/2

Post by Buscemi2 »

Universal's weekend wasn't so good either, with Captive State proving once again that we're Purged out. And yet, they're trying to redo it with October's The Hunt.

Speaking of Universal, I think Us will disappoint even with the critical praise and IMAX screens. There's something about the film that makes me think it won't connect with audiences (though it seems like what I thought would be the reveal is not the case, maybe I was looking too into the trailer).

I figured Sunset was doomed once Sony decided not to do a 70mm print to emphasize the 65mm cinematography (Apollo 11 didn't either but it got IMAX screens).

As for The Beach Bum, it looks like another flop for McConaughey. Neon hasn't really pushed it outside of a few sneak previews (weirdly placed on a Sunday morning) and reviews haven't been great. It's going to expand wide on April 5th but just feels like an excuse for Neon to make back how much they spent on it.

Lastly, I look forward to Tranny's takedown of Pure Flix's hope to make Evangelical exploitation a thing. Last time I checked, they don't watch R-rated movies unless it's The Passion of the Christ or American Sniper.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/2

Post by Screen203 »

I thought The Beach Bum came out this week?

Us will be huge on opening weekend at least. It should play as a sequel to Get Out, it has a great hook and a legitimentaly creepy trailer (and the preview always gets huge buzz when it comes on before other movies), and the reviews will only help.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/2

Post by transformers2 »

Great column per usual six. Completely agree with your Us prediction, although I think it could end up matching (or even slightly exceeding) Get Out's total BO if audiences respond to it with the same level of enthusiasm that critics have.


Screen: The Beach Bum was orginally slated to come out this week, but it got bumped back to the 29th in mid-January.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

Ah. Wasn't aware Beach Bum had moved. Again.


Celebrity Birthdays:

Luc Besson turned 60 on 3/18
Adam Levine turned 40 on 3/18
Lily Collins turned 30 on 3/18
Matthew Modine turns 60 on 3/22
Catherine Keener turns 60 on 3/23
Lake Bell turns 40 on 3/24
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/2

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Presales have US opening to ~$70M or so
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/2

Post by Buscemi2 »

Us is estimated to have made $6 million in Thursday night previews. How does this compare to some other big horror films?
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/2

Post by numbersix »

Some comparisons

Halloween: 7.7m
The Nun: 5.4m
A Quiet Place: 4.3m
It Chapter 1: 13.5m
Get Out: 1.8m

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

Us - 3,741
Hotel Mumbai - 4
Sunset - 3

Glroia Bell - 654



Next week:

Dumbo - 4,000
Unplanned - 1,000
The Beach Bum - Wide
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/2

Post by Buscemi2 »

Us is looking at a $27-28 million Friday and a $64-68 million weekend, according to Deadline. The Cinemascore was a B though (Get Out had an A-).
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday estimates:

Us, $29.1M
Captain Marvel, $9.2M
Five Feet Apart, $2.7M
Wonder Park, $2.2M
Dragon 3, $1.1M
Madea Funeral, $1.2M



ETA: Weekend Projections:

Us, $66M
Captain Marvel, $35.6M ($322M total)
Wonder Park, $9.4M
Five Feet Apart, $8.7M
Dragon 3, $6.8M
A Madea Funeral, $4.0M
Gloria Bell, $1.8M
No Manches Frida 2, $1.7M
Alita: Battle Angel, $1.0M
Captive State, $1.0M



PTA:
Us, $17.6K
Captain Marvel, $8.3K
The Mustang, $5.2K
The Aftermath, $4.4K

No word on the new indie releases yet.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/2

Post by Screen203 »

Seems like a great hold for Five Feet Apart. Being above Love, Simon's hold seems like a promising sign for it. It doesn't surprise me considering the crowd I saw it with reacted really positively to it.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/2

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Us, $70.2M
4 points - Captain Marvel, $35.0M
3 points - Wonder Park, $9.0M
2 points - Five Feet Apart, $8.7M
1 point - How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, $6.5M
Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral, $4.5M
Gloria Bell, $1.8M
No Manches Frida 2, $1.8M
The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, $1.1M
Alita: Battle Angel, $1.0M



PTA:
5 points - Hotel Mumbai, $21.6K
4 points - Us, $18.8K
3 points - Captain Marvel, $8.2K
2 points - The Mustang, $6.0K
1 point - Sunset, $5.0K

No word on Ramen Shop.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/2

Post by Buscemi2 »

Shazam! made $3.3 million in previews. Between this and positive early word (76 on Metacritic), this should bode very well for its box office potential.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/2

Post by Screen203 »

Shazam! had two showtimes for its sneaks instead of one. Not sure if this would have an effect on the number or not.
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