Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: January 18th-20th

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Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: January 18th-20th

Post by Buscemi2 »

“How can the same shit happen to the same guy twice?” – John McClane, Die Hard 2 (1990)

That might explain Bruce Willis always being so grumpy all the time. Between having to save the world so many times and deciding which funny hat to wear every time he visits David Letterman and his impressive beard, Bruce has no time for himself. And just when he’d thought he could take a few months off from his latest straight-to-VOD product, his old colleague M. Night Shyamalan calls him back to duty for a new project in Philadelphia. Bruce, being no stranger to the City of Brotherly Love, having traveled to save the future, to handle a case of a child who saw ghosts, and discover powers he never realized he had, wonders why Philadelphia needs him again.

And that brings us to a light schedule this weekend, with only a single wide release. But it’s a big one, perhaps the biggest in some time.

Last Week

The Upside proved to have some as despite negative reviews and a long stay on the shelf (it had premiered at Toronto two years ago), the remake of 2011’s The Intouchables had a $20.4 million weekend. Any way you slice it, it should be a nice return of investment for STX, who got the film post-Weinstein fallout. Second was the still-going Aquaman with $17.4 million. Its total gross stands at $287.9 million. Third was the first part of 2019’s doggomania, A Dog’s Way Home, taking in $11.3 million. Fourth was the other big comic book adaptation, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, bringing another $9.1 million ($147.8 million total). And finishing the Sony trifecta, Escape Room dropped to fifth, dropping 51% to bring in $8.9 million. On the Basis of Sex had a disappointing expansion, finishing eighth with $6.1 million while Replicas bombed out with $2.4 million.

On the PTA side, Cold War kept going with a $9,751 average in its fourth weekend, thanks to Amazon’s strategy of slow expansions and appeal to awards voters (if this were in English, Joanna Kulig would likely sneak into the Best Actress category at the Oscars). The Upside took second while third was Stan & Ollie, another one of the Academy’s favorite kind of movie, the film about entertainment. It had a PTA of $6,551 in its third weekend. The film expands wide on January 25th. Fourth was Destroyer while rounding out the top five was Aquaman.

This Week

A Pain in the “Glass”

The only game in town this weekend is Glass (Universal), the third installment of M. Night Shyamalan’s franchise of superheroes (of which I found out is called the Eastrail 177 trilogy) hiding beneath the shadows of mere mortals. And we might be here for a while in handling this recap.

The story begins in November 2000. As the nation was stuck in a Supreme Court battle that would determine a new President and the next four years, M. Night Shyamalan was riding high. His last film, The Sixth Sense, had been one of the biggest horror films of all-time and was nominated for Best Picture. In just over a year after that summer surprise, Shyamalan already had a new film that reteamed him with his Sixth Sense star, Bruce Willis, along with fellow big star Samuel L. Jackson. Audiences hoped for a new horror or thriller and Disney certainly marketed it as such. But on the 22nd of that month, audiences were surprised to find that Unbreakable was actually a deconstruction of the mythology of superheroes. Filmgoers who expected another “I see dead people” were disappointed (the film had a C Cinemascore) and though the film made a stellar $95 million at the box office (plus $153 million internationally), it was considered a financial disappointment as it did not hit the numbers that The Sixth Sense had. However, Unbreakable would find a reappraisal on home video and the exploits of David Dunn and Elijah Price would find an audience for years to come.

And with this success led to plans for a sequel. Shyamalan spent many years trying to get another film made but the decline of his own career combined with Disney’s lack of interest led the project to go into turnaround. Universal picked up the project and plans were made for a 2011 release via an umbrella called The Night Chronicles but disappointing box office on the Shyamalan-scripted Devil killed those plans. Finally, after several personal and critical failures, Shyamalan seemingly got his mojo back with a Jason Blum production, The Visit, in 2015. Interest in the sequel became renewed but a roadblock still remained: getting the film financed.

With a scaled-down plan, Shyamalan put up the $9 million budget himself and got a distribution deal in place with Blumhouse to make Split. After Joaquin Phoenix pulled out of the project, James McAvoy starred in this psychological thriller about a man with dissociative identity disorder who kidnaps a group of teenage girls and subjects them to his own madness. One of the girls, Casey, was raised as a survivalist and must defeat he and his forms before The Beast is unleashed.

So where does the Unbreakable connection come in? If you haven’t seen it, the marketing for the new film probably spoiled it by now. Back to the story, this film also opened during a turbulent time in recent American history but film history did not repeat itself. Audiences enjoyed Split and its reveal connecting to the events of Unbreakable. A B+ Cinemascore led to a $138 million domestic gross and another $140 million internationally. Shyamalan was on top of the world again and after his $9 million gamble, the further adventures of David Dunn and Mr. Glass, plus The Beast for good measure, can finally become a cinematic reality. The only major obstacle that remained was Disney still owning some rights to the Unbreakable characters but they got the all-important international rights in exchange for the use of said characters.

And this Friday, the follow-up that’s taken 19 years to arrive will finally hit movie screens, even in some IMAX theatres. This third chapter will focus on David’s pursuit of The Beast as both escape from a mental institution designed to contain them and their untold powers. Mr. Glass, also in the institution, serves as a figure who holds secrets to both that can support or destroy them. Returning from Unbreakable are Willis, Jackson, Charlayne Woodard, and Spencer Treat Clark. Returning from Split are McAvoy and Anya Taylor-Joy. New to the cast is Sarah Paulson.

Seeing how big Split was, you would think there would be a massive amount of anticipation for this one. But early word has been cool (45 on Metacritic) and tracking has fallen massively in recent days. Previously expected to open in the $70-75 million range, it might struggle to hit $50 million for its three-day. I feel that much like last month’s Aquaman, this might be a film that’s going to be dependent on word-of-mouth. As we recall, Aquaman got mixed reviews but audiences have mostly enjoyed the film and it’s still in the top three. I can’t see Glass doing that well, especially with Shyamalan’s divisive nature over how his films end. It will still make money (enough that Universal may regret losing international rights) but don’t expect any new records broken.

I’ll say Glass opens to $47 million for three-day, $55 million for four-day, and a final gross of $118 million.

Arthouse Class 101

No class. Teacher work day.

Box Office: Glass, The Upside, Aquaman, A Dog’s Way Home, Spider-Man
PTA: Glass, Cold War, Stan & Ollie, Destroyer, The Upside

Next week, Six takes on two wide releases, The Kid Who Would Be King (Fox) and Serenity (No, Not the Ship but a Vessel) (Aviron), and one limited release, The Invisibles (Greenwich).

Do not touch. - Willie
Last edited by Buscemi2 on January 30th, 2019, 9:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: January 18th-20th

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Glass should open to at least 50 million. Buzz on the film seems high, despite the reviews.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: January 18th-20th

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Despite the reviews, fans of Split will surely want to see this. WOM will kill it. Some were thinking a 70m 4-day and 160m cume. I'm think $60m for the 4-day and 110m in total.

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: January 18th-20th

Post by Chienfantome »

This weekend Spider-verse will almost catch-up on Mary Poppins, and if it does not succeed by sunday, then it will be done in the next few days I think.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: January 18th-20th

Post by Walleye413 »

Finally saw Spider-Verse and it really is amazing. Cool animation style, creative story, and the best Soundtrack of the year. I'm a fan.

My girls saw Mary Poppins, and everyone I've talked to that has seen it has loved it. I know on here we've sniped that there aren't any memorable songs, etc. But from everyone I know who has seen it they've really loved it. Not sure why it isn't doing as well as we thought. Or maybe, 175 million for a Musical - any musical - is going to be a max.

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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: January 18th-20th

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I think waiting 54 years to do a sequel and then giving it the exact same plot as Christopher Robin has something to do with it not being the big hit that was expected.

On a related note, am I the only one who's noticed The Lego Movie 2 having a similar plot to the second SpongeBob movie?
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: January 18th-20th

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater Counts:

Glass - 3,841



Next week:

The Kid Who Would Be King - 3,400
Serenity - 2,500


Funny - I saw tons of trailers for Serenity a couple months ago, but NOTHING since then. And not one TV spot either.




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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: January 18th-20th

Post by Buscemi2 »

I only have seen one trailer for Serenity.

On the other hand, Fighting with My Family has been on everything I've seen, it seems like (along The Lego Movie 2: Emmet Out of Water).
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: January 18th-20th

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Buscemi2 wrote:I only have seen one trailer for Serenity.

On the other hand, Fighting with My Family has been on everything I've seen, it seems like (along The Lego Movie 2: Emmet Out of Water).
Haven't seen any marketing for Serenity. I see the trailers for Breakthrough and Miss Bala a lot though.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: January 18th-20th

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascore:

Glass: B
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: January 18th-20th

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday estimates

Glass, $16M
The Upside, $4.2M
Aquaman, $2.5M
Dragon Ball Super, $2.4M (?!?!?)
Spider-Man, $1.8M
Dog's Way Home, $1.7M
Escape Room, $1.5M
Mary Poppins, $1.2M
Bumblebee, $1.1M
Basis of Sex, $1.1M



Projections:

Glass, $41.4M
The Upside, $15.1M
Aquaman, $10.9M (cracks $300M!)
Spider-Man, $8M
Dog's Way Home, $7.9M
Mary Poppins, $5.4M
Escape Room, $5.1M
Bumblebee, $4.9M
Basis of Sex, $3.9M
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: January 18th-20th

Post by Buscemi2 »

Broly opened on Wednesday and made $10.5 million in its first two days. We've been talking about it in the Division A waiver wire thread.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: January 18th-20th

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Don't understand what makes this Dragon-Ball thing a bigger deal than the other speciality events that NCM does.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: January 18th-20th

Post by Buscemi2 »

National Cinemedia didn't release this one. Funimation put it out themselves (apparently with some promotional help from Fox), much like they did Your Name. Had NCM released this one, it wouldn't have gotten over 1,200 theatres for the weekday shows (a little over a third kept the film for the weekend).

And this isn't the first Dragon Ball anime to do well. Resurrection F made $8 million in a short run back in 2015.

In other news, it looks like Replicas could have one of the biggest second week drops ever. Friday's PTA was $63, down 86% from last Friday (of course, it's down to one matinee showing at many theatres and word-of-mouth's been terrible so this was probably expected).
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: January 18th-20th

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Glass, $40.6M
4 points - The Upside, $15.7
Dragon Ball Super: Broly, $10.7M
2 points - Aquaman, $10.3M
1 point - Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, $7.3M
A Dog's Way Home, $7.1M
Escape Room, $5.3M
Mary Poppins Returns, $5.2M
Bumblebee, $4.7M
On the Basis of Sex, $4.0M



PTA:
5 points - Glass
4 points - Cold War
3 points - The Upside
2 points - Stan & Ollie
1 point - Destroyer
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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