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Walleye's Weekly Winners - Thanksgiving Stuffing!

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Walleye's Weekly Winners - Thanksgiving Stuffing!

Postby Walleye413 » November 20th, 2018, 12:09 am

It's a busy week - so how about an early column :)

I feel like a little piece of my childhood is crumbling. The magic of Harry Potter waned quite a bit this past weekend, taking in a mere 62 million at the American Box Office this past weekend. While the movie will make a profit from worldwide sales - there will be much hand-wringing and second guessing over the missteps of Fantastic Beasts and look Dumbledore is in this one! It was a fairly disappointing weekend all around however as the well loved Instant Family came in on the low end of expectations, to be followed by the much less loved and worse received Widows. Even Green Book failed to make a splash - although there’s some hope for that one over the 5 day coming up. The Grinch held well - but will it hold up against the power of every single Disney Princess alive?? Oh, his little heart can grow all it wants but it won’t withstand Ralph and the ladies.

Ralph Breaks the Internet is our big gun this week one of the 4-5 anchor movies you could choose in this season. Mary Poppins is clearly the best one coming, and Aquaman seems to be gaining traction. But for many of us it was really a debate between the Grinch, Fantastic Beasts, and Ralph for your slates. If you chose the Grinch I think you chose wisely. If you waited until Ralph - well I think it’ll do better than the aforementioned FB, but it won’t be a sure-fire slate winner. I loved the original Ralph, but it’s important to remember it “only” made 189 million. Sure, sequels will often go bigger, but in animated fare that’s not always the case, and I think that’s possibly what we’ve got here. The crowds will be ever so slightly bigger as I predict a 3 day of 55 million (5 day of 80 million) as this one caps out just under 200 million. That’ll still mean a lot of PTA and Top 5 points due to the lack of competition for the next several weeks. But after a record-breaking October all these November offerings seem a little meh.

A much better option might be Creed 2. I will say I loved, yes loved, the first Creed. The direction by Ryan Coogler is genius, and Michael B Jordan is a star. Throw in Sly Stallone doing some of his best work, plus Tessa Thompson, come on. Creed surprised with a 100+ million haul, so expectations on this one are higher than the original, although still a little muted I think for such a property. Maybe that’s because Coogler isn’t directing (seriously, so disappointed when I heard that.) But I think the good will of the last one - plus Drago(!) will be enough to make this one of the few surprise hits of November. Creed 2 will get you 35 million over the 3 day, 45ish million for the 5 day. And should clear 100 million with some decent legs. Add on some decent PTA and top 5 numbers, I’d say this is about as good a mid-level pick that you’ll find in the game.

Can we talk about Robin Hood? Is anything ever going to be better than Kevin Costner and the best supporting cast outside of Sherwood Forrest? Nope. This entry from Taron Egerton isn’t going to do it. Boy, at some point someone is going to figure out how to reboot Camelot/Robin Hood/Zorro/etc. But dang it sure hasn’t happened lately. Avoid this bomb on it’s way to a 10 million dollar 3 day - low teens for 5 day, and not much else. Bummer.

Expanding wide you’ve got Front Runner and Green Book. If you already have them on your slates - too bad. They’re not going to do well. Sorry. I really am too, I think I picked both of them.

In limited release we’ve got several decent options. My luck on the PTA front has been abysmal lately so word to wise, everything I suggest you should do the exact opposite!

Like don’t pick The Favourite. Because the latest from Yorgos Lanthimos (say that 10 times fast) is going to be the Indie darling of the weekend. More accessible than The Lobster and the Killing of the Sacred Deer, this will clean up this weekend and next before it starts to expand in hopes of some Oscar love. At $5 in most leagues it’ll cost you, but it’ll be worth it. I’ve grabbed it with both hands.

Equally tempting will be Shoplifters - Japan’s pick for Oscar noms this year. A very original tale about a family of shoplifters (hence the title) that take in an abandoned teenager seems terribly unique for the genre. It’s cheap, and on only a few screens. The IMDB score rocks, and it’ll get a few PTA for sure. Someone should take this.

Becoming Astrid is a Swedish language film about the author of Pippi Longstocking (as well as other books). I fully expect Shryke to choose this movie and if he doesn’t I’ll be sorely disappointed. It looks quite lovely, has a great IMDB score as well, and is pretty darn cheap in the game. I’m picking Astrid as the odd woman out - which means it’s destined for greatness. Join Shryke - pick this movie.

That’s all for now. Next week there’s nothing. Garbage. We can re-run this column and see how bad I was.

Top 5
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Creed 2
Fantastic Beasts
The Grinch
Instant Family


PTA
The Favourite
Ralph
Shoplifters
Creed 2
Becoming Astrid
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Thanksgiving Stuffing!

Postby Buscemi2 » November 20th, 2018, 12:14 am

It's been six years since the last Wreck-It Ralph. Sure, it's going to make money but is it going to play outside of those that loved the first film?

And I'm not getting the expansion of The Front Runner. This has been a bomb in limited release and does anyone care about Jason Reitman anymore? His dad at least was able to give us good things after Stripes.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Thanksgiving Stuffing!

Postby Shrykespeare » November 20th, 2018, 12:17 pm

For the record, I picked Astrid only because I had $4 left to spend and two spots to fill. I had to avail myself of the two remaining $2 films. Here's hoping I can find the pot at the end of the rainbow. I mean the pot of gold. Ahem.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Thanksgiving Stuffing!

Postby numbersix » November 20th, 2018, 1:22 pm

The thing about Ralph 2 is that a lot of the kids who watched the first will probably now revere gaming references even more than before! Its only competition is Sherry Bobbins and maybe Aquaman, but this skews younger. Also, for Ultimate this is pretty much guaranteed 15 T5 points if not more, so it's probably the best value in that game.

Walleye, you're rightly wrong on The Favourite - think it's the perfect film for the game. Great reviews, and probably won't expand too much in the coming weeks (hopefully). Shoplifters looks like it's out in a few more theatres this week, which is a shame, but there's little competition next week (advance plug for my column!) so it's still a solid pick.

I'm not sure if Creed II will surpass Creed, as much as my Full Year Draft needs it. The Russia/Drago thing is certainly a draw, but I'm thinking more $20m 3-day and 80m cume. The Mule will take the older audience away from it too.

Predictions

1. Ralph Breaks the Internet - 50m (75 5-day)
2. Fantastic Beasts - 30m
3. Creed 2 - 22m (40m 5-day)
4. The Grinch - 21m
5. Bohemien Rhapsody - 10m


PTA: The Favourite, Shoplifters, Ralph, Beasts, Creed
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Thanksgiving Stuffing!

Postby undeadmonkey » November 20th, 2018, 1:52 pm

I really enjoyed Fantastic Beasts 2 as to where i just thought the first one was ok. While I liked that the story is back to the history and lore of harry potter, i get peoples complaints about it feeling 'been there, done that' which i think is mainly contributed by the directing being exactly the same as the last 5 movies. I doubt WB are rethinking their 5 movies, though maybe this could allow them to get some new blood in the directors chair.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Thanksgiving Stuffing!

Postby Shrykespeare » November 20th, 2018, 9:42 pm

Please don't say Sherrie Bobbins. I already can't think of Mary Poppins without picturing that truly awful, awful Simpsons episode.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Thanksgiving Stuffing!

Postby Shrykespeare » November 20th, 2018, 11:13 pm

Theater Counts:

Ralph Breaks the Internet - 4,017
Creed 2 - 3,441
Robin Hood - 2,700
The Favourite - 4





Celebrity Birthdays:

Richard Masur turned 70 on 11/20
Nadine Velasquez turned 40 on 11/20
Jamie Lee Curtis turns 60 on 11/22
Katherine Heigl turns 40 on 11/24
Jill Hennessy turns 50 on 11/25
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Thanksgiving Stuffing!

Postby Buscemi2 » November 21st, 2018, 12:15 am

Shrykespeare wrote:Please don't say Sherrie Bobbins. I already can't think of Mary Poppins without picturing that truly awful, awful Simpsons episode.


Don't tell me you think the "Homer is Kurt Cobain" episode is better.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Thanksgiving Stuffing!

Postby numbersix » November 21st, 2018, 4:00 am

Not even this?

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Thanksgiving Stuffing!

Postby Buscemi2 » November 21st, 2018, 4:02 am

I've always been partial to this bit.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Thanksgiving Stuffing!

Postby Shrykespeare » November 24th, 2018, 8:12 pm

Friday Results

Ralph Breaks the Internet, $21.7M, $50.5M 3-day
Creed 2, $14.1M, $34.6M 3-day
Fantastic Beasts, $11.8M
The Grinch, $11.6M
Bohemian Rhapsody, $5.2M
Instant Family, $4.6M
Robin Hood, $3.4M, $8.5M 3-day


Other news:

The Favourite debuted to $190K in 4 theaters ($47K 1-day)
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Thanksgiving Stuffing!

Postby Buscemi2 » November 24th, 2018, 8:22 pm

The Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz fans (does Broadchurch have a following here in the States?) definitely had a Favourite this weekend.

I'll see myself out.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Thanksgiving Stuffing!

Postby Shrykespeare » November 25th, 2018, 3:17 pm

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Ralph Breaks the Internet, $55.7M ($84.4M 5-day)
4 points - Creed 2, $35.3M ($55.8M 5-day)
3 points - Dr. Seuss' The Grinch, $30.2M
2 points - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, $29.6M
1 point - Bohemian Rhapsody, $13.9M
Instant Family, $12.5M
Robin Hood, $9.1M ($14.2M 5-day)
Widows, $8.0M
Green Book, $5.4M
A Star is Born, $3.0M



PTA:
5 points - The Favourite, $105K
4 points - Shoplifters, $17.6K
3 points - Ralph Breaks the Internet, $13.8K
2 points - Creed 2, $10.2K
1 point - Dr. Seuss' The Grinch, $7.6K

Becoming Astrid only managed a PTA of $1,707.





Observations/Predictions:

1. Ralph beat out Moana's 5-day opening, and that film went on to $250M.

2. Creed barely broke $100M. Creed 2 will slaughter that number.

3. The Grinch is looking at $250M easily.

4. Can Fantastic Beasts makie it to $200M? I have my doubts.

5. Bohemian Rhapsody is stil on pace for $180M.

6. A Star is Born cracked $190M. It will take a load of Oscar noms and a vast reexpansion to make it to $200M, but I'm not worried about this happening.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Thanksgiving Stuffing!

Postby numbersix » November 25th, 2018, 6:36 pm

Will be very interesting to see how The Favourite plays. It still feels niche, as that's just Lanthimos, but think it can hit $15m in total.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - Thanksgiving Stuffing!

Postby Buscemi2 » November 25th, 2018, 8:25 pm

Americans, mainly women, love Victorian era stories for some reason (maybe it's a fantasy thing, guys have comic book heroes and the military, ladies have royalty). And Emma Stone is well-liked.

I think it can hit $30 million.

In other news, unofficial (since Netflix doesn't report box office) estimates have Roma averaging $66,000 per theatre. Too bad those averages will tank once it officially hits the site (which will also be when the film expands to other cities).
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