Look! An Undead Movie Column... (New Releases of 11/16/18)

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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undeadmonkey
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Look! An Undead Movie Column... (New Releases of 11/16/18)

Post by undeadmonkey »

in which we we judge christmasy people from on high. Christmasy people whose heads aren't screwed on just right, perhaps, their shoes are too tight.

The Grinch is my hero, no holiday deserves to be celebrated for 1/5th of the year (Canadians actually have their thanksgiving early october, and there have been some people who have had their lights up since, that's almost a quarter of the year). Box office wise, i'm actually a little disappointed that The Grinch-$67M didn't overachieve this weekend, however it should hold decently throughout the dreadful season, even with Ralph on it's heels. Overlord-$10M couldnt get much of the Call of Duty crowd to come out, It however opened much better than The Girl in the Spider's Web: A New Dragon Tattoo Story-$7M. Maybe you should have gone with that sequel afterall, Sony, but looking at your titleing skills, maybe there was just no hope to begin with.

Star Rhapsody had a much better hold than I anticipated, hitting $100M in it's second week and A Bohemian is Born will be here till it takes home all the Oscars next February.

On the limited side, The Front Runner, well, was first (but only if you don't count the grinch). El Angel was close behind.

Will be covering the new releases towmorrow.

until then...

"PoohPooh to the Whos!"
Last edited by undeadmonkey on November 14th, 2018, 2:31 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column... (New Releases of 11/16/1

Post by Buscemi2 »

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It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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undeadmonkey
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column... (New Releases of 11/16/1

Post by undeadmonkey »

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros)

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Film Potential
People are calling for the demise of the Harry Potter franchise. 'First Rotten rated movie of the franchise', ooooo. Headlines be they as they may, I'm sure the movie will be fine, guaranteeing another sequel. and hey if by some way, the movie absolutely bombs, then it'll only be another 6 years before Netflix does a Harry Potter reboot. This time S.P.E.W, will get their due!

Game Potential
As far as the game, i chose to go with The Grinch, as my anchor, but if you do find some way to fit both onto your slate, it can't hurt.

Storyline
In an effort to thwart Grindelwald's plans, Albus Dumbledore enlists his former student Newt Scamander, who agrees to help, unaware of the dangers that lie ahead. Lines are drawn as love and loyalty are tested, even among the truest friends and family, in an increasingly divided wizarding world.

Crew
Directed by David Yates
Starring Eddie Redmayne, Katherine Waterston, Dan Fogler, Alison Sudol, Ezra Miller, Zoë Kravitz, Callum Turner, Claudia Kim, William Nadylam, Kevin Guthrie, Jude Law, and Johnny Depp

I’ll predict a $70M OW and $220M overall.


Widows (Fox)

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Film Potential
When i first saw the trailer, it seemed like a very sleek entertaining thriller with potential to break out. However it seems like it never caught on, looks like it'll pull decent numbers, but will probably be forgotten by Christmas.

Game Potential
It's not too expensive, so again, wont hurt to have this on your slate. Should pull in a few numbers in all categories.


Storyline

Set in contemporary Chicago, amidst a time of turmoil, four women with nothing in common accept a debt left behind by their dead husbands' criminal activities, take fate into their own hands, and conspire to forge a future on their own terms.

Crew
Directed by Steve McQueen
Starring Viola Davis, Michelle Rodriguez, Elizabeth Debicki, Cynthia Erivo, Colin Farrell, Brian Tyree Henry, Daniel Kaluuya, Jacki Weaver, Carrie Coon, Robert Duvall, and Liam Neeson

I’ll predict a $14M OW and $40M overall.

Instant Family (Paramount)

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Film Potential
Mark Whalberg continues his march to being the front runner to play George Newton in a Beethoven reboot. While Instant Family doesn't give him a foil to play off against ala will ferrel in daddys home. It should still be able to carve out a little niche of family christmas movie money.

Game Potential
There's not much here. I wouldnt have it on my slate, there are other choices with much better upside.

Storyline
When Pete (Mark Wahlberg) and Ellie (Rose Byrne) decide to start a family, they stumble into the world of foster-care adoption. They hope to take in one small child but when they meet three siblings, including a rebellious 15-year-old girl (Isabela Moner), they find themselves speeding from zero to three kids overnight and trying to learn the ropes of instant parenthood in the hopes of becoming a family.

Crew
Directed by Sean Anders
Starring Mark Wahlberg, Rose Byrne, Isabela Moner, Margo Martindale, Julie Hagerty, Tig Notaro, and Octavia Spencer

I’ll predict a $17M OW and $90M overall.


Doesn't look like we have anything opening limited this weekend, A Private War (2018) looks to be opening in 800. so don't take. Too little for Box office coin and too much for PTA.

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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column... (New Releases of 11/16/1

Post by W »

Widows is getting great reviews and may be a player come Oscar time. Not opening limited with this many big movies hurts it game-wise, though. I don’t think it’ll be forgotten by Christmas, but it’ll have to have great legs and keep a high IMDb to have any impact.
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column... (New Releases of 11/16/1

Post by Buscemi2 »

But remember how IMDb will downvote most anything with a black lead.

I'm beginning to wonder why Widows wasn't scheduled at Christmas. Fox only has the Deadpool 2 reissue scheduled for December while this month has both this one and The Favourite. Also, I'm sure that there's going to be some people who don't want to see a Mary Poppins sequel or loud action films during the holidays.

I can't see Fantastic Beasts 2 holding that well. General reception hasn't been as good and I think Warner Bros. is beginning to realize that trying to expand Harry Potter outside of Harry Potter without having books released first (the book J.K. Rowling wrote for Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them was a novelization) wasn't the best of ideas. I just hope they don't remake the original films with all of Rowling's revisions (how did they come to the decision that the first novel took place in the 80's?).

As for Instant Family, does anyone else view this as Mark Wahlberg's version of Darkest Hour? Not film quality, of course, but the whole film comes off as Wahlberg telling audiences "Guys, I'm not racist anymore!".
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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numbersix
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column... (New Releases of 11/16/1

Post by numbersix »

Green Book is opening limited this weekend, and boy is that a film with some interesting potential.

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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column... (New Releases of 11/16/1

Post by Chienfantome »

How can you predict, UDM, that Instant Family will gather $90M at the box-office, and say that it's not worth it in the game ? Either you think it's gonna be a crazily good season in terms of box-office, or you haven't seen how much the film cost in the game (between $10 and $12), or you're even worse in math than I am (and I'm really not good !). Or you don't believe in your own prediction.
But a film that costs $10 or $12 and could bank $90M is close to a must-have in my book this season in the BO competition.
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column... (New Releases of 11/16/1

Post by Shrykespeare »

That's right, UDM, you forgot Green Book. Which is looking like a PTA monster at this point.
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undeadmonkey
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column... (New Releases of 11/16/1

Post by undeadmonkey »

odd, sorry about that. i totally did not see Green Book on the Mojo release schedule, so i assumed it came out last week.

as for Instant Family, the holds are purely based on how other types of christmas family movies perform at this time of the year, so it's not guaranteed, plus it'll have next to nothing in all the other categories.

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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column... (New Releases of 11/16/1

Post by numbersix »

Fantastic Beasts reminds me of The Hobbit Pt 2 - it may be a huge franchise but there are limits to what people will endure. Especially with another "quirky" Johnny Depp performance. It may not even make $200m

1. Fantastic Beasts 2 - $68m
2. The Grinch - $35m
3. Instant Family - $17m
4. Bohemian Rhapsody - $16m
5. Widows - $14

PTA: Green Book, FB2, The Grinch, Instant Family, Front Runner

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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column... (New Releases of 11/16/1

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater Counts

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald - 4,163
Instant Familly - 3,286
Widows - 2,803
Green Book - 25
The Last Race - n/a



Next week:

Ralph Breaks the Internet - 3,800
Creed 2 - 3,350
Robin Hood - 2,700
Green Book (expansion) - 1,000
The Front Runner (expansion) - 500
The Favourite - 4





Celebs with Milestone Birthdays:

Megan Mullally turned 60 on 11/12
Marg Helgenberger tuns 60 on 11/16
Mary Elizabeth Mastrantonio turns 60 on 11/17
Rachel McAdams turns 40 on 11/17
Tom Ellis turns 40 on 11/17
Zoe Bell turns 40 on 11/17
Kara Heyward turns 20 on 11/17
Owen Wilson turns 50 on 11/18
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Walleye413
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column... (New Releases of 11/16/1

Post by Walleye413 »

Wow Rachel McAdams is 40. Remember when she was the new it girl and in about 14 movies in one year? Crazy how time flies.

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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column... (New Releases of 11/16/1

Post by Buscemi2 »

Early estimates (cobbled from multiple sources):

Fantastic Beasts 2 $27 million Friday, $75 million weekend (B+ Cinemascore)
Widows $5.5 million Friday, $11-13 million weekend (B Cinemascore)
Instant Family $5 million, $11-13 million weekend (A Cinemascore)

Comments:
- I guess Potterheads just can't let go of this franchise. The Kingsley Shacklebolt/Seamus Finnegan and Hufflepuff House movies that are bound to happen should be exciting. :roll:
- Ouch for Widows with that Cinemascore. It might sadly get studios to rethink black-aimed films (watch the inevitable hot takes claiming this would have been more successful with Chris Pratt and Jennifer Lawrence starring).
- Mark Wahlberg's been in a slump but Instant Family could get to $60 million. However, it wouldn't be surprising to eventually see him be the next big name (after Sandler and Jennifer Aniston) to exclusively go to Netflix in a few years, especially with Paramount announcing a new arrangement with them.
Last edited by Buscemi2 on November 17th, 2018, 7:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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numbersix
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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column... (New Releases of 11/16/1

Post by numbersix »

I suspect the Widows Cinemascore is due to the tendency to sell arthouse films with thriller aspects as straight thrillers, inevitably disappoitning audiences. Killing Them Softly did not deserve an F cinemascore

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Re: Look! An Undead Movie Column... (New Releases of 11/16/1

Post by Walleye413 »

numbersix wrote:I suspect the Widows Cinemascore is due to the tendency to sell arthouse films with thriller aspects as straight thrillers, inevitably disappoitning audiences. Killing Them Softly did not deserve an F cinemascore
Yeah this,
Even as a pretty up-to-date cinema guy when I spend my hard earned cash on a movie that is dramatically different than what it was billed as I get pissed. Especially if I've brought my wife or kids along. I appreciate good advertising, and the studio lure to actually make a profit but be wary of the backlash if you play too fast and loose with your product.

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