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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/19

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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/19

Postby numbersix » October 17th, 2018, 3:18 am

It’s horror time. Well, it was last week for Damien “Curse-You-Moonlight” Chazelle when he saw the box office figures and realised his latest had been beaten twice to the top, and nearly rivalled by a kids horror sequel. But this week has something a little different: endless laughter.




If you think Halloween (Universal) is following in the footsteps of other holiday-themed movies as an anthology of romantic stories, well you’d be right. Yes, Jamie Lee Curtis has spent her whole life waiting for the return of the man of her dreams, good ol Mike. The producer even hired a comedian (Danny McBride) to write it, who reteams with buddy David Gordon Green (Pineapple Express) to direct.

Seriously, though, while most horror remakes of this century had a significant ceiling that slowly dropped with each bumbled attempt at resurrecting a tired franchise, something changed. That something was last year’s It, which cashed in on 90s nostalgia and Stranger Things adoration to blow expectations out of the water. Halloween seems to be riding that film’s coat-tails, and the impressive trailer did even more to lure cinemagoers into Michael Myer’s layer of reboots. Reviews have been mostly positive, which certainly helps. So how well with this film fare? Other films have fled like scantily-clad women screeching through the forest. This film will be huge, not It huge, but predictions of an opening in the 50s might be too conservative. This could blow past 60m over the opening 3 days and hit nearly 150m. That will also get you 13 T5 points, 3-5 PTA points, and low 7s IMDB score. Ranging from $11-18 across the various leagues, grab this one and stab it right in the face, as it’s probably the best mid-range film since A Quiet Place.

That’s it for wide releases (The Hate U Give is going wide this weekend, but probably won’t be a Top 5 film), but there are 4 indie movies coming out to hack away at Mike’s PTA potential.




Can you Ever Forgive Me is one of Fox Searchlight's prestige pics for the awards season. Melissa McCarthy holds in the farts to instead play it straight. She plays Lee Israel, the real-life biographer who took to becoming a master forger. Directed by Marielle Heller and written by Nicole Holofcener, this film has been getting raves across the fests. It may not go fully wide, but expect McCarthy to get lots of awards for not turning that frown upside down. Depending on how aggressively it expands, expect around 10 PTA points and a solid IMDB score (currently high 6s because its users hate women). It’s $4 in Ultimate and worth every unforged buck. Its $2 BO price tag is riskier but could be worth it.




Mid 90s (A24) is next in line. We do love our 90s nostalgia, don’t we (fuck you, world, the 90s isn’t old!)? This film is Jonah Hill’s directorial debut. Inspired by his childhood, it depicts a young teenager growing up in 90s LA, negotiating violent life at home while hanging with his gang of skater-boyz. What’s with the comedians not being funny this week? Although let’s be honest: Melissa McCarthy was never really funny. This film feels more modest, but good reviews and A24’s might just may make this a solid PTA earner, but probably not as much as CYEFM. 6-7 PTA points and a low 7 IMDB score isn’t bad at all.




Struck in the middle is poor old What They Had, Bleecker Street’s drama about a family dealing with their aged mother. It’s another film with strong festival buzz and a solid cast (Michael Shannon, Hilary Swank), but in this competitive week it’s just not strong enough. Skip it.




Finally, The Guilty (Magnolia) is a Danish thriller about a disgraced cop who works at an emergency services call centre, only to get embroiled in a kidnapping that he decides to solve. It won’t get you anything in the game, so I can’t even recommend this $2 movie. But you should go see it, as it’s one of the year’s best films.



Predictions for the weekend

1. Halloween - $70m
2. A Star is Born - $19m
3. Venom - $17m
4. First Man- $8m
5. Goosebumps 2- $8m

PTA: Can You Ever Forgive Me, Mid 90s, Beautiful Boy, Halloween, What They Had

Next week Walleye takes a peek at Hunter Killer, Indivisible, and Johnny English Strikes Again, as well as limited releases Suspiria and Burning.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby Buscemi2 » October 17th, 2018, 8:28 am

I saw that Mid90's is supposed to expand wide next week. I'm not expecting a total bomb that gets its expansion canceled like The Oath did but it could very well be a one-and-done if said expansion is to the usual 600 theatres.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby Walleye413 » October 17th, 2018, 7:04 pm

Six your write ups make me laugh every time. Seriously clever stuff my friend.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby Shrykespeare » October 18th, 2018, 8:12 pm

Theater counts:

Halloween - 3,928
Can You Ever Forgive Me? - 5
Mid90s - 4
What They Had - 4

The Hate U Give - 2,303 (expansion)
The Old Man & The Gun - 802 (expansion)


Next week:

Hunter Killer - 2,600
Johnny English Strikes Again - 500 (fuuuuuuu.....)




Celebrity Birthdays:

Tim Robbins turned 60 on 10/16
Margot Kidder would have turned 70 on 10/17
George Wendt turned 70 on 10/17 (NORM!)
Dawn Wells turned 80 on 10/18 (Mary Ann is 80? Fuck I'm old)
Viggo Mortensen turns 60 on 10/20
Happy 40th birthday Rachel McAdams! (11/17/18)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby Walleye413 » October 18th, 2018, 8:17 pm

Who here thought MaryAnn was way hotter than Ginger?
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby Shrykespeare » October 18th, 2018, 8:23 pm

Both were hot. But Ginger was ditzy and unattainable while Mary Ann was girl-next-door.
Happy 40th birthday Rachel McAdams! (11/17/18)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby Buscemi2 » October 18th, 2018, 8:55 pm

Hard to believe that Mortensen's almost 60. He looks much younger.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby Shrykespeare » October 19th, 2018, 2:34 pm

Because I can, I will also point out that Mark King, lead singer of the English Band Level 42, also turns 60 on 10/20. If I had to pick one musician whose body of work influenced my formative years and, indeed, my whole life, it would be him. I know most people don't know him or his music, but I for one am thankful to have had him in my life.

So, thanks, Mark. And happy birthday.

Now... back to this week's movies.

Can You Ever Forgive Me? looks intriguing. I've added it to a slate.
Happy 40th birthday Rachel McAdams! (11/17/18)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby Buscemi2 » October 20th, 2018, 12:52 am

Cinemascores:

The Hate U Give: A+ (haven't had one of these in a while)
Halloween: B+ (seems like this will be a bit more frontloaded than expected)
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby Shrykespeare » October 20th, 2018, 2:22 pm

Friday Estimates

Halloween, $33.3M
A Star is Born, $5.7M
Venom, $5.0M
Goosebumps 2, $2.5M
The Hate U Give, $2.5M
First Man, $2.5M
Smallfoot, $1.7M
Night School, $1.4M
Bad Times, $1.0M



Weekend Projections

Halloween, $80.3M
A Star is Born, $19M
Venom, $18M
Goosebumps 2, $10M
First Man, $8.6M
The Hate U Give, $8M
Smallfoot, $6.8M
Night School, $4.9M
Bad Times, $3.3M
House with a Clock, $1.8M



PTA:
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, $27K
Halloween, $20K
Happy 40th birthday Rachel McAdams! (11/17/18)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby Shrykespeare » October 21st, 2018, 12:27 pm

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Halloween, $77.5M
4 points - A Star is Born, $19.3M
3 points - Venom, $18.1M
2 points - Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween, $9.7M
1 point - First Man, $8.6M
The Hate U Give, $7.5M
Smallfoot, $6.6M
Night School, $5.0M
Bad Times at the El Royale, $3.3M
The Old Man & the Gun, $2.0M



PTA:
5 points - Mid90s
4 points - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3 points - Halloween
2 points - Beautiful Boy
1 point - A Star is Born

What They Had just missed. No word on The Guilty.
Happy 40th birthday Rachel McAdams! (11/17/18)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby Walleye413 » October 21st, 2018, 7:52 pm

Wow the power of Jonah HIll defeats Melissa. Crazy!
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby Buscemi2 » October 21st, 2018, 9:11 pm

A24 hyped the hell out of Mid90's (they don't have anything for Oscar season outside of First Reformed and Hereditary and it looks like Under the Silver Lake's getting dumped like A Prayer Before Dawn was) while Fox was busy with The Hate U Give and The Old Man and the Gun's expansions. Mid90's also had more showtimes per theatre due to the short run time (84 minutes vs. 107 minutes for Can You Ever Forgive Me?).

Another thing to note is that mainstream media cannot possibly ignore 90's nostalgia at this point (Goosebumps 2 might outgross First Man, who saw that coming?). And yet, 80's themed material still has a much easier time at getting produced and 2000's nostalgia is supposed to be the big thing in a few years (can you really fetishize what was basically a lost decade?).
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Postby Shrykespeare » October 22nd, 2018, 7:03 pm

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Halloween, $76.2M (5)
4 points - A Star is Born, $19.1M (12)
3 points - Venom, $18.0M (13)
2 points - Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween, $9.7M (4)
1 point - First Man, $8.3M (4)
The Hate U Give, $7.6M
Smallfoot, $6.6M
Night School, $4.9M
Bad Times at the El Royale, $3.4M
The Old Man & the Gun, $2.1M



PTA:
5 points - Mid90s,$64,539 (5)
4 points - Can You Ever Forgive Me?, $32,302 (4)
3 points - Halloween, $19,405 (3)
2 points - Beautiful Boy, $8,661 (7)
1 point - A Star is Born, $4,905 (7)

What They Had just missed at $4,421. The Guilty only managed $2,071.
Happy 40th birthday Rachel McAdams! (11/17/18)
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