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Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 12th-14th

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Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 12th-14th

Postby Buscemi2 » October 8th, 2018, 7:13 pm

“Ladies and gentlemen, uh, we've just lost the picture, but what we've seen speaks for itself. The Corvair spacecraft has apparently been taken over, 'conquered' if you will, by a master race of giant space ants. It's difficult to tell from this vantage point whether they will consume the captive Earthmen or merely enslave them. One thing is for certain: there is no stopping them; the ants will soon be here. And I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords. I'd like to remind them as a trusted TV personality, I can be helpful in rounding up others to toil in their underground sugar caves.”

- Kent Brockman, “Deep Space Homer” (The Simpsons, Season 5, Episode 15)

The fall has fast approached us and with that comes a pair of certain things: the beginning of awards season and the onslaught of horror and genre fare on our plentiful screens. This week, three wide releases and one limited release.

Last Week

Venom, despite terrible reviews, had the clean sweep in both categories with an $80.3 million weekend and a PTA of $18,884. Second in box office was A Star is Born with a $42.9 million. It also finished third in PTA with an $11,641 average. Third in box office was Smallfoot, holding nicely with a $14.4 million second weekend. Falling from first last weekend to fourth was Night School, shedding 54% to $12.5 million. And rounding out the top five in box office was The House with a Clock in its Walls with $7.3 million.

The rest of the PTA top five featured The Hate U Give in second, with a stellar if disappointing $14,223 average in 36 theatres. The wide expansion is still on for October 19th. Fourth was another Fox release, The Old Man and the Gun, with a $8,243 per. And getting a single point was Colette in its first expansion, averaging a $4,607 clip.

This Week

If You Believe They Put a “Man” on the Moon

The most anticipated film of the week is the reteaming of Ryan Gosling and Damien Chazelle, First Man (Universal). Chazelle’s first film since winning an Oscar for La La Land, this film about the Apollo 11 mission was partially shot on IMAX (but mostly in the 2-perf Techniscope process, I’m not sure if I want to see that blow-up) and as a result will get a four-week exclusive on its screens.

I’m sure we already know that Neil Armstrong was the first man on the moon (Buzz Aldrin was second while Michael Collins had to control the ship). Chazelle hopes that his devoted audience, as well as those who love space movies, doesn’t know the story leading up to it. Gosling plays Armstrong, Claire Foy plays Mrs. Armstrong, and the supporting cast includes Jason Clarke, Kyle Chandler, Corey Stoll (as Aldrin), Christopher Abbott, Patrick Fugit, Lukas Haas (as Collins), Shea Whigham, and Ciaran Hinds.

Not surprisingly, the critics like the film quite well (83 on Metacritic) and I’m sure that the Chazelle faithful and fans of both his work and comparable films like The Martian or Gravity will come in droves, despite the spoiler-heavy ad campaign. There has been the small controversy over not showing the American flag being planted (apparently, no such footage exists in the NASA archives) but I feel this is a vocal minority and that it will not be a factor in its final take.

Box Office Potential: with A Star is Born stealing much of its thunder, I’m thinking that it won’t be the monster that La La Land was but it will still have a serviceable final take. $28 million opening, $115 million finish.

A Movie That Will Give You “Goosebumps”

Next on the docket is Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween (Sony/Columbia), the sequel to the minor box office hit from 2015. Cashing in once again on 90’s nostalgia, Sony hopes that many who flocked to the previous film, as well as the even bigger Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, will arrive for this one. However, could the lack of Jack Black lead audiences not to come back to the shack for this bric-a-brac?

The premise for this sequel returns to the concept of manuscripts leading the characters of R.L. Stine’s stories to come to life. This time however, the plot involves two children opening an unpublished manuscript called “Haunted Halloween” in a house previously owned by Stine and the end result is Slappy (the dummy from the Night of the Living Dummy series-within-a-series) raising hell and working with his fellow minions to start the Halloween Apocalypse. The two little miscreants, along with the sister of one of them, must thwart Slappy’s plans.

With a good release date (three weeks before Halloween) and a kid-friendly idea, it seems like another hit, right? However, Black being unable to do the sequel (two scripts were written and due to Black’s commitment to The House with a Clock in Its Walls, the script without R.L. Stine was produced) and the change in director does not suggest much promise in this one. But, the name could end up being enough to overcome these obstacles. This is a big wild card for the month.

Box Office Potential: I’m beginning to not really like this one. Despite the brand name, Sony’s seemingly done a poor job marketing the film and what I’ve seen looks like an off-brand knock-off of the first film. Also, 90’s nostalgia can only go so far. $14 million opening, $38 million finish.

Battle “Royale” with Cheese

The last of the wide releases is Bad Times at the El Royale (Fox), the new film from Drew Goddard, jack of all trades in writing (Cloverfield, the previously-mentioned The Martian), directing (The Cabin in the Woods), and TV showrunning (Daredevil). For his first directorial effort in six (eight, if you count the two years The Cabin in the Woods spent on the shelf) years, Goddard makes another mind-bending ensemble thriller involving seven strangers who enter a bi-state hotel long past its prime but containing secrets that may drive its guests to insanity. The seven have come together for one last chance at changing their lives but might not live to do so. The ensemble cast includes Jeff Bridges, Cynthia Erivo (in her film debut), Dakota Johnson, Jon Hamm, Chris Hemsworth, Nick Offerman, and in an unknown role, Russell Crowe.

Though the marketing has been heavily selling itself around the cult potential and cast, I can’t help but being reminded that we’ve seen this film before. This summer, Hotel Artemis tried this ready-made cult film appeal with a better cast and it bombed. Last year, Fox released A Cure for Wellness, another cult-aimed film set in a lodge and it flopped. Fifteen years ago, you had Identity doing something similar and though that made money, it was a more audience-friendly film (though I’m sure more than a few people hated the ending). In addition, Fox was recently having difficulty getting people to attend free screenings of the film hosted in Hollywood. If you can’t give it away, you might have a problem selling it (eventually, Fox had to charge $10 admission to make up some of those losses).

Box Office Potential: on the other hand, this has been better marketed and better reviewed than those two films. But, there’s too much mainstream product for adults right now. $9 million opening, $25 million finish.

Arthouse Class 101

It looks like we only have one title on the curriculum this week.

Beautiful Boy (Amazon) – not to be confused with Boy Erased (that opens next month), this is the first English language film from Oscar nominated Belgian director Felix Van Groeningen and was produced by Brad Pitt’s company. Based on two memoirs, this drama focuses on the love of a father and his son as the son struggles with and later fights meth addiction. Steve Carell and Timothee Chalamet play the father and son and the supporting cast includes Maura Tierney, Amy Ryan, Kaitlyn Dever, Timothy Hutton, and LisaGay Hamilton.

With this seemingly being the only game in town for our limited choices, I get this is one to go for if you’ve got a few dollars to spare. The cast has some name actors, the pedigree is made up of Oscar nominees and winners, and the reviews haven’t been too bad. However, the theme of meth addiction is not something that going to bring in a wide audience, especially with the stigma that it’s an addiction you don’t see with upper class families (when people think meth, they’ll think lower class and Winter’s Bone). Maybe this film will open up people’s eyes in that anyone can become an addict but I doubt it.

In conclusion, this film should bring in between 7-10 PTA points, a couple million in box office, and an IMDb score in the low 7’s.

Notable titles not in the game include Bigger (Entertainment Studios/Freestyle), a bodybuilding drama from the co-writer of Bad Boys, Gosnell (GVN Releasing), the latest scare tactic designed by conservatives to get you on their side, and The Oath (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions), the newest Get Out-inspired genre film directed by former Mad TV cast member Ike Barinholtz.

Box Office: A Star is Born, First Man, Venom, Goosebumps 2, Smallfoot
PTA: Beautiful Boy, The Happy Prince, A Star is Born, First Man, The Hate U Give

Next week, Six will take care of a single wide release, Halloween (Universal), and four limited releases, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight), The Guilty (Magnolia), Mid90’s (A24), and What They Had (Bleecker Street). In rod we trust.
Last edited by Buscemi2 on October 9th, 2018, 2:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 12th-14th

Postby Ron Burgundy » October 9th, 2018, 1:56 am

Well, i didn't even realise Jack Black wasn't in Goosebumps 2, i think you're right in that it wont be a hit this halloween but for kids- what else is there? I guess Smallfoot will get more $

I don't think Bad Times will suffer from the worn idea if it is indeed not fresh- i have faith in Drew Goddard but it does seem like not enough hype, perhaps its the wrong weekend to open?

And First Man, i think will open to $35M+, with great holds for 3 weeks, October Sci-Fi always pulls in the crowds
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 12th-14th

Postby Buscemi2 » October 9th, 2018, 2:18 am

I also found out that Bad Times at the El Royale runs 141 minutes. Long movies often do well (though A Cure for Wellness certainly didn't) but I have a feeling this could have been under two hours if this turns out to be more Cabin in the Woods (final run time: 95 minutes) craziness but in a hotel.

With First Man, had A Star is Born not generated the incredible buzz that it has, it would have easily been the second biggest film of the month. But as of now, it could very well underperform. Also, I've noticed that some theatres may get out of its four-week IMAX commitment to run Bohemian Rhapsody (one of the two IMAX theatres near me has started pre-selling for its opening day).
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 12th-14th

Postby numbersix » October 9th, 2018, 3:31 am

Agreed on First Man. It's got a lot going for it, but that older audience will be seeingf A Star is Born first. Maybe the fellas will get revenge and bring their wives to see this.

Goosebumps 2 should do a little better. Kids don't really care about cast or directors, and now that the brand has been established that's the only thing that counts.

I don't get the appeal for Bad Times at El Royale, but it's certainly appealing to a certain crowd (that post-Tarantino crowd), that's for sure.

1. Venom: 35m
2. First Man: 27m
3. A Star is Born: 25m
4. Goosebumps: 18m
5. Bad Times: 10m

PTA: Beautiful Boy, Venom, First Man, A Star is Born, Hate U Give
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 12th-14th

Postby W » October 9th, 2018, 8:12 am

Ron Burgundy wrote:Well, i didn't even realise Jack Black wasn't in Goosebumps 2, i think you're right in that it wont be a hit this halloween but for kids- what else is there? I guess Smallfoot will get more $


Jack Black is in Goosebumps 2. I've seen him in a trailer or two, but I think it's a cameo they were planning on keeping secret until everyone wanted to know where Jaybles was. Also he's in the IMDb cast list, Fandango cast list, Rotten Tomatoes cast list, etc.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 12th-14th

Postby Chienfantome » October 9th, 2018, 7:01 pm

I wouldn't be surprised if A Star is Born reached $30M for its 2nd weekend. Drop could be below 30% given the hype and word of mouth.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 12th-14th

Postby Shrykespeare » October 11th, 2018, 8:16 pm

Theater counts:

First Man - 3,640
Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween - 3,521
Bad Times at the El Royale - 2,808
The Happy Prince - 8



Next week:

Halloween - 3,700
Can You Ever Forgive Me? - 5

The Hate U Give - expands to 2,300
The Old Man & the Gun - expands to 600





Celebrity birthdays:

Jane Krakowski turned 50 on 10/11
Hugh Jackman turns 50 on 10/12
Max Thieriot turns 30 on 10/14
Happy 30th birthday Anna Popplewell! (12/16/18)
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 12th-14th

Postby Buscemi2 » October 13th, 2018, 1:15 am

Cinemascores:

First Man: B+ (ouch)
Goosebumps 2: B (double ouch)
Bad Times at the El Royale: B- (triple ouch)
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 12th-14th

Postby Ron Burgundy » October 13th, 2018, 12:40 pm

almost strange to see a B called ouch, but i get it, these user reviews need an A or better.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 12th-14th

Postby Shrykespeare » October 14th, 2018, 2:32 am

Friday estimates:

Venom, $9.8M
A Star is Born, $8.5M
First Man, $5.8M
Goosebumps 2, $4.8M
Bad Times, $2.8M
Smallfoot, $2.3M
Night School, $2.2M
House with a Clock, $1M



Weekend Projections:

Venom, $32M
A Star is Born, $29.5M
First Man, $17M
Goosebumps 2, $16M
Smallfoot, $9.2M
Night School, $7.7M
Bad Times, $7.4M
House with a Clock, $3.9M
A Simple Favor, $1.3M
The Nun, $1.3M


PTA:

A Star is Born, $8K
Venom, $7.5K
Hate U Give, $6.2K
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 12th-14th

Postby Shrykespeare » October 14th, 2018, 12:29 pm

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Venom, $35.7M (-55.5%)
4 points - A Star is Born, $28.0M (-34.7%)
3 points - First Man, $16.5M
2 points - Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween, $16.2M
1 point - Smallfoot, $9.3M
Night School, $8.0M
Bad Times at the El Royale, $7.2M
The House with a Clock in its Walls, $4.0M
The Hate U Give, $1.8M
A Simple Favor, $1.4M




PTA:
5 points - Beautiful Boy, $55K
4 points - Venom, $8.4K
3 points - A Star is Born, $7.5K
2 points - The Hate U Give, $7.1K
1 point - The Happy Prince, $5K




Predictions/Observations:

1. Venom looks like a lock for $200M. Huh.

2. A Star is Born will hit $100M mid-week. $150 seems likely.

3. Smallfoot and Night School will probably both end around $75M. House with a Clock will be slightly below that.

4. The Nun hit $115M.

5. Crazy Rich Asians hit $170M.

6. The Predator hit $50M.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 12th-14th

Postby Walleye413 » October 14th, 2018, 6:10 pm

Anybody here seen Venom? Curious if it's any good.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 12th-14th

Postby Buscemi2 » October 15th, 2018, 7:56 am

I'm convinced that the like for Venom is from people trying to be edgy. I really don't understand how one could hate Suicide Squad as violently as people on the Internet do (especially since Justice League is worse) but defend Venom. Suicide Squad at least adds something new to the superhero genre (one focused on villains). Venom is more or less Spawn or the recent Fantastic Four.

And as I mentioned last week, it seems like the film is playing to more conservative audiences (which I'm also convinced hurt First Man, as a lot of the people who created the whole American flag controversy loved Whiplash). Venom really comes off as a poster child for the incel movement as well as those that identify with the edgelord community.
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 12th-14th

Postby Shrykespeare » October 15th, 2018, 7:50 pm

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Venom, $35.0M (-56.4%) (10)
4 points - A Star is Born, $28.4M (-33.7%) (8)
3 points - First Man, $16.0M (3)
2 points - Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween, $15.8M (2)
1 point - Smallfoot, $9.1M (8)
Night School, $7.8M
Bad Times at the El Royale, $7.1M
The House with a Clock in its Walls, $3.8M
The Hate U Give, $1.7M
A Simple Favor, $1.3M




PTA:
5 points - Beautiful Boy, $54,722 (5)
4 points - Venom, $8,237 (9)
3 points - A Star is Born, $7,671 (6)
2 points - The Hate U Give, $7,003 (6)
1 point - The Happy Prince, $4,861 (1)
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Re: Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: October 12th-14th

Postby undeadmonkey » October 15th, 2018, 9:19 pm

I saw Venom this past weekend. It was fine. i didn't feel like i wasted my time, yet there was nothing new or unique that you haven't seen before. Also doubt i'd ever have the urge to see it again.

Actually surprised it held so well this week. I honestly think people are so accustomed to having their Marvel fix every few months that Venom is filling that need. Marvel could release a new film every 3 months and it probably wouldnt impact the box office take of any of their films.
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