SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 9/21

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

Moderators: Buscemi, BarcaRulz, Geezer, W

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 9/21

Post by Shrykespeare »

Yes, it's me, your fearless leader (kind of), taking a break from his job/wife/literary career to bring you the scoop on this weekend's filmic potential.

Last week, The Predator took #1 at the box office despite sucking ass as a film, due largely to the fact that it's September. Yes, we have had some surprise breakout hits in the last two months (The Meg, Crazy Rich Asians, The Nun), but Shane Black's latest disappointment was not hard to predict. The aforementioned Nun dropped a whopping 66% in its sophomore session but still finished at #2, and will likely hit $100M this weekend. Newcomers A Simple Favor and White Boy Rick notched $16.0M and $8.8M in their debuts, with them Wacky Wealthy Singaporeans claiming their fifth week in the Top 5. On the PTA front, documentary Hal scored a surprise victory in its second week, beating out biopic Lizzie and a host of wide-release debuts.

Four months ago, I had huge hopes for A House with a Clock in its Walls (Universal). It looked very Tim Burton-y, spooky yet fun, with a premise to enthrall viewers of all ages. It had Jack Black (hot off Jumanji), Cate Blanchett (hot off Thor: Ragnarok and Ocean's 8), and despite the fact that Eli Roth isn't really known for directing comedies, I saw this doing respectable numbers a la The Haunted Mansion. That's why I picked it in the third round.

Well, even Babe Ruth didn't hit a home run every time.

Not that I'm expecting HWACIIW to tank. It should win the weekend with upwards of $20M, so there's that. The bad news is that it will have stiff competition for kid viewers next week with Smallfoot and teenagers in two weeks with Venom. Plus, in three weeks, you have Goosebumps 2, which should steal any thunder this film still has at that point. For $17 in the September Ultimate leagues, you'll end up with seven Top 5, three or four PTA, a middling Rating below 6, and about $60M total. I wouldn't pick it (now). I need to finish that time machine so I can go back to early may and choose A Star is Born.

In 2,500 theaters this weekend (800 fewer than House) will be Life Itself (Amazon Studios), a super-dramatic drama from director Dan Fogelman (creator of TV's dramatic drama This is Us). The film stars Oscar Isaac, Olivias Munn and Cooke, and Hollywood veterans Annette Bening, Mandy Patinkin, and Antonio Banderas (looking hella old). I'm honestly not sure what the plot is, as both the trailer and the blurb are horrendously vague, but I guess it's about ... life. Itself.

Anyway, the good news is this films is cheap ($9 in Ultimate); the bad news, it's not cheap enough. It could finish anywhere between second and fifth place in the logjam of September releases, but it won't get you much beyond a few T5, one or two PTA, and (again) a Rating below 6. Pass.


On the limited front:

Assassination Nation (Neon) - the wholesome town of Salem (yeah, right) is turned upside down when a malicious hack exposes all its residents' dirty secrets. Chaos ensues. I recognize very few names in the cast (Bella Thorne, yay), I do not know how many theaters will be showing it, but I venture that it will be too many to glean any useful PTA points. It's current Rating (5.1) inspires no confidence, so I would not waste my $4 on this.

Colette (Bleecker Street) - Keira Knightley plays the titular role of Gabrielle Colette, a woman persuaded to put her incredible literary talents to good use by writing novels ... which would then be published under her husband's name. The two become a celebrity couple, but her lack of recognition causes her to rebel. Dominic West, Eleanor Tomlinson and Fiona Shaw also star. Critics have loved it, but its current Rating doesn't reflect that (6.0). This looks like a solid PTA pick, but it's not without its red flags.

Love, Gilda (Magnolia) - This documentary chronicles the life and times of comedic legend and SNL alum Gilda Radner (wife to the late, great Gene Wilder). The film will feature interviews with colleagues and friends, never-before-seen footage, and recently-discovered audiotapes of Gilda. I don't see this becoming a PTA giant, but for $3, you could do worse. At least it has a good Rating (7.5), far and away the best of this week's crowd.


Top 5:

House with a Clock in its Walls, $20M
The Predator, $10M
A Simple Favor, $9M
Life Itself, $8M
The Nun, $8M



PTA:

Colette, House with a Clock in its Walls, Hal, Love Gilda, Lizzie



Next week, Banks will return to tackle Hotel Himalayas, Kevin Hart's 2000th career film, a low-grade teenage slasher film, and an indie film about a senior citizen and a firearm.

Later!
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Walleye413
Marv
Posts: 1761
Joined: November 17th, 2009, 1:17 am

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 9/21

Post by Walleye413 »

Hey Shryke after reading your note about Colette I'm wondering if we should ask your wife about the Wielders series real author :)

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 9/21

Post by numbersix »

I was surprised by the early buzz on House. Eli Roth was a bizarre choice and it just looks overwhelmed by competition around it. The book's fans may help it open to 20, but yeah that's about it. And Life Itself looks like it'll tank. It's basically Dan Fogelman's This is Us squeezed into a 2 hour film, and the critics have slated it. Can't see this making beyond $5m this weekend and 10 total. I am, however, much more keen on Colette. Initially it seemed dubious but the solid reviews should make it a PTA hit. Assassination Nation looks like it's coming out in a few hundred theatres this weekend.

Is Fahrenheit 11/9 not in this game? It could surprise

1. House with a Clock in its Walls, $20M
2. The Predator, $10M
3. The Nun, $9M
4. A Simple Favor, $8M
5. Fahrenheit 11/9, $6M

PTA: Collette,Love Gilda, House, Lizzie, Hal

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6662
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 9/21

Post by Buscemi2 »

Assassination Nation is getting three theatres here this weekend. Neon wants to make that $10 million back. However, I think audiences are Purged out at this point and does anyone want to see that same premise redone for Bella Thorne-loving incels/online creeps? In addition, mixed reviews for a film that needs good ones to thrive.

And The House with a Clock in Its Walls will probably open well before dropping fast. Reviews have been mixed and the whole thing feels like another Stranger Things-inspired movie (only it's not the 80's this time).

Also, I don't think Fahrenheit 11/9 is in the game. It was a late pickup by its distributor due to legal issues involving its distribution (Weinstein had the film and HBO and Amazon planned to jointly buy it for a TV premiere but pulled out due to Weinstein's accounting practices).
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 9/21

Post by Shrykespeare »

Yeah, Fahrenheit 11/9 got added to the roster a little too late for it to be included. Sorry.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Chienfantome
Captain Jack Sparrow
Posts: 9967
Joined: May 29th, 2010, 4:22 am
Location: Paris, France
Contact:

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 9/21

Post by Chienfantome »

PTA winner this week will be, easily, The Sisters Brothers. I'm sure it's gonna do one of the best scores of the year.
Fluctuat nec mergitur

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 9/21

Post by numbersix »

Is it included in the game?

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 9/21

Post by Shrykespeare »

numbersix wrote:Is it included in the game?
No. Neither is The Sisters Brothers. That's the downside of eleventh-hour shuffling. I know both films were chosen in the Draft League, though.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6662
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 9/21

Post by Buscemi2 »

Too early estimates have everything outside of The House with a Clock in Its Walls flopping.

House: $7 million Friday/$22.4 million weekend
Fahrenheit 11/9: $1.5 million Friday/$4.1 million weekend
Life Itself: $1.1 million Friday/$3.1 million weekend
Assassination Nation: $400,000 Friday/$1 million weekend (Deadline's estimates are as high as $2 million but if that Friday number holds, no way it goes that high)

Things I gathered:
- Jack Black is a box office draw again.
- Political documentaries only sell if it's a feel good subject (it also confirms my first thoughts that this would only make a tenth of Fahrenheit 9/11, though it might pass that slightly)
- Fans of This is Us read reviews.
- Audiences are sick of movies inspired by The Purge.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 9/21

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater Counts:

The House with a Clock in its Walls - 3,592
Life Itself - 2,609
Fahrenheit 11/9 - 1,719
Assassination Nation - 1,403
Colette - 4
The Sisters Brothers - 4




Next week:

Smallfoot - 4,000+
Night School - 2,800
Hell Fest - 2,200
Little Women - 600
The Old Man and the Gun - 5





Celebrity birthdays:

Jeremy Irons turned 70 on 9/19
George R.R. Martin turned 70 on 9/20
Ricki Lake turned 50 on 9/21
Joan Jett turns 60 on 9/22
Anthony Mackie turns 40 on 9/23
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6662
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 9/21

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascores:

Fahrenheit 11/9: A
The House with a Clock in Its Walls: B+
Life Itself: B+

Assassination Nation doesn't seem to have been polled but I'd imagine it wouldn't have had a good score (it seems like most that have seen the film hate it).
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 9/21

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

The House with a Clock in its Walls, $7.8M
A Simple Favor, $3.3M
The Nun, $2.9M
The Predator, $2.4M
Crazy Rich Asians, $1.8M
White Boy Rick, $1.5M
Fahrenheit 11/9, $1.1M
Peppermint, $1.0M



Weekend Projections:

The House with a Clock in its Walls, $25M
A Simple Favor, $10.5M
The Nun, $9.2M
The Predator, $8.5M
Crazy Rich Asians, $6.4M
White Boy Rick, $5.1M
Fahrenheit 11/9, $2.4M
Life Itself, $2.3M
Searching, $2.1M
The Meg, $2.1M


PTA:

The Sisters Brothers, $25K (damn, I wish I'd included it)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 9/21

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - The House with a Clock in its Walls, $26.8M
4 points - A Simple favor, $10.4M
3 points - The Nun, $10.2M
2 points - The Predator, $8.7M
1 point - Crazy Rich Asians, $6.5M
White Boy Rick, $5.0M
Peppermint, $3.7M
Fahrenheit 11/9, $3.1M
The Meg, $2.3M
Searching, $2.2M

15. Assassination Nation, $1.0M



PTA:
Top 10:
5 points - Colette
4 points - The House with a Clock in its Walls
3 points - A Simple Favor
2 points - The Nun
1 point - Crazy Rich Asians

No word on Love Gilda, but it wouldn't take a very high PTA to crack the Top 5.



Predictions/Observations:

1. House with a Clock is virtually assure of $60M with good holds, possibly $70M
2. A Simple Favor has a good shot at $50M
3. The Nun just cracked $100M, and has an outside shot at $120M.
4. Crazy Rich Asians now has a real shot at $175M.
5. The Meg just hit $140M, and will not hit $150M.
6. Christopher Robin will fall just shy of $100M.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6662
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 9/21

Post by Buscemi2 »

Love, Gilda got a lot of theatres this weekend though (something around 50-75). At most, it might get one or two points.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
Posts: 14273
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 9/21

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - The House with a Clock in its Walls, $26.6M (5)
4 points - A Simple favor, $10.3M (7)
3 points - The Nun, $10.0M (12)
2 points - The Predator, $9.2M (6)
1 point - Crazy Rich Asians, $6.3M (20)
White Boy Rick, $4.9M
Peppermint, $3.7M
Fahrenheit 11/9, $3.1M
The Meg, $2.3M
Searching, $2.2M
Life Itself, $2.1M

15. Assassination Nation, $1.1M



PTA:
Top 10:
5 points - Colette, $40,295 (5)
4 points - The House with a Clock in its Walls, $7,408 (4)
3 points - A Simple Favor, $3,305 (5)
2 points - The Nun, $2,688 (8)
1 point - Love Gilda, $2,313 (1)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

Post Reply