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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/7

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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/7

Postby numbersix » September 4th, 2018, 5:18 pm

This holiday weekend failed to bring any significant newcomers to the table, but the way some of August’s other films held was incredible. Surprisingly not a film about China’s ruling elite, Crazy Rich Asians proved that even a little bit of cast diversification can create great results. Sorry Scarlet Jo, you’re going to have to hold off on the yellow-face. Elevated Syfy fare The Meg crossed the $120m mark. I hope y’all realise how rich you’re making Jason “one-gear” Statham. And Tom Cruise sprinted across the $200m mark, giving Chien even more reasons to be haughty to the rest of us. So now we’re into September, and it starts with a bang.




Or more specifically a JUMP SCARE, with the release of The Nun (Warner/New Line). Because even my breakfast is now a franchise, so too is this Conjuring world, with the scary sister being the second spin-off character (after the Annabelle films) from Wan’s original box-office hit. Set in the 50s, a priest and his novice investigate the suicide of one of their own. Having gone to Catholic schools, I can tell you that non supernatural nuns are scary enough.

No significant cast feature (Demian Bichir plays the lead), but that’s not the point. These films have a habit (heh) of performing well, with Annabelle 2 even surpassing the box office of the first film. As long as it delivers the scares, this film will do well. So expect yet another opening in the mid 30s, and a cume in the 80s. You’ll also get 6 PTA points, 10-12 T5 points, and a low 6 IMDB score. As mid-range films go, these are pretty solid figures, so consider investing your $18-19 ($13 in the June leagues) here. In BO, though you might get more out of some of October’s releases, like First Man, A Star is Born, and even Halloween.




Next is overshadowed Peppermint (STX). I mean, who would make a movie named after the second best mint flavour? It’s actually about a woman who hunts down the cartel who murdered her husband and daughter. So far so generic, with the female lead only ensuring it’s beyond a STVOD release. Jennifer Garner gets her hands dirty here, with support from John Ortiz and Method Man. Pierre Morel (Taken, From Paris with Love) helms. All in all this looks like an underachiever. With most of its audience preferring Maniac Mother Superior, this will struggle to make it past $10m this weekend. That will be 3-4 T5, maybe 1-2 PTA, and a rating in the 5s. Avoid in BO, and probably Ultimate too.




And from one religious story to the next. Only this is the scarier one, because they believe in that shit. God Bless the Broken Road is another Freestyle Christian film. This one is about a grieving mother who meets a race car driver. Days of Thunder this is not. But it is made by the team behind God’s Not Dead. Still, Freestyle haven’t had a serious hit in over 4 years, and this is unlikely to be the miracle they need. With $10m being the highest it can reach for, I pray you don’t pick this up in any league.




Last, and definitely least, is limited offering Hal (Oscilloscope). Oscilloscope don’t have the heft to release films that build and build, and reap in PTA rewards. That said, this is a documentary about proto Wes Anderson, Hal Ashby, who made classics like Harold & Maude, The Last Detail, and Being There. With strong reviews and a specific audience, this could do well in its initial NY/LA run. So for your 2 spondoolicks in ultimate it’s worth a punt. Just don’t go near it in BO.



Predictions for the weekend


1. The Nun - $33m
2. Crazy Rich Asians - $11m
3. Peppermint - $10m
4. The Meg- $5m
5. Mission Impossible Fallout- $4.5m

PTA: The Nun, The Wife, Hal, Crazy Rich Asians, Peppermint


Next week Tranny sees Shane Black come full circle to reboot the franchise he originally acted in, with the release of The Predator, along with A Simple Favour, White Boy Rick, and limited releases American Chaos and Lizzie.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/7

Postby Shrykespeare » September 4th, 2018, 9:01 pm

Chien can't be haughty after picking Solo in the first round.

I, on the other hand, can. So...

BWAAAAHAAAHAAAA!


You get ten whacks with a ruler for that habit joke, Six. Surprise you didn't quip how "shallow" Hal's chances are...
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/7

Postby Buscemi2 » September 4th, 2018, 10:52 pm

I can't be the only one who thinks Peppermint looks almost exactly like the Death Wish remake. The only difference seems to be that they replaced the "how to be your own vigilante" angle with a "Mexicans are evil" message.

Meanwhile, I'd say there's one big difference between Hal Ashby and Wes Anderson. Ashby made different movies besides "ensemble comedies that are obsessed with the color orange".
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/7

Postby Shrykespeare » September 4th, 2018, 11:06 pm

Buscemi2 wrote:Ashby made different movies besides "ensemble comedies that are obsessed with the color orange".


This made me spray Diet Coke out my nose. Thanks, Boosh.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/7

Postby Chienfantome » September 5th, 2018, 8:39 am

numbersix wrote:Tom Cruise sprinted across the $200m mark, giving Chien even more reasons to be haughty to the rest of us


Damn right I'll be even more haughty, when you're French you're born haughty. Especially towards Americans. And Brits. And of course Germans. Belgians too, obviously. And... well, you know.

Shrykespeare wrote:Chien can't be haughty after picking Solo in the first round.


Maybe. Maybe a tiny bit less haughty then.
Fluctuat nec mergitur
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/7

Postby Buscemi2 » September 8th, 2018, 3:44 am

Cinemascores:

Peppermint: B+
The Nun: C (it wouldn't be surprising to see this barely clear $40 million now)
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/7

Postby Shrykespeare » September 8th, 2018, 6:25 pm

Friday Estimates:

The Nun, $22.4M
Peppermint, $4.6M
Crazy Rich Asians, $3.8M
Searching, $1.4M
The Meg, $1.3M
Mission: Impossible, $1.0M



Weekend Projections:

The Nun, $45M
Crazy Rich Asians, $13.5M
Peppermint, $12.7M
Searching, $4.6M
The Meg, $4.3M
MI: Fallout, $3.9M
Christopher Robin, $3.5M
Operation Finale, $2.9M
Alpha, $2.6M
BlacKkKlansman, $2.6M
God Bless the Broken Road, $1.5M





Celebrity birthdays:

Wes Bentley turned 40 on 9/4
Devon Sawa turned 40 on 9/7
Julia Sawalha turned 50 on 9/9
Happy 30th birthday Anna Popplewell! (12/16/18)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/7

Postby Shrykespeare » September 9th, 2018, 1:51 pm

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - The Nun, $53.5M
4 points - Crazy Rich Asians, $13.6M
3 points - Peppermint, $13.3M
2 points - The Meg, $6.0M
1 point - Searching, $4.5M
Mission: Impossible - Fallout, $3.8M
Disney's Christopher Robin, $3.2M
Operation Finale, $3.0M
Alpha, $2.5M
BlacKkKlansman, $1.6M
God Bless the Broken Roead, $1.6M




PTA:
5 points - The Nun
4 points - Hal
3 points - The Wife
2 points - Peppermint
1 point - Crazy Rich Asians
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/7

Postby undeadmonkey » September 10th, 2018, 2:16 am

Maybe the Nun wont hold well, but it's pretty much worth it after one weekend
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/7

Postby numbersix » September 10th, 2018, 7:21 am

Yeah, was not expecting it to be the highest opener of the entire Conjuring franchise.

But unlike Annabelle 2, which was perceived to be a better-than-average horror (I personally hated it, but I am not a typical horror fan), it won't hold well. Still, It's pretty much guaranteed $115m and beyond.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/7

Postby Walleye413 » September 10th, 2018, 4:28 pm

Although typically I would expect it to plummet, it didn't really happen over the weekend. Even with bad word of mouth, it seemed to build all weekend. I'll be quite curious how big a drop it goes next weekend, I think some of that might be more dependent on Predator. Maybe The Nun is both critic-proof and wom-proof. Nearly 54 million is crazy.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/7

Postby Shrykespeare » September 10th, 2018, 6:28 pm

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - The Nun, $53.8M (5)
4 points - Peppermint, $13.4M (4)
3 points - Crazy Rich Asians, $13.1M (18)
2 points - The Meg, $6.1M (19)
1 point - Searching, $4.6M (3)
Mission: Impossible - Fallout, $3.9M
Disney's Christopher Robin, $3.4M
Operation Finale, $2.9M
BlacKkKlansman, $2.6M
Alpha, $2.5M
God Bless the Broken Roead, $1.4M

Who'd've predicted that The Meg and Crazy Rich Asians would combine for THIRTY-SEVEN Top 5 points (and counting)?!?



PTA:
5 points - The Nun, $13,882 (5)
4 points - Hal, $5,150 (4)
3 points - Peppermint, $4,504 (3)
2 points - The Wife, $4,182 (16)
1 point - Crazy Rich Asians, $3,402 (8)
Happy 30th birthday Anna Popplewell! (12/16/18)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 9/7

Postby Shrykespeare » September 17th, 2018, 7:30 pm

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - The Predator, $24.6M (5)
4 points - The Nun $18.2M, (9)
3 points - A Simple Favor, $16.0M (3)
2 points - White Boy Rick, $8.9M (2)
1 point - Crazy Rich Asians, $8.7M (19)
Peppermint ,$6.0M
The Meg, $3.9M
Searching, $3.2M
Mission: Impossible - Falout, $2.3M
Unbroken: Path to Redemption, $2.2M



PTA:
5 points - Hal, $12,150 (9)
4 points - Lizzie, $11,895 (4)
3 points - The Predator, $6,102 (3)
2 points - A Simple Favor, $5,162 (2)
1 point - The Nun, $4,705 (6)


I will update all the leagues tomorrow. I've been pulling tons of OT and I'm exhausted. Thanks.
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