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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/14

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/14

Postby transformers2 » September 12th, 2018, 3:52 pm

Well I've finally joined "the lose your entire column as your about to post it" club. I'm beyond honored to have been initiated into this group and I will cherish this renowned distinction for the rest of my days. Here's the abbreviated version of the ramblings I wrote earlier.

Last weekend recap:
-Warner Brothers remarkable run of hits continues withThe Nun, which surprisingly set a new high OW for the very successful The Conjuring universe. Even if its tepid WOM leads to steep drops for the rest of its run, it should earn at least $125 mil and challenge the OG Conjuring for the franchise's highest domestic haul.

-Other new wide release Peppermint also faired relatively well by squeaking past 3x reigning BO champ Crazy Rich Asians for the #2 spot. The Jennifer Garner-led vigilante pic appears in-line to mirror the performance of STX's other recent action flick Mile 22 with a total cume in the mid-30's, despite having half the budget.

Wide Releases
The Predator (Fox) (SEP-NOV pricetag: $16 BO, $16 ULT)
Director: Shane Black Cast: Boyd Holbrook, Trevante Rhodes, Olivia Munn, Keegan Michael-Key, Sterling K. Brown and Jacob Tremblay
-Even before news broke last week of Shane Black's wildly insensitive decision to give a bit part to a friend that was a registered sex offender without alerting his cast or the studio first, The Predator wasn't in a great position to be a smash hit. The entire 3rd act was reshot earlier this year and for whatever reason, the lethal extraterrestrial hunter hasn't replicated the BO success of their Xenomorph cousins. It should still end up doing a bit better than 2010's Predators thanks to its less competitive September release date.

Prediction: $25 mil OW, 7-9 Top 5, 3-5 PTA, high 6-low 7 IMDB, $55-65 mil total BO
Verdict: Questionable pick in both formats with the potential to be disastrous if the Black controversy ends up having a greater-than-expected impact on the BO receipts.

A Simple Favor (Lionsgate) (SEP-NOV pricetag: $9 BO, $9 ULT)
Director: Paul Feig Cast: Anna Kendrick, Blake Lively, Henry Golding, Linda Cardelini, Andrew Rennels
A Simple Favor has no shortage of selling points going for it. It's a glossy mystery thriller featuring a pair of likable, recognizable leads helmed by a director responsible for several recent hits that has received pretty enthusiastic, if not impressive early reviews (90% on RT). This strong pedigree is sadly undermined by its distributor. Lionsgate has had a shit year at the BO outside of Overboard and I don't expect this to be the title that breaks their run of films that crap out before they eclipse $50 mil.

Prediction: $13.5 mil OW, 3-4 Top 5, 0-2 PTA, mid-to-high 6 IMDB, $35-40 mil total BO
Verdict: Mediocre slate filler in both formats

White Boy Rick (Sony/Studio 8 (SEP-NOV pricetag: $6 BO, $6 ULT)
Director: Yann Demange Cast: Richie Merritt, Matthew McConaughey, Jonathan Majors, Bel Powley, RJ Cyler, Brian Tyree Henry and Jennifer Jason Leigh
Despite the lukewarm critical reception following its screenings on the festival circuit and uninspiring industry tracking numbers ($7-10 mil), I believe that White Boy Rick could end up surprising. Sony has pushed the hell out of it in recent weeks, true crime stories tend to have a broad appeal and if the reportedly excellent test screening scores (90's) translate to the mass audiences, it could end up holding very well in the coming weeks. A top 3 finish at the BO this weekend and $30+ mil domestic run certainly isn't out of the question.
Prediction: $9.5 mil OW, 2-4 Top 5, 0-2 PTA, high 6 to low 7 IMDb, $30-35 mil total BO
Verdict: Affordable wide release with real overachiever potential that could end up being a great addition to your slate (particularly in BO).

Limited Releases:
American Chaos (Sony Classics) (SEP-NOV pricetag: $3 ULT, $1 BO)
Director: James D. Stern Cast: Trump voters that were interviewed by the director ahead of the 2016 election
This is a rough one to predict. Liberals will probably wait until Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 11/9 opens wide next weekend while conservatives are likely avoid to anything that even remotely criticizes Trump. However, I'm not going to bet against anything political in this current climate, especially considering the completely barren limited market right now.
Prediction: 6-8 PTA, IMDB in the 4's
Verdict: It's IMDB score will likely be shit (currently at 3.4 with 27), but it's has a pretty good amount of PTA potential for a $3 pick if you're willing to overlook that.

Lizzie (Roadside/Saban) (SEP-Nove pricetag: $3 ULT, $1 BO)
Director: Craig William Macneil Cast: Chloe Sevigny, Kristen Stewart, Fiona Shaw, Jamey Sheridan, Denis O'Hare and Kim Dickens.
While it may squeak put multiple PTA points this weekend due to the aforementioned lack of competition, the latest adaptation of the real-life urban legend of acquitted axe murderer Lizzie Borden seems like a longshot to be an arthouse hit. The reviews haven't been overly great (70% RT) and it has the potential to expand to a couple hundred theaters in no time at all.
Prediction: 1-3 PTA, IMDb in the low-to-mid 6's
Verdict: Spend your $3 in ULT elsewhere

Weekend Projections:
1.The Predator $25 mil
2.The Nun $23 mil
3.A Simple Favor $13.5 mil
4.White Boy Rick $9.5 mil
5.Crazy Rich Asians $8 mil

PTA: American Chaos, The Predator, The Nun, Lizzie,White Boy Rick

Tune in next week when Shryke returns to his old stomping grounds to deliver forecasts for the godfather of torture porn's first foray into the world of family films, Dan Fogelman's latest decades-spanning tearjerker, an ultraviolent satire from upstart studio Neon, Keira Knightley's return to the arthouse scene and a documentary about one of SNL's most iconic cast members.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/14

Postby numbersix » September 12th, 2018, 5:58 pm

I've started to do all my columns on a Word document now, just to avoid the dreaded crash.

Agreed on The Predator. Don't think the controversy will affect the film as the scenes featuring that actor were deleted in the end, but more the response to the trailers have been very mixed. Mid 20s opening and mid 60s cume seems about right.

I'm not so convinced about White Boy Rick. The reviews call it quite dull and Mcconaughey doesn't guarantee a hit, especially with reviews being bad (ahem ahem Free State of Jones). I'm thinking 8m opening and 20m tops.

When it comes to PTA, I'm going to slightly favour Lizzie. The cast should be enough to garner interest, despite the likewarm reviews. I think the problem with American Chaos is that it's not scathing enough for the left or joyous enough for the right, and appeals to no one. I'm skipping both films in the game, though.


Weekend Projections:
1.The Predator $27 mil
2.The Nun $20 mil
3.A Simple Favor $12 mil
4.Crazy Rich Asians $8 mil
5.White Boy Rick $8 mil


PTA: The Predator, Lizzie, The Nun, American Chaos, A Simple Favor
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/14

Postby Buscemi2 » September 12th, 2018, 6:41 pm

American Chaos hasn't even been screened to critics, which is rare for a Sony Pictures Classics title (this might have something to do with how Boundaries was boycotted by the far right but still). The lack of push by Sony combined with the positive reviews for Fahrenheit 11/9 suggest that this is more or less getting dumped.

And White Boy Rick just looked like a slightly better Gotti from the trailers. The mixed reviews and long period on the shelf don't help either.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/14

Postby transformers2 » September 12th, 2018, 7:53 pm

numbersix wrote:I've started to do all my columns on a Word document now, just to avoid the dreaded crash.

I'm absolutely going to start doing the same from now on. I cheated disaster for a long time and I'm not going to let this damn server defeat me again!
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/14

Postby Ron Burgundy » September 12th, 2018, 10:34 pm

Welcome to the club Tranny! ;)

I agree with your predictions. Though i hadn't heard of this scandal for The Predator until now
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/14

Postby Buscemi2 » September 12th, 2018, 11:11 pm

It only broke recently. Olivia Munn was the one behind getting those scenes edited out.

There was a similar controversy during the James Gunn Twitter scandal when it was revealed he had been friends with another sex offender some years earlier.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/14

Postby Shrykespeare » September 13th, 2018, 8:05 pm

Weekend Theater Counts:

The Predator - 4,037 (I have a feeling this may be one of the lowest 4K+ openings ever)
A Simple Favor - 3,102
White Boy Rick - 2,504
Unbroken: Path to Redemption - 1,620
American Chaos - 26
Lizzie - n/a



Next week:

The House with a Clock in its Walls - 3,300
The Sisters Brothers - 4




Celebrity birthdays:

Guy Ritchie turned 50 on 9/10
Chris Columbus turned 60 on 9/10
Roxann Dawson turned 60 on 9/11
Jennifer Tilly turns 60 on 9/16
Happy 50th birthday Owen Wilson! (11/18/18)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/14

Postby Buscemi2 » September 13th, 2018, 11:17 pm

It's not going to be The Nut Job 2 level, Shryke.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/14

Postby W » September 14th, 2018, 6:25 am

Wait... how in the Hell is Jennifer Tilly going to be 60?
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/14

Postby Buscemi2 » September 15th, 2018, 7:46 am

Cinemascore:

Unbroken 2: The Evangelicaling: A
Paul Feig's Gone Girl 2: B+
80's Nostalgia Poverty Porn: B
Not Ice Cube's 1991 Album of the Same Name: C+
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/14

Postby Shrykespeare » September 15th, 2018, 11:55 am

Just saw your new avatar, Boosh.... I'm curious why you chose that one.


Friday Estimates

The Predator, $10.4M
A Simple Favor, $5.9M
The Nun, $5.9M
White Boy Rick, $3.5M
Crazy Rich Asians, $2.5M
Peppermint, $1.7M
The Meg, $1.0M
Searching, $1.0M
Unbroken, $820K



Weekend Projections

The Predator, $26M
The Nun, $18.5M
A Simple Favor, $16M
White Boy Rick, $9.3M
Crazy Rich Asians, $8.7M
Peppermint, $6M
The Meg, $4.3M
Searching, $3.3M
MI:Fallout, $2.4M
Chris Robin, $2.2M
Unbroken, $2.2M



Predictions/Observations:

1. The Nun will hit nine digits next weekend.
2. Crazy Rich Asians has a shot at $175M. Wow.
3. The Meg will hit $140M, but is a longshot for $150M.
4. Mission Impossible - Fallout is now officially the highest-grossing film in the franchise (though not adjusted for inflation).
5. Christopher Robin may yet squeak out $100M.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/14

Postby Buscemi2 » September 15th, 2018, 2:33 pm

It's based on the whole Grandpa Joe hate meme. I don't fully understand the hate for the character (though some decent arguments are made) because Mrs. Gloop is a far more annoying character.

During this, I remembered the scene where Mr. Gloop ate a microphone and was led to wonder if he choked to death, seeing how we never see him again.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/14

Postby Shrykespeare » September 16th, 2018, 11:14 am

I'm unaware of the Grandpa Joe hate you're talking about ... but whatever. The film is, what, 40 years old, and people are still discussing one supporting character? Sigh.


Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - The Predator, $24.0M
4 points - The Nun, $18.2M
3 points - A Simple Favor, $16.0M
2 points - White Boy Rick, $8.8M
1 point - Crazy Rich Asians, $8.7M
Peppermint, $6.1M
The Meg, $3.8M
Searching, $3.2M
Unbroken: Path to Redemption, $2.3M
Mission: Impossible - Fallout, $2.3M



PTA:
5 points - The Predator
4 points - A Simply Favor
3 points - The Nun
2 points - White Boy Rick
1 point - Crazy Rich Asians

American Chaos managed a PTA of $306, earning less than $8.000 in 26 theaters. Ugh.

No word on Lizzie.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/14

Postby Buscemi2 » September 16th, 2018, 11:27 am

The whole theory is about how a lot of the plot is caused by Grandpa Joe being lazy, manipulative, and incompetent and much of Charlie's issues could have been easily avoided had he not pretended to be bedridden for twenty years.

And Grandpa Joe's a pretty big character. He's a larger character than the other winners not named Charlie.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/14

Postby numbersix » September 16th, 2018, 11:39 am

Pretty sure Lizzie takes the PTA top spot this weekend
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