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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/8-10

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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/8-10

Postby numbersix » August 7th, 2018, 3:28 am

Last week proved that as long as Tom Cruise is running, there’s no stopping him. No wonder American Made under-performed. YOU CAN’T RUN IN A PLANE, UNIVERSAL!!! So Cruise ran on auto-pilot through Mission Impossible: Fallout and the fans lay down to let him trample over them and their cash, as the film held incredibly well, making $35m in its 2nd weekend. Roll on Mission Impossible 7: Treadmill Time. Elsewhere, the wide openers all failed to meet expectations. Christopher Robin poohed all over itself and earned $25m, although audiences love it and WOM should ensure a strong hold. The Spy Who Dumped Me got its ass kicked by the Abba fans, hitting only $12m. Someone forgot to tell Fox that it wasn’t 2011 and so their YA film The Darkest Minds tanked. And Trump’s media disciple, the truth-averse Dinesh D’Souza directed the lowest opener of his career to date. This week 4 more flicks race after Cruise.




“You know what the problem with Jaws was? The shark wasn’t big enough”. Peter Griffin’s opinion has now become a film, The Meg (Warner Bros). Jason Statham fights a shark the size of an island. That’s kind of all you need to know. This type of film usually premiers on Syfy, but somehow it’s getting a wide release and somehow it’s getting traction, mostly because of the substantial Chinese money invested in it. Or maybe people want some no-brain fun that for once doesn’t feature The Rock. But before you snap this film up, I’d be wary of the current predictions. It shouldn’t go much beyond $20m in its opening weekend and $50m total. That’ll be around 8 T5 points, 3 PTA, and an IMDB in the high 5s. That makes it an okay pick in Ultimate ($12-14) and BO (12/13), but you might get better results elsewhere.




You know what the best way to treat a nonsense internet rumour is? Make it real! Peter Griffin’s logic is once again prevalent in Slender Man (Sony/Screen Gems), a horror based on an internet urban legend. Here, 4 girls try to debunk the myth only for it to be very real, and moderately scary. Directed by Stomp the Yard’s Sylvain White, this is another film that’s also tracking better than expected, perhaps because of the lack of supernatural horror besides the slightly arty Hereditary. And despite this and The Meg gunning for the same audience, apparently this is appealing to teens while Mega-Shark is baiting older men. While this won’t be Screen Gem’s next Don’t Breathe, it should open in the mid teens, top out at about $35m, earning you 4-5 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a low 6 IMDB. In the June and July weeks, it might be worth it as a slate-filler in Ult and BO, although the $11 price tag in the August leagues might be a stretch.




Coming out tomorrow is Dog Days, released by LD Entertainment, a production company returning to the world of (self) distribution with this gem. It’s a series of various stories connected by dog ownership. Superstar Vanessa Hudgens headlines. Even at the lowly cost of $5/6, don’t even bother. Just put this disease-riddled puppy down.




BlacKKKlansman (Focus) marks the return of Spike Lee to racially-themed quality cinema. Based on a true story of an African-American cop who infiltrates the KKK in 1970s Colorado, the film stars footballer John David Washington and Adam Driver. Since its debut in Cannes the comedic crime film has been collecting glowing reviews and major buzz. However, before you twirl in joy, Focus are releasing it in 1500 theatres, making it a frustrating mid-level release. Focus can handle larger releases, but you’re going to need a huge PTA to justify picking it up in Ultimate. In BO, however, the $5 price tag might reap some impressive rewards.




Finally, on the limited front Madeline’s Madeline (Oscilloscope), an annoyingly titled drama about a young actress whose dedication to her art causes reality and fantasy to blur. Coming out of Sundance with positive reviews, this should top the weekend if Cameron Post doesn’t come out that much. But beware Oscilloscope, whose films tend not to perform well when expanding. 4-5 PTA points are the best it can get, but that’s only for $2/3, so consider it as a slate-filler.


Predictions for the weekend

1. The Meg - $19m
2. Mission Impossible: Fallout - $18m
3. Slender Man - $15m
4. Christopher Robin- $13m
5. Blackkklansman- $6m

PTA: Miseducation of Cameron Post, Madeline’s Madeline, The Meg, MI6, Blackkklansman


Next weekend Walleye peeks at some Crazy Rich Asians, , Mark Wahlberg’s actioner Mile 22, caveman survival story Alpha, and 3 limited releases: Juliet Naked (there are 2 things wrong with this title), We the Animals, and The Wife.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/8

Postby Buscemi2 » August 7th, 2018, 5:01 am

There's been no marketing whatsoever for Slender Man. Combined with Sony basically dumping it and the film coming five years too late to capitalize on the memes, it might not even make $3 million for the weekend. They'll probably wish they'd sold it to Netflix or an independent as was rumored.

And I don't understand why Dog Days is opening so wide. Very little marketing and the cast is made up of generic TV actors that couldn't be bothered to carry a film on their own (most of the posters focus on the dogs instead). This might have been better off as your typical day-and-date title with some reshoots to beef up the content.

On the other hand, I think BlacKkKlansman's going to surprise. Focus has marketed this one extremely well and the reviews have been good. I think it's got a $15 million opening in it.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/8

Postby Shrykespeare » August 9th, 2018, 7:46 pm

Theater counts:

The Meg - 4,118 :shock:
Dog Days (Wed.) - 2,442
Slender Man - 2,358
BlacKkKlansman - 1,512



Next week:

Crazy Rich Asians - 3,200+





Milestone birthdays (August 9, 1967 was a big day):

Gilliam Anderson turned 50 on 8/9
Eric Bana ALSO turned 50 on 8/9
McG ALSO ALSO turned 50 on 8/9
Happy 30th birthday Anna Popplewell! (12/16/18)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/8

Postby Ron Burgundy » August 9th, 2018, 8:20 pm

The Meg should win this weekend- easy with that theatre count

and based on growing buzz, i think BlackKlaansman will top $10, maybe even $12, if pooh bear underperforms in its 2nd week, it could snap up 3rd!?
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/8

Postby Walleye413 » August 11th, 2018, 1:15 am

Lesson of the day kids - always bet on the Shark movie.

How?

Seriously I thought this was Snakes on a Plane at best.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/8

Postby Chienfantome » August 11th, 2018, 4:20 am

Yeah those first numbers are crazy, never thought it'd go that high.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/8

Postby Buscemi2 » August 11th, 2018, 6:28 am

Cinemascores:

BlacKkKlansman: A-
Dog Days (polled Wednesday): A-
The Meg: B+
Slender Man: D-

And something interesting I noticed: Eighth Grade increased 6% on Wednesday from its Tuesday numbers. Why is this of note? Because A24 had theatres play one evening showing for free to increase awareness (also, said screenings were all ages and did not have the R rating restriction).
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/8

Postby Shrykespeare » August 11th, 2018, 11:28 am

HOLY FUCK.


Friday Estimates

The Meg, $16.5M
Mission: Impossible, $5.3M
Slender Man, $4.8M
Christopher Robin, $3.6M
Spy Who Dumped Me, $1.8M
Mamma Mia, $1.7M
Equalizer 2, $1.4M
Hotel Transylvania 3, $1.4M
Ant-Man and the Wasp, $1.2M




Weekend Projections

The Meg, $40M
Mission: Impossible, $19M
Christopher Robin, $13.1M
Slender Man, $10.8M
BlackKKlansman, $10M
Spy Who Dumped Me, $5.9M
Mamma Mia, $5.6M
Equalizer 2, $5.2M
Hotel Transylvania 3, $4.8M
Ant-Man and the Wasp, $3.8M



Questions/comments:

1. Can The Meg do $100M???
2. MI:6 has a definite shot at $200M.
3. Mamma Mia cracks $100M.
4. Equalizer 2 has an outside shot at $100M.
5. Hotel Tranny 3 will hit $150M, but not much more than that.
6. Ant-Man hit $200M... success or disappointment?
7. Incredibles 2 is just $11M shy of $600M. Can it make it?
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/8

Postby Buscemi2 » August 11th, 2018, 3:38 pm

The Meg might be frontloaded due to fans of the book (I was reading a Wired article about how a petition by the readers was a major catalyst in getting the film made) but there's not much breakout material throughout the rest of August outside of Crazy Rich Asians, so it could hit $100 million barring major drops.

As for Ant-Man and Incredibles 2, Disney will certainly try their hardest.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/8

Postby Walleye413 » August 11th, 2018, 6:31 pm

I think Ant-man and Hotel Tranny are still successes, in a normal world. In our blockbuster or bust world they may only make a small profit, but I guess any profit is a win.

Weird though, MI6 may not make that much more but it feels like a bigger success because people really enjoyed the film.

For the Meg, I think today's take will be telling. Just how front loaded is this thing? I've been wrong on every prediction for it so far, so based on that I'm guessing it makes 150 :D
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/8

Postby Shrykespeare » August 12th, 2018, 12:35 pm

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - The Meg, $44.5M
4 points - Mission: Impossible - Fallout, $20.0M
3 points - Disney's Christopher Robin, $12.4M
2 points - Slender Man, $11.3M
1 point - BlacKkKlansman, $10.8M
The Spy Who Dumped Me, $6.6M
Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, $5.8M
The Equalizer 2, $5.5M
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, $5.1M
Ant-Man and the Wasp, $4.0M

12. Dog Days, $2.6M



PTA:
5 points - Madeline's Madeline (Great call, Six!)
4 points - The Meg
3 points - BlacKkKlansman
2 points - Mission: Impossible - Fallout
1 point - Slender Man

Cameron Post finished at #6.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/8

Postby numbersix » August 12th, 2018, 4:56 pm

Man, I did not see The Meg coming. $45m opening is insane. What was the draw?
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/8

Postby Shrykespeare » August 12th, 2018, 6:04 pm

I didn't even pick it in my Top 10 in Box Office Champs' fall season. Which means I'm already done.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/8

Postby numbersix » August 12th, 2018, 6:08 pm

Me neither. That's 100m we're both missing out on.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 8/8

Postby Shrykespeare » August 13th, 2018, 6:54 pm

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - The Meg, $45.4M (5)
4 points - Mission: Impossible - Fallout, $19.4M (14)
3 points - Disney's Christopher Robin, $13.0M (7)
2 points - Slender Man, $11.4M (2)
1 point - BlacKkKlansman, $10.8M (1)
The Spy Who Dumped Me, $6.5M
Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, $5.9M
The Equalizer 2, $5.4M
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, $5.2M
Ant-Man and the Wasp, $4.1M

12. Dog Days, $2.6M



PTA:
5 points - Madeline's Madeline, $18,009 (5)
4 points - The Meg, $11,025 (4)
3 points - BlacKkKlansman, $7,173 (3)
2 points - Mission: Impossible - Fallout, $4,977 (10)
1 point - The Miseducation of Cameron Post, $4,948 (6)
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