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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/13

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/13

Postby transformers2 » July 11th, 2018, 2:48 pm

Put another check in the win column for Marvel.

Ant-Man and the Wasp continued the infallible comic giant's massive 2018 with a $75.8 mil debut atop the box office this past weekend. While the Infinity War-bump wasn't quite as much as some industry fatcats expected, it still marked a notable improvement over its predecessor, which registered a $57.2 mil opening back in July 2015 and currently looks like it has a pretty good shot to become the 8th consecutive MCU title to clear $200 mil domestically.

July 4th week's other new wide release The First Purge performed as expected with a $17.4 mil weekend haul ($31.3 mil 5-day), which was good enough for 4th place behind blockbuster holdovers Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom($28.6 mil)and The Incredibles 2 ($28.4 mil). The 4th installment in Blumhouse's overtly political action horror franchise appears set to break the trend of each subsequent entry earning more than its predecessor, but it should still end up with a respectable domestic run in the 50-60 mil range.

Meanwhile, the limited release market's recent turnaround continued with Boots Riley's Sorry to Bother You-which pulled in an excellent PTA of $45,554 from 16 theaters. It'll be interesting to see if Annapurna's bold choice to forgo a slow rollout in favor of an aggressive, relatively wide expansion (approximately 700 theaters) in its 2nd week of release end up paying off for this satire that has earned a lot of praise for its originality and social commentary.

Wide Releases:
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Rejoice cinephiles because this weekend Adam Sandler's nearly 3-year stint in captivity on the world's streaming service dashboards is over!!! That's right motherfuckers, the Sandman's wide array of dynamic, aesthetically-pleasing accents are back on the silver screen where they belong with Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation (Sony/Columbia).

After centuries of not leaving the walls of the popular monster hotel he runs, Dracula (Sandler) is convinced by his beloved daughter Mavis (Selena Gomez) finally convinces her overworked father to embark on a well-deserved vacation aboard a cruise ship. This aquatic adventure soon turns into hell on the high seas when it's revealed the ship is being captained by Ericka Van Helsing (Kathryn Hahn), the great granddaughter of Dracula's archnemesis (Jim Gaffigan). So much for that relaxing vacation!

Despite its name recognition, Hotel Transylvania 3 is facing a number of its obstacles that its predecessors didn't face. For starters, the prior entries opened on the not overly competitive of the final weekend September and played well through Halloween thanks to the large collection of monsters in its cast. The lack of a spooky season bump and relentlessly crowded summer marketplace could prove to be detrimental to its staying power, especially with The Incredibles 2 continuing to put up healthy numbers nearly a month into its run.

3quels also seem to mark the point where most animated series not named Toy Story or Shrek start to regress at the box office. Hit franchises including Despicable Me, Kung Fu Panda and Cars all bottomed out with their 3rd installment, which is definitely a concerning sign for the BO prospects of Dracula's Family Vacation.

Even with these possible obstacles and red flags, Hotel Transylvania 3 should end up doing fine. Both of the prior films cleared $140 mil at the BO, advertising/WOM seems to be pretty good and it's got a nearly month to do some damage before another film enters (Disney's Mission to Turn Winnie the Pooh Into Nightmare Fodder.... I mean Christopher Robin) the family film fray. When I looked into my hazy crystal ball of predictions, I saw Hotel Transylvania posting a $41 mil opening, 10-13 top 5 points, 5 or 6 PTA and final gross around $150 mil. I decided to roll with the slightly more expensive Ant-Man and Mission-Impossible on my slates, but Hotel Transylvania 3 will more than likely prove to be a decent value for its approximately $30 price tag in both formats.


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Skyscraper (Universal) holds the distinction of being the only Super Bowl spot that really stuck with me this year. That money shot of The Rock doing his best Vin Diesel impression by jumping from a crane suspended 6 zillion feet in the air through the glass window of a skyscraper (with a prosthetic leg no less!) was one of the more beautifully absurd pieces of teaser trailer footage I've ever seen. Based on that teaser, its status as an "original" project in a summer full of sequels and Johnson's pretty consistent drawing power, I figured this PG-13 actioner about a man trying to save his family from a building full of terrorists in China would be a smash hit. Now that it's about to come out, that optimism has gone out the window.

Skyscraper has the misfortunate off coming out during a period where action movies are straight-up FLOODING theaters. Sure you could argue that The Equalizer 2, Mission-Impossible: Fallout and the already released Sicario 2 are geared more towards older audiences, but the fact still remains that it's coming out at a time where a ton of titles are going after a similar audience and that will almost certainly lower its odds of reaching blockbuster status. You also have to consider that there might be some fatigue building around Johnson's brand right. He appears in huge movies like this at a pretty absurd clip (this is arriving exactly 3 months after the release of Rampage and it seems like it's only a matter of time before his effortless charisma will start to grate on people. So basically my dreams of leaving the fucking basement of the B division in the FY draft league are well on there way to looking like the structure the Mr.Johnson is hanging from on the poster pictured above.

I'm now firmly convinced that Skyscraper will end up posting comparable numbers to Rampage, which means an opening weekend in the high 20's to-mid 30's, 6-8 top 5 points, a PTA point or two and a final BO tally between $85-100 mil should be in the cards. At $19 in ULT and $22 in BO, I'd advise against putting this burning tower of terror on your slate.


Limited Releases:
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The 2018 edition of the Sundance Film Festival wasn't exactly setting the world ablaze with buzzworthy movies. It was actually kind of odd to experience a year where the reviews coming out of Park City wern't brimming with over-the-top enthusiasm. One of the handful titles that did pick up near-universal raves was Bo Burnham's Eight Grade (A24). The stand-up comic/musician's directorial debut raises a horrifying question : what's it like going through your awkward early teenage years in the privacy-free era of social media? 13-year old Kayla (Elsie Fisher, best known for voicing Agnes in the aforementioned Despicable Me series) has experienced a hellish final year of middle school and as the final week of class approaches, she hopes to avoid further embarrassment and awkwardness before she enters the lion's den known as high school.

I'd be very surprised if this didn't end up killing shit on the limited circuit and given the relatability of its coming-of-age premise, I wouldn't rule it out becoming a decent WOM hit once it expands either. I'm going to say with middling confidence that Eighth Grade secures at least 8 PTA points, an IMDB score in the mid-to-high 7's and a BO tally anywhere between $5-30 mil. Fit it in on any and every slate you can.


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Continuing this week's Sundance trend is Gus Van Sant's latest Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far on Foot (Amazon). This biopic dramedy tells the story of John Callahan (Joaquin Phoenix), a Portland, Oregon man who finds success as a cartoonist after he ends up wheelchair-bound following a drunk driving accident. Jonah Hill, Rooney Mara and Jack Black co-star in this potential heartwarming crowdpleaser.

As impressive as it's pedigree is, I'm not convinced that Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far on Foot will generate much business on the arthouse circuit. The reviews haven't been overly enthusiastic (74% RT, 70 Metascore), Amazon's solo releases have fared pretty poorly and while this appears to be the most accessible project he's helmed since Milk, Van Sant just doesn't have the same clout that he did at the start of this century. It's presumably low theater count should be enough for it to secure a few PTA points this weekend, but I'd be surprised if it manages much more than that. I'd much rather spend my $4 on Eighth Grade, Blindspotting or an August release with higher upside (The Wife, The Little Stranger).


Weekend Projections:
1.Hotel Transylvania 3 $41 mil
2.Ant-Man and the Wasp $37 mil
3.Skyscraper $31 mil
4.The Incredibles 2 $16 mil
5.Jurassic World $14.5 mil

PTA: Eight Grade,Hotel Transylvania 3, Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far on Foot, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Skyscraper

Tune in next week when six breaks down Denzel Washington's latest Beantown vigilante adventure, another rousing paternity drama set to the music of ABBA, a surprise Blumhouse sequel and several Sundance acquisitions.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/13

Postby numbersix » July 11th, 2018, 3:01 pm

I was higher on Skyscraper. The Rock is just unbeatable at the moment. But being nestled in between Ant Man and Cruise Man (not to mention Equalizer man next week) may make it a tough sell. Still, I'm tihnking mid 30s opening and a 80m cume. As for Hotel Tranny 3, last yeat Secret Lives of Pets wasn't affected by Dory's massive performance, so maybe there's room for a sunny vamp.

And yeah, Eighth Grade for the win. Could be the best pick of the summer if it expands slowly.

1.Hotel Transylvania 3 $44 mil
2.Skyscraper $35 mil
3.Ant-Man and the Wasp $34 mil
4.The Incredibles 2 $15 mil
5.Jurassic World $14 mil

PTA: Eight Grade, Don't Worry, Hotel Trans 3, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Skyscraper
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/13

Postby Shrykespeare » July 11th, 2018, 6:48 pm

OKay, I'm doubling down on Eighth Grade. PLus, I have it in the YL league.

God, I wish Joshua's Island was a movie...


Celebrity birthdays:

Brian Dennehy turned 80 on 7/9 (he's America's answer to Otm Shank)
Fiona Shaw turned 60 on 7/10
Richard Simmons turns 70 on 7/12
Michelle Rodriguez turns 40 on 7/12
Topher Grace turns 40 on 7/12
Happy 50th birthday Owen Wilson! (11/18/18)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/13

Postby Ron Burgundy » July 12th, 2018, 1:18 am

Yeah i didnt look into Eighth Grade until this week and was like oh, yeah i need this. Starting to think i should squeeze it in my July slate...decisions decisions...

Hotel Trans should do well not only as the bulk of people seen Incredibles now, Teen Titans wont take too much audience away, while Christopher Robin is more family orientated fare rather than straight up PG animated comedy so legs will be strong imo. Genndy Tartarovsky directed is just the sprinkles on top, i can see it getting as much as $50+mil easy.

Doesnt skyscraper have a pretty massive budget? Im guessing it got green lit more for its international BO power where a huge number, more than Rampage is do-able. If it was priced at $15 or less i probably would have pulled the trigger as there is only one other movie in this price range, next weeks Mamma Mia.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/13

Postby Buscemi2 » July 12th, 2018, 2:10 am

I still don't see the box office appeal of Teen Titans Go. The premise is awful (The objective is a movie ticket? Isn't that just Last Action Hero?), the animation is basically TV-like (think My Little Pony: The Movie instead of the two SpongeBob movies), and there's the vocal minority that hates the show because it's not like the previous Teen Titans series.

You think Warner Bros. would have put one of those Paul Dini-produced films out wide (they've done well in one night only specials) instead of a long-form episode of a TV show.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/13

Postby transformers2 » July 12th, 2018, 1:29 pm

Whoops, I sincerely forgot that Teen Titans! was coming out on the 27th. Oh well, I still stand by my HT3 projections.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/13

Postby Shrykespeare » July 13th, 2018, 6:41 pm

Theater counts:

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation -4,267
Skyscraper - 3,782
Eighth Grade - 4
Don't Worry He Won't Get Far on Foot - 4

Sorry to Bother You - 805



Next week:

Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! - 3,200
The Equalizer 2 - 3,000+
Unfriended: Dark Web - 1,500
Blindspotting - 14
Happy 50th birthday Owen Wilson! (11/18/18)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/13

Postby Buscemi2 » July 14th, 2018, 4:20 am

Cinemascores:

Hotel Transylvania 3: A-
Skyscraper: B+
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/13

Postby Shrykespeare » July 14th, 2018, 3:29 pm

Friday estimates

Hotel Transylvania 3, $16.6M
Skyscraper, $9.3M
Ant-Man and the Wasp, $8.4M
Incredibles 2, $4.6M
Jurassic World, $4.4M
The First Purge, $3.0M
Sorry to Bother You, $1.5M
Sicario 2, $1.0M




Weekend Projections

Hotel Transylvania 3, $43M
Ant-Man and the Wasp, $28M
Skyscraper, $25M
Incredibles 2, $15.4M
Jurassic World, $14.9M
The First Purge, $8.9M
Sorry to Bother You, $4.9M
Sicario 2, $3.5M
Uncle Drew, $3.1M
Ocean's 8, $2.9M
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/13

Postby Shrykespeare » July 15th, 2018, 12:34 pm

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, $44.1M
4 points - Ant-Man and the Wasp, $28.8M
3 points - Skyscraper, $25.5M
2 points - Incredibles 2, $16.2M
1 point - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, $15.5M
The First Purge, $9.1M
Sorry to Bother You, $4.3M
Sicario: Day of the Soldado, $3.8M
Uncle Drew, $3.2M
Ocean's 8, $2.9M



PTA:
5 points - Eighth Grade, $63K :shock:
4 points - Don't Worry He Won't Get Far on Foot, $21K
3 points - Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, $10.3K
2 points - Ant-Man and the Wasp, $6.8K
1 point - Skyscraper, $6.7K
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/13

Postby Buscemi2 » July 15th, 2018, 12:35 pm

Awkward fourteen-year-old girls are box office money, especially when directed by semi-famous comedians.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/13

Postby undeadmonkey » July 15th, 2018, 6:34 pm

i'm surprised Hotel Tranny held up so well. Usually the 3rd sequel falls flat.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/13

Postby Buscemi2 » July 15th, 2018, 6:42 pm

I think those previews helped. They certainly increased Jumanji's awareness.

I wonder what will be the next Sony/Amazon Prime cross-promotion. My bet's on Goosebumps 2.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 7/13

Postby Shrykespeare » July 16th, 2018, 6:52 pm

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, $44.1M (5)
4 points - Ant-Man and the Wasp, $29.1M (9)
3 points - Skyscraper, $24.9M (3)
2 points - Incredibles 2, $16.3M (18)
1 point - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, $16.2M (15)
The First Purge, $9.3M
Sorry to Bother You, $4.2M
Sicario: Day of the Soldado, $4.2M
Uncle Drew, $3.2M
Ocean's 8, $2.9M



PTA:
5 points - Eighth Grade, $65,949 (5)
4 points - Don't Worry He Won't Get Far on Foot, $20,835 (4)
3 points - Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, $10,330 (3)
2 points - Ant-Man and the Wasp, $6,918 (6)
1 point - Skyscraper, $6,585 (1)
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