ReelSociety Forums


Your home for all Reel and Real discussions.

R. Burgundy at the pool, dead: The Films of 5/18

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

Moderators: Buscemi, BarcaRulz, Geezer, W

R. Burgundy at the pool, dead: The Films of 5/18

Postby Ron Burgundy » May 15th, 2018, 10:08 pm

Hello all eager playas!

Burgundy back at the death to bring you today's story: the 2nd coming of a Dead pool. But first lets recap last weekends forgettable tale.
An 18.2% drop equated to a $138.6M total, still starring in 1st place (for Top 5 & PTA, 15 points now) was Infinity War which raked in another $62M for a massive $548 total. The race for 2nd was closer than expected, Life of the Party took it by a tiny margin with $17.8M over Breaking In ($17.6M). It would seem that either audiences are now tired of the same ol schlock (is that a word?) from Melissa McCarthy or anything the resembles a girls night out would need hot gossip to come out of the gates with fire. Rounding out the Top 5 was Overboard (6 Top 5) and A Quiet Place ($13 in our game)- which has now crossed the $170M barrier from its small $17M budget- who would have thought it was capable of getting a 10X+ multiplier?!
The PTA numbers had The Seagull collecting 4 points, Beast: 3, Sollers Point: 2, one of the many $2 picks in Ultimate.


Deadpool 2
Action Fox 4,200 Cinemas

Image


Back after a little over 2 years, Ryan Reynolds is Deadpool again, his most successful superhero outfit. There will be action, there will be laughs- however will there be as much excitement as the original? There's no doubt it will dethrone last 3 weeks king and theres certainly an audience out there for superhero's, Deadpool being fowl mouthed and witty will give it a different vibe so im confident theres no fatigue for this genre, unlike similar modern action ala Transformers or The Rock's schlock.
Giving it some star power helps too, Josh Brolin, Terry Crews, Brad Pitt? and Bill Skaasgard give it a major boost.
But what can it produce on opening weekend & how will it hold against upcoming competition like Solo and Jurassic World?
I think we are looking at an opening of $85M, with legs to take it to the $320-$350 range. Thats decent, very decent. But you cannot choose several tentpoles to anchor your slate. It's priced at $45 in Box Office- cheaper than JW or Solo, about the same as The Incredibles with more weeks to play. It will win the PTA race and gather more next weekend. If you like a sure fire safe option with some leg room, this is the one.


Show Dogs
Comedy Global Road 3,145

Image

[youtube]https://youtu.be/eT9eWtb7C4c[/youtube]

Here's a treat for you dog lovers without a bone, or a brain. Maybe some toddlers will like it too. I dunno. I know some of you are thinking, Beverly Hills Chihuahua- but as our very own sage alluded to earlier: its not Disney. It does have some star power, Shaq is in it. So, ontop of a paltry imdb rating, you will get a couple of Top 5 and a lousy box office take...run away!!!


Book Club
Comedy Paramount 2,800

Image

[youtube]https://youtu.be/LDxgPIsv6sY[/youtube]

I know it says comedy, but please. 4 old ladies read 50 fifty shades of grey and it changes their lives? Im less excited about this than last year's Going In Style, the gender opposite movie. However, its not aimed for men and the two words: counter programming, instantly spring to mind. It has some of the big names of yesteryear: Diane Keaton and Jane Fonda to name a couple which should drag in some of those people with who would be having dinner at 4pm- perfect for a lunchtime viewing. It may not overtake Avengers, but it should be a lock for No. 3 and $40M does not seem out of the question. Although my advice is save your spare $ for another mid tier flick such as Hereditary or a better counter program bet like Mamma Mia 2.


Now on the limited releases

First Reformed
Thriller A24

Image



Ethan Hawke is a priest who has a member of his church commit suicide, on top of that his son dies. So the man is in some grief. Add to that some religious and economic undertones give the film some flesh. It's standing on a 7.0 rating and A24 has been doing pretty good so i think this is a decent chance for 4 PTA points, possibly more next weekend. There are plenty of limited releases in the summer so you have to weigh up but this is not a bad choice.


Pope Francis - A Man of His Word
Documentary Focus Features 350

Image

The ^ says more or less all you need to know...but one thing. Its directed by Wim Wenders. And currently stands at 4.0 on imdb with a Metacritic score of 56. For $3 in ultmate, the final nail in the cross is releasing at 350 cinemas. Pass.


On Chesil Beach
Drama Bleecker Street

Image

With 2 big rising stars Emily Watson and Saoirse Ronan (how the hell do you pronouce her name anyways?) this is a sneaky but unlikely chance to topple First Reformed. Based on a novel, set in the 60s, a young couple have some issues on their wedding night. Currenly sitting on 6.3 on imdb. Keep in mind the tagline: "This is how the entire course of a life can be changed: by doing nothing", that doesn't exactly sound like its gonna set the world on fire. For $3, there's better choices out there IMO.


Top 5 prediction
1. Deadpool - $85M
2. Avengers - $37M
3. Book Club - $10M
4. Show Dogs - $8M
5. Breaking In - $8M

PTA - Deadpool, First Reformed, Avengers, On Chesil Beach, Book Club


Thats it from me. Stay Classy!
“One time I wrestled a giraffe to the ground with my bare hands.” — Dale
User avatar
Ron Burgundy
Gunnery Sgt. Hartman
 
Posts: 2088
Joined: November 23rd, 2009, 7:27 am
Location: Perth, Western Australia

Advertisement

 

Re: R. Burgundy at the pool, dead: The Films of 5/18

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » May 15th, 2018, 11:21 pm

Ron Burgundy wrote:With 2 big rising stars Emily Watson and Saoirse Ronan (how the hell do you pronouce her name anyways?)



It's so simple!
https://youtu.be/9xCr6IQtYqk?t=1m25s
Alexandra Daddario: Eyes of a Demon, Face of My Future Ex-Wife
User avatar
BanksIsDaFuture
Alex
 
Posts: 5975
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 4:09 pm

Re: R. Burgundy at the pool, dead: The Films of 5/18

Postby Buscemi2 » May 15th, 2018, 11:24 pm

First Reformed is supposed to be Paul Schrader's best in years. Expect some strong results on this one.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.
User avatar
Buscemi2
Peter Gibbons
 
Posts: 1419
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: R. Burgundy at the pool, dead: The Films of 5/18

Postby W » May 15th, 2018, 11:36 pm

I could see Deadpool opening a little lower than the original just because of the Disney sandwich, but $50 M lower? Word of mouth, anticipation, and buzz has been as good if not better than the first.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
User avatar
W
Jack Torrance
 
Posts: 6561
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 4:37 pm

Re: R. Burgundy at the pool, dead: The Films of 5/18

Postby Buscemi2 » May 15th, 2018, 11:43 pm

I'm thinking Deadpool 2 will be more frontloaded. Audiences know what to expect this time and reviews don't seem to be as positive.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.
User avatar
Buscemi2
Peter Gibbons
 
Posts: 1419
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: R. Burgundy at the pool, dead: The Films of 5/18

Postby Shrykespeare » May 16th, 2018, 4:18 am

I think it's SHIR-suh ROW-nan.


Celebrity Birthdays:

David Krumholtz turned 40 on 5/15
Jim Sturgess turned 40 on 5/16
Nikki Reed turns 30 on 5/17
Grace Jones turns 70 on 5/19
Timothy Olyphant turns 50 on 5/20
Happy 60th birthday Tim Burton! (8/25/18)
User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
 
Posts: 11764
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: R. Burgundy at the pool, dead: The Films of 5/18

Postby numbersix » May 16th, 2018, 4:24 am

I think $85 mil is way too low for Deadpool 2's opening. The first was a surpris hit and it's only won over more people since then, so that should result ina huge opening, especially a May one. I'm thinking higher than the first film's Feb opening, but as Boosch said, the legs won't be as long because of Solo next week.



Top 5 prediction
1. Deadpool - $150M
2. Avengers - $30M
3. Book Club - $10M
4. Life of the Party - $7M
5. Breaking In - $7M

PTA - Deadpool, First Reformed, On Chesil Beach, Avengers, Book Club
User avatar
numbersix
Keyser Soze
 
Posts: 9562
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: R. Burgundy at the pool, dead: The Films of 5/18

Postby Buscemi2 » May 18th, 2018, 3:11 am

Deadpool 2 looks to do $15 million on Thursday night. Numbers could get as high as $18 million.

Meanwhile, Thursday night numbers on Book Club have lead tracking to be revised to high teens to low 20's. Paramount's already won on this pick-up (I have to imagine they've been the most profitable studio this year, between selling The Cloverfield Paradox for $50 million, the millions made on A Quiet Place, and buying this one for peanuts).
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.
User avatar
Buscemi2
Peter Gibbons
 
Posts: 1419
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: R. Burgundy at the pool, dead: The Films of 5/18

Postby W » May 18th, 2018, 9:14 am

Buscemi2 wrote:Deadpool 2 looks to do $15 million on Thursday night. Numbers could get as high as $18 million.

Meanwhile, Thursday night numbers on Book Club have lead tracking to be revised to high teens to low 20's. Paramount's already won on this pick-up (I have to imagine they've been the most profitable studio this year, between selling The Cloverfield Paradox for $50 million, the millions made on A Quiet Place, and buying this one for peanuts).


You mean besides DIsney. Mistakes were made (Wrinkle in Time), but I have to think think Marvel has put the further ahead of anyone ever at this point in the year even if you don't count 2018 Last Jedi/Coco numbers.

I saw somewhere that Paramount broke even on Cloverfield and got rid of it just to wash their hands of it. It really was a terrible movie. One of the worst that I was very excited for. Paramount also lost on Sherlock Gnomes and Annihilation.

On a side note, WB is still making money on Hubble 3D. $200K this year and it released in March of 2010. Also $150K for Under the Sea 3D that was released in '09. I wonder how profitable this kind of stuff actually is. They have like ten of them that they're running right now.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
User avatar
W
Jack Torrance
 
Posts: 6561
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 4:37 pm

Re: R. Burgundy at the pool, dead: The Films of 5/18

Postby Buscemi2 » May 18th, 2018, 5:11 pm

I'd imagine Disney spends a lot more on marketing. Percentage-wise, Paramount has to be ahead of Disney (and you forgot that Sherlock Gnomes was a co-production between Paramount and MGM, so Paramount did not lose as much on it).
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.
User avatar
Buscemi2
Peter Gibbons
 
Posts: 1419
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: R. Burgundy at the pool, dead: The Films of 5/18

Postby Shrykespeare » May 19th, 2018, 12:32 pm

Friday Estimates

Deadpool 2, $53.3M
Avengers: Infinity War, $7.2M
Book Club, $4.7M
LIfe of the Party, $2.2M
Breaking In, $1.9M
Show Dogs, $1.4M
Overboard, $1.1M
A Quiet Place, $1.1M



Weekend Projections:

Deadpool 2, $133.5M
Avengers: Infinity War, $28.3M
Book Club, $13.7M
Life of the Party, $7.4M
Breaking In, $6.5M
Show Dogs, $6.2M
Overboard, $4.7M
A Quiet Place, $4.2M
Rampage, $1.4M
I Feel Pretty, $1.3M
Happy 60th birthday Tim Burton! (8/25/18)
User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
 
Posts: 11764
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: R. Burgundy at the pool, dead: The Films of 5/18

Postby Shrykespeare » May 20th, 2018, 12:35 pm

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Deadpool 2, $125.0M
4 points - Avengers: Infinity War, $28.7M (almost at $600M)
3 points - Book Club, $12.5M
2 points - Life of the Party, $7.7M
1 point - Breaking In, $6.5M
Show Dogs, $6.0M
Overboard, $4.7M
A Quiet Place, $4.0M
Rampage, $1.5M
RBG, $1.3M


So DP2 doesn't QUITE beat it's predecessor for the all-time largest OW for an R-rated movie, but it does squeak by IT for #2.



PTA:
5 points - Deadpool 2
4 points - First Reformed
3 points - Avengers: Infinity War
2 points - The Seagull
1 point - Book Club

The re-release of 2001: A Space Odyssey managed $50K in four theaters. Wow!

On Chesil Beach and Pope Francis managed poor PTA numbers.
Happy 60th birthday Tim Burton! (8/25/18)
User avatar
Shrykespeare
Site Admin
 
Posts: 11764
Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
Location: Glendale, AZ

Re: R. Burgundy at the pool, dead: The Films of 5/18

Postby Walleye413 » May 20th, 2018, 4:24 pm

I really thought Pope Francis was going to do well. Quite surprised by a lot of things this weekend actually. I didn't think First Reformed would do nearly as well as it did, and I figured Deadpool would do better. Everyone must be waiting for Solo :)
User avatar
Walleye413
Borat
 
Posts: 1296
Joined: November 17th, 2009, 1:17 am

Re: R. Burgundy at the pool, dead: The Films of 5/18

Postby numbersix » May 20th, 2018, 5:19 pm

That On Chesil Beach figure is wrong on BOM. Think they put its PTA into its weekend total by mistake.
User avatar
numbersix
Keyser Soze
 
Posts: 9562
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: R. Burgundy at the pool, dead: The Films of 5/18

Postby Buscemi2 » May 20th, 2018, 5:26 pm

Pope Francis didn't get very good reviews and the premise didn't sound particularly interesting for a theatrical release. Had Wenders not directed it, it would have been a segment on 60 Minutes or something.

And how do you keep underestimating all these non-Evangelical religious films, Walleye? You thought Menashe last year would do nothing, you saw Disobedience not finding an audience, and now you're telling me that First Reformed, with its near-unanimous praise and marketable cast, wouldn't do well. People in big cities go to these movies because there's a selling point to them and you're not seeing them come from the studio sausage factory. Not all religious films have to be long sermons that demonize everything that's not them.

And speaking of Solo, what is with the alt-right community calling it Soylo? Are they just grasping at straws again while waiting for the next Purge movie to open?
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.
User avatar
Buscemi2
Peter Gibbons
 
Posts: 1419
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Next

Return to Speare's Tips

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest