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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 04/11-1

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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 04/11-1

Postby numbersix » April 10th, 2018, 2:14 pm

There’s nothing like a complete shock to get you all excited about box office biz. A Quiet Place was a deafening din in cinemas around the world, with its great marketing campaign and positive reviews luring audiences in, and good word of mouth ensuring a healthy life as possibly the biggest horror we’ll see in 2018.

Sadly, that means this week will fail to have any real surprises, unless by surprise you mean complete failure, which is totally on the cards.




Rampage (Warner Bros) is an adaptation of the classic arcade game in which monsters brainlessly battled each other. Warner locked in on the brainless aspect to make a FX-driven action film in which The Rock teams up with a giant gorilla to battle monsters. Genius. The film is trying to capitalise on video game nostalgia, much like Ready Player One did (in a less coked-up EVERYTHING IS AWESOME manner).

The film had potential to be an April hit, but the move of MCU #85 to late April forced the great ape into retreat, and closer to Spielberg’s 80s bukkake party. Still, especially with The Rock being involved, this film could perform a little like Pixels, another hollow attempt at reviving the moribund hearts of men in their 40s. So an opening in the mid 30s but a skyscraper-sized collapse seeing it end up around the 80m mark. But that may result in 13 T5 points, 3 PTA points, and a low 6s IMDB score, making it worth it if you’re a mid-level manic in Ultimate, but its $19/17 price in BO is too damn high.




Oh, what a bridesmaid Truth or Dare (Universal) will turn out to be. The Blumhouse production is based around the sex-drive starting teen game, only in this version something supernatural kills anyone who doesn’t play along. It’s got a Ouija vibe to it, being another teen-led horror about something familiar, and the premise is interesting enough. But then A Quiet Place skulked out of nowhere and is silently killing this film. Who is going to see this when there’s a bigger, better horror out there? And will fans of the first flock to the next? Unlikely. I think a $10m opening and $25m close is all this can muster up, and it’ll just manage to hit the Top 5 this week. A few months ago I was excited about this one, but truth be told you can do better.

Next up is Sgt Stu…. ah who cares…




On the limited front, the most intriguing film is Beirut (Bleecker Street), a political thriller set during the Lebanese Civil War. It stars John Hamm and Rose Pike, and was directed by Brad Anderson (The Call, The Machinist) and written by Tony Gilroy. Having received plenty of acclaim when it opened in Sundance, this could be a nice little earner on the PTA front, despite its Wednesday release. 6 or 7 PTA points and a decent IMDB score could be in the cards, so it’s well worth the punt for $3 or $4.




Finally, The Rider gets released by Sony Classics. It’s about an injured cowboy who takes a long hard look at this life. And no computer game apes appear. The intimate movie came out in Cannes last year to much acclaim, although the buzz has dropped considerably. It may get some asses on seats, but it won’t be a PTA minefield.



My predictions for the weekend
1. Rampage - $33m
2. A Quiet Place - $24m
3. Ready Player One - $12m
4. Truth or Dare - $10m
5. Blockers - $10m


PTA: Beirut, You Were Never, Rampage, A Quiet Place, The Rider


Next week we’ll see Tranny take a look at Amy Schumer vehicle I Feel Pretty, comedy sequel Super Troopers 2, thriller Traffik, limited releases Redoubtable and The Devil and Father Amorth, and possibly animation Duck Duck Goose and nature doc Dolphins. Hopefully the 4/20 inspired haze will inspire him.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 04/

Postby Buscemi2 » April 10th, 2018, 2:24 pm

I can't recall an extremely wide release PG-13 horror film in recent memory with as little buzz as Truth or Dare. The premise is dated for 2018 (this story might have worked in 1998) and Lucy Hale's career peaked midway through the run of Pretty Little Liars (I'm convinced this film was written for Selena Gomez and Hale got cast as she looks similar). Not even the Friday the 13th date seems to helping the film.

It might end up under $10 million for the weekend, even in 3,000 theatres.

As for Rampage, I'd expect more Tomb Raider than Ready Player One. One good weekend followed by a quick drop.

And on Sgt. Stubby, I'm thinking it's going to play like The Oogieloves did. No marketing (all I've seen are some unappealing posters) and it's from a first-time distributor going all in without the infrastructure to do so. PTA's will be shockingly low on this one.

As for the 4/20 releases, it seems like Dolphins is being saved for Disney's streaming service while Duck Duck Goose is either getting dumped or will open at a later date (Global Road seems to be more interested in pushing its summer releases right now).
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 04/

Postby Buscemi2 » April 11th, 2018, 9:02 am

Beirut is opening in 710 theatres today (and adding 44 more theatres on Friday). You might not have wanted this for PTA points.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 04/

Postby Shrykespeare » April 11th, 2018, 9:32 am

Buscemi2 wrote:Beirut is opening in 710 theatres today (and adding 44 more theatres on Friday). You might not have wanted this for PTA points.


Yikes, really? Might be worth picking up in BO then...
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 04/

Postby Buscemi2 » April 11th, 2018, 10:10 am

Box Office Mojo confirmed it.

Meanwhile, it looks like Borg vs. McEnroe (not in the game but of note) is not opening wide this weekend. It's not playing near me (and Neon titles are well-promoted here, Gemini actually showed last week) and only one theatre in New York is getting it (IFC Center, which tends to mainly show smaller films in their tiny auditoriums).
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 04/

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » April 11th, 2018, 1:16 pm

numbersix wrote: It stars John Hamm and Rose Pike.


La-di-da, look who's on a nickname basis with Rosamund Pike!
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 04/

Postby numbersix » April 11th, 2018, 1:17 pm

And she just calls me hot buns.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 04/

Postby Buscemi2 » April 11th, 2018, 1:57 pm

Hotbuns Handsomeface. Being specific on the details, Six.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 04/

Postby Shrykespeare » April 12th, 2018, 7:37 pm

Theater Counts:

Rampage - 4,101
Truth or Dare - 3,029
Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero - 1685
Beirut - 755
The Rider - 3

Isle of Dogs - 1,939



Next week:

I Feel Pretty - 3,200+
Super Troopers 2 - 2,000
Traffik - 1,000





Celebrity Birthdays:

Elle Fanning turned 20 on 4/9
Haley Joel Osment turned 30 on 4/10
Orlando Jones turned 50 on 4/10
Alison Williams turns 30 on 4/13
Peter Capaldi turns 60 on 4/14
Anthony Michael Hall turns 50 on 4/14
Happy 40th birthday James Franco! (4/19/18)
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 04/

Postby Buscemi2 » April 12th, 2018, 9:01 pm

That Super Troopers 2 number is low. Of course, there's been no buzz for it.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 04/

Postby Shrykespeare » April 14th, 2018, 3:09 pm

Friday Estimates

Rampage, $11.5M
A Quiet Place, $10.5M
Truth or Dare, $8.2M
Blockers, $3.2M
Ready Player One, $2.9M
Isle of Dogs, $1.6M
Black Panther, $1.5M
I Can Only Imagine, $1.1M
Acrimony, $1.1M



Weekend Projections:

Rampage, $34M
A Quiet Place, $30M
Truth or Dare, $17M
Blockers, $11.5M
Ready Player One, $10.7M
Black Panther, $5.4M
Isle of Dogs, $4.8M
I Can Only Imagine, $4M
Acrimony, $3.7M
Chappaquiddick, $2.1M
Beirut, $1.9M


PTA:
A Quiet Place, $8.4K
Rampage, $8.3K
Truth or Dare, $5.6K
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 04/

Postby Shrykespeare » April 15th, 2018, 1:41 pm

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Rampage, $34.5M
4 points - A Quiet Place, $32.6M
3 points - Truth or Dare, $19.1M
2 points - Ready Player One, $11.2M
1 point - Blockers, $10.3M
Black Panther, $5.3M
Isle of Dogs, $5.0M
I Can Only Imagine, $3.8M
TP's Acrimony, $3.7M
Chappaquiddick, $3.0M

13. Beirut, $1.7M

This puts AQP very close to $100M in only its second weekend. Besides IT, what was the last horror flick to achieve blockbuster status this quickly??



PTA:
5 points - The Rider
4 points - A Quiet Place
3 points - Rampage
2 points - You Were Never Really Here
1 point - Truth or Dare
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 04/

Postby Walleye413 » April 16th, 2018, 1:27 pm

With all the duds we've had this year, it's crazy to think that Truth or Dare opens at 19 million and that's kind of a disappointment. One 3 and 1 points for Ultimate. Plus for Blumhouse it's already profitable. Weird year.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 04/

Postby Shrykespeare » April 16th, 2018, 6:56 pm

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Rampage, $35.8M (5)
4 points - A Quiet Place, $33.0M (9)
3 points - Truth or Dare, $18.7M (3)
2 points - Ready Player One, $11.5M (11)
1 point - Blockers, $10.8M (4)
Black Panther, $5.8M
Isle of Dogs, $5.5M
I Can Only Imagine, $4.1M
TP's Acrimony, $3.7M
Chappaquiddick, $3.1M

13. Beirut, $1.7M



PTA:
5 points - The Rider, $14,081 (5)
4 points - A Quiet Place, $9,186 (8)
3 points - Rampage, $8,718 (3)
2 points - You Were Never Really Here, $6,391 (7)
1 point - Truth or Dare, $6,163 (1)
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