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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/8

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/8

Postby transformers2 » December 6th, 2017, 1:41 pm

On the traditionally quiet 1st weekend of December, American moviegoers further proved that they were in love with the Coco.

Pixar's latest easily held onto the top spot on a weekend where there were no new wide releases, bringing home $27.5 mil (a drop of just under 46%) in its second weekend of release. The Day of the Dead-themed musical has netted a solid $111.6 mil in its first 12 days of release, but is going to need some very strong holds in the coming weeks to match or exceed the nearly $250 mil Moana grossed in the same frame last year. Elsewhere, Justice League suffered another steep drop (59.5%), but still managed to finish in 2nd place with a $16.6 mil haul and feel-good sensation Wonder held onto the #3 spot with a respectable $12.1 mil 3-day as it inches towards $100 mil.

While it was a relatively quiet weekend for the wide releases, the specialty box office was set ablaze with excellent debuts from Guillermo Del Toro's latest adult fairy tale The Shape of Water and The Room biopic The Disaster Artist as well as a strong hold from potential Best Picture favorite Call Me by Your Name. The performance of these niche films once they expand wider (The Disaster Artist enters approximately 800 theaters this weekend while The Shape of Water expands to about 50) will be an interesting storyline to watch, particularly with the Golden Globe nominations being announced on Tuesday, as awards season heats up.

Wide Release:
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With every studio in town abstaining from wide releases last weekend, the 2nd weekend of December has assumed the role of Hollywood's annual pre-holiday purgatory. This year's entry into this coveted slot is Just Getting Started (Broad Green), a film that impressively checks every single box on the dump release checklist. Small (and as of a few months ago, no longer active) studio with no pull in the industry behind the release? Yep. More delays than a flight at La Guardia? Fuckin right. Generic premise and an uninspiring market campaign? Hell yeah. Cast full of talented veteran actors (Tommy Lee Jones, Morgan Freeman, Rene Russo) that appear to just be there for the paycheck? You betcha. Even though it's supposed to receive a wider release than The Disaster Artist (1,000+ theaters), I'd be surprised if Just Getting Started was able to beat it out. I'm going to say that Just Getting Started opens to about $2 mil, gets 0 PTA or Top 5 points, posts an IMDb score in the mid-to-high 5's and makes about $6 mil before its mercifully pulled from theaters around Christmas. You'd have to be a very brave soul or the biggest Jones, Freeman, Russo or Ron Shelton fan on the planet to put this on your slate.


Limited Release:
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Who would've thought that a twisted biopic about the most controversial figure in the history of figure skating would've become a dark horse awards contender? I, Tonya (Neon), which is opening in 4 theaters this weekend, didn't even have a distributor prior to its premiere at the Toronto Film Festival in September, but it gained high praise (particularly for the performances of Margot Robbie as Tonya Harding and Allison Janney as Harding's abusive mother) after it was screened which eventually led to a heated bidding war for its release rights that was won by new indie studio Neon, which releasedColossal, Ingrid Goes West and Beach Rats earlier this year. While it remains to be seen how well Neon will navigate its 1st-ever awards campaign, I, Tonya should do well in the specialty market. It has the rare luxury of being the only high-profile indie release on a December weekend and the combination of very good reviews (89% on RT, 76 Metascore) and the aforementioned awards buzz for Robbie and Janney will undoubtedly draw people into the theater. The volume of competition that enters the marketplace on Christmas weekend, rate of expansion and potential boost from awards/WOM make it hard to predict exactly how well I, Tonya will do overall, but I'm expecting it to win the PTA crown this weekend, earn at least 2 more points next weekend and post an IMDB score somewhere in the 7's. At $4 in ULT and $2-3 in BO, I, Tonya should prove to be a quality pickup in all leagues.



Weekend Projections:
1.Coco $15.5 mil
2.Justice League $8 mil
3.Wonder $7 mil
4.Thor: Ragnarok $5.5 mil
5.The Disaster Artist $4 mil

PTA: I, Tonya, The Shape of Water, Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, The Disaster Artist

Tune in next week when monkey breaks down acclaimed (and incredibly topical) documentary Miss Kiet's Children, Rainn Wilson-led indie comedy Permanent, Blue Sky Studio's latest start-studded cartoon Ferdinandand of course, a little film called Star Wars: The Last Jedi.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/8

Postby undeadmonkey » December 6th, 2017, 3:02 pm

I'm actually really looking forward to I Tonya. The marketing has been great.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/8

Postby Buscemi2 » December 6th, 2017, 3:08 pm

One of the theatres here is getting The Disaster Artist on two screens. Those will be some empty auditoriums after Friday night (when I'm sure all of the people who came for The Room last week will come).

And last I read, Just Getting Started was getting 1,750 theatres. I'm still not expecting much with it. (Edit: it will open in 2,146 theatres.)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/8

Postby Walleye413 » December 6th, 2017, 11:57 pm

My wife was very much into figure skating when the Nancy/Tonya fight went down so I remember the whole thing quite well. I'm pretty intrigued by that one too.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/8

Postby Buscemi2 » December 7th, 2017, 8:25 am

I think that was much of the nation in 1994, Walleye. Those matches had insane Nielsen ratings (back when those still mattered).

It will interesting to see how audiences react when they realize I, Tonya isn't much of a comedy though the trailers make it look like one.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/8

Postby Chienfantome » December 7th, 2017, 9:10 am

I'm pretty sure Just Getting Started is gonna make double digits this weekend.
Or so I think because I drafted it.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/8

Postby Buscemi2 » December 7th, 2017, 9:22 am

Jones and Freeman still have appeal but there's been no marketing for it (from what I can speculate, eOne's handling the prints and advertising but they don't have much of a presence in the US outside of post-theatrical distribution). I'm thinking about $4 million at most for the weekend.

Had an STX or an Entertainment Studios picked it up, $10 million would be possible.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/8

Postby Shrykespeare » December 7th, 2017, 11:14 pm

Official Theater Counts:

Just Getting Started - 2,146
I, Tonya - 4

The Disaster Artist - 840



Next week:

Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 4,100
Ferdinand - 3,600




Celebrity birthdays:

Judd Apatow turned 50 on 12/6 (next project - producing the adaptation of Nick Hornsby's Juliet, Naked)
Donny Osmond turns 60 on 12/9 (checking ... yup, teeth are still pearly white)
Happy 60th birthday Steve Buscemi! (12/13/17)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/8

Postby Shrykespeare » December 9th, 2017, 3:03 pm

Friday Estimates

Coco, $4.3M
Disaster Artist, $2.6M
Justice League, $2.5M
Wonder, $2.5M
Thor: Ragnarok, $1.7M
Daddy's Home 2, $1.6M
Orient Express, $1.5M
Just Getting Started, $1.1M
Lady Bird, $1M



Weekend Projections:

Coco, $18.8M
Justice League, $9.3M
Wonder, $8.5M
Thor: Ragnarok, $6.2M
Disaster Artist, $6M
Daddy's Home 2, $5.7M
Orient Express, $5M
Just Getting Started, $3.9M
The Star, $3.7M
Lady Bird, $3.5M
Three Billboards, $2.8M



PTA:
Shape of Water, $30K
Disaster Artist, $7K
Coco, $5K
Happy 60th birthday Steve Buscemi! (12/13/17)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/8

Postby Shrykespeare » December 10th, 2017, 3:19 pm

Sunday Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Coco, $18.3M
4 points - Justice League, $9.6M
3 points - Wonder, $8.4M
2 points - The Disaster Artist, $6.4M
1 point - Thor: Ragnarok, $6.3M
Daddy's Home, $6.0M
Murder on the Orient Express, $5.1M
The Star, $3.7M
Lady Bird, $3.5M
Just Getting Started, $3.2M


PTA:
5 points - I, Tonya, $61K
4 points - Call Me By Your Name, $32K
3 points - The Shape of Water, $27K
2 points - Darkest Hour, $15K
1 point - The Disaster Artist, $8K
Happy 60th birthday Steve Buscemi! (12/13/17)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/8

Postby undeadmonkey » December 11th, 2017, 1:41 pm

I don't think ITonya looks like a comedy, it honestly reminds me of Black Swan.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/8

Postby Buscemi2 » December 11th, 2017, 1:56 pm

It's not. The trailers just make it look like a wacky comedy because Neon wants to be the next A24 and therefore believe all their films need to look hip and trendy.

I'd imagine it's about as funny as Get Out is.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 12/8

Postby Shrykespeare » December 11th, 2017, 6:41 pm

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Coco, $18.5M (15)
4 points - Justice League, $9.7M (17)
3 points - Wonder, $8.4M (13)
2 points - The Disaster Artist, $6.4M (2)
1 point - Thor: Ragnarok, $6.3M (18)
Daddy's Home, $5.9M
Murder on the Orient Express, $5.2M
The Star, $3.7M
Lady Bird, $3.5M
Just Getting Started, $3.2M


PTA:
5 points - I, Tonya, $66,039 (5)
4 points - Call Me By Your Name, $31,761 (13)
3 points - The Shape of Water, $27,843 (8)
2 points - Darkest Hour, $13,989 (7)
1 point - The Disaster Artist, $7,579 (4)


Thor broke $300M. Wonder cracked $100M.
Happy 60th birthday Steve Buscemi! (12/13/17)
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