Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2016

[Spectre]

1 Rogue One
2 Guardians of the Galaxy 2
3 Beauty and the Beast
4 Despicable Me 3
5 Fast 8
6 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
7 Wonder Woman
8 The LEGO Batman Movie
9 Spider-Man: Homecoming
10 Moana
11 Transformers: The Last Knight
12 Pirates 5
13 Dunkirk
14 Cars 3
15 Doctor Strange
16 War for the Planet of the Apes
17 Passengers
18 Sing
19 Kong: Skull Island
20 The Mummy

21 Jumanji
22 Patriot's Day

[W]

1. Star Wars: Rogue One
2. Guardians of the Galaxy 2
3. Spider-Man: Homecoming
4. Despicable Me 3
5. LEGO: Batman
6. Transformers: Last Knight
7. Fast 8
8. Wonder Woman
9. Fantastic Beasts
10. Beauty and the Beast
11. Pirates of the Caribbean 5
12. Moana
13. Doctor Strange
14. Cars 3
15. Dunkirk
16. Planet of the Apes 3
17. Sing
18. The Mummy
19. Kong: Skull Island
20. Passengers

x- Jumanji
xx- Kingsman

[BanksIsDaFuture]

1. Star Wars: Rogue One
2. Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 2
3. Fast 8
4. Beauty & The Beast
5. Fantastic Beasts & Where to Find Them
6. Doctor Strange
7. Moana
8. Wonder Woman
9. Spider-Man: Homecoming
10. Despicable Me 3
11. Cars 3
12. Baywatch
13. Transformers: The Last Knight
14. War for the Planet of the Apes
15. Dunkirk
16. Alien: Covenant
17. Passengers
18. Sing
19. LEGO Batman
20. Kingman: The Golden Circle

1. Assassin's Creed
2. The Mummy

[W]

Our combined rankings by average (average placement, how many lists, high, low):
1. Rogue One (rated 1 by everyone)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy 2 (Rated 2 by everyone)
3. Despicable Me 3 (5.4, all lists, 3 Chien/Tran, 10 Banks)
4. Fast 8 (5.5, all lists, 3 Banks, 9 Walleye)
5. Fantastic Beasts (6.1, all lists, 3 jas, 9 W)
6. Beauty and the Beast (6.5, all lists, 3 Spectre, 10 W)
7. Moana (7.6, all lists, 3 Walleye, 12 W)
8. Wonder Woman (7.8, all lists, 3 NumberSix, 15 jas)
9. Spider-Man: Homecoming (8, all lists, 3 W, 12 Six)
10. LEGO: Batman (8.9, all lists, 5 W, 19 Banks)
11. Transformers: Last Knight (12.5, all lists, 6 W, 20 jas)
12. Doctor Strange (13.12, all lists, 6 Banks, 16 tran)
13. Cars 3 (13.14, 7/8 Walleye, 11 Six/Banks)
14. Dunkirk (13.5, all lists, 10 jas, 17 Chien)
15. War of the Planet of the Apes (14.1, 7/8 Walleye, 11 jas)
16. POTC: Dead Men Tell No Tales (14.8, 5/8, 11 W)
17. Baywatch (16, 2/8, 12 Banks)
18. Passengers (16.3, all lists, 8 Tran, 20 W)
19. Sing (16.6, all lists, 11 Walleye, 20 Chien)
20. Kong: Skull Island (17.2, 5/8, 15 Chien)

If you only count films on half the lists, take out Baywatch and include Jumanji. If a majority, then Patriots Day.

[Chienfantome]

Interesting stuff.
The only difference between this Top 20 and my list is that I didn't put Baywatch but included The Mummy.

[numbersix]

So, interesting lists, and mostly quite similar, as is the way. Though this year is showing that not everything is certain when it comes to blockbusters. I should have put Pirates 5 on my bench, as it's the most tired of the franchises. But Patriots Day and Life are very much wildcard picks.

Surprised to see Baywatch in a few lists. It may have been the hit of the 90s but that doesn't necessarily translate into a hit movie, especially with new cast. I was considering Kong but that March release date and proximity to Wolverine makes me wonder if there's room for both of these to be 100m hits. Jumanji doesn't even have the nostalgia factor to bring a crowd, Kingsman 2 is facing stiffer competition than the first, The Mummy only has Tom Cruise going for it (and even he can't guarantee a hit these days), and I think the response to Prometheus will make fans wary of Alien Covenant.

Surprised there wasn't as much love for The Dark Tower, which could be the franchise every Stephen King fan has been waiting for.

[W]

To get into the top 20, Dark Tower is going to need a killer trailer. But I'm not sure if even that will create the buzz needed. I love Stephen King and Idris Elba, but nothing has shown me it has $150 M potential. King's highest is $136 M in the 90's. I seriously hope I'm wrong, it makes enough for a slew of sequels, and establishes Elba as a top tier star instead of the fourth lead or villain who's face you never see (Jungle Book, Star Trek Beyond).

The one I think people are ranking way to low is my #3, Spider-Man: Homecoming. I know the thought is that people are tired of the character, but it's Marvel getting back their #1 character for use in the MCU. And it has Iron Man. No one cared about the ASM sequel and it opened to $91 M. If people actually cared?

[undeadmonkey]

i completely forgot about this. if its ok, i'll still submit a list to see how i would have done, but just don't include me in the standings.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Well the first casualty of this season has come to fruition, as Jumanji has been moved out of next summer and into Christmas 2017.

Picked by 4 of us:

Jas now picks up Patriots Day from his bench.
Tranny picks up Fifty Shades Darker from his bench.
Spectre loses it as his 1st bench spot, so now he only has Patriot's Day as insurance.
W is in the same boat, as he only has Kingsman: Golden Circle as a bench pick.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Some more release date changes have hit, and the following are impacted:

Jas loses Kingsman: Gold Circle and picks up Alien: Covenant from his bench. He is now out of bench spots.
Tranny loses Kingsman: Gold Circle and picks up Patriot's Day from his bench as well. Also now out of bench spots.
I lose Kingsman: Gold Circle and pick up Assassin's Creed from my bench. (:( )

[Chienfantome]

Sooo where are we at here ? Isn't This game supposed to end soon ?

[Spectre]

Based on my sheet, it currently looks like:

1. Six ($4.915B)
2t. Spectre ($4.894B) - Win tiebreaker with Beauty and the Beast ranked 3rd
2t. W ($4.894B) - 2nd in tiebreaker with Spider-Man: Homecoming ranked 3rd
2t. Chien ($4.894B) - 3rd tiebreaker with Despicable Me ranked 3rd

Six gets it by being the only player to roster Logan on his main slate. Poor Chien has it crying out to him from the 1st spot on the bench. Don't think the tied-up cluster has any way to catch him. Unless my calculations suck... then disregard.