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2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby Brockster » April 20th, 2016, 2:29 pm

And when me and Ron are #1 and 2 on the back of Warcraft, you'll all be sorry!


Just watched the trailer for this as I'm trying to put my draft list together. This has BOMB written all over it. Wow, it looks terrible.

I'm starting to think that Assassin's Creed would have been a good sleeper pick..maybe #20 or a bench pick. Seems to be picking up some buzz.

Really hard year to pick though.
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby numbersix » May 11th, 2016, 11:06 am

1ST UPDATE

Okay, no official scores yet as it's too early to tell, but there are a few noteworthy issues brought up in the game so far.

Firstly, this year holds the record for having the most Jan-Apr releases breaking 300m, with amazingly 3 films having already done it, with 1 more about to cross the line. Proof that holiday seasons aren't always the best time to release a film.

Firstly, Deadpool, which has crossed $360m, is perhaps the biggest surprise, as reflected in the number of times it was selected in the game with only 8 out the 13 players picking it. Considering its destined to be in the Top 10 of the year, if not the Top 5, the 5 who decided not to go for it are at a severe disadvantage. Banks, who has it on his bench, badly needs one of his films to be delayed.

Captain American 3, which opened to $179m and will certainly end up in the year's Top 5, was picked by everyone. Batman V Superman was sensibly picked by everyone, even if it disappointed with only 327m and not much fuel left. 12 of us nabbed Zootopia, another big surprise with 328m and counting. However, Jas and W have it on their bench, and Banks didn't choose it at all (you're REALLY going to need to get Deadpool). Finally, The Jungle Book was picked by everyone besides John E. That means that out of the 13 only 7 of us have all 4 of these blockbusters currently on our slate, putting us at a major advantage.

As for the rest of the films picked, Kung Fu Panda 3 earned $142, meaning it's quite likely to place in the top 25 of the year, and thus is a solid pick for the 8 of us who took it on (although John E, W, and Spectre have it on their benches). John E and Ron B should be happy that two of their underperforming picks, Allegient and The Huntsman respectively, are on their benches and hopefully won't end up on their slate.

No films have been pushed to next year so far, and the next batch of films selected by at least one of us includes Neighbours 2, Angry Birds, Xmen Apocalypse, Alice Through the Looking Glass, and TMNT2. I'll aim for an update later in the summer, particularly if there are some surprises.
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby undeadmonkey » May 11th, 2016, 2:02 pm

funny, how much of a difference a few months can make. I never saw Deadpool going that high. but i have the other 3 so far.
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby Chienfantome » May 11th, 2016, 6:03 pm

I'm glad to have all four films. Iregret not trusting Kung Fu Panda though.
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby Walleye413 » May 12th, 2016, 8:34 pm

Looking at my slate I'm pretty happy with it so far - got all the picks just mentioned. But I'm going to regret not having Secret Life of Pets on there I'm pretty sure.
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby Brockster » June 1st, 2016, 4:12 pm

I had Alice as #6 on my list...whoops! :oops:

Jas is the only person who didn't have it in his top 20...he has it on his bench though :)
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby numbersix » June 1st, 2016, 4:18 pm

Yeah two major upsets last month. Let's see what this month brings. TMNT2 could be the next disaster...
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby Walleye413 » June 1st, 2016, 8:45 pm

I had Alice as #20! Why didn't I just drop it!
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby Brockster » July 5th, 2016, 11:46 am

No films have been pushed to next year so far, and the next batch of films selected by at least one of us includes Neighbours 2, Angry Birds, Xmen Apocalypse, Alice Through the Looking Glass, and TMNT2. I'll aim for an update later in the summer, particularly if there are some surprises.


I had Alice AND TMNT2 on my slate :( A couple of stinkers right there.

I'm glad I stayed away from Independence Day 2!
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby numbersix » July 25th, 2016, 11:15 am

2ND UPDATE

Well, well, well...

Just when we thought we were in for a safe summer, things go a little haywire.

Last time I posted it was early May, and the success of Captain America 3 looked like things were going as planned.

First to surprise was Neighbours 2, earning almost a third of the original. It has closed at the $55m mark, making it one of the worst picks of the game. Not good news for the 5 of us that put it on our slates. That's the kind of disadvantage you really don't want.

And things got worse, especially on the sequel front. Alice Through the Looking Glass looked like a guaranteed $100m film, but as we got nearer to its release tracking didn't look good, and the film ended up with only $76m, less than a quarter of what the first film made. All of us picked it, but only Jas has it on his bench. He's praying it'll stay there. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles surprised a few years ago, and surprised again this year with its sequel underwhelming $81m cume, which is good for Walleye, Jas, and Banks who didn't pick it, and for NSpan who left it on his bench. Now You See Me 2 didn't help Tranny's slate by earning just over $67m. And Ice Age 5 was one of the major disasters of the year, earning way less than the previous 4 by opening to $21m and will probably end up with less than $70m cume.

As for original content, not many of us saw potential in Warcraft, but despite its modest opening weekend it turned out to have tiny dwarf legs and earn a measly $47m, which isn't good news for Ron B or W. A major shock was the Steven Spielberg Disney animation The BFG, which opened to less than $19m and won't even cross the $55m mark, which will be disappointing for Chien and W.

While not being a disaster, there were subdued performances of franchise films like X-Men: Apocalypse ($155m, though we all picked it), and Star Trek Beyond had the weakest opening of the 3 films, though should probably be strong enough to crack $150m total and make it into the Top 20 of the year. W was the only one not the put this one on his slate. And Independence Day 2 earned a so-so $101m, which isn't bad and certainly isn't a slate killer.

Still, it's not all downbeat. There were some surprises. The Angry Birds Movie was a bit of a wildcard but turned out to be a solid pick, making $106m and counting. Pity Tranny and Banks were the only ones to select it... and put it on their benches. The Conjuring 2 defeated the curse of most horror sequels and crossed the $101m mark, with only JohnE taking the risk on that one. Central Intelligence was taken by Tranny and Banks (and on Brock's bench) and performed impressively with $123m and a little more to come. The biggest surprise was probably The Legend of Tarzan, which exceeded all expectations and will probably cross the $120m mark with ease. Ron B was made enough to take it, so kudos to him. Similarly, the initial backlash against Ghostbusters seemed to be exaggerated, as the film has already earned $86m in 2 weekends, and should easily cross $100m before it closes. Ron B was the only one not to pick it, and unfortunately I put it on my bench. Most of us saw the huge success of The Secret Life of Pets coming - it is already at $260m and might even reach $300m. Jas, Walleye, and Brock will be kicking themselves for not taking a film that'll end up in the Top 10 of the year.

And of course Finding Dory has become Pixar's most successful movie in the US, earning $460m and still going strong. No surprise to see us all nab that one, although props to Walleye, Brockster, Ron B, JohnE, W, and UDM for predicting it would beat Captain America. Whether it will still be #1 after Rogue One opens is the next big question.

Bourne 5 opens up this weekend, and should perform solidly, and over the next few months we'll see how Suicide Squad, Storks, Pete's Dragon, and Sully perform. Around September I'll start posting scores, although it's worth noting I'm currently #1 in the game... but only because of my front-loaded slate.
Last edited by numbersix on July 26th, 2016, 3:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby Spectre » July 25th, 2016, 11:34 am

I had better not have a movie get shifted off my Top 20 or I'm getting the Ice Age 5 turd moved in... GROAN.
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby Walleye413 » July 25th, 2016, 1:06 pm

SLOP for Neighbors and I win this thing. Stupid Hindsight.
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » July 25th, 2016, 1:44 pm

I need Sing to be pushed out to Spring 2017 so I can get Deadpool!
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby transformers2 » July 25th, 2016, 6:05 pm

I still don't know what possessed me to put Now You See Me 2 on my slate.
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby Brockster » July 25th, 2016, 6:41 pm

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