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2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby Ron Burgundy » January 28th, 2016, 6:53 am

Dammit, i knew there was something i forgot about.

Anywho, ill still put up a list and if you accept my late entry, it shall be a joyous occasion :)

1. Star Wars: Rogue One
2. Finding Dory
3. X-Men Apocalypse
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to find them
5. Captain America: Civil War
6. Suicide Squad
7. Batman Vs Superman
8. Zootopia
9. Alice Through the Looking Glass
10. The Jungle Book
11. Star Trek Beyond
12. The Secret Life of Pets
13. Passengers
14. Moana
15. Independence Day 2
16. Warcraft
17. TMNT
18. The Legend of Tarzan
19. Gambit
20. Ice Age: Collision Course

21. The Huntsman Winter's War
22. Doctor Strange
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby numbersix » January 28th, 2016, 8:39 am

Thanks Ron, I'll let your entry in. And if anyone else wants to fire one in over the next few days, I'll be happy to accept it as long as Kung Fu Panda 3 isn't included.

So that's 13 entries so far, the same as last year. But some very different stats (thanks for the help, Spectre).

Last year had a major consensus with the few different picks being the ones that chose the winner.

This year, only 8 films were picked by everyone: Captain America: Civil War, Rogue One, Batman v. Superman, Fantastic Beasts, Finding Dory, X-Men: Apocalypse, Suicide Squad, and Alice. Compare that to last year when 15 films were chosen by all 13 of us.

Another 7 were picked up by all except one, and a few of those include Bench picks.

On the opposite end 13 films were picked only once, and only 3 of them were bench picks. Last year only 7 films were picked once.

I guess it's because there are so many sequels, reboots, animations, and franchises to choose from that it's hard to see at this early stage which will exceed expectations and which will disappoint.

No two Top 20 slates are the same, although including bench picks myself and NSpan share the same films.

This is going to be an exciting, and possibly unpredictable game.
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby Chienfantome » January 28th, 2016, 9:06 am

Yeah this year it seems that we having divergent opinions on which films have the most potential outside of the 8 or 9 obvious ones. This is gonna be fun.
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby numbersix » January 28th, 2016, 10:00 am

But now the trash talk...

There's at least 2 films I was considering, but just had to drop, that no one picked. The first is Scorsese's Silence, surely the most obvious Oscar contender for next year's awards. Also, I felt The Magnificent Seven could be a big hit, especially with Denzel at the helm. Sept/Oct almost always brings in 1 film in the Top 20 each year, and I think that's the best bet, unless one of the adult thrillers (The Accountant) or award-contenders (The Girl on the Train) exceeds current expectations. The other films I was considering were Sing (Xmas musical animation seems like a good bet for 100m), Ice Age 5 (it's got August to itself, however, I'm not convinced it'll do more than 100m, especially with The Secret Life of Pets still playing), and The BFG (Spielberg and Disney, yes, but it's up against Finding Dory on one side and Pets on the other).

I'm surprised almost all of us picked Ghostbusters. I reluctantly put it on my bench, but I think it's a major wildcard - it could be huge but it could annoy fans of the original and bomb hard. Anywhere from 70m to 250m is possible, and I'm thinking it's closer to the lower figure. The only other wildcard is Warcraft, but I think the dip in subscriptions worldwide for WOW suggest this won't blow up, and the response to the first trailer was poor.

I'm not hugely convinced Bourne 5 will be massive. Yes, Damon's back, but it's got Suicide Squad coming out the following week which could take a lot of its audience. A 40m opening but a 100m cume isn't out of the question. That said, it's on my bench just in case.
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby Chienfantome » January 28th, 2016, 10:17 am

The Magnificent 7 is one I considered, given the star power it's gonna have, but in the end it doesn't have such a huge potential, and if it does 100M it's probably be gonna be much better than expected.
I'm still wareful of Silence, as the subject puts it more in the catergory of the Scorsese films that could not break out, especially without DiCaprio.
The Girl on the train was another one I almost put given the success of the book.

I agree Ghostbusters could disappoint, but the first two were such HUGE hits in the 80's, this one could go really high, and the female characters could draw a new audience to it.

As for The BFG, the family friendly competition isn't that big a deal really. If in 2012, Madagascar 3, Brave and Ice Age 4 could manage to all open within a month and pick up 200M+, 200M+ and 150M+ respectively at the US box-office... given the quality of those films which wasn't that high, certainly a Dory, a Spielberg and an Illumination film can co-exist and each draw big this summer. It's definitely worth the gamble.
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby numbersix » January 28th, 2016, 10:56 am

True, but this summer you have 4 films all competing for the same audience, and all coming out within 5 or 6 weeks of each other: Finding Dory, The BFG, The Secret Life of Pets, and Ice Age 5. I see Dory and Secret Life doing the best, but I think either BFG or Ice Age will make it past 100m, but not both.
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby Chienfantome » January 28th, 2016, 11:27 am

I know, and that's why I didn't put Ice Age on my list. Dory is Nemo's sequel and opens first, there's no doubt it's gonna be huge. BFG will open two weeks later and have the Disney brand and Spielberg going for it, I'm sure it's gonna do solid business. Pets has a solid pitch, a fun trailer, and "By the makers of the Minions going for it.
Ice Age will open last, late july, as the 5th (!!!) episode of a saga declining film after film.
Dory, BFG and Pets will be solid, but Ice Age ? Meh.
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby JohnErle » January 28th, 2016, 2:27 pm

The BFG looks like another TinTin to me. It might do well in the UK and Europe, but I'd never even heard of the book, and the teaser looks terrible. Giants are not a visually interesting creature -- just look at Jack The Giant Slayer as proof -- so it all adds up to a disappointment to me.
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby W » January 28th, 2016, 3:43 pm

I read the book as a kid and my kid has read it. I don't know any more than that.

And when me and Ron are #1 and 2 on the back of Warcraft, you'll all be sorry!
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby Chienfantome » January 29th, 2016, 5:10 am

JohnErle wrote:The BFG looks like another TinTin to me. It might do well in the UK and Europe, but I'd never even heard of the book, and the teaser looks terrible. Giants are not a visually interesting creature -- just look at Jack The Giant Slayer as proof -- so it all adds up to a disappointment to me.


We'll see this summer. But I would have hated myself to have gamble against a Disney family-friendly film directed by Spielberg and opening at the heart of summer.
Besides, if Jack the Giant Slayer, a film which had been postponed a year, plagued with bad buzz, and didn't have the Disney or Spielberg name on it managed to grab $65M 3 years ago, The BFG can certainly double that.
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby Walleye413 » January 29th, 2016, 8:07 pm

BFG and Magnificent Seven are the biggest unknowns for me. Both could hit the right notes and score big. But I doubt either one truly breaks out, certainly not much more than 100 mil - which still might be enough this year. Warcraft is going to bomb! Like Jupiter Ascending bomb! Totally confident in that one, and when have I ever been wrong :)
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby Chienfantome » February 15th, 2016, 11:09 am

Whoever didn't put Deadpool in their Top 20 is starting the game with a big handicap.
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby transformers2 » February 15th, 2016, 1:41 pm

Chienfantome wrote:Whoever didn't put Deadpool in their Top 20 is starting the game with a big handicap.


Yep, I certainly feel like an idiot for not putting it in mine.
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby NSpan » March 19th, 2016, 5:23 pm

transformers2 wrote:
Chienfantome wrote:Whoever didn't put Deadpool in their Top 20 is starting the game with a big handicap.


Yep, I certainly feel like an idiot for not putting it in mine.

It just barely made it into my list. It was my 20th pick! phew.
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Re: 2016 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby Chienfantome » April 20th, 2016, 3:43 am

I remember hesitating about The Jungle Book. Boy am I glad I put it in my list in the end.
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