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2015 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

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Re: 2015 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby W » February 5th, 2015, 3:19 pm

It's possible that two of the five biggest movies in the history of film are this year with another possible top ten. No wonder everyone's got the top 3.
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Re: 2015 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby numbersix » February 6th, 2015, 9:05 am

Thanks to everyone for entering. A bit of a lower turnout than previous years, but that's probably reflective of the lessening activity on these forums anyway.

So if anyone else wants to sneak in an entry over the next few days, I wouldn't be adverse to allowing it, although at this stage I couldn't accept 50 Shades on your slate.

The most interesting thing about this year is, as already pointed out, the uniformity of our picks. In most years only 11 or 12 films were picked by everyone, but this year 15 films were chosen by us all. Given the less people playing that's either a testament to us being conservative after risks not paying off, or a reflection on the conservative film industry.

So only 37 films were picked this year. 7 were picked only once, and 4 others picked twice. On the other end of the scale Banks was the only one not to pick 50 Shades. Fantastic Four and Peanuts were picked 11 times.

Personally, I have doubts about Peanuts. While I'm looking forward to it for nostalgic reasons, I wonder will the 3D style turn off older viewers. It could end up like The Muppets and fail to crack 100m. Pan was picked 9 times, which is also a surprise. In a competitive summer, this could have trouble beating its rivals. The trailer looks beautiful, but it will need to be more eventful to win over younger audiences. Funnily, Terminator Genisys was only picked by 4 people (with Jas being the only one having it on his roster). The trailer make sit look awful, but will that impact enough for a sub 100m result? Hard to say.
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Re: 2015 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby Chienfantome » February 6th, 2015, 9:24 am

Peanuts is a film I had doubts about putting on my list. I ended up putting it after all, only because early november is a prime date for animated films that usually pay off, but I have doubts about the potential of the film itself because of its visual look.
Terminator is another I hesitated about, and almost put it, but the bad buzz surrounding the marketing had me leave it off. Exactly the opposite of Mad Max Fury Road, I have doubts about its potential to break out, but the trailers have been so exciting, that despite the fact it's gonna be a giant WTF movie that clearly won't be 4 quadrant, it still could have what it takes to emerge with more than $100M, so I put it on my bench.

I think 2015 is clearly a year of conservatism from Hollywood, which reflects in our choices. So many huge sequels, Star Wars, Avengers, Jurassic, M:I, Hunger Games, F&F, Minions, plus two Pixar films, a studio you can't leave off the table, and Marvel superheroes, etc etc... Which in the end leaves little place for audacity.
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Re: 2015 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby JohnErle » February 6th, 2015, 2:38 pm

On paper, a CGI Peanuts movie does have the potential to piss off a lot of people, but the early teasers look promising enough that I doubt it'll be another Mr. Peabody & Sherman.

These characters are so iconic in North America that kids, parents, and grandparents could go to the movie as a group over the holidays, all with their own reasons for wanting to see Charlie Brown, Snoopy, and the gang done right. It's not only four-quadrant it's four-generation. Even if it's an abomination, 100 million is probably the floor, and if it's any good it could be the biggest animated movie of the year, so I never had any doubts about picking it.
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Re: 2015 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby undeadmonkey » February 6th, 2015, 7:21 pm

Woah there sonny, Itll be big, but it won't be that big, no way it makes more than minions or the Pixar pair
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Re: 2015 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby JohnErle » February 6th, 2015, 7:53 pm

Pixar ain't what it used to be, and spin-offs are always a gamble. I never said it would the biggest animated movie of the year, but the potential is there, so I thought it would be foolish to have a slate without it. Even if it finishes behind the other three I think it'll be worth having.
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Re: 2015 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby Chienfantome » February 6th, 2015, 8:04 pm

Minions are the reason why Despicable Me is such a popular film (well, why both were). I bet the Minions spinoff will be even bigger at the BO than the Despicable Me films.
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Re: 2015 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby JohnErle » February 6th, 2015, 9:12 pm

I doubt that. The relationship between Gru and the kids was the central story. The Minions were the comic relief, like Scrat in the Ice Age movies: funny in small doses, but not enough to build a movie around. If they were, the spinoff wouldn't have needed Sandra Bullock and Jon Hamm as the new humans the Minions latch onto. I'm sure it'll do well, but probably closer to the first movie, unless audiences really love the new characters.
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Re: 2015 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby undeadmonkey » February 7th, 2015, 1:19 am

I don't get where you are getting the Pixar thing either. $200M is the floor for a pixar movie and, critically, Cars 2 is the only film that is looked down upon.
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Re: 2015 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby JohnErle » February 7th, 2015, 2:10 am

On Metacritic, the three Pixar films with the worst reviews are the three most recent: Brave, Monsters U, and Cars 2. The latter is the only Pixar film to ever fall into Metacritic's "Mixed" category, but Brave and MU weren't much higher, and all three ranked below the original Cars, long considered Pixar's first misstep. And Rotten Tomatoes tells the same basic story: the three most recent films, while still arguably watchable, aren't up to Pixar's previous high standards.

And in terms of box office, when you adjust for inflation, Brave and Cars 2 are the lowest grossing films in Pixar's history, and MU only ranks 10th.

Pixar is far from dead, and there's still a chance they'll turn things around, but they're clearly in decline. $200 million is probably the floor for a new Pixar movie, but that's easily reachable for a good Peanuts movie as well.
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Re: 2015 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby numbersix » February 7th, 2015, 5:03 am

JohnErle wrote:On paper, a CGI Peanuts movie does have the potential to piss off a lot of people, but the early teasers look promising enough that I doubt it'll be another Mr. Peabody & Sherman.

These characters are so iconic in North America that kids, parents, and grandparents could go to the movie as a group over the holidays, all with their own reasons for wanting to see Charlie Brown, Snoopy, and the gang done right. It's not only four-quadrant it's four-generation. Even if it's an abomination, 100 million is probably the floor, and if it's any good it could be the biggest animated movie of the year, so I never had any doubts about picking it.


I think you could have said the same, or at least very similar, about The Muppets movie.
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Re: 2015 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby Chienfantome » February 7th, 2015, 5:52 am

JohnErle wrote:I doubt that. The relationship between Gru and the kids was the central story.


I didn't say Minions were the central story. I said they are the reason why the Despicable Me films are so popular. Yes they are the comic relief. But mostly, they are the funniest thing about the Despicable films, so building a film around them may be the best idea considering everyone the Despicable Me sequel was disappointing... and the funniest thing about it was the Minions. And kids love them. They will certainly all rush to see a film about the Minions.
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Re: 2015 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby JohnErle » February 7th, 2015, 3:22 pm

numbersix wrote:
JohnErle wrote:On paper, a CGI Peanuts movie does have the potential to piss off a lot of people, but the early teasers look promising enough that I doubt it'll be another Mr. Peabody & Sherman.

These characters are so iconic in North America that kids, parents, and grandparents could go to the movie as a group over the holidays, all with their own reasons for wanting to see Charlie Brown, Snoopy, and the gang done right. It's not only four-quadrant it's four-generation. Even if it's an abomination, 100 million is probably the floor, and if it's any good it could be the biggest animated movie of the year, so I never had any doubts about picking it.


I think you could have said the same, or at least very similar, about The Muppets movie.


I never would have said that, because I don't think the Muppets are in the same league as Peanuts.

I could elaborate, but I don't want anyone to steal the Peanuts movie from me when we do the next yearly draft, so I'll leave it at that and hope everyone forgets I ever said anything by April.
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Re: 2015 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby JohnErle » February 7th, 2015, 3:28 pm

Chienfantome wrote:
JohnErle wrote:I doubt that. The relationship between Gru and the kids was the central story.


I didn't say Minions were the central story. I said they are the reason why the Despicable Me films are so popular. Yes they are the comic relief. But mostly, they are the funniest thing about the Despicable films, so building a film around them may be the best idea considering everyone the Despicable Me sequel was disappointing... and the funniest thing about it was the Minions. And kids love them. They will certainly all rush to see a film about the Minions.


Everyone loved Puss In Boots as well, but his spin-off movie did way less than any of the Shrek movies.

I think you're seriously underestimating the importance of Gru and those adorable kids. The Minions are cute and funny, but the heart and soul of the first two films was Gru bonding with his new family. Their absence leaves a huge hole to fill. Coffin and Renaud are on a winning streak, so I'm not betting against them, but I see this film earning less, not more, than the originals, unless audiences adore Scarlett Overkill and the new humans even more than they liked the old ones. And if, as you say, the second one was disappointing, it's always the next film that suffers at the box office after a disappointing chapter.
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Re: 2015 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20

Postby numbersix » February 7th, 2015, 4:38 pm

I actually agree with John on Minions. At first I assumed it would be a guaranteed 300m hit. But I think by focusing on the Minions you could lose an audience, even if they were the most liked element of the Despicable Me movies. But there's a question about whether they can sustain an audience, and also about whether they will retain the audience who enjoyed the DM movies. Older kids may not be into the minions as much. Plus, the Penguins were the best things about Madagascar but couldn't sustain a feature by themselves. Also, the lack of dialogue reminds me of Wall E, which despite great reviews didn't have the reach that was expected.

As for Peanuts, you could argue that it's been around longer than Muppets but that older audience may be turned off by the animation style, so that may cancel out its BO potential.
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