2014 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films of The Year

Different user set-up games offered up by different members. Have fun!

Moderators: Buscemi, BarcaRulz, Geezer, W

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: 2014 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films of The Y

Post by numbersix »

I can see why John thought of Interstellar that way. The teaser seemed to focus more on feeling and modern-day sci-fi rather than the more fantastic depiction of it. Which could make for a much smaller, intimate film.

That said, I'm not sure Nolan is capable of making a small film anymore. Even a "heist" film like Inception was blown up to a ridiculous scale. Plus, the success of Gravity may make audiences hunger for a similar film (even if Interstellar isn't similar at all, there will still be the perception that it is). I also remember us all underestimating Inception when we first discussed, so I'm making sure I don't make the same mistake again.

I've 12 entries in already. That's less than the 18 who played last year. Hoping I get a few more in before Wednesday's deadline, though I'll have to disqualify Lego if anyone picks it (and ask them to pick an alternative film).

User avatar
JohnErle
Snake Plissken
Posts: 2905
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 4:01 am
Contact:

Re: 2014 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films of The Y

Post by JohnErle »

Chienfantome wrote:Thing is we haven't seen much of it so far. But my gut tells me not to bet against Nolan even if we know next to nothing of his film, although enough to see the starpower and the epic potential of it. The last time he made a film with a strong group of actors embarked on a weird journey we didn't know much of months ahead was Inception. Even the title, a single word starting with the prefix "In", reminds us of it, don't you think ? ;)
As much as I love what McConaughey has done over the past few years, you can't compare his box-office appeal to Leo DiCaprio's. And when I saw that teaser for Interstellar I had Tom Hanks' voice from A League Of Their Own in my head saying "There's no crying in blockbusters!"

Not picking it could easily backfire, and I could have hemmed and hawed over it for another month, but when the deadline was looming I went with my gut and my gut said "bench".

User avatar
JohnErle
Snake Plissken
Posts: 2905
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 4:01 am
Contact:

Re: 2014 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films of The Y

Post by JohnErle »

numbersix wrote:I'm not sure Nolan is capable of making a small film anymore. .
Maybe, but I read that he was at Slamdance recently talking about how big budgets weren't really his thing, so that was another reason I left it out of my top 20. I get the feeling he wants to go back to his pre-Batman roots.

User avatar
Chienfantome
Captain Jack Sparrow
Posts: 9967
Joined: May 29th, 2010, 4:22 am
Location: Paris, France
Contact:

Re: 2014 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films of The Y

Post by Chienfantome »

Still even if we don't know the exact production budget yet, I'd be very surprised to learn Interstellar doesn't have a big budget.

As for McCOnaughey's box-office appeal, if the guy wins the Oscar next month...
Fluctuat nec mergitur

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: 2014 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films of The Y

Post by numbersix »

Yeah I'd say Interstellar is his last big budget project before he considers smaller movies. I don't know how big it is, but with Warner and Paramount involved, not to mention Legendary Pic (and I remember Spielberg was originally going to direct), I imagine this will be big.

As an aside, I'd love to see Nolan try to make smaller, indie films again. The budget restraints might prevent the bloat that marred his last two films.

User avatar
JohnErle
Snake Plissken
Posts: 2905
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 4:01 am
Contact:

Re: 2014 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films of The Y

Post by JohnErle »

Chienfantome wrote: As for McCOnaughey's box-office appeal, if the guy wins the Oscar next month...
... he'll be another talented, Oscar-winning actor who isn't a big box-office draw. ;-)

A lot of casual movie-goers still think of him as that guy from all those lousy romantic comedies. The people who only see 10-15 movies a year never heard of Killer Joe or Bernie so they're surprised that McConaughey is suddenly getting awards buzz. For us film buffs it's over-due, but to the casual audiences it came out of nowhere.

If Interstellar is a hit and people like him in it that'll bode well for his next few movies, but it's those casual audiences that will have to show up for Interstellar to make it worthy of being a top 20 pick. And they'd better show up in droves during those first two weeks because then Mockingjay hits and that's all anyone will be talking about.

User avatar
Chienfantome
Captain Jack Sparrow
Posts: 9967
Joined: May 29th, 2010, 4:22 am
Location: Paris, France
Contact:

Re: 2014 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films of The Y

Post by Chienfantome »

I think that even if a lot of people still think of him as that romcom actor, those people still can see the guy is all over the place, making magazine covers, appearing on a TV show everyone's talking about even though it's on HBO... And he was a scene stealer in two movies that grossed more than $100M those past 18 months, with Magic Mike and The Wolf of Wall Street. He sure is no Leo, but he sure is everywhere. The potential Oscar win won't hurt.
As for Mockingjay's presence nearby, I think Frozen has just proven that you can open near a huge Hunger Games movie and be huge on your own, so that doesn't worry me much.
Fluctuat nec mergitur

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: 2014 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films of The Y

Post by numbersix »

Interstellar will have to aim for a much older audience if it wants to co-exist with Hunger Games 3, which may be what they're doing.

jas8382
Jason Voorhees
Posts: 195
Joined: October 25th, 2009, 11:04 pm

Re: 2014 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films of The Y

Post by jas8382 »

Here we go just under the gun.
1. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part One
2. How to Train Your Dragon 2
3. Transformers: Age of Extinction
4. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
5. The Hobbit: There and Back Again
6. Godzilla
7. X-Men: Days of Future Past
8. Noah
9. Interstellar
10. The Amazing Spider Man 2
11. Mr. Peabody and Sherman
12. A Million Ways to Die in the West
13. Captain America: Winter Soldier
14. Maleficent
15. 22 Jump Street
16. Tammy
17. Guardians of the Galaxy
18. Into the Woods
19. Big Hero 6
20. Night at the Museum 3

Bench
1. Rio 2
2. Divergent

User avatar
undeadmonkey
Leon
Posts: 4413
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 1:39 pm

Re: 2014 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films of The Y

Post by undeadmonkey »

1. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part One
2. How to Train Your Dragon 2
3. Transformers: Age of Extinction
4. The Hobbit: There and Back Again
5. X-Men: Days of Future Past
6. The Amazing Spider Man 2
7.Interstellar
8. Noah
9. Guardians of the Galaxy
10. Tammy
11. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
12. Big Hero 6
13. Captain America: Winter Soldier
14. Maleficent
15. Exodus
16. Godzilla
17. Divergent
18. Into the Woods
19. Neighbors
20. Night at the Museum 3

Bench
1. Mr. Peabody and Sherman
2. Edge of Tomorrow

I know PIxar has been sucking it up lately, but it still made me a little sad that they don't have a film coming out this year...

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: 2014 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films of The Y

Post by numbersix »

Thanks to everyone for entering.

We have 15 entries this year, which ain't bad, and 43 films picked, which is one more than last year and the year before. How diverse.

Interestingly, Gone Girl was picked 6 times but only as a bench pick.

Here are some films I'm surprised they weren't picked as they had potential:

The Equalizer: there aren't a lot of huge action films this year, and the combo of the director of Olympus has fallen and Denzel could spell Taken numbers as it holds across October.
Blended: Sandler and Barrymore reunite in what could be a killer counter-programming move.
Fury: Pitt and the Hollywood Troll fight tank battles? Could be a hit action movie.
Planes 2: Could be a safe little $100m earner for the non-discerning families
The Expendables: The reliables in terms of box office, although the sequels could spell diminishing returns.
Sin City 2: Much anticipated sequel that could improve on the original's BO return
Book of Life: An animation in a rather dead time for kids films
Unbroken: Jolie's Oscar-Bait could hit the target.

User avatar
Chienfantome
Captain Jack Sparrow
Posts: 9967
Joined: May 29th, 2010, 4:22 am
Location: Paris, France
Contact:

Re: 2014 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films of The Y

Post by Chienfantome »

The only film you're citing I really considered putting on my list was Fury.
It's funny we're so many to have put Gone Girl on the bench. The combination of Fincher + Affleck at a release period that reminds us of Argo and The Social Network had us think this could be a breakout "adult" film. I considered giving it a spot in the 20, but ultimately played it safer and put it on the bench.

Giving a look at everyone's picks, here's what I think are the most surprising choices :

- Jersey Boys : it's a popular musical maybe, directed by Eastwood yes, but it's still a 60's set film with no star power whatsoever coming out in the middle of summer. And Eastwood is hit or miss at the BO.
- The Hundred-foot journey : I can see why it's picked, it's one of those August films that could appeal to women, but it could also very well garner 35 million and that's it.
- Alexander and the terrible... : it may be Disney, but it's written by Chodolenko and directed by Arteta, who work in the arthouse. It could end up not "popular" enough.

But the biggest WTF comes thanks to Empire, who probably was sleepwalking when he finished writing his list and put up "Bad Words" on it, an indie film distributed by Focus Feature in March. Now if this isn't the boldest choice of all lists... You have faith Empire, that's for sure ;)
Fluctuat nec mergitur

User avatar
JohnErle
Snake Plissken
Posts: 2905
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 4:01 am
Contact:

Re: 2014 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films of The Y

Post by JohnErle »

I definitely considered The Equalizer, but Denzel's movies pretty consistently fall just outside the Top 20 of any given year, and 2 Guns could only manage $75 million in August last year. I didn't see enough breakout potential there to justify the pick.

I also considered Fury, but it's too far off and unknown.

I had been pretty high on The Familymoon, aka Blended, until I saw that horrific trailer. Now it looks more That's My Boy than The Wedding Singer, so my Fall top 20 is probably screwed.

And yeah, I have to agree with Chien, Bad Words is probably the most surprising pick to me, too.

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: 2014 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films of The Y

Post by numbersix »

Didn't realise there was a Blended trailer. Or else I struck it from memory.

Here are some stats...

This year, only 9 films were picked by all of us: Hunger Games Pt 3, Transformers 4, How To Train Your Dragon 2, The Hobbit Pt 3, Spider Man 2, Captain America 2, Interstellar, Xmen Days of Future Past, and Dawn of the POT Apes. Although Shryke but the apes on his bench, and JohnE was either mad or inspired when he benched Interstellar.

Shryke was the only one to not pick Maleficent. I was very close to omitting it but when I saw the latest trailer I felt it could do decent business across June. Banks and Shaan left out Mr Peabody and Sherman (Boosch and UDM benched it), and Boosch and myself didn't take Godzilla. Despite the promising trailer, I felt it has too much competition to break out, though I think $100m is a possibility.

Most of us picked up The Lego Movie, Night at the Museum 3, 22 Jump Street, Tammy, Divergent and Big Hero Six. With the exception of Tammy, all are relatively safe options. Only Walleye, Boosch, and myself failed to take Guardians of the Galaxy. Not picking a Marvel movie is a risk, but my gut was telling me that the sillier mood will not fare well with an audience used to a certain tone set by the various Avengers movies. Then again, my gut also demanded I ate all of those cola-flavoured raisins and that didn't end too well.

We were divided on Rio 2, Into the Woods, and Home, which were all picked by 8 of us. I think Home and Rio 2 are relatively safe (though Rio 2 is facing a more competitive April than the first movie) and I nabbed them. Into the Woods has potential to be huge but is a big question mark at this stage.

6 of you picked Noah, which interestingly wasn't on anyone's bench. This is going to be one that'll generate plenty of debate, as it seems some think it'll bomb and others think it'll surprise.

5 of us picked A Million Ways to Die in the West, another big risk because it's a comedy Western. Either fans of Ted will flock or it'll be seen as a pet project and largely ignored. I'm hoping it's the former.

TMNT, Horrible Bosses 2, and 300: Rise of an Empire were picked by 4 of you. Personally, I don't see any of them going much beyond $100m.
Hercules, Jersey Boys, and Exodus were picked by 3 people each. Again, I don't seem any faring well, especially Eastwood's musical. Musicals generally need some visual magic and even Eastwood's decent films have been unimpressive on that side.

Jupiter Ascending, Edge of Tomorrow, Annie, and Neighbours were all picked only twice. The first two could risk being ignored during the busy summer season. Neighbours looks like a mid-level hit at best. Annie, however, has the potential to be huge, but it's very hard to tell.

And finally, the little films that were only picked once:
Brock put Dumb and Dumber 2 on his bench. Hopefully it can gain the attention of the first.
Walleye went rogue and chose Alexander and the Terrible... and The 100 Foot Journey.
Disco Stu benched Think Like A Man 2 and Nolan-film-wannabe Transcendence
John E put Need for Speed on his bench
Empire fell over, hit his head, and added Bad Words to his slate.
And I was the only one to get Sex Tape. Which surprised me. There has been a lot of successful R-Rated summer comedies these past few years, and so far this film is the only comedy playing throughout August. I expect it to earn along the likes of Horrible Bosses and We're The Millers.

User avatar
Chienfantome
Captain Jack Sparrow
Posts: 9967
Joined: May 29th, 2010, 4:22 am
Location: Paris, France
Contact:

Re: 2014 Box Office Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films of The Y

Post by Chienfantome »

numbersix wrote:Banks and Shaan left out Mr Peabody and Sherman (Boosch and UDM benched it)
I left it out too.
When I read your recap there are a couple I already regret I didn't put. Oh well, we'll see...
Fluctuat nec mergitur

Post Reply