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Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

Postby empire13 » June 10th, 2014, 8:07 am

And, Frozen is left on my bench!
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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

Postby Chienfantome » June 10th, 2014, 8:11 am

Yeah it's great to have this game added, good move John. Missing on Lego and taking Ender's Game and Walter Mitty will probably prevent me from winning this thing. I'll try for the podium though ;)
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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

Postby JohnErle » June 10th, 2014, 8:25 am

It's a shame box office champs doesn't do a yearly game. Then I wouldn't have to do all this bookkeeping! ;-)

I'm glad you guys participated and enjoyed it, and hopefully more people will jump in when I do it again in a few months time.
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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

Postby JohnErle » June 30th, 2014, 7:34 am

A lacklustre June is coming to a close, so it's time for another update in the Fall Top 20 game.

The big blockbusters of the month were sequels in the Transformers, Dragon, and Jump St franchsies that were picked by all nine of us, so even though Dragon 2 is seriously underperforming it won't have any impact on the final standings, although it might drag all of our averages down a bit.

Banks was the only player to pick Edge Of Tomorrow, which is holding well after a slow start and looks like it will beat Oblivion and maybe reach $100 million, but it'll fall short of the $130 million benchmark that would probably earn it a place in the yearly top 20. Chien has it on his bench, but barring a shocking, last-minute postponement of Guardians Of The Galaxy, that's where it'll stay.

Perhaps the biggest news of June is the spell Maleficent continues to cast on the box office. In my last update I plugged in an estimate of $175 million, but Maleficent has already shot past the $200 mark and is still lingering in the top 5, so I've updated my projection to $225, which helped to widen the lead Banks and I have over the rest of the pack, and which will probably keep Brockster out of the cellar. And speaking of Angelina Jolie and great legs, I wonder if Jim Rash is out there somewhere donning a Maleficent costume.

Here's the updated standings, where I still have a healthy lead in total box office and Banks still leads in terms of average per film, but he still has four films left to be released which is one or two more than anyone else.

Total (in billions)

JohnErle - $3.71
Chien - $3.51
Surfer - $3.41
Shaan - $3.40
Banks - $3.39
Ozzy - $3.38
Brock - $3.30
Six - $3.30
Empire - $3.15

Average per movie (in millions)

Banks - $211.6
JohnErle - $206.4
Surfer - $201.0
Shaan - $200.7
Ozzy - $199.3
Brock - $195.9
Chien - $194.9
Empire - $185.4
Six - $183.4
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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

Postby Chienfantome » June 30th, 2014, 8:38 am

I'm enjoying 2nd place while it lasts...
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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

Postby JohnErle » July 28th, 2014, 7:12 am

As we head into the deciding month of August, it’s time for another update on the Fall edition of the Box Office Top 20 game.

There’s been a lot of talk lately about how disappointing the box office has been this summer, but when you consider how most of the July films were ignored by the majority of us playing this game, it seems like this July was expected to be lacklustre as far back as last September, so I'm not sure all the gloom and doom is justified.

Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes was the most popular pick in July, having been chosen by everyone except Brockster, so he can chalk that up as another mistake in his first stab at this game. With $174 million after three weeks and solid WOM, it should crack the $200 million mark and has a shot at finishing in the top 10 among eligible films.

Tammy was the second most popular pick of July, having been chosen by everyone except Chien, although most of us didn't rank it as highly as the Apes sequel, not that that’s likely to matter when all is said and done. Chien was wise to avoid Melissa McCarthy’s vanity project, which I have projected to finish with $88 million, which is respectable, but well out of top 20 contention.

The only other movie chosen in July was Hercules, which Brockster had on his bench before losing Fast & Furious 7 and Fifty Shades Of Grey. The Big Herc is off to a decent start, and I’ve plugged in a projected total of $90 million for the time being.

And here are the standings as of today, including projections for movies still in theatres:

Image

I’m the first player to crack the four billion mark, and unless Guardians Of The Galaxy approaches $300 million, which seems unlikely, Banks is the only one who still has a shot at catching me. I’ve already used up all my picks, so it all comes down to whether I can hold off Banks’ last-minute push.

I’m still a little surprised by how well I’ve done, but picking 9 of the top 10 so far, including Frozen, and 13 of the top 15 has obviously padded my stats and helped me overcome the occasional mistakes, like skipping Gravity and Godzilla while choosing Blended and Tammy.

In the battle of the basement, Empire needs approximately $150 million from GOTG to squeak past Six, while Brockster seems to be out of danger. The online buzz for GOTG certainly seems to indicate $150 million is possible, but it remains to be seen whether that online buzz will translate into real-word box office.

The final two pieces of the puzzle open over the next two weeks, so I might do weekly updates from now on, especially if the numbers for Guardians or Turtles are particularly surprising.

And don’t forget that it’ll all start up again in September, so it’s never too early to start thinking about your slates, especially if you think any of this September’s films are Top 20 material.
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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

Postby numbersix » July 28th, 2014, 7:42 am

Could I chalk up my mistakes due to playing this particular game (the Fall round) for the first time too?
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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

Postby JohnErle » July 28th, 2014, 8:35 am

numbersix wrote:Could I chalk up my mistakes due to playing this particular game (the Fall round) for the first time too?


You can try, and I'll chalk my success up to beginner's luck so there's no pressure to win the spring version.
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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

Postby Chienfantome » July 28th, 2014, 8:40 am

Indeed it's gonna be hard to catch you John. One month to go, and you're way ahead.
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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » July 28th, 2014, 9:44 am

My lowball estimates for GOTG and TMNT are $150M and $75M, respectively. With those, I'd be looking at second place.

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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

Postby Brockster » July 28th, 2014, 2:42 pm

Ugh.
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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

Postby JohnErle » August 4th, 2014, 5:12 am

Well, well, well. Guardians Of The Galaxy has certainly made the stretch run more interesting, with a $94 million dollar opening which exceeded all but the most delirious Marvel fanboy’s expectations.

There have been a lot of opening weekends this year that fell in the $90 million range, and they were all fanboy-driven, and they all ended up with $200-$260 million when all was said and done, which helps when projecting GOTG’s final totals.

Guardians was well reviewed, with lots of feverish online exclamations of “Best Marvel Movie Since ____”, but the exact same things were said about this year’s X-Men and Captain America sequels, so I’ve stuck in a projection of $240 million for Guardians right now, assuming that a bit of comic book fatigue has set in with casual movie-goers unfamiliar with the source material, and that the dog days of August will eat into GOTG’s legs after this great start.

Here’s the updated standings, including my projections for movies still in theatres:

Image

If all my projections are reasonably accurate, Banks needs at least $90 million from TMNT to seal his victory, so this could go right down to the wire.

At the other end of the standings, Guardians Of The Galaxy has catapulted Empire out of cellar, leaving Six firmly entrenched in last place, which is where he’ll stay. His last hope is that I screwed up my math somewhere and that when I do my final calculations he’ll miraculously be saved from ignominy, but I’m pretty sure my projections aren’t that far off. Better luck next year.
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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

Postby empire13 » August 4th, 2014, 6:59 am

Oh my God! Finally out of the cellar. Thank you, Six!
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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

Postby Chienfantome » August 4th, 2014, 7:08 am

So that's all gonna be close in the end...
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Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

Postby JohnErle » August 4th, 2014, 7:57 am

Yup, and when I start plugging in more actual numbers instead of projections near the end, there should be some jockeying for position between you, Surfer & Shaan, so the bronze medal is still very much up in the air. A few million here or there could make the difference.
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