ReelSociety Forums


Your home for all Reel and Real discussions.

Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

Different user set-up games offered up by different members. Have fun!

Moderators: Buscemi, BarcaRulz, Geezer, W

Re: Box Office Mega Contest - Fall 2013

Postby JohnErle » November 14th, 2013, 1:52 am

The first major date change affecting this game has occurred, and Brockster's bold pick of Fifty Shades Of Grey has been bumped until February 2015. That means Brock is onto his first bench pick, 22 Jump St.

Meanwhile, Ender's Game, a.k.a. Wesley Crusher: The Movie, is falling a bit behind the pattern laid down by After Earth earlier this year, and with kids in school during the week, and facing huge competition from Thor and The Hunger Games, poor little Ender looks like he probably won't make $60 million, so bad news for Ozzy, Chien, and Six. Surfer must be praying for no major date changes in his top 20, because he had it as his second bench pick, where he hopes it stays.

Everybody picked Thor, so nothing to report there, but in other news, you really should have picked Gravity. Fuckity-fuck. Shaan already lost The Good Dinosaur from his top 20, so all he needs is one more film to get bumped and Gravity will get activated off his bench, giving him a huge advantage over everyone else.
User avatar
JohnErle
Buzz Lightyear
 
Posts: 2334
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 4:01 am

Advertisement

 

Re: Box Office Mega Contest - Fall 2013

Postby Chienfantome » November 14th, 2013, 4:33 am

Damn you, Ender's Game.
Fluctuat nec mergitur
User avatar
Chienfantome
The Terminator
 
Posts: 8731
Joined: May 29th, 2010, 4:22 am
Location: Paris, France

Re: Box Office Mega Contest - Fall 2013

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » November 14th, 2013, 7:38 pm

JohnErle wrote:
Meanwhile, Ender's Game, a.k.a. Wesley Crusher: The Movie,


I don't even watch Star Trek, but I get it and I approve it. :lol:
Alexandra Daddario: Eyes of a Demon, Face of My Future Ex-Wife
User avatar
BanksIsDaFuture
Alex
 
Posts: 5980
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 4:09 pm

Re: Box Office Mega Contest - Fall 2013

Postby Chienfantome » December 4th, 2013, 3:48 pm

It seems Universal has officially shut down production on Fast & Furious 7 for an undetermined period of time until figuring out what to do with the film. That means the film won't open next summer, obviously, and everyone who had put it in his list (and I guess everyone had) will have to pick in his bench. Mine is Wolf of Wall Street...
Fluctuat nec mergitur
User avatar
Chienfantome
The Terminator
 
Posts: 8731
Joined: May 29th, 2010, 4:22 am
Location: Paris, France

Re: Box Office Mega Contest - Fall 2013

Postby JohnErle » December 5th, 2013, 12:59 am

At least it affects us all equally. Shaan must be thrilled because that means Gravity has moved off his bench and the rest of us are screwed. Unless something else from Shaan's list gets bumped because that would leave him with 19 films on his roster while most of us would have 20 left.

And it's looking like the people who didn't pick Frozen made a big mistake.
User avatar
JohnErle
Buzz Lightyear
 
Posts: 2334
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 4:01 am

Re: Box Office Mega Contest - Fall 2013

Postby Geezer » December 5th, 2013, 9:25 am

Whenever it DOES come out, its going to make 300 million.
Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man. - The Dude
User avatar
Geezer
Forrest Gump
 
Posts: 4712
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 11:22 am

Re: Box Office Mega Contest - Fall 2013

Postby Chienfantome » December 5th, 2013, 9:27 am

It might, yep.
Fluctuat nec mergitur
User avatar
Chienfantome
The Terminator
 
Posts: 8731
Joined: May 29th, 2010, 4:22 am
Location: Paris, France

Re: Box Office Mega Contest - Fall 2013

Postby JohnErle » January 28th, 2014, 7:49 am

The big December movies are nearing the ends of their runs, and most of us seem to waiting for the deadline in the 2014 edition, so while there’s a bit of a lull it’s time for an update on the 2013 Fall edition of the Top 20 game.

FROZEN was the monster smash of the season that no one saw coming, and some of us didn’t even think it was worthy of a roster slot a mere two months before it opened. Brockster and Six have dug themselves a huge hole by overlooking it, while Empire is praying that something gets bumped so he can activate it off his bench. Shaan was the other player who didn’t pick Frozen, which is interesting because he’s also the only player who picked GRAVITY, so he’s already wiped out his huge early advantage.

Everybody picked CATCHING FIRE and THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG, so no news there, but Banks was the only one to skip the other big holiday sequel, ANCHORMAN 2. With $125 million as it fades out of theatres, it should finish just barely outside the top 20, so Banks should be able to survive the omission.
The toughest decision of the season, and one of the main reasons for having a fall edition of this game, was choosing between the commercially-viable Oscar bait films on the market, and those choices should have a big impact on the final outcome.

AMERICAN HUSTLE was definitely the best pick of the bunch with $125 million already and a shot at $150 or more. Six and Shaan were the only ones to pick it, which is small consolation for not picking Frozen.

THE WOLF OF WALL ST. was a decent pick with $100 million already and a final tally that’s looking like $120 or so, making it a solid pick but not a game-changer for Banks and Brockster, the only two who didn’t pick it.

THE SECRET LIFE OF WALTER MITTY failed to recapture the success of Ben Stiller’s previous December outings, possibly because it looked too arty for mainstream audiences but didn’t have nearly enough buzz to compete with the other adult-leaning fare. It should finish south of $60 million, which is not what Chien, Empire, Surfer, and Ozzy had in mind when they picked it.

And Brockster has to regret his pick of 47 RONIN which couldn’t even muster $47 million. It’ll finish with less than $40 and be a black mark on his slate. He’s going to need a heroic push from HERCULES, NOAH, and THE MONUMENTS MEN, three films he picked that no one else did, to make up for a disappointing fall.

No one picked RIDE ALONG, which would have been a solid pick, and the next film we’re all wondering about is THE LEGO MOVIE which was picked by five out of nine players. Will it be a piece that fits neatly into the winning slate?
User avatar
JohnErle
Buzz Lightyear
 
Posts: 2334
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 4:01 am

Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

Postby JohnErle » May 8th, 2014, 1:58 pm

The yearly draft is over and the summer movie season is under way, so it's time to take a look back at the movies of the spring and see how they affected the Fall edition of the Box Office Top 20 game

Everyone picked Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which is hardly a surprise, but none of us picked Divergent, which was still a big question mark back in September. The franchise starter proved to be an above-average YA adaptation in terms of box office and a very worthy Top 20 pick. Banks actually has it on his bench, but unless one of his summer movies makes a last-minute date change, his bench is where it will stay.

The Lego Movie was the surprise smash of the spring, pulling in a whopping $253 million and change. That's awesome news for myself, Brockster, Empire, Six, and Surfer, but terrible news for everyone else.

The spring also saw three mid-level hits that are currently sitting at $106, $107, and $108 million. Since a film has needed an average of $130 million to crack the Top 20 over the past five years, two of these picks were less than ideal, but one of them should have enough air under its wings to approach the $130 milestone.

Rio 2 was wisely picked by everyone except Brockster and Surfer, 300: Rise Of An Empire was unfortunately picked by everyone except Banks, Brockster, and Empire, while Mr. Peabody & Sherman was avoided by everyone except Banks and Empire. I have it on my bench, but it probably won't come into play.

Brockster has the most distinctive slate of anyone in the game, and he was the only player to pick either Noah or Monuments Men. Noah will just barely crack the $100 million mark, falling into the close-but-not-quite category, while The Monuments Men fell short with roughly $77 million.

I also started plugging in box office numbers and so now we have the first standings of the year.

Total Box Office (in billions)

JohnErle: $2.36
Surfer: $2.31
Chien: $2.22
Six: $2.17
Shann: $2.13
Ozzy: $2.10
Empire: $2.02
Brockster: $1.84
Banks: $1.74

Average Box Office Per Pick (in millions)

Banks: $249.15
JohnErle: $214.23
Surfer: $209.76
Shaan: $193.38
Ozzy: $191.23
Chien: $185.28
Brock: $184.12
Empire: $183.36
Six: $180.67

Banks has the most heavily back-loaded slate with more summer movies than anyone, which explains how he's leading in average box office while having the lowest overall total.

He picked three summer movies that most other players avoided -- TMNT, Edge Of Tomorrow, and A Million Ways To Die in The West -- so a lot will depend on how well those movies perform. I can't see any of them doing $250 million, so his average is bound to come down. The only question is how far? And if I want to catch him while staying ahead of the pack, I need Guardians Of The Galaxy to underperform.

As for the battle of the basement, I think it's going to come down to Six, Empire, and Brockster. None of them picked Frozen, and when you throw in disappointing picks like Ender's Game (Six), The Secret Life Of Walter Mitty (Empire), and 47 Ronin (Brock), that's probably too much of a defecit to recover from.
User avatar
JohnErle
Buzz Lightyear
 
Posts: 2334
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 4:01 am

Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

Postby BrocksterDuex » May 8th, 2014, 2:50 pm

Well this was my first shot at this...I feel much more comfortable with my 2014 picks :)

This is the first time I've been in the drafts too, I expect a similar fate! Hopefully I'll get the hang of it soon.
User avatar
BrocksterDuex
Nick Naylor
 
Posts: 367
Joined: June 19th, 2013, 8:46 am

Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

Postby Chienfantome » May 8th, 2014, 8:05 pm

Obviously not picking Lego will ensure I will not compete for the win in this. Bummer, since I had put my faith in Lego everywhere else.
Fluctuat nec mergitur
User avatar
Chienfantome
The Terminator
 
Posts: 8731
Joined: May 29th, 2010, 4:22 am
Location: Paris, France

Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » May 9th, 2014, 12:04 am

I think The Lego Movie will be the deal breaker for those of us who didn't take it..
Alexandra Daddario: Eyes of a Demon, Face of My Future Ex-Wife
User avatar
BanksIsDaFuture
Alex
 
Posts: 5980
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 4:09 pm

Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

Postby JohnErle » May 9th, 2014, 12:44 am

You both need Godzilla to be a huge hit because only half of us took it. That could be another dealbreaker.
User avatar
JohnErle
Buzz Lightyear
 
Posts: 2334
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 4:01 am

Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

Postby JohnErle » June 10th, 2014, 7:43 am

The coming weekend could be the biggest of the summer, with two wide release movies that we all have on our slates. Since those won’t affect the standings at all, and since we’re gearing up for the stretch drive, it’s a good time to take a look back at the movies of May.

We all picked the SPIDER-MAN and X-MEN sequels, so good for us, but GODZILLA was only chosen by Banks, Brockster, Chien, Shaan, and Ozzy, so they’ll be happy with the approximately $200 million this monster will deliver before it lumbers back into the sea. The rest of us are green and scaly with envy.

No one picked NEIGHBORS, which would have been a smart move, but Surfer and I both saw potential in BLENDED, which wound up getting pureed by critics and will struggle to reach $50 million. The Wedding Singer this is not.

The other comedy flop of May was A MILLION WAYS TO DIE IN THE WEST, which Banks, Empire and Six all saddled themselves with. If Blended fell short of previous Sandler/Barrymore collaborations, Seth MacFarlane’s latest fell way short of Ted and probably won’t crack $50 million either.

MALEFICENT got off to a great start and had a solid hold in its second weekend, so it will easily soar above Snow White & The Huntsman, which had a similar style and release date two years ago. I’m projecting it to finish with at least $175 million and potentially more if all the little princesses out there keep going back for repeat viewings. That would be a fairy-tale ending for myself, Banks, and Brockster.

Here are the updated standings at the end of May, including projections for movies still in theatres:

Total Box Office (billions)
JohnErle: $3.06 (5 picks left)
Chien: $2.90 (5 picks left)
Surfer: $2.81 (6 picks left)
Shaan: $2.80 (6 picks left)
Ozzy: $2.78 (6 picks left)
Banks: $2.74 (7 picks left)
Six: $2.69 ( 5 picks left)
Brock: $2.68 (6 picks left)
Empire: $2.54 (6 picks left)

Average BO per pick (millions)
Banks: $210.47
JohnErle: $204.33
Surfer: $200.58
Shaan: $200.18
Ozzy: $198.51
Chien: $193.26
Brock: $191.48
Empire: $181.54
Six: $179.41

Banks' average has come way down thanks to A Million Ways To Die In The West and my projected total of $85 million for Edge Of Tomorrow, but with seven movies still to open he's still poised to make a late run for the gold.

I'm the first to crack the 3 billion mark, but if I want to hold on to the lead I need Tammy to do well and for Guardians Of The Galaxy to be a typical mid-level August hit or lower.
Last edited by JohnErle on June 10th, 2014, 8:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
JohnErle
Buzz Lightyear
 
Posts: 2334
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 4:01 am

Re: Box Office Top 20 - Fall 2013

Postby numbersix » June 10th, 2014, 7:54 am

Oh dear, I'm not too well in this game, am I? It's actually a great addition to the other games, as it makes us really think about what could perform well the next summer over, which we don't normally do.
User avatar
numbersix
Keyser Soze
 
Posts: 9597
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

PreviousNext

Return to More Games

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest