THE OFFICIAL 2013 FANTASY GAME THREAD v2.0

[Geezer]

Actually, for the summer I use a different multiplier for super-wide releases, usually around 7-8. For limited minor wide releases I still think 4-5 is more accurate. I don't think a one-size-fits-all multiplier even works.

Well I guess that is where we disagree. I think a universal multiplier for all films in a particular season is the ONLY thing that works. Otherwise, what is the incentive to ever pick the films that are only going to garner a 4-5 multiplier, when there are all those juicy 7-8 multiplier films out there. If the goal is to increase strategy and difficulty, then the incentive to take each film should be equalized. That is why I think a ton of the box office prices in July and August are way too high this season. I anticipate HEAVY frontloading, and that any slate without Man Of Steel on it will surely be doomed. If the later month films were half their price, one could conceivably build a slate to beat one with Man of Steel, not the case as currently constructed. Just my two cents.

[Shrykespeare]

I stand corrected again, Chien. My memory is getting shorter and shorter these days. Sorry for the confusion.

[Buscemi]

Now, I know I'm no longer in the pricing guild (or whatever the hell it's called) but who decided that Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain should only be $2? It's getting a wide release (one of the theatres near me has been selling tickets for the past few movies), Hart's last concert film did well in a much smaller number of theatres and it's opening on Independence Day weekend. This could make $15-20 million in the first five days but it gets priced below a number of no hoper titles.

Apparently you are the only one who assumes it is opening wide. Because according to BOM, it is not. It should also have a bad imdb score, get very few if any PTA points, and not a single top 5. When is the last time a stand up movie did well at the box office? I think the answer is never.

Once again, Box Office Mojo is rarely ever an accurate indicator for release dates (and there are times where they don't list movies until after they open). The Kevin Hart movie has been having pre-sales at a lot of theatres (check the theatre sites and you'll see a large number of theatres already selling tickets) and by the looks of it, should be in 750-1,000 theatres on July 3rd.

As for stand-up movies rarely making money, Laugh at My Pain grossed $7.7 million in just 287 theatres (and opened to nearly $2 million in less than 100 theatres). And the IMDb rating was a strong 6.7. Also, the few stand-up movies given decent sized releases have done well (the exceptions being the Vince Vaughn movie and DysFunktional Family from 2003). And on PTA and Top 5 points, the per-theatre averages should be very strong on opening weekend (a $15,000-$20,000 PTA is very possible, even with heavy competition) and it should earn a good $25-30 million in the bank.

[Geezer]

Well, then you should take it and laugh at all of our stupidity when it happens

[Shrykespeare]

Okay, all, I have removed all of the eliminated studios and plugged the numbers into my spreadsheet for the players that remain in Round Four.

I will have an update either later tonight or tomorrow.

[Shrykespeare]

Voila.


Ultimate Full-Year Round Four (4 weeks to go)

Green Zone:
1. silversurfer, 117 pts (Before Midnight) (Has an IM)
2. empire13, 113.5 pts (Before Midnight) (Has an IM)

Chasing:
3. Chienfantome, 104 pts (Before Midnight… White House Down) (Has an IM)
4. SuperShaan, 96 pts (Before Midnight, The East… 1 hidden, $14 unspent) (Has an IM)

Red Zone:
26. sawbran, 27.5 pts (Before Midnight… The Purge, The Bling Ring, Monsters University, The Heat)
27. Geezer, 26 pts (none… 3 hidden, $61 unspent)
28. Scripps, 16 pts (Before Midnight, The East… World War Z, Monsters University, White House Down)
29. smee2000, 14 pts (Star Trek Into Darkness, Before Midnight, Now You See Me… World War Z, Monsters University, Byzantium)
30. undeadmonkey, 8 pts (Star Trek Into Darkness, Before Midnight, Now You See Me… The Purge, The Bling Ring, Monsters University, A Hijacking, The Heat)



Ultimate Half-Year Round Four (4 weeks to go)

Yellow Zone:
1. silversurfer, 72 pts (Before Midnight)
2. Chienfantome, 67 pts (none… White House Down)
3. wcrew2000, 62.5 pts (Fast & Furious 6, Before Midnight, The East)
4. Brockster, 54.5 pts (Epic… 1 hidden, $3 unspent)
5. empire13, 50 pts (The East… 2 hidden, $27 unspent) (Has an IM)
T6. SuperShaan, 48.5 pts (Before Midnight… 3 hidden, $23 unspent)
T6. numbersix, 48.5 pts (The East… This is the End, The Heat)
8. jas_8382, 47 pts (Before Midnight, The East… 1 hidden, $21 unspent)
9. leestu, 45.5 pts (Star Trek Into Darkness, Epic, Before Midnight, The East… This is the End) (Has an IM)
10. Shrykespeare, 40 pts (Fast & Furious 6… 2 hidden, $13 unspent)

Red Zone:
11. Ron Burgundy, 39 pts (none… The Purge, Unfinished Song) (Has an IM)
12. Walleye413, 38 pts (Star Trek Into Darkness, Fast & Furious 6, Before Midnight… The Bling Ring)
13. Shonenbat, 29.5 pts (Before Midnight… The Purge, Monsters University, Byzantium) [/b](Has an IM)[/b]
T14. kblane, 26 pts (Before Midnight… The Purge, This is the End, The Heat) [/b](Has an IM)[/b]
T14. audreytheconqueror, 26 pts (Before Midnight… Monsters University, The Heat)
16. donnie, 25.5 pts (The East… 5 hidden, $40 unspent)
17. englishozzy, 16 pts (Before Midnight, The East… 3 hidden, $39 unspent)
18. Geezer, 15 pts (none… 3 hidden, $61 unspent)
19. Scripps, 9.5 pts (Star Trek Into Darkness, Before Midnight, The East… World War Z, Monsters University, The Heat)



Box Office Full-Year Round Four (4 weeks to go)

Green Zone:
1. empire13, $660.2M (Star Trek Into Darkness)
T2. ColoredXIII, $659.1M (Star Trek Into Darkness)
T2. Spectre, $659.1M (Star Trek Into Darkness)

Chasing:
4. JohnErle, $622.7M (Epic, Fast & Furious 6)

Red Zone:
29. Fixius, $385.2M (none… spots open)
30. englishozzy, $322.9M (Star Trek Into Darkness… 2 hidden, $35 unspent) (Has an IM)
31. undeadmonkey, $298.9M (Star Trek Into Darkness, Now You See Me… The Purge, Monsters University)
32. Chienfantome, $247.7M (Star Trek Into Darkness, Epic… Man of Steel, The Heat) [/b](Has an IM)[/b]
33. JackO, $182.4M (Star Trek Into Darkness… Man of Steel, The Bling Ring, Monsters University)
34. jas_8382, $181.5M (Star Trek Into Darkness… 4 hidden, $61 unspent)



Box Office Half-Year Round Four (4 weeks to go)

Yellow Zone:
1. empire13, $660.2M (Star Trek Into Darkness)
T2. Ron Burgundy, $644.3M (Fast & Furious 6)
T2. Shrykespeare, $644.3M (Fast & Furious 6)
4. Geezer, $601.8M (none… 1 hidden, $14 unspent)
T5. Scripps, $ 596.0M (Star Trek Into Darkness, Now You See Me… Dirty Wars)
T5. W, $596.0M (Star Trek Into Darkness, Now You See Me… Byzantium)
7. bestfilm, $567.5M (Star Trek Into Darkness… 2 hidden, $10 unspent)
8. SuperShaan, $566.7M (Star Trek Into Darkness… 3 hidden, $13 unspent)
T9. donnie, $556.2M (Fast & Furious 6… 2 hidden, $22 unspent) (Has an IM)
T9. aquamann, $556.2M (Fast & Furious 6… Monsters University, I’m So Excited)
T9. Chienfantome, $556.2M (Fast & Furious 6… This is the End, White House Down) [/b](Has an IM)[/b]
T9. Shonenbat, $556.2M (Fast & Furious 6… 3 hidden, $22 unspent)
11. englishozzy, $513.7M (none… 2 hidden, $36 unspent)

Red Zone:
12. Brockster, $450.6M (Epic… 2 hidden, $33 unspent)
13. redraider, $448.0M (Fast & Furious 6… 1 hidden, $17 unspent)
14. wcrew2000, $442.2M (Star Trek Into Darkness, Fast & Furious 6)
15. sawbran, $387.5M (none… Man of Steel, The Bling Ring, World War Z)
16. Fixius, $385.2M (none… spots open, $52 unspent)
17. undeadmonkey, $352.5M (Star Trek Into Darkness, Fast & Furious 6… Monsters University, The Heat)
T18. numbersix, $270.1M (Star Trek Into Darkness… Man of Steel)
T18. pulpdogs, $270.1M (Star Trek Into Darkness… Man of Steel)
20. KeyserSoze, $181.6M (Star Trek Into Darkness… Man of Steel, Monsters University, White House Down) (Has an IM)
T21. JackO, $181.5M (Star Trek Into Darkness… The Purge, Man of Steel, The Bling Ring, Monsters University)
T21. jas_8382, $181.5M (Star Trek Into Darkness… 4 hidden, $61 unspent)

[Chienfantome]

I stand corrected again, Chien. My memory is getting shorter and shorter these days. Sorry for the confusion.

You were forgiven even before apologizing, Shryke

As for Round 4, well, not a great round for BO for me. And the "Yellow zone" shows it's a tough round to determine.

[Shrykespeare]

According to the updates, bestfilm did finish above Geezer in the standings in the Ult HY1 R3. Whether this was because of an error on my part or whether it was because of a Ratings discrepancy that was never fixed, I'm not sure.

If it proves to be the former, I'll un-eliminate bestfilm.


In the meantime, here are the results of the March Regulars Leagues.


Regulars Ultimate League (MAR) - "Least Favorite Best Picture Winner of All Time"

Winner: Brockster
Runner-Up: SuperShaan
3rd place: leestu



Regulars Box Office League (MAR) - "Least Favorite Robert De Niro FilM"

Winner: jas_8382
Runner-Up: SuperShaan
3rd place: silversurfer


Poor Shaan, he gets to be the bridesmaid twice this month.

Empire, please remember to update the trophy room.

[empire13]

I'm on it.

Wow! I wish the super leagues ended today!!

[Geezer]

I'm not sure where the discrepancy is, Six, but I DO know that the site has still never added my IMDB points for Java Heat.

[Shrykespeare]

I'm not sure where the discrepancy is, Six, but I DO know that the site has still never added my IMDB points for Java Heat.

That's probably it, then.

[SuperShaan]

Poor Shaan, he gets to be the bridesmaid twice this month.

One of these days I will win

[Shrykespeare]

Ultimate Full-Year Round Four (3 weeks to go)

Green Zone:
1. silversurfer, 113 pts (Before Midnight) (Has an IM)
2. Chienfantome, 112 pts (Before Midnight, The Purge) (Has an IM)

Chasing:
5. SuperShaan, 93.5 pts (Before Midnight… 1 hidden, $14 unspent) (Has an IM)

Red Zone:
26. englishozzy, 26.5 pts (Before Midnight… 3 hidden, $38 unspent
27. Geezer, 17 pts (none… 3 hidden, $61 unspent)
28. undeadmonkey, 14 pts (Before Midnight, Now You See Me, The Purge… The Bling Ring, Monsters University, A Hijacking, The Heat)
29. Scripps, 13.5 pts (Before Midnight… World War Z, Monsters University, White House Down)
30. smee2000, 12 pts (Before Midnight, Now You See Me… World War Z, Monsters University, Byzantium)



Ultimate Half-Year Round Four (3 weeks to go)

Yellow Zone:
1. Chienfantome, 70.5 pts (The Purge)
2. silversurfer, 70 pts (Before Midnight)
3. wcrew2000, 63.5 pts (Fast & Furious 6, Before Midnight)
4. SuperShaan, 55 pts (Before Midnight, The Purge… 2 hidden, $17 unspent)
5. empire13, 52 pts (The Purge… 1 hidden, $21 unspent) (Has an IM)
6. Brockster, 50 pts (Epic… 1 hidden, $3 unspent)
7. Ron Burgundy, 42.5 pts (The Purge… Unfinished Song) (Has an IM)
T8. jas_8382, 41.5 pts (Before Midnight… 1 hidden, $21 unspent)
T8. leestu, 41.5 pts (Epic, Before Midnight… This is the End) (Has an IM)
10. numbersix, 40.5 pts (none… This is the End, The Heat)

Red Zone:
11. Walleye413, 39.5 pts (Fast & Furious 6, Before Midnight… The Bling Ring)
12. Shonenbat, 37.5 pts (Before Midnight, The Purge… Monsters University, Byzantium) [/b](Has an IM)[/b]
13. Shrykespeare, 36.5 pts (Fast & Furious 6… 2 hidden, $13 unspent)
14. kblane, 33.5 pts (Before Midnight, The Purge… This is the End, The Heat) [/b](Has an IM)[/b]
15. donnie, 29 pts (Much Ado About Nothing… 4 hidden, $36 unspent)
16. audreytheconqueror, 21 pts (Before Midnight… Monsters University, The Heat)
17. englishozzy, 19 pts (Before Midnight… 2 hidden, $36 unspent)
18. Geezer, 11 pts (none… 3 hidden, $61 unspent)
19. Scripps, 6 pts (Before Midnight… World War Z, Monsters University, The Heat)



Box Office Full-Year Round Four (3 weeks to go)

Green Zone:
1. empire13, $688.2M (none)
T2. ColoredXIII, $687.4M (none)
T2. Spectre, $687.4M (none)

Chasing:
4. JohnErle, $682.2M (Epic, Fast & Furious 6)

Red Zone:
29. sawbran, $396.6M (Now You See Me, The Purge… Monsters University)
30. undeadmonkey, $383.3M (Now You See Me, The Purge… Monsters University)
31. englishozzy, $342.0M (none… 2 hidden, $35 unspent) (Has an IM)
32. Chienfantome, $285.3M (Epic… Man of Steel, The Heat) [/b](Has an IM)[/b]
33. JackO, $201.7M (none… Man of Steel, The Bling Ring, Monsters University)
34. jas_8382, $199.9M (none… 4 hidden, $61 unspent)



Box Office Half-Year Round Four (3 weeks to go)

Yellow Zone:
1. empire13, $688.2M (none)
T2. Ron Burgundy, $685.6M (Fast & Furious 6)
T2. Shrykespeare, $685.6M (Fast & Furious 6)
4. Scripps, $655.1M (Now You See Me)
5. W, $655.1M (Now You See Me… Byzantium)
6. Chienfantome, $631.2M (Fast & Furious 6, The Purge… This is the End, The Bling Ring) [/b](Has an IM)[/b]
7. SuperShaan, $628.2M (The Purge… 2 hidden, $8 unspent)
8. Geezer, $618.9M (none… 1 hidden, $14 unspent)
9. Shonenbat, $597.2M (Fast & Furious 6… 2 hidden, $21 unspent)
T10. donnie, $597.1M (Fast & Furious 6… 2 hidden, $22 unspent) (Has an IM)
T10. aquamann, $597.1M (Fast & Furious 6… Monsters University, I’m So Excited)
12. bestfilm, $595.8M (none… 1 hidden, $7 unspent)
13. englishozzy, $530.5M (none… 2 hidden, $36 unspent)

Red Zone:
14. Brockster, $512.3M (Epic, The Purge… 1 hidden, $28 unspent)
15. wcrew2000, $506.2M (Fast & Furious 6)
16. redraider, $505.1M (Fast & Furious 6, The Internship)
17. Fixius, $428.3M (The Purge… This is the End, Man of Steel)
18. undeadmonkey, $402.7M (Fast & Furious 6… Monsters University, The Heat)
19. sawbran, $396.6M (none… Man of Steel, The Bling Ring, World War Z)
T20. numbersix, $302.2M (none… Man of Steel)
T20. pulpdogs, $302.2M (none… Man of Steel)
22. JackO, $233.9M (The Purge… Man of Steel, The Bling Ring, Monsters University)
23. KeyserSoze, $199.9M (none… Man of Steel, Monsters University, White House Down) (Has an IM)
T21. jas_8382, $199.9M (none… 4 hidden, $61 unspent)

[Chienfantome]

Well I'm glad I stuffed my slates with The Purge !

[silversurfer19]

Yeah, I'd ran out of room to fit The Purge in this round of slates, looks like you've beaten me this time.