2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

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JohnErle
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Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by JohnErle »

I hadn't noticed that about Shonenbat. Smart fella that Shonenbat. ;-)

My understanding is that the new Wolverine takes place after the events of The Last Stand, but it's all so confusing at this point that only the hardcore X-Men fans can keep track. I think the average Joe will just say "Wolverine's back! Awesome!"

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Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by Buscemi »

On 300 2: it's been six years since the last one and Rodrigo Santoro isn't Gerard Butler (though unlike Butler, Santoro is actually a decent actor). It might do well in markets like Los Angeles but it won't sell in markets that made 300 a hit.

On Ender's Game: they probably waited too long to adapt this one. Had it been produced in the 1980's, it would have been a smash. But in 2013, with Orson Scott Card being more known for his far-right politics and the series having declined after the first two books, it's going to have a niche appeal. Also, it being from the same studio as Catching Fire (which is being overpredicted, since the first film had no competition while this one does plus Catching Fire's early marketing is awful) so that will limit the prints and ad budget.
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Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Catching Fire has no competition until The Hobbit 2, which is almost 4 weeks after.
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Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by Brockster »

Boosh...we get it...you don't like the Hunger Games...the endless bashing is getting old.

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Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by Buscemi »

That's not true, Banks. Thor 2 opens a week earlier (and with Chris Hemsworth becoming a big star and popular with women, that will steal much of Catching Fire's audience) and Frozen opens one week later (there are audiences that will want a more traditional fantasy film). Sure, you might say "but didn't the first Thor fail to hit $200 million?" but back when that film came out, no one knew who Hemsworth was. Now, he's got a few hits under his belt and has heartthrob status. Can Josh Hutcherson claim that?

Meanwhile, I can't help but think of Prince Caspian when looking at Catching Fire. That series (Narnia) had a huge built-in audience for its first film and had little to no competition and was a box office monster when it came out (adjusted for inflation, the film grossed $364 million domestic). But by the time the second film opened, it faced Iron Man and the fourth Indiana Jones and made less than half of its predecessor. Though Catching Fire won't have as big of a drop, to think that it will increase on its predecessor despite studios actually putting product out against it is a pipe dream.
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Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by Chienfantome »

But Boosch, That first Narnia film was awful. I'll agree that Hunger Games isn't much more better in my opinion, but people loved it, actually. And I'm pretty sure almost everyone who saw the first one will want to see the sequel. Anyway, let's not start that again... ;)

I think my biggest risk in the Top 20 Super Constest is picking World War Z. Knowing the troubled production... But in fact I'm pretty sure no one will know about those problems, and people will just see it as a sci-fi epic with Brad Pitt opening in the middle of summer.
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Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by Buscemi »

It's probably a matter of opinion but in 2005, people adored the first Narnia film (especially religious audiences and children). When you can't get that crowd to show for the sequel, you know something went wrong (my guess is that the producers waited too long to do a sequel). But still, I view The Hunger Games series as being similar to The Chronicles of Narnia: same middle America audience, heavily-hyped first installment released in an empty market and the sequel opens up in a more crowded market. I guess it's a wait and see.

As for World War Z, that was doomed the minute the trailer came out and revealed itself to be an I Am Legend clone.
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Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by numbersix »

Hunger Games is a faocus franchise. Narnia is not (some of the bookes deal with the kids but in different times). In terms of the books, the fans of Naria drifted away from the "franchise", while with Hunger Games it was much more linked. Like Twilight (as Boosch loves to compare). By that logic the worst Catching Fire will do it still over 300m.

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Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by Buscemi »

You can't really compare Catching Fire to New Moon. The Twilight movies always opened against other big movies (except the first Breaking Dawn, which failed to capitalize) and the second film's $100 million increase was more due to the juggernaut developing inbetween the two films instead before the first film. With The Hunger Games, it already feels like the franchise is declining and the director change was not a popular one.
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Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by Shrykespeare »

Well, I think that Narnia: LWW succeeded because it was a well-known and beloved series of books that came out right in the midst of the Harry Potter series and not that long after LOTR ended. Caspian underwhelmed because it was a much less interesting story.

Catching Fire will certainly not duplicate Hunger Games, but it should still do fine. Filmgoers love literary trilogies (or quadrilogies, quintilogies, etc.) and there are no others currently out (except The Hobbit, which was not and should not have been a trilogy). $300m is definitely possible (I wouldn't have put it at #1 if I thought otherwise).
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Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by Chienfantome »

PLus the general audience doesn't care who's the director. If you ask people who directed the 1st Hunger Games film, I doubt half of them will say "Gary Ross" spontaneously. And most of them won't even know it's a new director.
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Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by Buscemi »

But fans can look up the previous track records of directors. When they see that a director did Pleasantville and Seabiscuit, they can sleep easy. But when they see that a director did Constantine and I Am Legend, it's a word of caution.
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Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by Chienfantome »

But moviegoers do not check what the director has made before when they go see a new film like the second Hunger Games. They go to see the follow-up of the adventure they saw and loved the first time, and they mostly don't care who filmed.
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Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by Buscemi »

But when directors change, you know to expect a different style. If that style doesn't sit well with audiences, you know who to blame. I expect Francis Lawrence's style to be radically different (Ross goes more for drama, Lawrence likes action and glamour) and for a franchise that goes for tension, I expect that the style of an action hack will not be popular for a teen girl franchise.
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Re: 2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

Post by Shrykespeare »

We'll see. Once upon a time I wouldn't have thought Guy Ritchie could elevate his game to a multi-blockbuster level, but he sure proved me (and a lot of other people) wrong, didn't he?
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