2013 Super Contest - Pick the Top 20 Films

[numbersix]

Shaan you have 21 films in your Top 20. You have 2 #15s, Epic and Frozen. Can you change asap?

[SuperShaan]

Fixed it, sorry about that!

[Shonenbat]

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
2. Iron Man 3
3. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
4. Star Trek 2
5. Despicable Me 2
6. Thor: The Dark World
7. Monsters University
8. Hangover 3
9. Man Of Steel
10. Frozen
11. Fast and Furious 6
12. Turbo
13. Oz: The Great and Powerful
14. The Croods
15. The Smurfs 2
16. Lone Ranger
17. GI Joe 2
18. Pacific Rim
19. Cloudy 2
20. White House Down

Bench
21 Epic
22 Wolverine

[empire13]

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
2. Iron Man 3
3. Star Trek Into Darkness
4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
5. Monsters University
6. Despicable Me 2
7. The Hangover Part III
8. Man of Steel
9. Fast & Furious 6
10. Thor: The Dark World
11. Oz The Great and Powerful
12. The Croods
13. G.I. Joe: Retaliation
14. The Heat
15. Turbo
16. After Earth
17. Frozen
18. Elysium
19. The Smurfs 2
20. Epic

Bench
21. Ender's Game
22. The Wolverine

[redraider]

1.The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
2. Iron Man 3
3. Star Trek: Into Darkness
4. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
5. Monsters University
6. Man of Steel
7. Fast & Furious 6
8. Despicable Me 2
9. Oz: The Great and Powerful
10. The Hangover 3
11. Thor: The Dark World
12. Frozen
13. The Wolverine
14. Jack Ryan
15. Epic
16. The Heat
17. The Croods
18. Turbo
19. Ender's Game
20. After Earth
Bench 1. White House Down
Bench 2. Saving Mr. Banks

[W]

1. Hunger Games: Catching Fire
2. Iron Man III
3. Star Trek 2
4. Hobbit 2
5. Monsters U
6. Man of Steel
7. Thor 2
8. Hangover III
9. Despicable Me 2
10. Oz
11. Wolverine 2
12. After Earth
13. World War Z
14. Fast 6
15. Ender's Game
16. Lone Ranger
17. Oblivion
18. Anchorman
19. Frozen
20. Grown Ups 2

X - Jay and Seth vs the Apocalypse (or whatever it's called now)
Xx - Elysium

[BanksIsDaFuture]

1 - The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
2 - Star Trek Into Darkness
3 - Iron Man 3
4 - The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug
5 - Fast Six
6 - Man Of Steel
7 - Monsters University
8 - Despicable Me 2
9 - Thor: The Dark World
10 - Oz: The Great And Powerful
11 - The Hangover Part III
12 - The Lone Ranger
13 - After Earth
14 - Turbo
15 - Frozen
16 - The Wolverine
17 - This Is The End
18 - The Smurfs 2
19 - Anchorman: The Legend Continues
20 - White House Down

Bench:
1 - Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs 2
2 - Pacific Rim

[BanksIsDaFuture]

P.S. - This was really, really hard. I had to leave out such questions marks as Elysium, Grown Ups 2, 300 2, Walter Mitty, World War Z, Great Gasby, Epic, Oblivion, Ender's Game, etc etc....

[numbersix]

And submissions are now closed. Thanks for entering, everyone. 18 entrants in total. Some analysis (and trash talk) coming soon.

[JohnErle]

There does seem to be more overlap than last year. Lots of movies that seem to be on almost everyone's slate.

[numbersix]

Yep, lots of overlap this ear. Possibly due to the risks last year backfiring on most of us.

Here's some breakdown info

Overall 41 films were picked, which is the exact same amount as last year. But there are more of us this year, hence more crossover.

11 films were picked by all 18 of us: Hunger Games 2, Iron Man 3, The Hobbit Pt 2, Start Trek 2, Man of Steel, Monsters University, Despicable Me 2, Thor 2, Oz, Hangover 3, and Fast and Furious 6.

There was one film everyone picked besides me: The Wolverine. Ultimately, I think the first film created a lot of bad taste with fans. It had awful legs when it opened. The sequel is buried further into the summer and faces plenty of competition, so I can see it opening to 50m but not making much beyond 100m at best.

Brock and UDM shyed away from Frozen, perhaps seeing it as a Rise of the Guardians. 13 of us picked Ender's Game, Lone Ranger, and Epic. I'm not sure about Lone Ranger. Its Independence Day date is probably the only reason it'll pass 100m. I think Ender's Game is going to be huge, so shame on you who didn't pick it.

11 of us picked White House Down and Turbo. I'm not sure either will cross 100m. 10 of us picked The Croods.

8 of us picked After Earth, Cloudy 2, Anchorman 2, The Smurfs 2, and Pacific Rim. I think After Earth and Pacific Rim will be dominated by more appealing fare over the summer. Smurfs is going to have to struggle through August, a month where kids flicks rarely explode. Cloudy 2 should play like Hotel Transylvania, and Anchorman 2 looks like the best bet for Christmas so far.

7 people picked Elysium and World War Z. The latter feels like a crap-shoot to me, but I opted against it because of the inevitable fan backlash and poor production history. Elysium is a total shot in the dark, one I ultimately went for.

5 people picked GI Joe 2 and Jack Ryan. I think GI Joe 2 is an unwanted sequel and will make a lot less than the original. It'll play like Wrath of the Titans. I also lost faith in Jack Ryan after how poorly Jack Reacher played out. No more Jacks for me.

4 picked Die Hard 5, This is the End and The Heat. I regret not picking the latter, as it could be the hit comedy of the summer. Die Hard looks like it will hit 100m, though I was hoping for more.

3 picked Grown Ups 2 and Saving Mr Banks. The former makes sense, as the summer will have at least one surprise hit comedy, but Sandler's career is on a descent at the moment. And Saving Banks could be Oscar Bait that only will amount to a mid level hit at best.

W and Brock picked Oblivion. A good idea but not sure how big it can go with an April release. Then again, it worked for Fast 5.

Boosch and Shryke picked Mr Peabody, which has been pushed to 2014. Shryke is cursed, I tells ya, CURSED!

Brock and myself picked The Great Gatsby. The way I see it, it's a risky example of counter-programming, aiming for the older audience instead of the ones who'll flock to Star Trek and Iron Man. It won't open particularly high, but it might just have super-long legs.

Only 6 films were picked once (unlike last year when 9 films were). Wrestler went for The Host and Planes. The former is a risk. It could be huge or a bomb. Planes is another August kids film, and I just don't see it soaring high (heh) in the box office. Boosch picked Walking with Dinosaurs. The logic is sound (it's the only kid-targeted movie scheduled), but it doesn't scream out 100m+. UDM picked Red 2 and Now You See Me. Both surprised me. I can't see Red 2 doing much more than the first film, and Now You See Me probably won't explode. But perhaps there's method in the madness.

And finally, I was the one who picked up the unscheduled Wolf on Wall St. I was struggling hard to find what would be the next Argo or Lincoln, a critics-and-awards dependant film that just holds and holds over the holidays. Considering it has wrapped, and considering the level of cast, I figured I'd take a risk and hope it'll hit $125m and win lots of awards. I also considered August: Osage County and Walter Mitty.

[JohnErle]

Thanks for the recap.

With all the overlap, did you notice if any two users picked the same 22 films, making the order relevant as a possible tiebreaker?

I went for a very safe slate this year and most of my picks were also chosen by a lot of other players. I guess my riskiest pick according to the group is GI Joe, and on paper I agree that it's an unwanted sequel, but based on the trailers I think it'll do very well, kinda like other sequels no one really asked for like MI:4 and that Fast And Furious sequel that came out of nowhere when the franchise seemed dead.

The biggest surprise for me is how many people were so high on Ender's Game. I've read the book and don't see how they're going to turn in into a film with any mainstream appeal. I think it could flop hard, and with no currently bankable stars, the director of that Wolverine movie you say everyone hated, and Summit as distributor, I think it's a big risk. (EDIT: Actually, I just read that the plot combines two of the Ender books, while I've only read the first, so I can't say whether that makes me feel more of less confident about it's chances. I wonder if this means the huge anti-climax of the first book happens in the middle of the movie?)

[JohnErle]

And regarding The Wolverine, I think any blowback from that Origins movie was already absorbed by X-Men First Class which got the franchise's momentum going again. When Wolverine had his cameo in that movie there was a huge cheer from the audience, so I think there's still plenty of demand for the character. The only real question is whether James Mangold can handle a superhero movie, but I think you'll probably regret not picking Wolverine.

[numbersix]

Actually, John, your slate and Shonenbat's is the same, except with a different order (and different Bench films). So if you both top the list it's all down to order.

Besides that Chien's and Ozzy's is very similar, Wrestler and UDM's is similar, etc. So yeah, a lot of similar slates with only 2 or 3 differences. It's going ot be a close one.

As for Ender's Game, I haven't read the books so don't know. I just figured that people are hungry for a new franchise and this may appeal to the sci-fi geeks more than Hunger Games did. Could be a bomb, that's true, but I have faith.

Good point re: Wolverine, but I wonder if people will see the prequel as a different universe of X-Men (despite Jackman's cameo) and when they see the trailers for this all they'll think of is that awful solo adventure from so long ago. Maybe if it was in June or early July I would have felt it had more potential, but with a late July release, and with Red 2, 300 pt 2, and Elysium coming up afterwards I just don't see the legs.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

With Ender's Game, isn't it an adult-aimed sic-fi film starring children? Yeah, Harrison Ford's is in a supporting role, but when's the last time a grown up movie starring kid actors was successful? Plus, Thor and Catching Fire should cut its legs out from under it...

And nobody picked 300 2? Isn't it more of a spin-off than a sequel since it'll focus on Xerxes? I think it'll flop and I guess everyone agrees with me