2018 Box Office Top 20 Contest

[numbersix]

It's 2018 time!

THE RULES

Each entrant must choose what they think will be the Box Office Top 20 films of the year, in the correct order. You can only choose films released in the calendar year.

Each entrant also can pick 2 "bench" films. This means that if one or two of the films chosen in their Top 20 gets moved to 2019 or beyond, the bench picks will now be activated. Make sure to order your bench films correctly (i.e. your #1 bench film will be the first picked if one Top 20 choices loses its date)

Winners will be announced by the end of January 2019, to give films that open in late December a fighting chance. The winner will be the person with the most dollars earned by then.

If any two people have the same slate of films, the tie-breaker will be based on the accuracy of order.

The closing date for entries is midnight Thursday January 25th.

Once you post your list you cannot change it, so choose wisely.

If you want to pick a film from January or early February on your list you must submit your list by midnight of the Tuesday before that film opens. For example, if you want to include Maze Runner: The Death Cure (opens Jan 26th) in your list, then you must submit your list by midnight Jan 23rd. This is to avoid anyone using accurate tracking information to gain an advantage.

Good luck!

[undeadmonkey]

Is it just me or does this get more difficult every year?

10 years ago, you could pick out the top 10 movies and there might be 1 or 2 potential breakouts or flops that would mess with top 10, now there is nothing guaranteed besides Superhero movies and star wars.

[Walleye413]

I'm with you UDM. Looking at our lists from last year, we got the obvious ones, but missed on some big surprises. And stuff we thought would be Meh turned out way bigger than we thought - not to mention the reverse (I'm looking at you Justice League.)

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Let's get my last place slate out of the way.

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. The Incredibles 2
3. Solo: A Star Wars Story
4. Jurassic World: Forbidden Kingdom
5. Deadpool 2
6. Ocean's 8
7. The Grinch
8. Wreck-It Ralph 2
9. Black Panther
10. Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again
11. Fantastic Beasts: Crimes of Grindelwald
12. Mary Poppins Returns
13. Mulan
14. A Wrinkle In Time
15. Mission Impossible 6
16. Hotel Transylvania 3
17. Dark Phoenix
18. Ready Player One
19. Ant-Man and The Wasp
20. Spider-Man: Into The Spider Verse

Bench: Aquaman
Bench 2: Bumblebee

[Walleye413]

Dang, I wanted to post my last place slate first

1. Avengers (A sequel)
2. Incredibles 2 (sequel)
3. Jurassic World (sequel)
4. Solo (New story, shared universe)
5. Mulan (Remake)
6. A Wrinkle in Time (Original movie based on a book)
7. Black Panther (New story, shared universe)
8. Fantastic Beasts 2 (Sequel)
9. Deadpool 2 (sequel)
10. Ant-man and Wasp (sequel)
11. Ralph Breaks the Internet (sequel)
12. Venom (New story, shared universe)
13. Dark Phoenix (sequel)
14. Smallfoot (Original idea!!!!)
15. Oceans 8 (New story, shared universe)
16. Ready Player One (Original movie based on a book)
17. Mission Impossible 6 (Sequel)
18. Aquaman (New Story, shared Universe)
19. Mary Poppins (Sequel)
20. Crazy Rich Asians (Original movie based on a book)

21. Hotel Transylvania 3 (Sequel)
22. The Nutcracker and the 4 Realms (Remake? Kind of?)


So by my count that's one Original movie, 3 original movies based on books, and 5 New stories from shared Universes. Hollywood. The cutting edge of creativity!

[W]

So by my count that's one Original movie, 3 original movies based on books, and 5 New stories from shared Universes. Hollywood. The cutting edge of creativity!

Those are the ones making money because people are going to them. And we're picking movies based on what's going to make money. If I'm an oil driller and people are making $1 billion off a $100 M investment in Marvel Town and Star Wars County, I'm setting up shop there. Anything original that sneaks in there besides a sequel/remake/etc will have a micro to mid budget or be behind an already established brand (Nolan, PIXAR, Illumination, Dreamworks animation, etc).

It, Get Out, Split, Wonder, Girls Trip, Baby Driver, and Annabelle are the only ones last year to make over $100 M and not have a budget over $50 M (out of 31 total over $100 M). Three of those are wholly original and one was wholly original except for like ten minutes of the film. Studios make original films but the ones with a built-in following are the ones that will make the top 20. Look at literally every movie that won a Golden Globe this weekend: Three Billboards, Lady Bird, Darkest Hour, Disaster Artist, I Tonya, Shape of Water, Greatest Showman, Coco... All are original (as far as history films can be original) and only one of those made over $100 M (Coco) and it is from an established brand with a large budget (the only other one that may hit $100 M had a large budget, Greatest Showman).

People aren't going to see Lady Bird, Three Billboards, and mother!, they're going to see established superheroes, Disney, and Star Wars.

[Walleye413]

I certainly agree with you. From an investment standpoint it makes sense, and you can't blame smart investors. But I think there are some really smart investments that are missed and/or ignored. Look at some of the ones you mentioned - Baby Driver, Wonder, The Greatest Showman, Get Out. Add in Hidden Figures, Sully, La La Land, Arrival, or Bad Moms from the year before. Or take your pick from the year before that. Those were smart, creative, movies that people actually enjoyed. And they weren't all just feel good movies. They did require risk, and a little bit of budget. But they weren't just obvious Oscar bait either. They were movies that had the potential to reach a broader audience with smart marketing that promised a quality product - and they delivered. In fact, from a ROI standpoint, those movies were significantly smarter than most $150million tentpoles, and several smaller budgeted Oscar baits. Because their "medium" sized budgets allow for a big return when they work. Hollywood is a copycat league, and you can't really blame them. But a smart investor would see a market that is ripe for growth, and do the hard work to snap that up.

[Chienfantome]

Some interesting choices so far. Some I won't make. I'm waiting a bit before putting mine online.

[jas8382]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I am pretty sure Mulan was delayed to 2019.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

It hasn't been yet. It's completely possible though, the last news we've had about it was the casting of Mulan in November. I don't know if they're even shooting yet.

I thought Coco wouldn't come out in 2017 last January either, I'm not making the mistake of leaving a big Disney movie off my list again.

[undeadmonkey]

one more week, right?

Mulan only started filming this month, i'm pretty sure it'll get delayed.

[Ron Burgundy]

Well, this is a pretty tough year for sure, i cant find any Get Outs or Its either. Very tempted to throw in some original idea but held off, something like Mortal Engines or Bohemian Rhapsody.

Heres what i got:

1. Avengers 3
2. Jurassic World 2
3. Solo
4. Fantastic Beasts 2
5. Deadpool 2
6. The Incredibles 2
7. Wreck It Ralph 2
8. A Wrinkle in Time
9. Dark Phoenix
10. Ready Player One
11. Alita: Battle Angel
12. Aquaman
13. The Grinch
14. Ant Man 2
15. The Nutcracker & 4 Realms
16. Mary Poppins
17. Black Panther
18. Venom
19. Bumblebee
20. Holmes & Watson

21. Hotel Transylvania 3
22. Mamma Mia 2

[numbersix]

Thanks guys, keep em coming.

CLOSING DATE IS THE 25TH.

One week to go

[Shrykespeare]

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Jurassic World: Forbidden Kingdom
3. Solo: A Star Wars Story
4. Black Panther
5. Deadpool 2
6. The Incredibles 2
7. Mulan
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald
9. Ready Player One
10. Mission: Impossible 6
11. A Wrinkle in Time
12. Ant-Man and the Wasp
13. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-it-Ralph 2
14. Hotel Transylvania: Summer Vacation
15. Dark Phoenix
16. Aquaman
17. Venom
18. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
19. Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch
20. Mary Poppins Returns

Bench: Mortal Engines
Bench: Ocean’s 8

[transformers2]

1.Avengers: Infinity War
2.Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
3.Black Panther
4.The Incredibles 2
5.Deadpool 2
6.Solo: A Star Wars Story
7.Wreck-It Ralph 2
8.Mary Poppins Returns
9.Venom
10.Fantastic Beasts
11.A Wrinkle in Time
12.Dr. Seuss' the Grinch
13.Ocean's 8
14.Ant-Man and the Wasp
15.Mission: Impossible 6
16.Hotel Transylvania 3
17.Dark Phoenix
18.Ready Player One
19.Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
20.Nutcracker

Bench: Aquaman, Mama Mia!