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Weekend Tracking (10/23)

Discuss weekly box office numbers, PTA numbers, and date changes.

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Re: Weekend Tracking (10/23)

Postby Buscemi » October 22nd, 2009, 9:59 pm

I can't see This Is It winning PTA with 3,400 screens. It will probably get $40-50 million in its three-day weekend but I expect Gentlemen Broncos to outdo it in its two theatres. Also, I noticed that the expansion will be slow with it so it looks like Fox is positioning it as another Napoleon Dynamite.
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Re: Weekend Tracking (10/23)

Postby BarcaRulz » October 23rd, 2009, 1:09 pm

Boxofficeguru has this weeks projections as follows:

Saw VI - $25m
Paranormal Activity - $22m
Where the Wild Things Are - $18m
Astroboy - $10m
Law Abiding Citizen - $9.5m
The Vampires Assistant - $7m
Amelia - $5m

Personally i'm very interested in seeing how PA does this week. If it keeps a strong PTA this thing could cross 100m by the end of its run.
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Re: Weekend Tracking (10/23)

Postby Brockster » October 23rd, 2009, 2:35 pm

WTWTA is fading fast...I see it coming in closer to the lower teens...maybe 11-12 M.
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Re: Weekend Tracking (10/23)

Postby W » October 23rd, 2009, 3:24 pm

I think Saw is a little higher. Every one from II-V has grossed between $30 and $33 M. I think this one will be the lowest, but don't think it'll drop all the way down to $25. Maybe $28...
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Re: Weekend Tracking (10/23)

Postby Brockster » October 23rd, 2009, 3:40 pm

I think Paranormal Activity has a great chance of winning the weekend. Has there ever been a time where a movie we didn't have a choice to pick was the #1 movie in the country? I've been playing since Feb of 2007 and I can't ever remember a time that has happened.
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Re: Weekend Tracking (10/23)

Postby undeadmonkey » October 23rd, 2009, 6:18 pm

Brockster wrote:I think Paranormal Activity has a great chance of winning the weekend. Has there ever been a time where a movie we didn't have a choice to pick was the #1 movie in the country? I've been playing since Feb of 2007 and I can't ever remember a time that has happened.


I think there has been, but i cant remember the movie.
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Re: Weekend Tracking (10/23)

Postby Buscemi » October 23rd, 2009, 8:11 pm

I saw Where The Wild Things Are this afternoon. Five people were in the theatre total and two walked out before it was even over. Meanwhile the strong performers looked to be Paranormal Activity, Astro Boy and Amelia.
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Re: Weekend Tracking (10/23)

Postby Geezer » October 23rd, 2009, 10:54 pm

Yeah there were like 9 people in the theater for Where the Wild Things Are for me. I am not surprised that it is fading,I don't see too many repeat viewings in this one, especially from kids, which means families, which is why films like Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs have great legs. WTWTA just doesn't have the child appeal.
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Re: Weekend Tracking (10/23)

Postby numbersix » October 24th, 2009, 9:44 am

Very surprising tracking from Deadline Hollywood Daily

1. Paranormal Activity (Par) Week 5 [1,945 Runs] $7.5M Fri, Est Wkd $21M
2. Saw VI (LG) NEW [3,036] $7M Fri, Est Wkd $18M
3. Wild Things (WB) Week 2 [3,735] $4.4M Fri (-63%), Est Wkd $13M
4. Law Abiding (Over) Week 2 [2,890] $4.2M Fri (-45%), Est Wkd $12.5M
5. Couples Retreat (Uni) Week 3 [3,074] $3.7M Fri, Est Wkd $11.5M
6. Vampire's Assistant (Relativity/Uni) NEW [2,754] $2.3M Fri, Est Wkd $6.8M
7. The Stepfather (Sony) Week 2 [2,734] $2.1M Fri, Est Wkd $6.2M
8. Astro Boy (Imagi/Summit) NEW [3,014] $2M Fri, Est Wkd $6.2M
9. Cloudy/Meatballs (Sony) Week 6 [2,741] $1.5M Fri, Est Wkd $5.5M
10. Zombieland (Sony) Week 4 [2,447] $1.3M Fri, Est Wkd $4.5M
11. Amelia (Fox Searchlight] NEW [818] $1.3M Fri, Est Wkd $4M

Saw 6 bombs! I wonder will we see an end to the franchise (and subsequently countless Paranormal Activity clones)?
WTWTA is dropping hard- guess word of mouth wasn't great.
Law Abiding Citizen is holding on stronger than I expected.
Vamp's Assistant and Astro Boy also bombed hard, harder than expected.
And Amelia is a disaster, but that shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.
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Re: Weekend Tracking (10/23)

Postby BarcaRulz » October 24th, 2009, 11:55 am

That Saw VI number is very surprising. Didn't expect that much of a drop from the previous ones. Mind you, a better (well, I haven't seen it yet but WOM seems to suggest that) horror movie is playing that has insane hype going for it, so i'm guessing that had alot to do with it.
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Re: Weekend Tracking (10/23)

Postby W » October 24th, 2009, 12:03 pm

I'm decently happy with this weekend. It means I'm practically assured the Vision Quest win since WTWTA completely died and Stepfather held extremely well considering what it is. But its going to kill all the slates I had Saw on... Maybe not, actually because it may get 4 T5 next weekend too.
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Re: Weekend Tracking (10/23)

Postby Geezer » October 24th, 2009, 12:45 pm

I'm not really shocked by that number for Saw 6. Like people have said, it was competing against the most hyped horror film in the past decade. Plus, and I don't know how many other people are like me, but, I know for me, this is the first Saw film I will not see in theaters. I was massively disappointed by Saw 5. I thought the direction the story took was stupid, something I never felt in 1-4. 2-4 weren't great by any means but they kept me entertained and coming back. Saw 5 was bad. Maybe others are feeling that way and just not going anymore, but I think PA is the big reason.

The Astro Boy number is astoundingly bad. I never had high expectations for it and didn't have it on any slates, but I thought it would certainly break 10 million and beat the Shitty Vampire's Assistant.
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Re: Weekend Tracking (10/23)

Postby Buscemi » October 24th, 2009, 1:02 pm

When I saw the late afternoon crowds for Saw VI yesterday, it reminded me of Halloween II back in August. That opened to a disappointing $16 million and had a multiplier under 2.
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Re: Weekend Tracking (10/23)

Postby undeadmonkey » October 24th, 2009, 4:24 pm

damn, i hope i dont have Saw 6 on any of my slates, screw that, i hope i dont have any of theis weekends films on my slates. i'm going to have to go check...
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Re: Weekend Tracking (10/23)

Postby Shrykespeare » October 24th, 2009, 4:40 pm

With the exception of the almost-finished August leagues, in which many people either those Saw VI or Antichrist, I can tell you that barely any of this weekend's films were chosen in the September or October leagues. There were a few more chosen in the Regulars leagues than in the Super Leagues.
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