November Box Office Predictions

[nickb1016]

The Box- The premise is intriuging and Cameron Diaz, James Marsden, and Frank Langella provide some strong star power. However, lots of date changes and direct competition from The Fourth Kind are going to limit it's potential.

17.5 OW
52.5 Total

A Christmas Carol- Where the Wild Things Are is fading fast and with the recent failure of Astroboy this has zero competition for the family market. I don't think it will open huge relative to other animated films based due it being a christmas film but it should have awesome legs. Jim Carrey is also a strong asset.

46.4 OW
189.6 Total

The Fourth Kind- I think this has some good ads, a creepy premise, and Mila Jovavich is reliable star in the right movies. But I think this is a terrible release date. I don't see a total flop but it definatley does not have breakout potential.

16.1 OW
43.7 Total

The Men Who Stare at Goats- I don't see this being the movie to end the Iraq war movie curse and I didn't find the trailer very funny. But it seems to be getting a positive response, it has strong starpower, and it's the only comedy for adults out at this point.

13.8 OW
49.8 Total

2012- The studio is hyping this movie like crazy. They wouldn't do this if they didn't think the movie would sell. That roadblock advertising move was a huge sign to this. I'm also betting that 2012 will be released in an outrageous amount of theaters probably over 4,000. The Day After Tomorrow which released earned 85.6 million over memorial day weekend, which inflation adjusts to just over 100 million and finished with 186.7 domestic(217 adjusted) and 544.3 worldwide(634.4 adjusted). People love disaster movies and this one has a stronger cast and a much more epic feel than Day After Tomorrow. 2012 also focuses much more on foreign countries like Rio, Himalayas, among others. While Day focused mainly on LA and NYC. It is also opening against no other significant wide releases, that along with strong advertising and greater international appeal this one is going to do monster buisness.

87.9 OW
295.4 Total

Pirate Radio- Seems like more of a cult classic and it will likely be overshadowed 2012. It does have some potential but it will depend on the studio push and reviews.

5.5 OW
17.8 Total

The Blind Side- Sandra Bullock proved herself in the Proposal as one of the strongest draws out there, she even helped the awful All About Steve to a decent if not mediocre performance. This one is change of pace for her but if the reviews follow I think audiences will to. Bullock's name will ensure this does at least the same buisness as Freedom Writers. It is also a nice alternative to the big movies of the season.

14.6 OW
59.9 Total

Planet 51- This doesn't seem that strong of a contender to me. Even Bolt failed to open over 30 million against Twilight and that was a much stronger film, not to mention Christmas Carol should still be holding strong.

16.4 OW
63.5 Total

New Moon- This is going to be huge. The Twilight fan base has expanded rapidly since the first film opened with 69million and finished just shy of 200 million. This is no longer a suprise hit, it is now an established franchise. This one has potenial to score the biggest opening weekend of the year, however 2012 will provide some competition for the non fans but it will be a non factor for the rabid Twilight fan base

124.5 OW
301.3 Total

Ninja Assasin- This is the default action movie for the timeframe. It should fall pretty even with Transporter 3 and Hitman.

10.5 OW
16.2 5 Day
29.9 Total

Old Dogs- I think this is going to some serious damage over the holiday. It has a great cast, wide appeal, and that Gorilla scene should do for this what the Mike Tyson scene did for the Hangover. Even 4 Christmases managed 50 million over this frame last year.

40.3 OW
61.7 5 Day
184.2 Total

The Road- Delays, bleak premise, and lots of competition should all limit the potential of this film which is just to much of a downer for the holiday season

7.5 OW
11.2 5 Day
30.1 Total

[Buscemi]

November 6th

A Christmas Carol 35/142

This is more The Polar Express than Beowulf but like with The Polar Express, it will start slow but hold on with legs.

The Box 11/25

Richard Kelly's career is dead. It died when he did Southland Tales.

The Fourth Kind 16/40

The film wants to be Paranormal Activity but it will end up like The Haunting In Connecticut.

The Men Who Stare At Goats 7/22

Against a fantasy film and two horror films, there simply will be no time for comedy.

November 13th

2012 75/160

The opening will be big but once audiences realize that it's a 165 minute mess that shouldn't have happened, it will drop quickly.

Pirate Radio 4/11

People will simply wait for the DVD (or import the movie under its original title) to see the missing 15 minutes.

November 20th

New Moon 90/235

A no-brainer.

The Blind Side 18/90

Inspirational movies work, especially around the holidays. Also, Warner Bros. has been heavily using crossover appeal for this one (adults and families).

Planet 51 12/40

Independent animation simply doesn't sell well. $40 million is me being generous, I think.

November 25th

Old Dogs 35/52/160

Wild Hogs for the family? Definitely.

Ninja Assassin 6/9/19

This long-delayed martial arts film looks to be nothing but this year's Spirit, box office wise. Though it's probably better than The Spirit, a lot of people will end up hating it.

The Road 8/12/25

Against 2012, this other end-of-the-world movie is DOA. Though some of the book's fans will see it, it will probably be more like The Mist than No Country For Old Men.

[numbersix]

The Box- is probably too high in both cases. This movie is looking at an 8 mil opening, and finishing at around 20 mil at best
A Christmas Carol- seems to be more fun as a prospect than Polar Express, but is it too early for Christmas? It could open to 40 mil and make anywhere from 120-150 total
The Fourth Kind- again too late, despite the Paranormal Activity buzz. 12 mil opening and about 25-30 cume
Men Who Stare at Goats- should have opened limited. Clooney will help, and comedy is working better this year than most years, but it won't be enough to make an impact. I agree with Boosch 7 opening, 20 or so total

2012- I think people are reacting against these kind of mindless disaster movies, after how awful Day after Tomorrow was and how people reacted to Day the Earth... Plus the running time is far too much, and there's too much coming up to give this film legs. I say 60 opening and 130 cume
Pirate Radio- The How to Lose Friends.. of this year? 4 opening and 11 cume
Fantastic Mr Fox- opening limited but could make it to 30 mil or so, if the adults want to watch something for them and the kids

The Blind Side- looks like a whole load of meh. Teens will watch New Moon, kids have Planet 51, so who will watch this? Not young men, so you've got adult women who don't like Twilight. 7 mil opening, 18 cume
Twilight: New Moon- yeah, this will kill (heehee) even though it'll probably suck (teheehee). Should beat the first film now that it's a phenonemon. 80 Mil opening 250 mil cume
Planet 51- a sub par kids animation that will get some holiday audience 15mil opening, 45 mil cume

Old Dogs- again, family cheer meets Wild Hogs 20 OW, 60 cume
Ninja Assassin- looks awful but there does seem to be a trend for throwaway actio pics performing ok 10 opening, 20 cume
The Road- mediocre reviews and Christmas spirit will kill this- 7mil opening, 16 mil cume

[Buscemi]

Thanks for reminding me about Fantastic Mr. Fox.

My prediction:

About $500,000 in limited release
$13 million opening weekend
$19 million five-day
$44 million finish

[nickb1016]

2012- I think people are reacting against these kind of mindless disaster movies, after how awful Day after Tomorrow was and how people reacted to Day the Earth... Plus the running time is far too much, and there's too much coming up to give this film legs. I say 60 opening and 130 cume

im not really sure there is evidence to support saying that people are reacting against these kinds of movies. The hasnt been a movie approaching the same scale as 2012 since the Day After Tomorrow, and that movie was a hit. If anything I think people have shown a liking for mindless movies after the success of Paul Blart, Taken, Fast and Furious, and Transformers 2. If it does top out at 130million there is going to be some people looking for new jobs given that 2012 carries a production cost of 260 million

[silversurfer19]

Surely 10,000 BC was one of those types of movie. That didn't reach blockbuster. Not saying it will perform to that level, but maybe people are finally getting sick of Emmerich's movies?

And remember $130m takings is domestic, what about worldwide and dvd sales. I think it'd still make a profit on $260m.

[Buscemi]

Unless you've got former Paramount bookkeepers on the job (they used to say that Forrest Gump and Fatal Attraction lost money despite numbers that claimed otherwise).

[nickb1016]

Im sure that it will end up being profitable no matter what but 260 million is a massive production budget for any movie. that doesnt even include advertising and distribution expense. with the roadblock advertising and the global launch i think that 130 million domestic would be a worst case scenario for the studio.

10,000 BC is also a weak comparison for this movie. Ok same director but that is really where the similarities end.

[Geezer]

All I know is, everyone I know that has seen the 2012 trailer has had this reaction: "Wow, that looks absolutely terrible. Was that the same guy who made Day After Tomorrow? Oh well then of course its going to suck"

I'm not putting any stock in it.

[DylanG]

The Box- This ones going to bomb big-time. Middling reviews are already pouring in. The trailer looked rather lame. Cameran Diaz isn't a big box office draw. Word of mouth will be terrible and The Fourth Kind is direct competition. I really believe this might end Richard Kelly's career.

8.5M OW
20M Total

A Christmas Carol- I don't believe this will do amazing. The Christmas Carol has been overdone. Jim Carrey isn't a huge draw anymore either. Nonetheless, most childrens animated films do decent money and I think this will find ground somewhere between The Polar Express and Beowulf.

55.6M OW
184.5M Total

The Fourth Kind- The ads have been decent, but the mix of "real" footage and staged seems a tad silly. The Box is some minor competition. I believe word of mouth will be okay, so while it won't open too big it may pull in some decent money.

13.4M OW
38.2M Total

The Men Who Stare at Goats- The ads are pretty funny and the campaign has been relatively good. There's been tons of TV ads and posters plastered around my city. Clooney isn't a box office draw, but yes, it does seem to be getting a fairly positive response. Reviews have been good. As far as I know, this takes place before the Iraq War and hence, that shouldn't be a factor.

20.4M OW
55.4M Total

Precious - People seem to be forgetting this one. It won the TIFF Audience Award this year. Slumdog Millionaire won last year. Juno was the runner-up the year before. I'm not expecting this to match those movie's numbers as the content is much less accessible and Lionsgate is distributing, but with Oprah and Tyler Perry backing this movie, it could definitely reach $50M at least. Or it could top out around $10M. It's a tough one to call, but shouldn't be ignored.

0.5M OW (limited release)
40.5M Total

Fantastic Mr. Fox - This, if it gets anything more than a limited release, won't surpass at the very most $30M. Stop-motion doesn't have the same appeal that CG animation has. The animating style is very crude, something that may appeal to stop-motion fans (such as myself), but I can't see audiences flocking to something of this nature. The trailers weren't too funny either.

0.08M OW
4.9M Total in Limited Release OR 18.5M Total in Wide Release

2012- This isn't going to do nearly as good as anyone is expecting. I do believe people are getting sick of Roland Emmirich's movies. The ad campaign has been non-stop and very aggressive, but it really isn't offering much more than endless CGI disaster spectacles. I realize that's all the movie is, but even Transformers 2 offered some semblance of a story in it's trailers.

68.9M OW
189.4M Total

Planet 51- Pretty much agree with the original assessment. The opening weekend seems dead-on, the total should be a little lower.

16.4M OW
51.5M Total

New Moon- The Twilight fanbase has expanded, but it hasn't exceeded the Harry Potter fanbase yet. As well, it's lacking the good reviews, decent trailers and word-of-mouth that draw in adults to the Potter series. This book isn't nearly as popular as Twilight either, but the overall overexposure of this series since Twilights release should propel it past Twilights take last year. This is mainly going to be driven by teenage girls, some who will see this two or three times, so it has little chance of breaking $300M.

88.9M OW
214.7M Total

Ninja Assasin- Haven't heard much about this. Trailers were lackluster and it certainly won't exceed Transporter 3 or Hitman's take.

9.4M OW
26.9M Total

Old Dogs- Wild Dogs was a huge hit and this has the same director/main star/marketing campaign. Seems like it will do similarly, except this one has the benefit of Thanksgiving.

58.9M OW
184.2M Total

[W]

Last year Slumdog opened the week after Precious will open this year. It didn't go wide until the next to last weekend of January at the end of January (counting Feb 1) it made $67 M. I don't think Precious will be mainstream enough to do that, and that's all that really matter game-wise.

[Buscemi]

You do remember that Coraline did $75 million back in February? That was stop-motion animation.

Also, I can't see Planet 51 doing well at all. First of all, independently-made animation usually flops.

Second, here's a list of all of the sci-fi oriented animated features that have opened since the success of Pixar's Wall-E.

Space Chimps (independent)
Star Wars: The Clone Wars (Lucasfilm)
Fly Me To The Moon (independent)
Monsters vs. Aliens (DreamWorks)
Battle For Terra (independent)
Astro Boy (independent)

Out of these films, only Monsters vs. Aliens did well at the box office. The rest either failed or failed miserably (especially in the case of Astro Boy, in which the animation studio went bankrupt during production and the film opened to just $7 million on a $60 million budget). In short, Planet 51 will be very lucky to meet the predictions that you guys are throwing out.

[Buscemi]

Last year Slumdog opened the week after Precious will open this year. It didn't go wide until the next to last weekend of January at the end of January (counting Feb 1) it made $67 M. I don't think Precious will be mainstream enough to do that, and that's all that really matter game-wise.

Meanwhile, I still do not see an opening weekend theatre estimate on Precious. Either this means that the film will get 10 theatres (similar to Slumdog) or they will dump it into 250 theatres (like Lionsgate did with Chris Rock's Good Hair).

[Donte77]

I would hope that they would give precious a good scaled expansion. They simply have to look at previous successful limited releases like Gran Torino, Slumdog and There Will Be Blood. It works money wise and lets the word of mouth build for the eventual wide release.

[W]

Yeah, there's no way they'll dump a film that's got this much Oscar buzz already.