Weekend Tracking 10/30

[J.I.]

7.4 Mil on a wednesday is disappointing?! Movie always make more on the weekends than a wednesday opening unless it is a fan boy thing like Star Wars or Spiderman. And for a concert movie to break 40 Mil in a weekend... It will win the weekend and gain a huge BO.
Also remember that this movie is opening worldwide and if they barely break 100 mil domestic they are still going to make another 400 worldwide. They paid 50 Mil for the footage and rights so they will make tons of money on this.

But its not going to have a $40 million weekend and its not going to break $100 million domestic. And if you think about it, it didn't do too much better than Earth or 9 did on thier opening Wednesdays, especially considering this counted Tuesday 9PM-midnight shows.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Donte, you think This Is It will get $500M worldwide???

[BarcaRulz]

FRIDAY PM: This is a tough weekend to figure the drops as Hollywood hasn't had a Halloween fall on a Saturday since 1998. Here are first figures from my sources. As you can see, Michael Jackson's This Is It didn't fare much better than its Wednesday opening. (See my previous Disappointing $20.1M Global Bow; Predictions For Just $20+M Domestic Weekend, $-50M Five-Day.) MORE

1. This Is It (Sony) New $7.5M Fri [3,481 runs] $20M Wkd 5-day $31.5M
2. Paranormal Activity (Paramount) Week 6 $6M Fri [2,404] $16M Wkd
3. Couples Retreat (Universal) Week 5 $2.4M Fri [3,026] $6.8M Wkd
4. Law Abiding Citizen (Overture) Week 4 $2.4M Fri [2,764] $6.6M Wkd
5. Saw VI (Lionsgate) $1.9M Fri (-73%), $5M Wkd

http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/hallo ... ds-for-6m/

[Shrykespeare]

Steve Mason:

MICHAEL JACKSON'S THIS IS IT! with a disappointing $8M Friday & a likely $33.2M by Monday, unable to unseat HANNAH MONTANA for All-Time #1 Concert Movie Opening; PARANORMAL ACTIVITY successfully keeps scaring!

Michael Jackson's This Is It (Sony) will win Halloween weekend, but it is certainly not the posthumous blockbuster that the Jackson estate had anticipated. After generating about $11.2M from Tuesday midnight through Thursday, the movie surged to a decent $8M on Friday, but the first few days have taken a lot of steam out of the movie. Culled together from rehearsals for MJ's scheduled concerts at London's O2, This Is It! has received solid reviews, but the 5-day domestic cume will be a disappointing $33.2M by Monday morning.

The 3-day gross of an estimated $22M will make the Michael Jackson epic only the #2 opening ever for a concert film, finishing well behind Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour (Disney), which seized $31.1M in its first 3 days in theatres in February of 2008.

The box office sensation Paranormal Activity (Paramount) continued its staggering run to start the weekend with a strong $5.9M, and my sources tell me that about $15.3M is likely in the cards for the weekend. Made for just $15,000 and acquired by Paramount for $300,000, Paranormal will reach a domestic cume of $83.5M by Sunday night virtually guaranteeing $100M+ for the geniuses in distribution and marketing over on Melrose.


EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON FRIDAY & 3-DAY ESTIMATES FOR OCTOBER 30-NOVEMBER 1
1. NEW - Michael Jackson's This Is It (Sony) - $8M Fri - $22M 3-day - $33.2M 5-day cume
2. Paranormal Activity (Paramount) - $5.9M Fri - $15.3M 3-day - $83.5M cume
3. Law Abiding Citizen (Overture) - $2.4M Fri - $6.9M 3-day - $51M cume
4. Couples Retreat (Universal) - $2.4M Fri - $6.7M 3-day - $87.2M cume
5. Where the Wild Things Are (Warner Bros) - $2.2M Fri - $6.5M 3-day - $63.2M cume
6. Saw VI (Lionsgate) - $2M Fri - $5.1M 3-day - $22.3M cume

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Paranormal Activity is giving This Is It a run for its money (or in this case, the number #1 spot).

It might even beat it flat out.

(Beat It. Heh.)

[transformers2]

Boondock Saints 2 actually put some pretty good numbers this weekend. It did 475,000 in 65 Theaters.

[Shrykespeare]

BOM's Sunday Estimates:

Top 5

5 points - MJ This Is It - $21.3M ($32.5 5-day)
(Paranormal Activity - $16.5M)
4 points - Law Abiding Citizen - $7.3M
3 points - Couples Retreat - $6.1M
2 points - Saw VI - $5.6M
1 point - Where the Wild Things Are - $5.1M


PTA

5 points - An Education
4 points - Boondock Saints 2: All Saints Day
3 points - Michael Jackson This is It
2 points - Gentlemen Broncos
1 point - A Serious Man

So Citizen and Retreat continue to hold, while Saw and Wild Things drop like stones. MJ will hold on for one more week, and since Paranormal Activity doesn't count, that means the Top 5 is wide open next week for all the new films.

[Buscemi]

Meanwhile in PTA, Gentlemen Broncos flops because Fox forgot to promote it. Looks like Fox misplaced the ad money when Jennifer's Body flopped.

[Shrykespeare]

Not only that but that is NINETEEN PTA points for An Education. Yikes.

This unexpective PTA gold mine might be enough to effect a tie with NSpan in the "Transformers" league. We'll know tomorrow.

[Buscemi]

It probably helps that Sony has slowly expanded it. Because had they expanded it quickly, then it would be gone by now.

[Geezer]

I knew Boondock Saints was going to hit that PTA chart!

[transformers2]

Meanwhile in PTA, Gentlemen Broncos flops because Fox forgot to promote it. Looks like Fox misplaced the ad money when Jennifer's Body flopped.

Maybe the 2 Theaters and Neagative Reviews also factored in to the flop? I dont really think it was the lack of advertising.

[Buscemi]

13%. Ouch. It sounds like this film may kill Jared Hess's career in the same way that The Mysteries Of Pittsburgh killed the director of Dodgeball's career. But then again, he may resurface like Jon Heder has lately (in an online series and a terrible looking Kristen Bell movie).

Also, how did The House Of The Devil get a 86% on Rotten Tomatoes? Wasn't the director of this (Ti West, which is honestly one of the worst director names ever) the same guy who did the unreleaseable Cabin Fever 2 (which has a 1.5 rating on IMDb)?

[Donte77]

Donte, you think This Is It will get $500M worldwide???

At the time I thought so. Now with the numbers it appears I am wrong. 65 Worldwide and 32 Domestic. Still respectable but not a giant. It appears the King is not the king of movies, just music.