Inception

[Ron Burgundy]

Ok, we're getting close to the grand release of Inception, how do you think it will go??

I think it will be in the imdb top 250 straight away, probably finish with an 8.3 more or less.

220Mil at the Box Office, with a 65 Mil Opening Weekend

around 17 Top 5 points and 10 PTA points


How can Nolan fail here? The previews are everywhere, and they look great. Its got a stellar cast. And an original idea. The only thing im worried about is the Word of Mouth for the general public, some may think its a but too much out there. But hey wasn't Avatar a bit 'out there'?

[numbersix]

Considering the word of mouth, intriguing marketing campaign, and stellar reviews, I think this could be big. Real big. I could see it opening to 80 MIL OW and finishing anywhere from 250 to 300. In a summer of tired sequels and predictable tentpoles Inception might just blow everything away. I initially was cautious about this, as I thought about The Prestige only faring moderately, but as the weeks approach and the buzz increases, this is going to really do well. IMDB will be very high, in the high 8's, and then drop down a little but it'll probably remain in the Top 250 by the end of the summer. 19 Top 5 points and about 12 PTA points are in order for this one. Needless to say it's on every one of my slates

[Buscemi]

$50 million opening and a $165 million finish with 18 Top 5 points and 7 PTA points. The IMDb rating will be at 8.5 (fanboys will keep it high).

It will be big but not that big.

By weekend:

July 16th
1. Inception
2. Despicable Me
3. The Sorcerer's Apprentice
4. Toy Story 3
5. Eclipse

July 23rd
1. Salt
2. Inception
3. Despicable Me
4. The Sorcerer's Apprentice
5. Toy Story 3
-- Ramona and Beezus (has anyone even seen a trailer for this?)

July 30th
1. Inception
2. Salt
3. Dinner For Schmucks
4. Cats and Dogs 2
5. Charlie St. Cloud

August 6th
1. The Other Guys
2. Step Up 3-D
3. Inception
4. Salt
5. Dinner For Schmucks
-- Flipped (terrible date for this and I haven't seen a trailer)
-- Middle Men (don't know if this is limited or wide)

August 13th
1. The Expendables
2. Eat, Pray, Love
3. The Other Guys
4. Step Up 3-D
5. Inception
-- Scott Pilgrim vs. The World (The Spirit as a comedy)

[thswrestler160]

well buscemi either it is going to have to open higher than 50 or finish higher than a 3.3 multiplier if you think it is going to beat dinner in its third week.
how is 18 top 5 7 pta and an 8.5 rating not that big? even if it only made $1 that would still easily make it an amazing pick and pretty big at least as far as this game goes.

also on a side note; the scott pilgrim trailer has been getting excellent reactions I dont see any reason why it would open to 6 mil like spirit probably closer to kick ass numbers.

[Buscemi]

Scott Pilgrim is opening up against The Expendables and Eat, Pray, Love. Both of those movies look like surefire hits. Also, the sole hype on Scott Pilgrim is Internet fanboys and Hollywood hype. The average person won't want to see a campy looking Spirit-lookalike based on an obscure Canadian graphic novel. Also it's clear that Edgar Wright only made the film for the money (like Coppola did with Dracula and Kevin Smith did with Cop Out). The film has disaster written all over it.

As for July 30th, none of the movies opening look like hits. Dinner For Schmucks has been getting awful trailer reaction (does Paramount really think a trailer with Steve Carell and Zach G "shooting" at each other will bring in an audience?), Cats and Dogs 2 has nothing going for it other than 3-D and Charlie St. Cloud is a non-starter (see Remember Me's box office).

[numbersix]

Agreed about Scott Pilgrim, it's video-game style will alienate a hell of a lot of people. I may do better than The Spirit but I don't see it even doing Kick-Ass numbers. I don't think Edgar Wright did it for the money though, films like that tend to be somewhat uninspiring in terms of style, whereas Scott Pilgrim looks like it has Wright written all over it. But it could be a bit of a financial failure.

Where's your evidence that Dinner for Schmucks has been getting awful trailer reaction? I can't see it being disliked any more than Grown Ups. Not that I think it'll beat grown-ups, but it'll be the first comedy since then, and it could do reasonable numbers, maybe around the same mark as Get Him to the Greek.

The latest tracking has Inception opening in the low 70's, but that doesn't mean much as tracking can be inaccurate. Next week might have more accurate figures.

[Buscemi]

The trailer reaction to Dinner With Schmucks has been very negative online, with people not really knowing what's supposed to be funny. Also, the latest trailer that I saw before Grown Ups got no reaction whatsoever from the audience (even my mother, who likes this type of movie, thinks it looks bad).

Also Dinner With Schmucks has The Other Guys a week later. I think audiences are going to be more interested in a Will Ferrell/Adam McKay pairing (their first three pairings were hits) rather than Steve Carell playing annoying and Paul Rudd playing the same role he always plays.

[silversurfer19]

That's where I get a little confused with your predictions Boussh. You mention time and time again the fanboy effect, that of the internet movie fan, and how their appreciation of a movie is not to be taken too seriously as the real world won't support it in that way and so the movie will flop. Then you say things like this, that the fanboy effect is going to negatively effect a film, and that real world audiences won't like it because fanboy's won't like it. Make your mind up. Are fanboys a good gauge of a movie's success or not? And also, I've seen great reactions in my cinema's from the trailer, so maybe it's just your cinema? All I'm saying is, this movie probably won't be great, but many of your reasons for why it may bomb are a little unfounded, so let's wait and see. And I'd stick money on a hot streak Paul Rudd right now to do at least ok at the BO.

[Buscemi]

I often use two types of online reaction. There is the fanboy reaction and average person/observer reaction. You can tell which is a fanboy and which is an observer/average person by the language they speak or the approach that they are trying to get across.

Also, I'm convinced Paul Rudd's streak is nearing an end. There is seriously no likeability to him as he always plays the same unlikeable jerk in every movie he's in. I'm thinking audiences are getting tired of his one-dimensional acting style.

[numbersix]

So you're relying on personal obsevration? I can see how that can give you some idea but it really doesn't represent a huge amount of the public. It's a hell of a gamble to make prediction based on personal observation, man.

[Buscemi]

So far, I've seen trailers before three or four movies. None of the reaction has been good. You may be right about this being a gamble but I have yet to see or hear any good reaction from the trailers.

[thswrestler160]

just about every reaction i have seen has been positive also it was named most anticipated movie of the year at the guys choice awards. Just about every customer that comes into my theater looks at the poster and says to their friend "ooh I really wanna see that".

[jas8382]

I see Inception being huge esp. with the back half of July and August being lite on big event blockbusters. Don't get me wrong there are some movies that will do well, but nothing with the breakout potential of Inception. As for Dinner for Schmucks I think the movie will do well, but Buscemi's point about The Other Guys coming out a week later seems pretty valid esp. since they seem to be going after the same audience.

[undeadmonkey]

I think Inception will do well, not as huge as some people are suggesting, but well enough. I also think that Salt will hold it's own against the move as well

[Brockster]

Buscemi wrote:

So far, I've seen trailers before three or four movies. None of the reaction has been good.

Letters to Juliet, Sex and the City, and the Last Song aren't very good references.




I kid! I kid!