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June 4th Weekend

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June 4th Weekend

Postby Brockster » June 4th, 2010, 6:35 pm

Understandably the predictions for this weekend are all over the place. Here's what I could find:

Shryke's predictions:

1. Marmaduke - $31 million
2. Shrek Forever After - $25 million
3. Killers - $16 million
4. Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time - $16 million
5. Get Him to the Greek - $15 millon
6. Sex and the City 2 - $13 million
7. Splice - $12 million
8. Iron Man 2 - $10 million


Lee's Movie Info predictions:

1. Shrek - 24 Million
2. Get Him to the Greek - 16M
3. Prince of Persia - 15M
4. Sex and the City 2 - 14M
5. Killers - 12M
6. Splice - 10M
7. Marmaduke - 9M
8. Iron Man 2 - 8M

Box Office Guru predictions:

1. Shrek - 24M
2. Get Him to the Greek - 20M
3. Killers - 18M
4. Marmaduke - 14M
5. Prince of Persia - 13.5M
6. Sex and the City - 12.5M
7. Splice - 12M
8. Iron Man 2 - 9M

I know Alvin and the Chipmunks, Beverly Hills Chihuahua and G-Force did well, but I just can't see Marmaduke pulling in a win this weekend. It looks terrible, worse than the other 3 movies, which I didn't think would be possible, yet I cringe every time the trailer comes on. Get Him to the Greek looks hilarious and Splice looks pretty good too. Overall, pretty boring weekend though.

Also of notice, not sure if anyone has mentioned this, but How To Train Your Dragon has passed Kung Fu Panda...never thought that would happen after it's opening weekend. Turned out to be a must have on your slates.

Anyway, should be an interesting weekend.

Later!
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Re: June 4th Weekend

Postby Buscemi » June 4th, 2010, 7:16 pm

Nothing can be worse than Beverly Hills Chihuahua. Not only did it look like crap but it was also insulting towards people of Hispanic/Latin descent.
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Re: June 4th Weekend

Postby Buscemi » June 5th, 2010, 12:32 am

Rentrak suffered a hardware failure so Friday estimates won't be ready until later on Saturday morning or afternoon. Meanwhile, here is a Deadline article of Splice's long, bumpy road to release (it leaves a few things out such as its history at Senator but it's a good read).

http://www.deadline.com/2010/06/the-life-of-splice-the-unlikeliest-major-studio-summer-release
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Re: June 4th Weekend

Postby Buscemi » June 5th, 2010, 5:02 am

So, Shrek will coast to Number 1 while no opener manages over $20 million. Marmaduke is a disaster with only a $3.5 million opening day (I guess it pays to actually advertise and tell people what it's about) while Killers proves audiences have no taste at all. Meanwhile, Splice manages a D on Cinemascore despite having a 72% on Rotten Tomatoes (but then again this always seems to happen when critics like a horror film, Wolf Creek got an F on Cinemascore despite being highly acclaimed internationally).

From Deadline:

1. Shrek Forever After 3D (DWA/Par) Week 3 [4,386 Theaters]
Friday $7M, Estimated Weekend $25M, Estimated Cume $183.5M
2. Get Him To The Greek (Universal) NEW [2,697]
Friday $6M, Estimated Weekend $17M
3. Killers (Lionsgate) NEW [2,859]
Friday $5.7M, Estimated Weekend $15.5M
4. Prince of Persia (Disney) Week 2 [3,646]
Friday $4.4M (-57%), Estimated Weekend $15.2M, Estimated Cume $61M
5. Sex And The City 2 (NL/Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,445]
Friday $4.5M (-65%), Estimated Weekend $14M, Estimated Cume $74.3M
6. Marmaduke (Fox) NEW [3,213]
Friday $3.5M, Estimated Weekend $11M
7. Iron Man 2 (Marvel/Paramount) Week 5 [3,007]
Friday $2.4M, Estimated Weekend $8M, Estimated Cume $292M
8. Splice (Dark Castle/WB) NEW [2,450]
Friday $2.5M, Estimated Weekend $7M
9. Robin Hood (Universal) Week 4 [2,599]
Friday $1.6M, Estimated Weekend $4.5M, Estimated Cume $94.6M
10. Letters To Juliet (Summit) Week 4 [1,962]
Friday $1.0M, Estimated Weekend $3M, Estimated Cume $43.5M
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Re: June 4th Weekend

Postby transformers2 » June 5th, 2010, 10:07 am

Wolf Creek is one of the saddest excuses for a horror film in recent memory. I completely agree with Cinemascore on that one. Not really too surprised about these numbers. I expected Killers and Marmaduke to do a little bit better but besides about what I had anticipated.
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Re: June 4th Weekend

Postby Shrykespeare » June 5th, 2010, 11:49 am

Wow, so Maramaduke may not even finish Top 5? Looks like my streak is coming to an end... but like I said in my column, this whole weekend was a crap-shoot anyway.
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Re: June 4th Weekend

Postby J.I. » June 5th, 2010, 4:04 pm

Marmaduke's tracking numbers were absolutely terrible though, so it could have done worse. I had all the openers making a few million more than they did, so this weekend continues the disappointing box office streak. Next weekend could have some break-outs.
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Re: June 4th Weekend

Postby silversurfer19 » June 5th, 2010, 4:39 pm

Wow, glad I dropped everything from this weekend from my slates, looks like another washout. I may have to pin all my hopes on either Twilight or Toy Story if I'm gonna make any money in this game.
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Re: June 4th Weekend

Postby W » June 5th, 2010, 4:59 pm

I may (or may not) have taken Splice. Hopefully it does the complete opposite of practically every horror film ever and has some nice drops.
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Re: June 4th Weekend

Postby Buscemi » June 5th, 2010, 5:08 pm

I see Splice performing like Orphan (both films were under the Dark Castle label) and managing a multiplier over three (rare for horror). The film (Splice)'s main audience is DVD as with most critically-acclaimed horror (examples such as Slither).
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Re: June 4th Weekend

Postby Buscemi » June 5th, 2010, 5:18 pm

transformers2 wrote:Wolf Creek is one of the saddest excuses for a horror film in recent memory. I completely agree with Cinemascore on that one. Not really too surprised about these numbers. I expected Killers and Marmaduke to do a little bit better but besides about what I had anticipated.


You don't know sad excuse for horror until you've watched the films of Ulli Lommel or sat through an entire After Dark's Horrorfest (though some of them have been good*, most of them suck). Also, Wolf Creek was one of the better horror films of the decade and even my mother (who hates most horror films) liked it.



*- Examples of good After Dark's Horrorfest titles: Reincarnation, Mulberry Street, Dying Breed
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Re: June 4th Weekend

Postby transformers2 » June 5th, 2010, 5:32 pm

I thought Wolf Creek was a complete shitfest. I found it to be boring,unintentionally hillarious and cheesy. On another note Orphan was crtically accliamed?
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Re: June 4th Weekend

Postby Buscemi » June 5th, 2010, 5:36 pm

I didn't say Orphan was acclaimed, I just said it had good legs. I was referring to Splice when I said critically-acclaimed.
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Re: June 4th Weekend

Postby Shrykespeare » June 5th, 2010, 6:17 pm

BOM Friday Estimates:

1. Shrek Forever After, $6.5M
2. Get Him to the Greek, $6.22M
3. Killers, $5.7M
4. Sex and the City 2, $4.4M
5. Prince of Persia, $4.075M
6. Marmaduke, $3.4M
7. Splice, $2.705M
8. Iron Man 2, $2.15M
9. Robin Hood, $1.455M
10. Letters to Juliet, $970K

So it looks like I'll be off on Splice and way off on Marmaduke... but everything else will be fairly close to my estimates.

Next week, Karate Kid will be in about 3,500 theaters and The A-Team will be in just over 3,000. Shrek, SatC and PoP should start losing theaters starting next week, and the question now is... will either these titles find room to succeed?
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Re: June 4th Weekend

Postby transformers2 » June 6th, 2010, 9:58 am

Buscemi wrote:I didn't say Orphan was acclaimed, I just said it had good legs. I was referring to Splice when I said critically-acclaimed.


Gotcha I was kind of confused by your wording.
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