ReelSociety Forums

With the disappointing Shrek 4 and the disastrous Macgruber it seems there is a long trend this year of movies not meeting their expectations. Alice in Wonderland is the obvious exception. But after that weekend movies seemed to be hard pressed to debut at or beyond expectations.

3/12 Green Zone fell well short of its expectations and Remember Me failed to capitalize on Twilight fever.

3/26 How to Train Your Dragon and Hot Tub Time Machine both failed to post breakout numbers in their openings, although both showed good legs

4/2 Clash of the Titans did well but still fell short of some projections that had it in the same league as 300

4/9 Date Night opened much lower then expected, but did go on to show strong legs

4/16 Death at a Funeral and Kick Ass fell well short of their expectations

4/23 The Losers, The Back Up Plan, and Oceans all opened weaker then comparable title in their genres

4/30 Nightmare on Elm St debuted lower than anticipated and Furry Vengeance failed to meet its already lowered expectations.

5/7 Iron Man 2 opened strong but was still way below it's predicted record breaking numbers

5/14 Letters to Juliet opened on the lower end of its expectations

5/20 Shrek 3 is now set to open a full 30 million below expectations and Macgruber's final gross won't even match it's anticipated opening weekend

Since Alice stormed theaters only She's Out of My League, The Bounty Hunter, The Last Song, Just Wright and Robin Hood have debuted in line with their tracking estimates.

And it seems that only Why Did I Get Married Too and Diary of a Wimpy Kid are the only titles to really debut way past their expected grosses

So what does it all mean? Why are so many films falling below expectations? Are they really failing or are our expectations just too high?

I think it's a combination of mostly having way too high of expectations and the quality shown on-screen. Movies like Avatar and The Dark Knight have caused us to expect way too much.

Also, it didn't help that movies were constantly being shuffled or not being handled correctly (such as Kick-Ass opening two weeks after its international start).

the expectations are just too high. 2010 is already 6% higher compared to last year at this time.

First of all, 2010 had the biggest January, March, and April of all time. That's not disappointing.

Avatar killed all of the other movies at the beginning of the year. But there's nothing wrong with December holdovers dominating January. February was a strong month with Valentines Day, Shutter Island, Percy Jackson, and Dear John. March was huge with Alice in Wonderland and How to Train Your Dragon (which is in no way a disappointment, it's already well over Monsters vs. Aliens from last year). Clash did not disappoint either. It had the second biggest April opening ever.

But what happened was that we had so many big movies before the summer that the summer movies so far (especially Iron Man 2) didn't feel like event films anymore. And Shrek 4 disappointed because of franchise fatigue, bad reception of the last one, and no clear reason established by the marketing to see this one.

Don't forget the confusing title (the on-screen title is Shrek Forever After but the ads called it Shrek: The Final Chapter).

I am not saying all of the movies above are disappointments, not at all. Many forecasts that I read had anticipated Clash opening higher than it did which is why it is on that list. How to Train Your Dragon is a hit, but it was not viewed as one over opening weekend. This is in reference to actual opening weekends versus their tracking for opening weekend. I am not talking about legs, overall gross, or its all time opening rankings. Just how it preformed relative to expectations.

Buscemi wrote:Don't forget the confusing title (the on-screen title is Shrek Forever After but the ads called it Shrek: The Final Chapter).

I see how that could be confusing. You're planning on seeing Shrek and all you're getting is... Shrek.

As long as the name is in the title, no one will notice/care.

To be honest I think most of those movies have performed relative to their expectations, well in so far as during their entire run. Yes, many of those movies' opening weekend's were not as strong as predicted, but their overall grosses seem to be pretty close to expectations. Maybe audiences just aren't going to see a movie opening weekend, but are perhaps waiting a couple of weeks (possibly cheaper tickets considering the economic climate? - I know I do that)?

I concur with SS, but who really expected Shrek 4 to make more than 100 even 90 mil in its OW? People should have noticed the trend of those films getting worse, but in saying that, i was really hoping for a comeback romp. Is this the end of Murphy and Myers?

Probably the end of Murphy but not Myers.

We'll have to see what happens when/after Austin Powers 4 comes out. He'll have a chance at a comeback there... And he can always do a third Wayne's World. And I would never completely write off Eddie Murphy just because there are at least five or six films I'd rush out to see on opening weekend if he made them: BHC IV, The Life and Times of Buh-weet, Mr. Robinson's Hood, Gumby Damnit!, Velvet Jones, or anything resembling Trading Places or Coming to America. If he got away from the kids stuff, it would be for the best.

With that said, in the foreseeable future... Nothing.

Not helping Eddie's case: one of his forthcoming movies (A Thousand Words) has been on the shelf for almost two years due to poor test screenings.

Eddie is planning to start doing stand up again within the next year. Maybe that will help rediscover what made him comic gold in the first place. That and hopefully his kids grow up soon so he doesn't have to do movies which pander to them....