ReelSociety Forums


Your home for all Reel and Real discussions.

1/15 Weekend Tracking

Discuss weekly box office numbers, PTA numbers, and date changes.

Moderators: Buscemi, BarcaRulz, Geezer, W

1/15 Weekend Tracking

Postby W » January 16th, 2010, 3:28 pm

Deadline is reporting that Eli dethroned Avatar, but only for a day.

1. Avatar $10.4/high 40's-low $50's
2. Book of Eli $11.7/35
3. The Lovely Bones $5.7/mid-20's
4. Alvin $2.6/15
5. Holmes $2.9/12
6. Spy $2.3/12
7. It's Complicated $2.4/10
8. Leap Year $1.9/7
9. Blind Side $1.6/7
10. Up in the Air $1.5/6.5

The Blind Side should be close to $230 M after this 4-day. Right now its #8 for the year and it may pass Star Trek for 7th if it gets good holds. It probably will be $10 or $15 M short. It has completely destroyed every other sports film ever made...

Oh, and Avatar may break $500 M by the end of the 4-day. It might beat Titanic... by the end of the month!
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
User avatar
W
Jack Torrance
 
Posts: 6593
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 4:37 pm

Advertisement

 

Re: 1/15 Weekend Tracking

Postby numbersix » January 16th, 2010, 3:32 pm

Avatar certainly looks poised to beat Titanic's $1.8 billion worldwide records, standing today at over $1.4 billion.

Look at how badly Daybreakers and Youth in Revolt dropped!
User avatar
numbersix
The Dude
 
Posts: 9622
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: 1/15 Weekend Tracking

Postby undeadmonkey » January 16th, 2010, 3:46 pm

It definitely looks like Avatar will beat Titanic. Although you do have to consider the higher 3D ticket prices which helped it. Lovely Bones is doing better than expected, actually it didnt really do that bad in limited release, it just hasn't had the best reviews.
User avatar
undeadmonkey
Tony Stark/ Iron Man
 
Posts: 4060
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 1:39 pm

Re: 1/15 Weekend Tracking

Postby Buscemi » January 16th, 2010, 3:58 pm

I may see The Lovely Bones in the next couple of weeks with a friend (she wants to see a movie with me and The Lovely Bones is her favorite book). It's doing well now due to the popularity of the book but will most likely drop quickly.

Meanwhile, the big surprise this week to me is The Spy Next Door flopping. This makes way for Tooth Fairy to do well next week.
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

Spotify: http://open.spotify.com/user/1244530511/playlist/6exMMnE4Kpu99GBj16VEmr
User avatar
Buscemi
CONGRATS! You may now chose your own rank!
 
Posts: 16164
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 11:14 am
Location: Baltimore State Hospital for the Criminally Insane

Re: 1/15 Weekend Tracking

Postby J.I. » January 16th, 2010, 6:55 pm

undeadmonkey wrote:It definitely looks like Avatar will beat Titanic. Although you do have to consider the higher 3D ticket prices which helped it.
Yeah but then again Titanic is only at #1 because the ticket prices were much higher in 1997 than when a few other movies like Gone with the Wind and Star Wars opened.

The Lovely Bones to me is the surprise of the weekend, and I like the strong opening for The Book of Eli. Horrible for Daybreakers and Youth in Revolt.

And this weekend Avatar will be the first movie to be #1 for 5 weeks in a row since The Sixth Sense in 1999, break the 5th weekend record, surpass Star Wars to be the 3rd biggest movie of all time, catch up with The Dark Knight day-to-date, and break the $1.5 billion mark worldwide.
J.I.
The McMannus Brothers
 
Posts: 105
Joined: October 26th, 2009, 6:19 pm

Re: 1/15 Weekend Tracking

Postby undeadmonkey » January 16th, 2010, 7:51 pm

J.I. wrote:
undeadmonkey wrote:It definitely looks like Avatar will beat Titanic. Although you do have to consider the higher 3D ticket prices which helped it.
Yeah but then again Titanic is only at #1 because the ticket prices were much higher in 1997 than when a few other movies like Gone with the Wind and Star Wars opened.


very true, i just mentioned titanic instead of the other ones because that's what its being compared to, not star wars or gone with the wind.
User avatar
undeadmonkey
Tony Stark/ Iron Man
 
Posts: 4060
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 1:39 pm

Re: 1/15 Weekend Tracking

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » January 17th, 2010, 4:29 am

Buscemi wrote:I may see The Lovely Bones in the next couple of weeks with a friend (she wants to see a movie with me and The Lovely Bones is her favorite book). It's doing well now due to the popularity of the book but will most likely drop quickly.

Meanwhile, the big surprise this week to me is The Spy Next Door flopping. This makes way for Tooth Fairy to do well next week.


Totally agree about The Lovely Bones.

But a release date doesn't make a movie. Spy Next Door was always going to flop, regardless of when it came out.
Alexandra Daddario: Eyes of a Demon, Face of My Future Ex-Wife
User avatar
BanksIsDaFuture
Alex
 
Posts: 5994
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 4:09 pm

Re: 1/15 Weekend Tracking

Postby W » January 17th, 2010, 5:48 am

Release dates help/hurt a film. Maybe not completely, but it does normally. Consider a world where Avatar and Transformers 2 were released on the same day. Does either come close to what they're going to gross now? Either both of their gross is cut in half (or it only grosses 75%) or Transformers doesn't cover its budget.

Spy Next Door was a bad looking film, but if marketed differently it could have succeeded. That whole part in the trailer where he throws the girl in the air was just awful.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
User avatar
W
Jack Torrance
 
Posts: 6593
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 4:37 pm

Re: 1/15 Weekend Tracking

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » January 17th, 2010, 5:54 am

I always thought that was kinda crap. If two great movies are released on the same day, people who want to see both will see both. Maybe not OW, but they will.

And yes, previous weekends can kind of give you an idea of how a similar movie might do, but it's never a guarantee. People expected Spy Next Door to get $25M OW just b/c it's MLK weekend. They kind of forgot that the movie has a super overdone premise, an awful marketing campaign, and an unproven box office star. Come on, when has Jackie Chan ever sold a movie on his own?
Alexandra Daddario: Eyes of a Demon, Face of My Future Ex-Wife
User avatar
BanksIsDaFuture
Alex
 
Posts: 5994
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 4:09 pm

Re: 1/15 Weekend Tracking

Postby undeadmonkey » January 17th, 2010, 2:27 pm

I must agree with W, release dates really do help or break a movie. there a few reasons for that. one is is a lot of people dont go to the movies as often as we do, so they make a choice between one or the other. another is if a movie isnt that great and is being overshadowed by other similar films but if it was released at a time with no competition then it would make much more because audiences dont have a choice.
User avatar
undeadmonkey
Tony Stark/ Iron Man
 
Posts: 4060
Joined: October 22nd, 2009, 1:39 pm

Re: 1/15 Weekend Tracking

Postby numbersix » January 17th, 2010, 2:37 pm

BOM ESTIMATES

1 Avatar $41,000,000
2 The Book of Eli $31,615,000
3 The Lovely Bones $17,060,000
4 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel $11,500,000
5 Sherlock Holmes $9,825,000
6 The Spy Next Door $9,700,000
7 It's Complicated $7,672,000
8 Leap Year $5,828,000
9 The Blind Side $5,565,000
10 Up in the Air $5,460,000
11 Daybreakers $5,000,000
12 Youth in Revolt W/Dim. $2,822,000

Wow, look at how well Avatar is holding and much Youth in Revolt and Daybreakers dropped.
Spy Next Door is a bit of a bomb. I thought a family-oriented film on MLK weekend would fare better, but guess not.
The Lovely Bones is doing quite well. Shame, because it's crap.

In terms of PTA, at the moment, and under the new rules, it's:
5 Eli
4 Spy
3 Leap Year
2 Daybreakers
1 Youth

Although there may be a battle for a point or two once we get the numers for Waiting for Armageddon and Wonderful World.
User avatar
numbersix
The Dude
 
Posts: 9622
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: 1/15 Weekend Tracking

Postby frendo » January 17th, 2010, 3:02 pm

I don't really understand the new PTA rules, to be honest.
User avatar
frendo
Marty McFly
 
Posts: 850
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 7:52 pm

Re: 1/15 Weekend Tracking

Postby Buscemi » January 17th, 2010, 3:03 pm

BanksIsDaFuture wrote:And yes, previous weekends can kind of give you an idea of how a similar movie might do, but it's never a guarantee. People expected Spy Next Door to get $25M OW just b/c it's MLK weekend. They kind of forgot that the movie has a super overdone premise, an awful marketing campaign, and an unproven box office star. Come on, when has Jackie Chan ever sold a movie on his own?


Rumble In The Bronx. But that was 1996.
Everything on this post is strictly the opinion and only the opinion of Buscemi.

Spotify: http://open.spotify.com/user/1244530511/playlist/6exMMnE4Kpu99GBj16VEmr
User avatar
Buscemi
CONGRATS! You may now chose your own rank!
 
Posts: 16164
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 11:14 am
Location: Baltimore State Hospital for the Criminally Insane

Re: 1/15 Weekend Tracking

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » January 17th, 2010, 3:12 pm

undeadmonkey wrote:I must agree with W, release dates really do help or break a movie. there a few reasons for that. one is is a lot of people dont go to the movies as often as we do, so they make a choice between one or the other. another is if a movie isnt that great and is being overshadowed by other similar films but if it was released at a time with no competition then it would make much more because audiences dont have a choice.


Well, Sherlock Holmes has been overshadowed by Avatar, yet it's closing in on $200M. Might it have made an extra $10 or $20M if Avatar didn't exist? Probably. But a significant difference like $50M or even $75M? No way. You guys act like people have a limit on how many movies people can see - if they want to see X amount of films, barring something far more serious than too many choices, they'll probably see what they want.

And as far as ticket prices and the economy, 2009 was one of the biggest years ever. So that obviously has no bearing on the situation.
Alexandra Daddario: Eyes of a Demon, Face of My Future Ex-Wife
User avatar
BanksIsDaFuture
Alex
 
Posts: 5994
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 4:09 pm

Re: 1/15 Weekend Tracking

Postby BanksIsDaFuture » January 17th, 2010, 3:13 pm

Buscemi wrote:
BanksIsDaFuture wrote:And yes, previous weekends can kind of give you an idea of how a similar movie might do, but it's never a guarantee. People expected Spy Next Door to get $25M OW just b/c it's MLK weekend. They kind of forgot that the movie has a super overdone premise, an awful marketing campaign, and an unproven box office star. Come on, when has Jackie Chan ever sold a movie on his own?


Rumble In The Bronx. But that was 1996.


Well, I wouldn't use a 9/32 film as a positive example...even in 1996 dollars.
Alexandra Daddario: Eyes of a Demon, Face of My Future Ex-Wife
User avatar
BanksIsDaFuture
Alex
 
Posts: 5994
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 4:09 pm

Next

Return to Tracking, Estimates, and Date Changes

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron