Thanksgiving Weekend

[nickb1016]

After the huge buisness of last weekend this thanksgiving holiday is set to bring in massive numbers. But the question is how much. How will New Moon and The Blind Side hold up after their huge openings? Can 2012 and A Christmas Carol stabilize after some harsh falls? Will Precious continue to expand to big numbers? Can the new openers make a dent in such a crowded marketplace?

The number 1 movie should again be New Moon. Despite opening way above Twilight this is still mirroring that film's daily percentage changes. The first film fell 62% over thanksgiving weekend and think/hope New Moon will fall harder. Even though I would love a bigger fall I think 65% fall to 50mill sounds right and about 70 to 80 million over the 5 day weekend which send this movie soaring past 200 million.

I thought Old Dogs looked like a great way to repeat the success of Wild Hogs, but it doesn't seem to be tracking well enough to bring in Hogs numbers. It has strong star power and its the best option for families looking for a laugh over the holiday weekend. It could pull in 33 million over it's 3 days and 50 million over it's 5 days. But that's a bit optimistic.

The Blind Side showed incredible strength last weekend. Too bad it was overshadowed by New Moon, given that it more than doubled its tracking. It has wide appeal, Sandra Bullock, and will be another good choice for families who want something with more substance than Old Dogs. A 25% fall to 25 million over 3 days and it should stay flat with 35million over the 5 day. That would be a fantastic 10 day total approaching 80million.

Ninja Assassin is tracking well and looks to fill the generic action movie spot for the holidays. It has to compete with 2012 so a breakout will be hard and it has that r rating. So about 14-15mill for the 3 day and 22 for the 5 day look about right putting this right in the same range as Transporter 3 and Hitman.

2012 dropped hard but with both The Blind Side and New Moon opening so far above expectations the drop makes a lot of sense. Its holds are in line with Quantum of Solace thus far and this should be another good option for families. a 26% fall will give it 19.5mill for the 3 day and could do about 27 for the 5 day lifting it total to around 140mill. That's a good enough total given that the film already boasts a worldwide total of 450million in just 10 days of release.

A Christmas Carol fell pretty hard last weekend but the holiday theme should help this one a lot. It could jump by about 15% to 14 million for the 3 day and 16mill for the 5 day.

Planet 51 and Fantastic Mr.Fox will be trying for the rest of the family audience. They both should see about 10 million for the 3 day and 15million for the 5 day.

Precious is the last significant film in wide release. Its hard to say what it will do until we know it's theater count for the weekend. I'm going to base my predictions off of a count of 1,000. It should bring in about 12mill for the 3 day and 18 for the 5 day.

1. New Moon- 50.0/76.4
2. Old Dogs- 33.4/50.1
3. Blind Side- 24.9/35.9
4. 2012- 19.7/27.8
5. Ninja- 15.1/22.5
6. Carol- 14.8/16.9
7. Precious- 12.3/18.2
8. Fantastic- 10.8/15.5
9. Planet 51- 10.7/15.2

anything below that isn't really worth talking about

[BanksIsDaFuture]

This is random, but I think it's funny that A Christmas Carol will mostly be out of theaters when Christmas actually comes around.

[Shrykespeare]

Or Disney could ask for a Christmas Season push, along with Alvin 2.

[transformers2]

I say those are pretty accurate guess. I think Ninja Assassin might do a little bit better than that but everything else looks pretty spot-on.

[undeadmonkey]

looks like Old Dogs is a flop only a $3M wednesday, Ninja Assassin actually beat it by $100,000

[Buscemi]

I imagine that since it is a family film, Old Dogs will get better numbers on Thursday and the weekend. Apparently, the movie was performing well in crowd reports on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Ninja Assassin will probably have lower numbers on Thursday due to its niche appeal.

[undeadmonkey]

you could be right

[Buscemi]

In other news, I'm trying to figure out how the Twilight audience grew between the first two movies. I figured that all of the negativity towards the films and the number of projects that rip off Twilight (The Vampire's Assistant, The Vampire Diaries) plus the large amount of DTV cash-ins starring the Twilight actors no one cares about (like Ashley Greene and those other ones that I forget the names of) would cause a large dropoff after the first day.

At least we've got the UK. They seem to know when to give good and bad word of mouth (Jennifer's Body dropped 75% in its second week while Fantastic Mr. Fox actually increased its numbers in its second week while on its way to being one of the biggest films of the year there).

[J.I.]

So on Thursday The Blind Side made $9.6 million and New Moon made $9.3 million. Holy crap! Didn't think counterprogramming worked like that. The Blind Side will almost definately make more this weekend than last weekend.

Also i hear Princess and the Frog is doing insane business. Should place #10 this weekend from only 2 theaters.

[numbersix]

2 day cume for Ninja Assassin 7.9,2 Day for Old Dogs 7.2 !!

[W]

The audience for Twilight increased for a few reasons, the biggest one is the first film. People that saw it in its twelfth week all of a sudden make the second one a "must see on opening weekend" film. Plus the people that saw it on DVD thought the same thing. Then you've got the kids that just now got old enough to see it, plus no one really "grew out" of it.

After the film came out and there was all the press about it, the book sales rose as well.

[W]

Blind Side = great WOM, not really counterprogramming. Everyone I heard of that saw it loved it.

[undeadmonkey]

So on Thursday The Blind Side made $9.6 million and New Moon made $9.3 million. Holy crap! Didn't think counterprogramming worked like that. The Blind Side will almost definately make more this weekend than last weekend.

Also i hear Princess and the Frog is doing insane business. Should place #10 this weekend from only 2 theaters.

hahahaha, that's awesome

[Geezer]

$132 thousand per theater on Wednesday for Princess and the Frog! Then another 83,500 on thursday! And we thought Precious was big! This is absolutely INSANE! Disney has a hit on their hands! We could be looking at the third biggest PTA weekend ever!

[transformers2]

Ninja Assassin out doing Old Dogs is great to see and very shocking. I am actually going to see Ninja Assassin tonight.