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Future Tracking From Exhibitors

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » March 2nd, 2018, 9:20 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

3/9 A Wrinkle in Time 39/115
3/9 The Hurricane Heist 4.5/11.3
3/9 Strangers: Prey at Night 7/15
3/9 Gringo 3/7.5
3/9 I Can Only Imagine 1.5/3

3/16 Tomb Raider 28/70
3/16 Love Simon 13/40

3/23 Pacific Rim Uprising 25/61
3/23 Sherlock Gnomes 16/58
3/23 Paul Apostle of Christ 13.5/47.5
3/23 Midnight Sun 4.5/11.3
3/23 Unsane 4/8

3/30 Ready Player One 54/180
3/30 Acrimony 19/46
3/30 God's Not Dead: A Light in Darkness 6/15.4

4/6 Blockers 19/63
4/6 A Quiet Place 25/78

4/13 Truth or Dare 23/47
4/13 Overboard 14/39

4/20 I Feel Pretty 21/70
4/20 Rampage 19/47
4/20 Super Troopers 2 5/10
4/20 Tully n/a

4/27 Avengers: Infinity War 215/538
4/27 Traffik 4/10
4/27 Bad Samaritan n/a





Somewhat unexpectedly, this week’s long range report takes a first look at the beginning of summer movie season following a bombshell release date change announced by Disney on Thursday: Avengers: Infinity War is now slated to open Friday, April 27 — one week earlier than the previously scheduled Friday, May 4.

This marks the first time an Avengers film has opted out of the traditional first Friday of May slot, and positions the film for something closer to a simultaneous global launch — something the Marvel Cinematic Universe hasn’t seen much as its films have typically opened overseas one or two weeks before North America.

The pivot also distances the film from May 18’s Deadpool 2 and Disney’s own Solo: A Star Wars Story on May 25, giving the trio of tentpoles more breathing room in a May window that’s poised to become a record one at the box office.

Should the current global strategy remain the plan, Infinity War stands a reasonable chance at topping last year’s The Fate of the Furious standing records as both the overseas ($443.2 million) and worldwide opening weekend ($541.9 million) champ when the Marvel heroes assemble less than two months from now. (Worth noting is that the film still has a handful of countries — Russia included — slated to debut one week later.)

Domestically, however, is where this report is mainly focused for now.

Never mind 2018 itself, it goes without saying Infinity War is one of this decade’s keystone event films — just as next year’s Avengers 4 likely will be. Bringing together the entire roster of characters, Marvel Studios is in the midst of celebrating its 10th anniversary (marked by the release of the original Iron Man in May 2008) with what studio head Kevin Feige has promised in no uncertain terms will be the culmination of every story they’ve brought to the screen so far.

This will mark the 19th chapter of the universe, and fans are being prepared to expect some sort of finality to the current iteration of the MCU over the course of the next year.

What to Expect

It’s hard to view this as a traditional trilogy-capper within the Avengers sub-set of films. Infinity War and the forthcoming, untitled Avengers 4 slated for May 2019 were filmed back-to-back by Anthony and Joe Russo (Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Civil War) and, at one time, planned as a two-parter under the same subtitle. Marvel shifted gears by dropping the IW moniker from next year’s film, but little else has been confirmed in terms of what to expect — likely due to the fact that it would spoil what happens in this film.

Will next year’s “conclusion” similarly boast the full universe cast of Iron Man, Captain America, Spider-Man, the Guardians of the Galaxy, Black Panther, Thor, Doctor Strange, Hulk, et al? We simply don’t know yet, and that’s a hugely significant factor to consider in expectations for this film’s box office potential. As such, forecasts for total grosses may be volatile in the coming weeks.

Buzz will undoubtedly be strong — Infinity War‘s Twitter activity is on par with that of Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Age of Ultron at the same point before release, while far ahead of Black Panther and Civil War — and reviews close to release will be key as always.

But, if the film leaves moviegoers on a hard cliffhanger in combination with possible deaths of beloved characters that Marvel films have generally avoided up to this point, staying power could turn out to be more frontloaded like that of the aforementioned Ultron and Civil War, as opposed to the more widely crowd-pleasing first Avengers, Black Panther, first Guardians, first Iron Man, etc. that displayed incredible legs by tripling their already-massive opening weekend grosses.

In terms of opening weekend, the immense level of hype the film is currently generating across the social media spectrum indicates what will likely be the sixth film to ever open north of $200 million domestically. Using the Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows two-parter as a close comparison for this and next year’s Avengers films, Infinity War may not approach the all-time record of $248 million held by Star Wars: The Force Awakens (just as Deathly Hallows I came in well short of The Dark Knight‘s record opening at the time).

That unfair comparison aside, the third place Jurassic World‘s $208.8 million debut is well within reach, and The Last Jedi‘s second-best-ever $220 million bow isn’t out of the question either.

With those caveats aside, it’s ultimately important to remember this: Marvel and Disney have a consistent history of coming in ahead of even the most optimistic expectations, so anything is possible.

Infinity War: Box Office Ranges

At this time, our ranges for the next Marvel tentpole stand as follows:

Domestic Opening Weekend: $200 million – $235 million
Domestic Total Gross: $490 million – $590 million

Current pinpoint forecasts are listed in the table below and will be updated as tracking changes in the weeks ahead.


This Week’s Other Updates

STX’s I Feel Pretty moved up one week to an April 20 release in response to the Avengers shift. We currently expect the Amy Schumer comedy to be a strong female-driven option in late April through May based on encouraging buzz following the film’s first trailer. A Mother’s Day weekend boost in mid-May will be good news toward staying power.

A slew of upcoming releases have been updated as the post-Black Panther/pre-Avengers market continues to take shape.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » March 15th, 2018, 8:59 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


3/16 Tomb Raider 28/70
3/16 Love Simon 12/34
3/16 I Can Only Imagine 3/6

3/23 Pacific Rim Uprising 25/61
3/23 Sherlock Gnomes 16/58
3/23 Paul Apostle of Christ 13/47.5
3/23 Midnight Sun 4.5/11.3
3/23 Unsane 4/8

3/30 Ready Player One 52/173
3/30 Acrimony 17/41
3/30 God's Not Dead: A Light in Darkness 6/15.4

4/6 Blockers 19/63
4/6 A Quiet Place 25/78

4/13 Rampage 20/49.5
4/13 Truth or Dare 19/30

4/20 I Feel Pretty 21/70
4/20 Super Troopers 2 5/10
4/20 Traffik 3.5/8.75

4/27 Avengers: Infinity War 215/538

5/4 Overboard 14/39
5/4 Bad Samairtan n/a
5/4 Tully n/a
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » March 17th, 2018, 1:45 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


3/23 Pacific Rim Uprising 25/61
3/23 Sherlock Gnomes 16/58
3/23 Paul Apostle of Christ 12.5/43.9
3/23 Midnight Sun 3.75/9.4
3/23 Unsane 3.75/7.5

3/29 Ready Player One 37/120
3/30 Acrimony 14.5/35
3/30 God's Not Dead: A Light in Darkness 6/15.4

4/6 A Quiet Place 26/80
4/6 Blockers 18/59.7
4/6 Chappaquiddick 3.5/7
4/6 The Miracle Season n/a

4/13 Rampage 20/49.5
4/13 Truth or Dare 19/30

4/20 I Feel Pretty 21/70
4/20 Super Troopers 2 5/10
4/20 Traffik 3.5/8.75

4/27 Avengers: Infinity War 215/538

5/4 Overboard 14/39
5/4 Bad Samairtan n/a
5/4 Tully n/a

5/11 Life of the Party 21/54
5/11 Breaking In 14/37.5




This week’s report sees the addition of Life of the Party and Breaking In, both currently set for release on Friday, May 11 ahead of Mother’s Day.

The weekend has proven to be a solid launching pad for female-targeted films over the years, although with varying degrees of box office and critical success. Current tracking shows that the Melissa McCarthy vehicle — Life of the Party — is trending very well in advance marketing with social media activity significantly outpacing that of The Boss and last year’s Mother’s Day opener, Snatched.

Breaking In is on the more conservative end of expectations at the moment, however, with modest Facebook activity among the target adult audience. There’s plenty of time for that to change with such a packed slate of releases over the next two months, but current models suggest it could perform anywhere between the range of last year’s Unforgettable or 2015’s The Boy Next Door. Its ceiling could be higher, though.

Ultimately, both films — especially Life of the Party — may share some late run audience with April’s I Feel Pretty, which remains a sleeper hit candidate thanks to early reactions among target female audiences. That film will be in its fourth weekend of release by Mother’s Day weekend, so the openers could reasonably coexist with the Amy Schumer flick.


This Week’s Key Updates


Ready Player One bowed to very positive reactions at the SXSW screening last weekend, indicating the target fan base will pleased with the film upon release. Still, early critics’ reviews are healthy-but-not-fantastic, and we continue to see modest trends for the film as release approaches, suggesting that a breakout beyond the core novel/Spielberg/80s nostalgia crowd will be tough. While we still won’t rule out a run similar to that of 2010’s Tron: Legacy, it is J.J. Abrams’ Super 8 that is beginning to look like a stronger comparison film in terms of box office prospects.

Conversely, A Quiet Place continues to make a case for sleeper hit status when it opens in three weeks. While social media footprints based on our internal analysis haven’t quite reached the level of Get Out or Split yet, comparisons remain very favorable to the likes of 10 Cloverfield Lane and Don’t Breathe. The film’s ceiling continues to rise, so it’s definitely a film we wouldn’t be surprised to break out if reviews and word of mouth are strong.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » March 24th, 2018, 3:37 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


3/29 Ready Player One 37/120
3/30 Acrimony 15.5/37
3/30 God's Not Dead: A Light in Darkness 6/15.4

4/6 A Quiet Place 26/80
4/6 Blockers 14.5/47
4/6 Chappaquiddick 3.5/7
4/6 The Miracle Season n/a

4/13 Rampage 27/65
4/13 Truth or Dare 15/30

4/20 I Feel Pretty 21/70
4/20 Super Troopers 2 5/10
4/20 Traffik 3.5/8.75

4/27 Avengers: Infinity War 215/538

5/4 Overboard 14/39
5/4 Bad Samairtan n/a
5/4 Tully n/a

5/11 Life of the Party 21/54
5/11 Breaking In 14/37.5

5/18 Deadpool 2 100/242
5/18 Show Dogs 8/25
5/18 Book Club 6/19



Deadpool 2 represents this week’s headline addition to Long Range Tracking. The anticipated sequel is slated to hit North American theaters on May 18, alongside Open Road’s Show Dogs and Paramount’s Book Club.

Two years ago, the first Deadpool shattered February box office records (recently eclipsed by Black Panther) when it wowed the industry with a $132 million three-day weekend bow. Still the best R-rated launch ever — just ahead of It‘s $123.4 million last September — Deadpool marked a turning point for the superhero genre with its raunchy, self-referential, fourth-wall-breaking comedy from star Ryan Reynolds. The film’s pre-release social marketing campaign became a benchmark on how to engage audiences with a relatively unknown character outside the core fan base.

Can Fox, Reynolds, and team do it again?

It’s an unfair question, because the inevitable answer is no — not in the same way, at least, and it doesn’t really need to. After a massive $363 million domestic/$783 million global run, the cat is out of the proverbial bag. Deadpool is now an established brand, and has no significant box office comparisons beyond itself due to its unique nature as an R-rated tentpole comic book sequel.

The first film was a breath of fresh air in the realm of superheroes, and had a double holiday weekend (Valentine’s Day and Presidents Day) to compound opening weekend interest among the masses. That kind of synergy won’t be duplicated on a non-holiday weekend in May, particularly landing on the fourth weekend of Avengers: Infinity War and coming just one week before Solo: A Star Wars Story. All three films will lean somewhat heavily toward male crowds aged 25 and up.

Nevertheless, strong social media sentiment culled from our Twitter and Facebook analyses indicates fans are pumped for the sequel — in large part due to Josh Brolin’s debut as Cable, one of the most popular villains from Marvel comic lore. While diminished returns are expected at the box office based on current models, early indicators still point toward another sure-fire commercial hit for Fox as their over-arching X-Men universe (of which Deadpool is technically part of) continues to expand. Should strong reviews follow as they did for the first title, forecasts could see additional gains in the weeks ahead.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » March 24th, 2018, 8:10 pm

I think Book Club will do a bit better based on the strength of the cast. However, there is a lot of fare aimed towards women opening in May, which could cause it to be lost in the shuffle.

Meanwhile, I'm surprised that there's been no buzz whatsoever for Truth or Dare. Maybe teenagers are pickier than we thought (also, Lucy Hale's new show's apparently not very good and I bet Blumhouse was hoping that would bring in interest).
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » March 31st, 2018, 1:34 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


4/6 A Quiet Place 27.5/85
4/6 Blockers 14.5/47
4/6 Chappaquiddick 3.5/7
4/6 The Miracle Season n/a

4/13 Rampage 31/72
4/13 Truth or Dare 15/30

4/20 I Feel Pretty 20/67
4/20 Super Troopers 2 5/10
4/20 Traffik 3.5/8.75

4/27 Avengers: Infinity War 215/538

5/4 Overboard 14/39
5/4 Bad Samairtan n/a
5/4 Tully n/a

5/11 Life of the Party 21/54
5/11 Breaking In 14/37.5

5/18 Deadpool 2 100/242
5/18 Show Dogs 8/25
5/18 Book Club 6/19

5/25 Solo: A Star Wars Story 150/390



The Disney-Star Wars Era So Far…

The Star Wars franchise has prospered about as well as anyone could have imagined since the Disney ownership era began five and a half years ago. Kathleen Kennedy has successfully led Lucasfilm and the entertainment industry’s top tier brand name through the course of three films thus far, amassing nearly $2.1 billion in North America and over $4.45 billion worldwide.

That’s not even counting ancillary revenue streams like home video/streaming sales, merchandising, novelizations, and the acclaimed Star Wars Rebels animated series that just wrapped up a four-season run through the Mouse House’s television arm.

Drama!

The elephant in the room when it comes to any early analysis on the forthcoming Solo is inevitably the film’s highly publicized directorial shake-up last summer. To be fair, though, Rogue One endured its own version of behind-the-scenes drama, prematurely spooking fans but ultimately turning out to be a hugely successful and well-received blockbuster.

The truth is that very few films in the entire franchise have ever escaped some sort of production turmoil (whether perceived or genuine) that spawned unnecessary rumor-mongering and panic among die hard fans (the original 1999-2005 prequels being the only true exceptions to this trend).

Yet, fans still turn out in droves every time. That’s the power of the Star Wars mythos: no matter how much criticism it engenders, fairly or unfairly, fans and casual audiences consistently return to the series because of its endearing characters and captivating storytelling.

Solo v. The Competition

With that said, from an objective point of view, Solo doesn’t have a some of the key advantages the recent films have enjoyed at the box office. Moving away from a Christmas release could easily shorten the film’s legs as it opens in a very competitive summer window. Releasing nearly one month after Avengers: Infinity War shouldn’t make that Marvel title a major concern (Disney was wise to distance the two films by recently moving the Marvel epic up one week).

However, Deadpool 2’s second weekend — if it generates positive word of mouth — will be aiming for some of the target older male audience that drives Star Wars.

On the other side of the fence, The Incredibles 2 is poised to be the animated event of summer (if not 2018), and that Pixar title drops in Solo‘s fourth weekend. Kiddies that often dominate the later-week runs of Star Wars flicks may be divided between Solo and Pixar’s long-awaited sequel, although there may still be room for co-existence between these films if word of mouth swings largely positive.

Star Wars v. Itself

Perhaps the most important factor will be the reality that Solo opens just five months after The Last Jedi. That’s an incredibly quick turnaround for a franchise that has already pushed out three huge earners over the course of three straight years. Many will argue that Star Wars is an exception to the rule that fatigue strikes all franchises, but this will be the series’ first legitimate test of that.

Additionally, the most recent Episode XIII stirred some of the most widely polarizing fan responses to the franchise since the initial release days of Empire Strikes Back and Return of the Jedi. Can you, like Mark Hamill and Rian Johnson, imagine what Twitter’s reaction would have been to the now-heralded final act of Empire had social media existed in the 1980s?

To that point, it wouldn’t be surprising for those highly opinionated fans to feel a bit of fatigue toward the franchise in a summer that looks to be jam-packed with potential blockbusters and with a prequel story about a character whose long-term fate is already known to anyone not living under a rock. That’s a key factor that Rogue One itself avoided by focusing on a cast of new and unknown characters.

Not having the euphoric buzz from The Force Awakens leading into this anthology film, as was the case with Rogue, is another important element to keep in mind.

The Big Picture for Star Wars and Solo

Expectations should reasonably be kept in check more than they have been for the franchise in recent years, but there is every hope that director Ron Howard has stepped in and completed a project that will entertain audiences as Star Wars has always done even at its “lowest” points. The barometer for success is not the $532 million domestic gross of Rogue One, and it’s important to ignore those kinds of short-sighted comparisons in the coming months.

Word of mouth and reviews, as always, will be crucial to the long term success of Solo. For now, a domestic gross anywhere between $350-475 million looks most likely. Early social media buzz and trailer reactions around this film suggest the franchise may be due for a bit of a rest — if only in relative terms to Star Wars‘ typical otherworldly numbers — before December 2019’s trilogy-capping Episode IX arrives with a renewed sense of anticipation behind it.

Still, none of this is meant to cast a shadow over the potential of Solo. Millions of fans and families still adore this series, and Han Solo remains one of the franchise’s most popular characters by far. Harrison Ford will surely be missed in the role, but many are excited to see Alden Ehrenreich’s youthful and charismatic interpretation, not to mention Donald Glover’s young Lando, alongside franchise newcomers Woody Harrelson and Game of Thrones‘ Emilia Clarke.

This franchise has always served as an all-too-relevant parable for hope triumphing over despair, while simultaneously serving as fun, escapist fare built for all ages. If the efforts thus far of Disney, Lucasfilm, Kathleen Kennedy, and the entire Star Wars team are any indication, it will be the fans who embrace such a philosophy that Solo will best appeal to.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » April 7th, 2018, 12:18 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


4/13 Rampage 37/85
4/13 Truth or Dare 14/28

4/20 I Feel Pretty 17/57
4/20 Super Troopers 2 5/10
4/20 Traffik 3.5/8.75

4/27 Avengers: Infinity War 225/586

5/4 Overboard 14/39
5/4 Bad Samairtan n/a
5/4 Tully n/a

5/11 Life of the Party 21/54
5/11 Breaking In 14/37.5

5/18 Deadpool 2 100/242
5/18 Show Dogs 8/25
5/18 Book Club 6/19

5/25 Solo: A Star Wars Story 150/390

6/1 Action Point 17/42.5
6/1 Adrift 10/34




Fans of Jackass and Bad Grandpa will be the target crowd for Knoxville’s return to the big screen in Action Point, with the recent trailer generating fairly positive reception online. If Paramount successfully plays up the fact that the movie’s stunts are genuine (ala the Jackass franchise), and if positive reviews follow, this could be a release to keep an eye on.

Counter-programming with a focus on mostly female audiences, Adrift could attract young adult date night crowds that helped make previous summer titles like The Shallows and 47 Meters Down successful. Social media growth thus far is modest, but that’s to be expected this far out from release.


This Week’s Key Updates

Rampage is looking stronger as next week’s opening approaches. The film is making significant gains across all tracking metrics as Dwayne Johnson’s star power remains the key to interest levels now lining up with comparable titles such as Oblivion and The Legend of Tarzan.
Avengers: Infinity War Tracking

Avengers: Infinity War continues to outpace all films in the superhero genre. Traditional industry tracking released this week backed up our own previous tracking reports indicating that the film should have little trouble cracking $200 million in its first weekend, although Disney and rival outlets are both projecting more conservatively than our current forecast models suggest. Robust marketing, interest, social media footprints, and pre-sale activity further underscore increasing expectations.

At this time, Boxoffice tracking ranges for the next Marvel tentpole are:

Domestic Opening Weekend: $219 million – $240 million
Domestic Total Gross: $550 million – $615 million

Current pinpoint forecasts are listed in the table below and will be updated as necessary in the weeks ahead.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » April 7th, 2018, 1:17 pm

The Action Point trailer has been playing very well before audiences I've seen it with. Maybe it's for the best they don't know about all the incidents that occurred at the actual park (Action Park in Vernon, New Jersey) the filmmakers based their story on.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » April 14th, 2018, 3:12 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


4/20 I Feel Pretty 17/57
4/20 Super Troopers 2 5/10
4/20 Traffik 3.5/8.5

4/27 Avengers: Infinity War 235/600

5/4 Overboard 14/39
5/4 Bad Samairtan n/a
5/4 Tully n/a

5/11 Life of the Party 21/54
5/11 Breaking In 14/37.5

5/18 Deadpool 2 100/242
5/18 Show Dogs 8/25
5/18 Book Club 6/19

5/25 Solo: A Star Wars Story 150/390

6/1 Action Point 17/42.5
6/1 Adrift 10/34
6/1 Upgrade n/a

6/8 Ocean's 8 42/145
6/8 Hereditary n/a




This week’s report takes a first look at Ocean’s 8, the anticipated continuation of Steven Soderbergh’s rebooted 2001-2007 trilogy, which is currently slated for release on June 8.

The main attraction for the film has thus been far been the decision to shift toward an all-female ensemble led by Sandra Bullock, Cate Blanchett, Anne Hathaway, Helena Bonham Carter, Sarah Paulson, Rihanna, and more. Although George Clooney, Brad Pitt, et al aren’t expected to return, there is word that Matt Damon will reprise his character from the previous films.

Early social media buzz is comparable to that of Bullock’s own 2013 summer hit, The Heat, as Ocean’s previous teaser and latest trailer have been warmly received. The film will effectively serve as the first female-targeted tentpole of summer following a month of May dominated by male-leaning blockbusters, a huge advantage in an industry that is increasingly seeing the benefits of a more diverse release slate. Additionally, writer/director Gary Ross is no stranger to successful female-driven films having helmed 2012’s The Hunger Games adaptation.

Also opening on June 8 will be A24’s sleeper hit candidate Hereditary, but we’re holding off on public forecasts at this time.

Avengers: Infinity War Tracking Update

Infinity War is redefining the ceiling of pre-release buzz for the superhero genre. Following last week’s increase in tracking projections, Fandango reported a few days ago that the massively anticipated semi-finale to the last ten years of the Marvel Cinematic Universe is outselling all MCU titles (dating back to 2015’s Ant-Man) combined through the same point in the pre-sales cycle. Our own social media metrics continue to reach new heights for the genre, with Twitter activity notably performing 129 percent higher than Captain America: Civil War and 52 percent higher than Avengers: Age of Ultron at comparable points in the pre-release cycle. Outside the MCU, Infinity War is well ahead of Star Wars: The Last Jedi and approaching levels similar to those of Star Wars: The Force Awakens. The Marvel epic’s chances at reaching that latter film’s all-time opening weekend record of $247.97 million are increasingly possible based on current trends.

At this time, Boxoffice’s tracking ranges for the next Marvel tentpole are:

Domestic Opening Weekend: $235 million – $255 million
Domestic Total Gross: $565 million – $650 million

Updates to follow as necessary in the weeks ahead.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Buscemi2 » April 14th, 2018, 4:14 pm

I can't see Ocean's 8 doing that well. This one looks less like a spinoff of the trilogy and more like a cheap cash-in with its downmarket feel (I'd rather they robbed another casino, seeing how Atlantic City hasn't been done yet, than something as stereotypical as Fashion Week). It might open well based on the star power but I expect a fast drop afterwards.

And I really thought Hereditary could hit $100 million and be the sleeper of the summer (that or Uncle Drew). But now, I'm thinking it will be lucky to hit $20 million. A24 can't push this film like a major can and its two-hour-plus run time hurts its mainstream appeal.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » April 21st, 2018, 2:12 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


4/27 Avengers: Infinity War 235/600

5/4 Overboard 14/39
5/4 Bad Samairtan n/a
5/4 Tully n/a

5/11 Life of the Party 21/54
5/11 Breaking In 13/34.8

5/18 Deadpool 2 100/242
5/18 Show Dogs 8/25
5/18 Book Club 6/19

5/25 Solo: A Star Wars Story 150/390

6/1 Action Point 17/42.5
6/1 Adrift 10/34
6/1 Upgrade n/a

6/8 Ocean's 8 42/145
6/8 Hereditary n/a

6/15 The Incredibles 2 110/395
6/15 Tag 13/43
6/15 Superfly n/a




Writer/director Brad Bird returns with the long-awaited sequel, which has been among the most in demand by Pixar fans since the original film’s run in late 2004. That pic’s $70.5 million opening weekend and $261.4 million domestic haul were Pixar’s best and second best behind Finding Nemo, respectively, at the time.

The sequel’s trailers have picked up where the original’s goodwill left off, generating strong reactions across social media. In fact, Incredibles 2‘s social footprint thus far is trending ahead of Monsters University and, in some aspects, even Finding Dory.

While the original film didn’t quite have the staying power of typical Pixar films, that can arguably be chalked up to the fact that it was ahead of its time. Not only was it the first Pixar title to star human characters, it also opened before the box office boom of superhero films. That sub-genre has gone on to dominate the market over the past decade, spearheaded in recent years by Disney’s own Marvel universe. Pixar itself has since produced massively successful films led by human characters in the likes of Inside Out, Up, Brave, Coco, and Ratatouille.

For Incredibles‘ own part, it has since gone on to become a beloved staple of family movie libraries around the world. The shift of this film’s focus to the family matriarch — Elastigirl (aka Helen Parr, voiced by Holly Hunter) — could serve to further strengthen the film’s appeal among mothers and daughters.

Last but not least, this summer is fairly limited on animated titles boasting blockbuster potential. Only July’s Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation will provide direct competition in the medium, meaning Incredibles 2 has a wide open path to success if reviews and word of mouth deliver at typical Pixar standards.

Also opening on June 15 will be Warner Bros.’ Tag and Sony’s Superfly, but we’re withholding public forecasts for the latter at this time. Check our initial tracking for The Incredibles 2 and Tag in the table above.


Avengers: Infinity War Tracking Update

Marvel’s ten-year culmination remains poised for a historic debut next week. The film’s Twitter footprint now more than doubles that of Avengers: Age of Ultron and remains ahead of Star Wars: The Last Jedi. Traditional tracking remains at a stellar pace thanks partly to awareness metrics in line with those of Black Panther and Last Jedi. Marketing has delivered the kind of “finale factor” hype only comparable to the biggest of past film franchise finales, increasing the possibility of reaching/breaking Star Wars: The Force Awakens‘ all-time opening weekend record.

At this time, Boxoffice’s official tracking for the next Marvel tentpole is:

Domestic Opening Weekend: $235 million – $255 million
Domestic Total Gross: $565 million – $650 million
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » May 1st, 2018, 11:50 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


5/4 Overboard 14/39
5/4 Bad Samairtan n/a
5/4 Tully n/a

5/11 Life of the Party 21/54
5/11 Breaking In 13/34.8

5/18 Deadpool 2 120/290
5/18 Show Dogs 8/25
5/18 Book Club 8/25

5/25 Solo: A Star Wars Story 150/390

6/1 Action Point 17/42.5
6/1 Adrift 10/34
6/1 Upgrade n/a

6/8 Ocean's 8 42/145
6/8 Hereditary n/a

6/15 The Incredibles 2 110/395
6/15 Tag 13/43
6/15 Superfly n/a

6/22 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 139/350




This week’s report focuses on Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom — the fifth installment in the Jurassic Park franchise, which will be in the midst of celebrating its 25th anniversary this summer.

The return of stars Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard will please fans of 2015’s Jurassic World, while older fans are eagerly anticipating the return of Jeff Goldblum’s Ian Malcolm character, whom hasn’t been seen in the franchise since 1997’s The Lost World. Fallen Kingdom‘s early teaser reactions weren’t as positively received as those of its predecessor initially, but the most recent payoff trailer has generated more positive reactions online.

While comparing social media trends for this sequel to the 2015 film could be hit and miss due to severe under-tracking three years ago, Kingdom‘s same-point metrics are comparable to those of fellow Chris Pratt-led sequel Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. That title bowed to an excellent $146.5 million as 2017’s summer opener, legging its way out to nearly $390 million domestically.

At this time, Fallen Kingdom is tracking for a performance similar to that Marvel sequel, largely due to a more competitive release slate this year. Jurassic World faced a blockbuster Pixar title virtually head-to-head (as its sequel will this summer), but was the first live action tentpole to open over $100 million after early May’s Avengers: Age of Ultron. This year, it’s widely expected that three films in May alone will break past that mark, potentially softening demand for a mid-June action tentpole (not to mention the other expected hits).

In terms of staying power, Jurassic World never faced a live action film that opened to more than $33 million until its sixth weekend of release (Marvel’s Ant-Man). This time around, Ant-Man and the Wasp will bow in Kingdom‘s third weekend, followed by Dwayne Johnson’s Skyscraper one week later. Both will likely cut into some of Jurassic‘s target audience.

Ultimately, while diminished returns are expected, that’s par for the course for many sequels — especially those following unexpected and historic box office runs with unique circumstances and built-up nostalgia driving them. Taking global performance into consideration, Universal should be sitting pretty with another hugely profitable box office run when Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom hits theaters this summer.

Boxoffice is currently tracking Fallen Kingdom for an opening weekend range of $130-150 million and total domestic range of $325-380 million.


This Week’s Other Update

Deadpool 2 debuted on traditional industry tracking this week to a wide range of expectations. Current metrics suggest the film could open anywhere in between $110 million and $140 million. The sequel’s most recent trailer has generated a welcome uptick in social media buzz, and although it still trails the phenomenal footprint of its predecessor, the surge in interest is significant enough to warrant higher forecasts.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » May 5th, 2018, 11:52 am

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


5/11 Life of the Party 21/54
5/11 Breaking In 13/31

5/18 Deadpool 2 130/312
5/18 Book Club 9.5/30
5/18 Show Dogs 8/25

5/25 Solo: A Star Wars Story 142/390

6/1 Action Point 17/42.5
6/1 Adrift 10/34
6/1 Upgrade n/a

6/8 Ocean's 8 42/145
6/8 Hereditary n/a
6/8 Hotel Artemis n/a

6/15 The Incredibles 2 110/395
6/15 Tag 13/43
6/15 Superfly n/a

6/22 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 139/350

6/29 Uncle Drew 16.5/45
6/29 Sicario: Day of the Soldado 15/39
6/29 The Hustle n/a
6/29 Sanju n/a




Deadpool 2

Opening Weekend Range: $120 – 145 million

Anticipation remains strong for the Merc with a Mouth’s sequel as his second coming on May 18 approaches. Social media metrics remain behind those of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Suicide Squad, and the first Deadpool, while traditional tracking is generally level with the former two of that group.


Solo: A Star Wars Story

Opening Weekend Range: $125 – 150 million (3-day) / $153 – 185 million (4-day)

Following up on our original tracking report over one month ago, the second anthology/spin-off title in the Star Wars universe is generating strong social media buzz with mentions and conversations significantly ahead of Rogue One and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. The young Han film just appeared on traditional tracking this week in line with the pre-release levels of Rogue One (although, it trails the Guardians sequel).

The four-day Memorial weekend release naturally skews comparisons to non-holiday openers, so we’re slightly adjusting tracking figures this week and expanding to include likely ranges. We continue to expect the film will break Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End‘s eleven-year-old Memorial weekend record opening.


Sicario: Day of the Soldado and Uncle Drew

Slated to open on June 29, the Sicario sequel could bring back fans of 2015’s strongly received sleeper hit thanks to returning stars Benicio del Toro and Josh Brolin. Early trailer reactions and social media reception have been positive.

Meanwhile, Uncle Drew is a sleeper candidate with a strong presence on Twitter already two months out. A strong cast including Tiffany Haddish, Lil Rel Howery, Kyrie Irving, and Shaquille O’Neal are driving early buzz for the comedy.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » May 12th, 2018, 6:18 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

5/18 Deadpool 2 133/319
5/18 Book Club 9.5/30
5/18 Show Dogs 8/25

5/25 Solo: A Star Wars Story 142/390

6/1 Action Point 13.5/34
6/1 Adrift 10/34
6/1 Upgrade 3/7.5

6/8 Ocean's 8 42/145
6/8 Hereditary n/a
6/8 Hotel Artemis n/a

6/15 The Incredibles 2 110/395
6/15 Tag 13/43
6/15 Superfly n/a

6/22 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 139/350

6/29 Uncle Drew 16.5/45
6/29 Sicario: Day of the Soldado 15/39
6/29 The Hustle n/a
6/29 Sanju n/a

7/4 The First Purge 20/55
7/6 Ant-Man and the Wasp 84/225




Ant-Man and the Wasp

Opening Weekend Range: $75 – 95 million

The direct follow-up to 2015’s origin story will take the MCU back in time, chronologically speaking, to the period immediately after the events of Captain America: Civil War. Although fans will still be coming off the cliffhanger of Avengers: Infinity War and won’t likely get any answers to burning questions from that blockbuster, goodwill from this sequel’s leggy predecessor and the promise of Evangeline Lilly’s promotion to a co-leading presence should give this film notable momentum going into opening weekend.

Early buzz for the July 6 sequel is very positive with Twitter activity nearly doubling that of the first Ant-Man at the same point, although it has some work ahead of it to catch up to the social media performance of Doctor Strange (part of which can be attributed to the international fame of that film’s star, Benedict Cumberbatch).

Of note: prior sequels in the Marvel universe that followed Avengers films — such as Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Thor: The Dark World, and both Iron Man sequels — enjoyed a range of 30 – 55 percent increases from the opening weekend gross of their relative film predecessors. That’s likely to be the case here, as well, especially if reviews live up to the usual Marvel standard.


Deadpool 2

Opening Weekend Range: $125 – 150 million

Tracking continues to improve for the Merc’s sequel as Twitter activity has finally overtaken that of the first Deadpool at the same point before release, while also now topping Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Thor: Ragnarok.


Solo: A Star Wars Story

Opening Weekend Range: $120 – 150 million (3-day) / $145 – 185 million (4-day)

After an influx of buzz during the confluence of first ticket sales and the “May the 4th” franchise holiday last week, enthusiasm remains a bit more tempered at this point as die hard fans await the first wave of reviews and social media reactions from industry screenings — the latter of which lean very positive so far. Nevertheless, overall Twitter mentions for the film remain significantly ahead of Guardians Vol. 2 and Rogue One, underlining the franchise’s enduring popularity among the masses.


Other Updates

Action Point appeared on traditional tracking for the first time this week with metrics similar to those of Popstar, although it’s too early to gauge the film’s true potential as May’s trio of blockbusters continues to dominate moviegoer interest. Social media traction has stalled for the comedy in recent weeks, though, leading to more conservative expectations. Competition with Deadpool 2 for the R-rated comedy segment is a key factor.
Slated to open Wednesday, July 4, Boxoffice’s first tracking for The First Purge (based on the three-day weekend) is listed in the chart above. Although some diminished returns are expected for the franchise entering its fourth film, this prequel’s first teaser poster ignited strong online chatter.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Postby Shrykespeare » May 19th, 2018, 12:42 pm

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


5/25 Solo: A Star Wars Story 120/330

6/1 Action Point 12/30
6/1 Adrift 10/34
6/1 Upgrade 3/7.5

6/8 Ocean's 8 42/145
6/8 Hereditary n/a
6/8 Hotel Artemis n/a

6/15 The Incredibles 2 115/395
6/15 Tag 13/43
6/15 Superfly n/a

6/22 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 130/327.5

6/29 Uncle Drew 16.5/45
6/29 Sicario: Day of the Soldado 15/39
6/29 The Hustle n/a
6/29 Sanju n/a

7/4 The First Purge 20/55
7/6 Ant-Man and the Wasp 84/225

7/13 Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation 45/155
7/13 Skyscraper 44/128



Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 55 million

Social media activity for the three-quel has been very positive thus far, a strong indicator for an animated title still two months from release. The first two films of the franchise excelled with late September releases in 2012 and 2015, and the move to a mid-summer date recalls the success of multiple Ice Age sequels in years past. The primary competition for Summer Vacation will be straggling audiences from June’s The Incredibles 2, and perhaps more directly, family audiences still checking out Marvel’s Ant-Man and the Wasp.


Skyscraper

Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 60 million

Dwayne Johnson’s star power is almost impossible to argue against right now after the blockbuster success of Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and this past April’s Rampage, just to name his most recent two. Early trailer reactions for this original action pic — which has drawn favorable comparisons to Die Hard — have been positive and indicate appeal similar to that of the star’s 2015 hit, San Andreas. Portraying a wounded veteran in this film could further help it earn appeal across middle America. The film’s main disadvantage at the box office: direct competition from fellow actioners The Equalizer 2 (July 20) and July 27’s Mission: Impossible – Fallout.


Solo: A Star Wars Story

Opening Weekend Range: $115 – 140 million (3-day) / $140 – 170 million (4-day)

As cautioned previously, early critical reactions from the film’s first screenings are a key factor in this week’s updated tracking. Although the majority of critics have given the film a positive review so far, social media buzz over the past week dipped sharply below that of Rogue One and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 during their comparable pre-release windows. This came after Solo had been far ahead of both films in prior weeks.

Deadpool 2’s imminent release and the continued success of Avengers: Infinity War are dominating conversation among both casual audiences and adult male fans, which could be contributing to the weaker footprint in tandem with reviews that, unfortunately, aren’t as broadly enthusiastic as they were for the previous three films. Forecasts remain volatile for now, but it’s possible that Solo rebounds next week when its opening and the holiday weekend are first and foremost on moviegoers’ minds.
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