Future Tracking From Exhibitors

[Buscemi]

Win Win and Cedar Rapids are hardly a new Malick movie are they, though? I'd be surprised if it didn't go wide, why release it in the summer if there was no intention ever to take it wide, especially with the cast involved.

But they were critically acclaimed comedies with leads familiar to mainstream audiences (Paul Giamatti and Ed Helms, respectively).

[undeadmonkey]

not as familiar as sean penn and brad pitt though

[Chienfantome]

Did anyone expect Forrest Gump to gross over $300 million and pass The Lion King when it came out?

Forrest Gump was an ambitious epic human story with the hottest actor in town by a very successful and popular director, The Lion King was the new movie by a Disney that was getting more and more popular film after film. What could possibly make you compare a romantic comedy like Larry Crowne to those two films ? I mean, Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts clearly are not the box-office draws they used to be anymore.
Larry Crowne can definitely be successful, but $200 million seems like an audacious expectation for me

[Shrykespeare]

Agreed. I see it doing Public Enemies numbers, no more.

[Buscemi]

Did anyone expect Forrest Gump to gross over $300 million and pass The Lion King when it came out?

Forrest Gump was an ambitious epic human story with the hottest actor in town by a very successful and popular director, The Lion King was the new movie by a Disney that was getting more and more popular film after film. What could possibly make you compare a romantic comedy like Larry Crowne to those two films ? I mean, Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts clearly are not the box-office draws they used to be anymore.
Larry Crowne can definitely be successful, but $200 million seems like an audacious expectation for me

Well, Larry Crowne is a human story (40-something adult returns to college after being laid off) and it's got almost the same release date as Forrest Gump. The romance angle is secondary to the human side. Audiences are going to want at least one feel good movie that isn't in the field of numerous sequels and 3-D movies. This is that movie.

[Chienfantome]

I think you have too much faith in audiences, Boosch

[numbersix]

But Forrest Gump had an obvious 4-quadrant appeal. I don't see Larry Crowne doing much for the teen crowd. That said I still think it's gonna be big, and $100mil is possible and it could go up to 150

[Shrykespeare]

BoxOffice.com most recent projections (7/8 films added):


5/20 Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger TIdes 100/260

5/26 Kung Fu Panda 2 107/320
5/26 The Hangover Part II 95/250

6/3 X-Men: First Class 70/155

6/10 Super 8 42/135
6/10 Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer 7/23

6/17 Green Lantern 43/120
6/17 Mr. Popper's Penguins 20/65

6/24 Cars 2 80/305
6/24 Bad Teacher 13/42

7/1 Transformers: Dark of the Moon 164/350 (4-day OW)
7/1 Larry Crowne 22/85 (4-day OW)
7/1 Monte Carlo 9/22 (4-day OW)

7/8 Zookeeper 33/125
7/8 Horrible Bosses 18/58

[Buscemi]

Horrible Bosses could do a little better than 18/58. Some people are calling it the sleeper hit of the summer and trailer reaction has been great.

[silversurfer19]

I'm not sure how it will do, it's opening against The Zookeeper which will obviously take most of its audience, while it is also having to deal with the second weekend of Transformers and then Harry Potter the following weekend. It may do well and break out, but I think it may just be a little too crowded and if anything gets lost in the mix, I bet it will be the one.

[Buscemi]

If any movie gets lost in the shuffle, it's Friends With Benefits. No Strings Attached came out back in January with the same concept and bigger names and did well. Also, I expect weaker reviews on this one.

And Monte Carlo is a bust that will be the flop of July. The plot is a wholesale ripoff of The Lizzie McGuire Movie (American teens visit Europe and one of them gets mistaken for a famous European played by the same actress) and the trailers and posters put emphasis on the worst jokes (we get it, she's from Texas so enough with the cowboy boots).

[Shrykespeare]

BoxOffice.com most recent projections (7/15 films added):


5/26 Kung Fu Panda 2 105/310
5/26 The Hangover Part II 98/255

6/3 X-Men: First Class 70/155

6/10 Super 8 42/135
6/10 Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer 7/23

6/17 Green Lantern 43/120
6/17 Mr. Popper's Penguins 20/65

6/24 Cars 2 80/305
6/24 Bad Teacher 13/42

6/29 Transformers: Dark of the Moon 115/360 (Fri-Sun, presumably)
7/1 Larry Crowne 22/85 (ditto)
7/1 Monte Carlo 9/22 (ditto)

7/8 Zookeeper 33/125
7/8 Horrible Bosses 18/58

7/15 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2 142/330
7/15 Winnie the Pooh 8/28

[W]

Ouch... Pooh 8/28? I don't expect $100 M, but not even $50 let alone $30 M?

[Shrykespeare]

I hold out hope that it will do better... many have admitted that it's notoriously difficult to accurately track kids' movies, for all the obvious reasons.

[Buscemi]

Winnie the Pooh was a disaster internationally and advertising has been light.