Future Tracking From Exhibitors

[Chienfantome]

otherwise, Fox would have used the much superior Le Mans '66 title that explains the story better

Yeah, in Europe most countries will use the title "Le Mans '66".

[NicodemustheSage]

If "Terminator: Dark Date" and "Midway" shallow as predicted, I'm done. I might have a hard time scraping $700M together this season.

--Nico.

[Buscemi2]

I think Terminator's going to depend on reviews and word of mouth. If it's the worthy follow-up fans have been hoping for, it could do $100 million. If not, it will make less than Genisys.

And from seeing the new trailer for Midway, I think that could be an even bigger flop that I thought. Has there been a successful flight-driven war film since Pearl Harbor? It could end up being both the most jingoistic film and the cheesiest film of 2019.

[Brockster]

I'm getting Deja Vu...

11/1 Terminator: Dark Fate 38/85

Was hoping for better than this for the sake of my draft! I had it pegged for $110M when I made my draft board.

Although I admit...I felt a little gross after I drafted it. Like, ew, this isn't going to end well.

[Buscemi2]

Has anyone else been following the stories about a potential copycat killer with Joker? Personally, I'm convinced this some mass hysteria the media is cooking up so they can say "I told you so" in the chance that it actually happens. If anything, it's like some irresponsible figures with power want a repeat of Aurora by continuously bringing it up.

I'm not going to predict anything but I feel it's going to end up like the Area 51 raid: lots of noise followed by absolutely nothing.

[W]

Yeah, it's nothing. When something like Aurora happens you only get the immediate backlash. You don't see the actual cause until all the facts come out much later, so it's easier to blame it on what is in front of you at the time. By the time you see the kid's slow descent into mental illness (in that particular case) they've moved on to the next kneejerk reaction. It's remembered later and they need time to fill...

Just after Columbine there was a story on one of the major news outlets about a kid that threatened to shoot up his school. This kid looked like a thirteen year old Milton from Office Space. He had no weapons, no plans, nothing but they run the story on 60 Minutes/48 Hours/etc. They said the reason was because he listened to "violent" music like Weird Al and played something like "The Night Santa Went Crazy" to back up their claim. It's clear to any rational, sane individual that can think for themselves that this kid was being bullied, snapped, and said some things he shouldn't have. The kid didn't have anything else he was into they could blame, so they blamed one of the sweetest, most loving guys in music. Like Marilyn Manson said post-Columbine if they'd have listened to this particular kid... Instead you arrest the kid and do nothing to stop the root cause. I can't find the story anywhere online now but you can be certain his life was ruined.

You could use the upcoming movie to talk about mental health issues and possibly re-examine Aurora and what could have been done to prevent it. I don't think that'll happen, though.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

From what I've read about the movie from script reviews, I think this movie is going to lean harder into the Incel/Red Pill movement than we think. I doubt there will be any shootings at actual theaters, but I could see those type of losers using this new Joker as a figurehead of sorts.

I don't think that's any fault of the movie's, these type of people are going to find reasons to justify their shit behavior any way they can.

[numbersix]

The script definitely looks at the incel crowd and arguably uses Joker as a figurehead for them. I can't see how you'd watch the movie and see it as promoting violence, but I guess some will do that, just like some might have after watching The Dark Knight. The film isn't to blame, and its intention isn't to inspire.

[Shrykespeare]

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

10/4 Joker 101/210

10/11 Gemini Man 28/85
10/11 The Addams Family 23/88
10/11 Jexi 7.5/20

10/18 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 40/120
10/18 Zombieland 2: Double Tap 30/77

10/25 Black and Blue 12/35
10/25 Countdown 14/33

11/1 Terminator: Dark Fate 38/85
11/1 Motherless Brooklyn n/a
11/1 Arctic Dogs 7/24.5

11/8 Doctor Sleep 25/92
11/8 Last Christmas 15/80
11/8 Midway 13/47
11/8 Playing With Fire 8/33

11/15 Ford v Ferrari 32/115
11/15 Charlie's Angels 29/78
11/15 The Good Liar n/a

11/22 Frozen 2 125/450
11/22 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 19/105
11/22 21 Bridges 10/34





Frozen II
Opening Weekend Range: $115 – 145 million

PROS:

The original film was an undisputed phenomenon, earning over $400 million domestically and $1.27 billion worldwide on the back of an enormously popular soundtrack and high repeat viewings. Frozen solidified the reemergence of Disney’s in-house animation studios as a top-tier powerhouse and remains the highest grossing original animated film of all time.

Trailer reactions and social media metrics are strong once again for this sequel, earning trend comparisons to recent Disney/Pixar sequels like Incredibles 2, Finding Dory, and Toy Story 4.

As the first tentpole animated release to open since July’s The Lion King, demand for a family-driven event should be very high by the time this opens in November.

With a six-year gap between this sequel and its predecessor, there could be room for audience expansion to include kids who were too young (or not born yet) to see the first pic in theaters.

After their unprecedented success across a variety of brands in recent years, the Disney name is virtually an automatic selling point for parents and kids once again. This franchise in particular proved to become a major source of merchandising success, which is often an indicator of sequel demand for kid-driven properties.

CONS:

Animated sequels have generally trended downward from their predecessors’ box office runs recently, with notable examples including The LEGO Movie franchise, The Secret Life of Pets 2, and The Angry Birds Movie 2. That being said, Disney releases like The Incredibles 2, Toy Story 4, and Ralph Breaks the Internet have proven to be exceptions.

The biggest X factor in determining how big this sequel could truly be is whether or not they capture lightning in a bottle again, particularly when it comes to the film’s new songs and the ability to generate as much audience retention in the weeks after release as the first film did. Considering the pop culture impact of “Let It Go” six years back, that’s a big ask.

With a debut one week before a major holiday weekend in the U.S., some families could opt to wait and see the film until they’re on break from work and school — meaning any goal of achieving a record November opening weekend will be a challenge. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire owns that title with $158.1 million, while the highest opening animated title is 2004’s The Incredibles ($70.5 million).

Long term, this sequel will face stiff competition for family audiences in Jumanji: The Next Level, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, and Spies In Disguise come December/early January. The original Frozen‘s primary source of competition in the same window was a less formidable combo of The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug.


A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Opening Weekend Range: $16 – 21 million

PROS:

No one in the business has more goodwill for delivering heartfelt, crowd-pleasing, every-man performances than Tom Hanks. With him taking on the role of one of pop culture’s most celebrated and inspirational personalities (Fred Rogers), we’re high on the potential for appeal to a variety of audiences.

As one of the most successful documentaries in recent memory, last year’s Won’t You Be My Neighbor? underscored the lasting impression of “Mister Rogers” on multiple generations and the desire for stories of kindness — one that should play very well during the holiday season.

CONS:

Opening against Frozen II may soften upfront demand among female audiences, which we expect to be a significant part of this film’s draw in the long run.


21 Bridges
Opening Weekend Range: $9 – 14 million

PROS:

Chadwick Boseman’s presence is a notable advantage coming off the massive success of his role as Black Panther in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

As the counter-programmer among this weekend’s new releases, there could be some upside with targeting adult male viewers.

CONS:

Competition from other male-driven pics in November — such as Terminator: Dark Fate and Ford v Ferrari — will present a challenge.

[Buscemi2]

That Arctic Dogs number is bonkers. I don't even think it makes $5 million total.

[Shrykespeare]

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

10/11 Gemini Man 28/85
10/11 The Addams Family 23/88
10/11 Jexi 6.5/17

10/18 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 40/120
10/18 Zombieland 2: Double Tap 30/77

10/25 Black and Blue 11/32
10/25 Countdown 14/33

11/1 Terminator: Dark Fate 38/85
11/1 Motherless Brooklyn n/a
11/1 Arctic Dogs 7/24.5

11/8 Doctor Sleep 25/92
11/8 Last Christmas 15/80
11/8 Midway 13/47
11/8 Playing With Fire 8/33

11/15 Ford v Ferrari 32/115
11/15 Charlie's Angels 29/78
11/15 The Good Liar n/a

11/22 Frozen 2 125/450
11/22 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 19/105
11/22 21 Bridges 10/34

11/27 Knives Out 17.5/70
11/27 Queen & Slim /30






Knives Out
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 20 million (Friday through Sunday)

PROS:

Boasting an impressive ensemble cast led by Daniel Craig, Chris Evans, Michael Shannon, Ana de Armas, Jamie Lee Curtis, Toni Collette, Lakeith Stanfield, and more, the collective star power of accomplished actors on display could be a strong attraction for a diverse range of adult audiences. The “whodunit?” premise of the film is also one that helped the fellow ensemble-driven Murder on the Orient Express break out to a $102.8 million domestic run two years ago.

Rian Johnson is no stranger to successful original stories after his success with Looper, Brick, and several episodes of the iconic television series Breaking Bad. His return to original storytelling here is an encouraging element, especially given the film’s stellar 99 percent Rotten Tomatoes score following early industry screenings.

Early social media trends for the film’s trailers reveal notable enthusiasm for the film as a counter-programmer that could play well through the holiday season alongside Hollywood’s big franchise titles in December.

CONS:

Those strong early reviews highlight some less-than-subtle comparisons to current social and political goings-on, which could put off some moviegoers seeking escapism of a more neutral flavor.

Johnson, unfortunately, drew the social media ire of some Star Wars fans with his unique storytelling choices in The Last Jedi two years ago, although we expect any splash effect on this film to be minimal (or non-existent) given the significantly different target audience.


Queen & Slim
Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 12 million (Friday through Sunday)

PROS:

Daniel Kaluuya’s starring role is an early selling point following his breakout work in 2017’s Get Out, while Universal’s distribution and marketing could be major advantages for the kind of film that is generally given modest promotion from smaller/indie studios.

Potential award season contention could elevate this film’s lifespan at the box office, particularly as a counter-programmer not facing any direct genre competition upon release. Arthouse crowds are likely to be a strong driver.

CONS:

Recent performances by similar dramas like If Beale Street Could Talk and The Hate U Give have us leaning cautious for now. A strong award season push could elevate that outlook, though.

Although this offers a very different kind of film, adult audiences will already have several other high profile choices in the form of Ford v Ferrari, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, and Knives Out, among other holdovers and late December releases.

[Shrykespeare]

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


10/25 Black and Blue 7.5/20
10/25 Countdown 10/23

11/1 Terminator: Dark Fate 38/89.5
11/1 Motherless Brooklyn 7/24
11/1 Arctic Dogs 6/22

11/8 Doctor Sleep 25/92
11/8 Last Christmas 15/80
11/8 Midway 13/47
11/8 Playing With Fire 8/33

11/15 Ford v Ferrari 32/115
11/15 Charlie's Angels 28/78
11/15 The Good Liar n/a

11/22 Frozen 2 125/450
11/22 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 19/105
11/22 21 Bridges 10/32

11/27 Knives Out 17.5/70
11/27 Queen & Slim /30

12/6 PLAYMOBIL: The Movie n/a

12/13 Jumanji: The Next Level 70/265
12/13 Richard Jewell 11/70
12/13 Black Christmas 12/32





Jumanji: The Next Level
Opening Weekend Range: $66 – 76 million

PROS:

The previous film, Welcome to the Jungle, took the box office by storm with its $404 million domestic / $962 million global run two years ago, proving to be one of the leggiest (and most unexpected) blockbuster phenomenons in recent memory.

With the principal cast returning — along with a few new faces — and the promise of more comedy-driven adventure, family appeal should again be very strong. Without a specific fan base, some back-loading (though not as much as the first film) should be expected as said families make plans for the extended holiday corridor closer to the end of the month (not to mention the following week’s Star Wars release).

Although Frozen II debuts three weeks earlier, this represents the first live-action release of the holiday season with strong appeal to all four quadrants.

CONS:

It’ll be challenging to duplicate the surprise run of 2017’s predecessor, in large part because that film had a fresh hook and was able to capitalize on the mixed reception of Star Wars: The Last Jedi at the time. Once again facing a Star Wars blockbuster, The Rise of Skywalker, this time around will likely split some of that family audience if that film inspires stronger word of mouth — not to mention contending with potential staying power from Frozen II. Early social media buzz is healthy overall, although cautious on some level given the adoption of the same body-switch hook as the previous film.

Comparison-wise, similar breakout franchises like Night at the Museum, The Chronicles of Narnia, The Hobbit, and Jurassic World saw sharp drops in box office returns with their second installments (although this is “officially” the third Jumanji film). In that same breath, The Next Level still looks poised to be a major financial success and should best the 1995 original’s inflation-adjusted domestic gross of $210 million ($100.5 million originally).


Black Christmas
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million

PROS:

This latest remake of the 1974 cult classic should attract slasher fans, especially given its “Friday the 13th” release date which has proven to be a boon for horror fan turnouts at cinemas.

Universal’s backing and marketing arm should be a strength here in a similar way as it was for Krampus in 2015, particularly given another obvious holiday tie-in.

CONS:

Broad audience appeal could be challenging given the proximity to a number of tentpoles and the potential staying power of early November’s Doctor Sleep. Still, this isn’t a film that needs to become a blockbuster to become a hit.


Richard Jewell
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million

PROS:

The first trailer has generated encouraging buzz since debuting last month, suggesting this could be another crowd-pleaser with a long holiday corridor to take advantage of.

Clint Eastwood’s directorial presence along with a prominent ensemble cast and an underdog story should combine to help this film attract audiences in both major cities and often undervalued middle America areas.

CONS:

Proximity to other award season candidates might stifle some of the full potential here, but in general, most should be able to coexist.

[Buscemi2]

I saw a bunch of ads for Playing with Fire this weekend while I was in Kansas City. This could end up playing a little better than expected. I'm thinking 15/45.

Meanwhile, I wouldn't be surprised if men's rights people and incels tried to kill Black Christmas as they couldn't kill Star Wars. If you look at certain elements in the trailer, you'll see that the film is very critical of the men's rights movement. And I've found that said people cannot take criticism well.

[Screen203]

I saw a bunch of ads for Playing with Fire this weekend while I was in Kansas City. This could end up playing a little better than expected. I'm thinking 15/45.

Meanwhile, I wouldn't be surprised if men's rights people and incels tried to kill Black Christmas as they couldn't kill Star Wars. If you look at certain elements in the trailer, you'll see that the film is very critical of the men's rights movement. And I've found that said people cannot take criticism well.

I don't know about Playing With Fire. The marketing seems desperate (recently I saw a commercial for the film in theaters which had the green band before it, so it's probably considered a trailer, that basically had John Cena and Keegan-Michael Key begging families to come see it in a way that almost seemed like the celebrity-endorsed charity ads on TV, but for the movie instead of something actually worth donating to like clean water for third-world countries, stopping global warming, or preventing animal abuse.) Can't blame them because the movie looks atrocious.

And the original Black Christmas was very progressive, at least for it's time, and is arguably, by 70's standards, a feminist film. The complaints online about the trailer spoiling the movie might be an attempt to derail it, considering other Blumhouse productions spoil their entire movies, even acclaimed ones like Get Out and The Gift, and there hasn't been much backlash online about the spoilers (although MRA groups likely missed the point of The Gift, not seeing that Rebecca Hall is the main character, and both Gordo's and Simon's actions are vile and not endorsed by the film, although incels probably watched the film because it featured violence against women). On the other hand, honestly I'm suprised they didn't hate Get Out, but that film's criticism of stereotypical white liberals who are actually regressive probably neutered that somehow. But the audience Black Christmas is aimed at is the opposite of the alt-right.

[Shrykespeare]

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

11/15 Ford v Ferrari - 32 OW, 110-140 total
11/15 Charlie's Angels - 18 OW, 45-70 total
11/15 The Good Liar - 7.5 OW, 35-50 total

11/22 Frozen II - 125 OW, 420-520 total
11/22 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood - 19 OW, 85-115 total
11/22 21 Bridges - 10 OW, 30-45 total

11/27 Knives Out - 18 OW, 70-105 total
11/27 Queen & Slim - 7.5 OW, 23-33 total

12/6 PLAYMOBIL: The Movie - 4.5 OW, 10-20 total

12/13 Jumanji: The Next Level - 70 OW, 250-300 total
12/13 Richard Jewell - 13 OW, 60-80 total
12/13 Black Christmas - 13 OW, 28-38 total

12/20 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - 200 OW, 550-750 total
12/20 Cats - 14 OW, 60-120 total
12/20 Bombshell (expansion) - 5 OW, 30-45 total

12/25 Little Women - 20 OW, 80-120 total
12/25 Spies in Disguise - 16 OW, 70-110 total
12/25 Uncut Gems n/a

1/3 The Grudge - 14 OW, 25-45 total