Future Tracking From Exhibitors

[Brockster]

cha ching!

[Shrykespeare]

BoxOffice has X-Men: First Class having a $70M OW, but tailing off rapidly and only making $155M total.

Meanwhile, they have Rio at $37/$140 and Scream 4 at $52/$115. That seems a little unusual... I know animated movies have great legs, but could Rio really make 4x its OW? I think it will open stronger than that.

[undeadmonkey]

that's not very good legs, the trailer looks awesome for first class, if the movie is any good, it will make a lot more. That's a huge opening for scream 4, would make it the biggest so far of the year.

[numbersix]

Shryke, How to Train Your Drago had a 5x multiplier so it is possible, though somewhat unlikely. I see Rio opening at about $40 and finishing at about $120 mil.

As for Scream, I'm beginning to think that it's not going to come close to a $50 opening. If the reviews are atrocious it could kill the film (then again, I suspect there won't be any press screenings).

[Buscemi]

Also, the director personally trashing his own film is never a good sign.

They are probably low on X-Men solely because this one won't have Wolverine (which is actually a good thing as the other four films have been Wolverine's show).

[Shrykespeare]

The 6/10/11 films have just been added to the Future Projections page at BoxOffice.com.

6/10 - Super 8, 42/135
6/10 - Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer, 7/23
6/3 - X-Men: First Class, 70/155
5/26 - Hangover 2, 92/245 (4-day OW)
5/26 - Kung Fu Panda 2, 107/320 (4-day OW)
5/20 - POTC: OST, 110/300
5/13 - Priest, 13/31
5/13 - Bridesmaids, 15/45
5/6 - Jumping the Broom, 11/30
5/6 - Thor, 73/208
4/29 - Fast Five, 67/140
4/29 - Hoodwinked Too, 10/33
4/22 - Madea's Big Happy Family, 30/68
4/22 - Water For Elephants, 24/65
4/22 - African Cats, 8/25

[Brockster]

From Deadline Hollywood:

'Fast Five' Runs Over 'Thor 3D' In Australia

Well, this is a surprising start for the first two big films of Summer 2011. Marvel/Disney's Thor 3D distributor Paramount opened on Thursday in Down Under thinking its Norse God would steal Fast Five's thunder from Universal, which opened its street car racing pic the day before. Didn't happen. Day Two of Fast Five beat Thor by 38% -- $2.02 million U.S. dollars vs $1.5 million U.S. dollars -- even though both films are playing in the same number of theaters (220), Fast Five is only 2D so can't command the higher 3D ticket prices, and Thor's lead Chris Hemsworth is Australian. Universal is crowing that its Day 2 of Fast Five was ahead of Iron Man 2 and Spider-Man 3 and its cume there is now $4.43 million U.S. dollars. Meanwhile, also today, Fast Five's previews in Korea are running 34% bigger than Fast And Furious (the fourquel in the franchise). In North America, Fast Five opens April 29 and Thor on May 6.

What do you guys make of this? Do you think this will translate here in the States?

[silversurfer19]

Aussies and Kiwis are 'hooners' obsessed with cars so it doesn't really surprise me too much. Fast Five has been advertised to death for ages down here, much more so than Thor which has had nothing more than a few billboard posters at bus stops. Granted Thor isn't released in NZ for another week but I doubt initially it won't be able to compete with Fast Five, but will probably beat it over the course of it's run, as I see Fast Five as very much of a front loaded movie.

[Buscemi]

I was thinking that it was the Asian population that was making it big, seeing that one of the actors is Asian. Also, it's a five-day weekend there so there will be some high numbers.

[Brockster]

Even though the lead is Australian they still didn't market it much? That is surprising!

BTW, what are "hooners?"

[silversurfer19]

I didn't even know he was Australian, so I guess the average movie goer wouldn't have a clue and they certainly haven't marketed it as such.

And 'hooners' are boy racers who drive around suburban areas with souped up engines and blue neon lights, the typical Pimp My Ride style. You can start driving at 15 for some reason here, so pretty much every adolescent boy is one, and probably emphasises why Fast Five was so successful. And if there is an Asian factor that may also have some influence as both NZ and Australia have fairly large Asian populations.

[undeadmonkey]

haha, you got 'hooners' here in texas too, although they tend to go the truck route instead of cars.

Fast and Furious opened to $70M here. So i expect Fast Five to do at least $60M. Which i think is what Thor will drum up as well. In the end though, i expect Thor to have the higher number (unless Thor sucks, but it seems to be getting decent reviews). Fast Five will drop fast, like they all do. It has a specific audience, the specific audience will all go see it adn they will all forgot about it a few weeks later.

[englishozzy]

I tend to agree with Surfer on this one, i have hardly seen any advertising for Thor where everywhere i look is posters for Fast Five. I dont think it will reflect too much on the box-office in the US though. Ive been screening the Australian box-office for a few years now and Australians as a whole tend to go to the cinemas for an easy experience, anything that doesnt really explain itself in the trailers or has no advertisement or hype doesnt seem to do very well over here. These are the top 10 films of all-time in terms of earnings;

1. Avatar $115,317,645
2. Titanic $57,645,827
3. Shrek 2 $50,388,327
4. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King $49,370,354
5. Crocodile Dundee $47,707,045
6. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring $47,429,619
7. The Dark Knight $46,089,622
8. The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers $45,645,259
9. Harry Potter and the Philospher's Stone $42,346,216
10. Toy Story 3 $42,196,833

We had films like It's Complicated, Jumper and 27 Dresses make more money than film like Wanted, Taken and Slumdog Millionaire which i class as far more superior films.

[Shrykespeare]

BoxOffice.com most recent projections:


5/6 Thor 68/220
5/6 Something Borrowed 13/37
5/6 Jumping the Broom 12/35

5/13 Bridesmaids 17/60
5/13 Priest 13/31

5/20 Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger TIdes 105/280

5/26 Kung Fu Panda 2 107/320
5/26 The Hangover Part II 95/250

6/3 X-Men: First Class 70/155

6/10 Super 8 42/135
6/10 Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer 7/23

6/17 Green Lantern 43/120
6/17 Mr. Popper's Penguins 20/65

6/24 Cars 2 80/305
6/24 Bad Teacher 13/42

[Brockster]

Maybe I'm just buying into the hype, but I can see Super 8 doing MUCH better than that.