Future Tracking From Exhibitors

[Buscemi]

Thor will gross at least The Incredible Hulk numbers and with 3-D could get to $200 million (also if Clash of the Titans could get to $150 million with terrible reviews, this should bring similar numbers plus the built-in audience of Marvel fanboys). And with Kenneth Branagh directing, it could be one of the better reviewed Marvel titles. Captain America, on the other hand, will be the flop of 2011.

With Fast Five, it's the same concept as the others but in Brazil (while using the plot of the unmade Italian Job sequel). The last time they did a Fast and the Furious film outside of the US, it was Tokyo Drift (where the franchise should have ended as it had run out of gas by them) which grossed only $60 million. Also, adding Dwayne Johnson to the cast is a sign of desperation. In a recent case, Universal adding Jessica Alba and expanding Owen Wilson's small role to a lead in Little Fockers did not translate to good numbers. In fact, it screamed desperation (the same reason why scenes with Dustin Hoffman were added at the last minute because Universal wanted to improve the test screening scores).

Also, the $65 million number on The Hangover Part II is a three-day. The five-day will probably be $85-95 million before a fast drop (possibly 65-70% in the second week).

[W]

People know that The Rock is in this one. I don't know if anyone is going into Meet the Little Fockers thinking "They expanded Owen Wilson!"

Fast Five will be big, Thor will be big. Pirates will be big. Panda will be big. Hangover II will be big. All $150-225 M-ish range. None of them will be in the high $200 M's though unless it's Pirates. There's only three or four films the rest of the summer that are going to be relatively big so they should have a large opening, fairly big drops, but a long shelf life.

HSX predictions (OW/4 Weeks):
Fast Five $56.4/$152.3
Thor $72.4/$195.5
Pirates $88.3/$238.5
Hangover II $80.4/$217
Panda II $68.9/$186

[Shrykespeare]

Box Office's first predictions for the 5/6 movies:

Thor - 77/208
Something Borrowed - 13/39
Jumping the Broom - 8/22

[Buscemi]

I wouldn't be surprised if Jumping The Broom outgrossed Something Borrowed. How many times has Kate Hudson played a bride or an irresponsible love interest now?

[Buscemi]

New Long Range Estimates:

Priest 13/31 (not too surprised here, many were burned by the same star and director's Legion)
Bridesmaids 15/45 (the SXSW audience reception was very positive but critical word was average, it could be a word of mouth hit or reviews could kill it and audiences will dismiss it as a Hangover clone or not know what audience the film is for)

http://www.boxoffice.com/featured_stori ... d-priest-2

Tracking Up:

Source Code (18/57)
Soul Surfer (expecting better legs, 5/18)
Water For Elephants (22/60)

Tracking Down:

Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2 (now expected to gross less than the original, 22/62)
Sucker Punch (now expected to gross less than Legend of the Guardians, 19/48)
Hop (16/65)
Insidious (8/18)
Your Highness (possibly down to early reviews mentioning how much the advertising lies, 15/38)

[Buscemi]

New edition with Pirates of the Caribbean (expecting 110/300 and audiences to forget At World's End and not ask why they are making another one despite At World's End concluding the story).

http://www.boxoffice.com/featured_stori ... nger-tides

Tracking Up:

Hop (20/80 from 16/65)
Insidious (9/20 from 8/18)
Soul Surfer (7/20 from 5/18)
Water For Elephants (24/65 from 22/60)

Tracking Down:

Source Code (16/50 from 18/57)
Thor (73/208 from 77/208)

[Buscemi]

I'm thinking that Madea's Big Happy Family will flop. The trailers and posters have been awful (especially the parody posters, which all give a completely different title to the film*) and the fact that this has the least recognizable cast are strikes against it.


*- I mean seriously, is it called Madea's Big Happy Family or True Grits or Black Swans or The Godmother or Georgia Shore or something else completely?

[Shrykespeare]

What a weekend BoxOffice.com is projecting for May 26. They predict that Kung Fu Panda 2 will open with $107 million (4-day), opposite The Hangover 2's $92 million.

[undeadmonkey]

those are some huge numbers. in the march leagues, does the 3 day count or the 4?

[Shrykespeare]

the 4. Both titles are debuting on Thursday, so the weekend is from Thursday-Sunday.

[Buscemi]

The Hangover Part II won't do that well. Opening day should be good but it will drop quickly once audiences see it's nothing more than a remake of the first film.

The ceiling on opening weekend (4-day) is $75 million and the final's ceiling is $180 million.

[Brockster]

I disagree...I think the Hangover will do really well. They are striking the coal while it's still hot. I think you are giving audiences too much credit Busc...all they want to do is go see a movie that makes them laugh and if it's just a remake of the first film, like you say, then they will love it, since they loved the first one that made them laugh. I think sometimes we all forget that the majority of the movie going public are not movie snobs like us (hence Paul Blart, for a good example).

BTW Busc, your avatar and subsequent quote make me laugh every time I log on. Kudos.

[undeadmonkey]

i agree with Brock, even if number two is very similar it will do well (isn't that really the point of a sequel anyway, to revisit something similar). It might not get as much repeat business as the first (depends on if it's as funny as the first), but everyone that liked the first one will definitely want to see this.

[Buscemi]

I thought the point of a sequel was to expand the story and further develop characters from the previous installment.

[undeadmonkey]

well if you want to get technical, the point of a sequel is to make easy money from something that has worked once already.