Future Tracking From Exhibitors

[silversurfer19]

And I just don't see X Men having such a poor multiple either. I reckon $150m is being very conservative, that should be its absolute minimum. Maybe I'm wrong and it'll be another Hulk, but X Men are a huge franchise, one of the biggest in comics, and I don't see it getting ousted by everything else by quite so much.

[undeadmonkey]

even the almost universally hated Wolverine made $180M. Maybe wolverine really is the biggest draw in the x-men films, (personally i don't think so), but i guess we will find out soon if his absence is going to hurt or not be a factor.

[Buscemi]

The comic book fanboys have been wanting an X-Men film without Wolverine for a while now (at least since X-Men: The Last Stand). As the date gets closer, we will find out if audiences are in agreement.

[Shrykespeare]

BoxOffice.com most recent projections:


5/13 Bridesmaids 17/60
5/13 Priest 12/28

5/20 Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger TIdes 100/260

5/26 Kung Fu Panda 2 107/320
5/26 The Hangover Part II 95/250

6/3 X-Men: First Class 70/155

6/10 Super 8 42/135
6/10 Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer 7/23

6/17 Green Lantern 43/120
6/17 Mr. Popper's Penguins 20/65

6/24 Cars 2 80/305
6/24 Bad Teacher 13/42

7/1 Transformers: Dark of the Moon 164/350 (4-day OW)
7/1 Larry Crowne 22/85 (4-day OW)
7/1 Monte Carlo 9/22 (4-day OW)

[Brockster]

Wow, coming way down on Pirates 4!?!? 320M for Kung Fu Panda 2??? 305M for Cars 2???? Hmmm...doubt creeping in for these estimates.

[undeadmonkey]

I don't think Kung Fu Panda will get to $300M, and although i don't think Cars 2 will either, it does have a chance of it. Remember, when films get to these kind of numbers, it all depends on if the movies are good or not, because there are only so many people who are curious in the first place so it depends on word of mouth and repeat business to get so high. Not sure about transformers either, i would of thought that the bad taste of transformers 2 would create a bigger backlash. maybe i'm wrong and people are willing to give a second chance?

[Buscemi]

Dark of the Moon basically looks like Battle: Los Angeles in Chicago. Also, the new female lead actually looks like she'll be worse than Megan Fox (all she does in the trailers is blank stare). I'm going to say it will stop at $325 million.

[numbersix]

Oh yeah, that girl in Transformers 3 looks like a complete idiot. She makes Megan Fox look like a brain surgeon! But I've noticed the responses to the trailer have been very positive (it helps that it's mostly in slo-motion so you you can SEE what's going on) and Bay and LaBoeuf have been going for the "2 sucked but 3 rocks" slant. I think Transformers 3 will make 300-350 mil.

Kung Fu Panda made 200 MIL and I think the sequel will improve on that. It's the first animated movie of this summer with Cars 2 being the only real competition a month later. That's 4 weeks to kick ass at the box office. 320 is a bit high but 280-300 is a possibility. Cars 2 could be massive, even bigger. UDM, you say a film at this level depends on whether it's "good or not", but I don't buy that. Not when Alice in Wonderland was the 2nd highest grossing film and had mixed reviews and poor word of mouth, or Transformers 2 was the 2nd highest grossing film of 2009. I think it's a combination of marketing (both direct and indirect), previous success if its a franchise (which is why Transformers 3 won't make more than 2), a good time of year, and other issues that are beyond me.

I also think those estimates are a little low on Super 8 and a little high on Green Lantern in terms of opening weekend.

[Buscemi]

Green Lantern should do a little better than flop status (I'll say $135 million). The trailers at least don't make it look like an Iron Man ripoff anymore.

And Larry Crowne should get to $100 million and maybe even $150-200 million. I expect reviews and word of mouth to be great (also, it's the only big film in the market for adult audiences).

[Chienfantome]

Larry Crowne, $150-200 million ? Optimistic is a soft word to say the least

[Buscemi]

Did anyone expect Forrest Gump to gross over $300 million and pass The Lion King when it came out?

[Brockster]

I would have thought "Tree of Life" would go wide after its limited release, but I'm not seeing it anywhere online...anybody have an idea of the chances of that happening?

[Buscemi]

Fox Searchlight hasn't been going wide on things lately (Cedar Rapids and Win Win never went wide despite having potential and the numbers to do so and they waited almost three months to go wide on 127 Hours) but a wide date on June 3rd or June 10th would definitely make sense.

[silversurfer19]

Win Win and Cedar Rapids are hardly a new Malick movie are they, though? I'd be surprised if it didn't go wide, why release it in the summer if there was no intention ever to take it wide, especially with the cast involved.

[numbersix]

I imagine they're holding off to see how big the response is, and go wide if there's a huge demand.