Future Tracking From Exhibitors
Moderators: Buscemi, BarcaRulz, Geezer, W
Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors
I'm thinking It: Chapter Two will make much less money than the first. If it's anything like the miniseries, the second half is way sillier and less interesting (it's been so long since I read the book that I forget if that also had the camp tone). Also, it's going to be hard buying Jessica Chastain as Beverly (I'm still convinced they should have cast the film without any big names much like the first part).
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.
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Shrykespeare
- Site Admin
- Posts: 14273
- Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
- Location: Glendale, AZ
Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors
Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:
7/26 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 45.5/150
8/2 Hobbs & Shaw 89/218
8/9 Dora and the Lost City of Gold 28/85
8/9 The Kitchen 11.5/34.5
8/9 Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark 10/26.5
8/9 The Art of Racing in the Rain 8.5/32
8/9 Brian Banks n/a
8/14 The Angry Birds Movie 2 19/70
8/14 Blinded By the Light n/a
8/16 Good Boys 15/43
8/16 47 Meters Down: Uncaged 15/39
8/16 The Informer n/a
8/16 Where'd You Go, Bernadette 11/45
8/23 Angel Has Fallen 12/49
8/23 Overcomer 6.5/24
8/23 Ready or Not n/a
8/30 PLAYMOBIL: The Movie 4/10
9/6 It: Chapter Two 136/305
9/13 Hustlers 13/39
9/13 The Goldfinch 10/33
The Goldfinch
Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 15 million
PROS:
With an ensemble led by up-and-comer Ansel Elgort (Baby Driver, The Fault In Our Stars), as well as Nicole Kidman and Jeffrey Wright, this could be a fair counter-programmer among adults. Brooklyn director John Crowley is also coming off the critical acclaim of that film, while the source novel’s popularity serves as a built-in point of interest for fans.
CONS:
Recent adult-driven dramas have had a rocky run at the box office in the autumn season, with initial comps for this title including the likes of last year’s White Boy Rick, 2017’s The Mountain Between Us, and 2011’s Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.
Hustlers
Opening Weekend Range: $9 – 17 million
PROS:
A strong ensemble cast led by Constance Wu (Crazy Rich Asians) Jennifer Lopez, and Cardi B could turn this into a strong “girls’ night out” option. STX in particular has delivered a number of fair financial successes aimed at female audiences, and the comedic aspects of this could be a positive selling point.
CONS:
Similar female revenge flicks have earned modest numbers lately, with Miss Bala and Widows being recent examples.
7/26 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 45.5/150
8/2 Hobbs & Shaw 89/218
8/9 Dora and the Lost City of Gold 28/85
8/9 The Kitchen 11.5/34.5
8/9 Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark 10/26.5
8/9 The Art of Racing in the Rain 8.5/32
8/9 Brian Banks n/a
8/14 The Angry Birds Movie 2 19/70
8/14 Blinded By the Light n/a
8/16 Good Boys 15/43
8/16 47 Meters Down: Uncaged 15/39
8/16 The Informer n/a
8/16 Where'd You Go, Bernadette 11/45
8/23 Angel Has Fallen 12/49
8/23 Overcomer 6.5/24
8/23 Ready or Not n/a
8/30 PLAYMOBIL: The Movie 4/10
9/6 It: Chapter Two 136/305
9/13 Hustlers 13/39
9/13 The Goldfinch 10/33
The Goldfinch
Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 15 million
PROS:
With an ensemble led by up-and-comer Ansel Elgort (Baby Driver, The Fault In Our Stars), as well as Nicole Kidman and Jeffrey Wright, this could be a fair counter-programmer among adults. Brooklyn director John Crowley is also coming off the critical acclaim of that film, while the source novel’s popularity serves as a built-in point of interest for fans.
CONS:
Recent adult-driven dramas have had a rocky run at the box office in the autumn season, with initial comps for this title including the likes of last year’s White Boy Rick, 2017’s The Mountain Between Us, and 2011’s Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.
Hustlers
Opening Weekend Range: $9 – 17 million
PROS:
A strong ensemble cast led by Constance Wu (Crazy Rich Asians) Jennifer Lopez, and Cardi B could turn this into a strong “girls’ night out” option. STX in particular has delivered a number of fair financial successes aimed at female audiences, and the comedic aspects of this could be a positive selling point.
CONS:
Similar female revenge flicks have earned modest numbers lately, with Miss Bala and Widows being recent examples.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)
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Shrykespeare
- Site Admin
- Posts: 14273
- Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
- Location: Glendale, AZ
Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors
Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:
8/2 Hobbs & Shaw 89/218
8/9 Dora and the Lost City of Gold 28/85
8/9 The Kitchen 11.5/34.5
8/9 Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark 11/29
8/9 The Art of Racing in the Rain 8.5/32
8/9 Brian Banks n/a
8/14 The Angry Birds Movie 2 19/70
8/16 Blinded By the Light n/a
8/16 Good Boys 15/43
8/16 47 Meters Down: Uncaged 15/39
8/16 The Informer n/a
8/16 Where'd You Go, Bernadette 11/45
8/23 Angel Has Fallen 12/49
8/23 Overcomer 6.5/24
8/23 Ready or Not n/a
8/30 PLAYMOBIL: The Movie 4/10
9/6 It: Chapter Two 136/305
9/13 Hustlers 13/39
9/13 The Goldfinch 10/33
9/20 Ad Astra 20/65
9/20 Rambo: Last Blood 14.5/35
9/20 Downton Abbey n/a
Ad Astra
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million
PROS:
Brad Pitt and a solid ensemble cast could turn out to be significant draws among adult audiences, particularly with Pitt coming back to the cinema forefront in this summer’s Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood.
The film’s PLF and IMAX footprint should boost initial earnings with premium ticket prices in tow. The film’s release window could also be a strength with modest competition for adults and a decent gap between It: Chapter Two earlier in September and October’s Joker.
CONS:
The film’s release delays aren’t the most encouraging of signs, and it remains to be seen how strongly Disney markets the title after having inherited it in the Fox acquisition. We’re also cautious given last fall’s muted run by the acclaimed First Man.
Social media growth at this stage of tracking hasn’t stood out in a significant way considering it’s a novel adaptation, but there’s plenty of time for that to change once summer wraps up.
Rambo: Last Blood
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 20 million
PROS:
Sylvester Stallone’s fan base should be a strength here as older male audiences have turned out to support several of his recent releases, most notably the Expendables franchise.
CONS:
It’s questionable whether or not this can repeat the kind of success 2008’s Rambo revival did given the recent saturation of similar nostalgic action franchises (which haven’t always met box office expectations).
8/2 Hobbs & Shaw 89/218
8/9 Dora and the Lost City of Gold 28/85
8/9 The Kitchen 11.5/34.5
8/9 Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark 11/29
8/9 The Art of Racing in the Rain 8.5/32
8/9 Brian Banks n/a
8/14 The Angry Birds Movie 2 19/70
8/16 Blinded By the Light n/a
8/16 Good Boys 15/43
8/16 47 Meters Down: Uncaged 15/39
8/16 The Informer n/a
8/16 Where'd You Go, Bernadette 11/45
8/23 Angel Has Fallen 12/49
8/23 Overcomer 6.5/24
8/23 Ready or Not n/a
8/30 PLAYMOBIL: The Movie 4/10
9/6 It: Chapter Two 136/305
9/13 Hustlers 13/39
9/13 The Goldfinch 10/33
9/20 Ad Astra 20/65
9/20 Rambo: Last Blood 14.5/35
9/20 Downton Abbey n/a
Ad Astra
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million
PROS:
Brad Pitt and a solid ensemble cast could turn out to be significant draws among adult audiences, particularly with Pitt coming back to the cinema forefront in this summer’s Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood.
The film’s PLF and IMAX footprint should boost initial earnings with premium ticket prices in tow. The film’s release window could also be a strength with modest competition for adults and a decent gap between It: Chapter Two earlier in September and October’s Joker.
CONS:
The film’s release delays aren’t the most encouraging of signs, and it remains to be seen how strongly Disney markets the title after having inherited it in the Fox acquisition. We’re also cautious given last fall’s muted run by the acclaimed First Man.
Social media growth at this stage of tracking hasn’t stood out in a significant way considering it’s a novel adaptation, but there’s plenty of time for that to change once summer wraps up.
Rambo: Last Blood
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 20 million
PROS:
Sylvester Stallone’s fan base should be a strength here as older male audiences have turned out to support several of his recent releases, most notably the Expendables franchise.
CONS:
It’s questionable whether or not this can repeat the kind of success 2008’s Rambo revival did given the recent saturation of similar nostalgic action franchises (which haven’t always met box office expectations).
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)
Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors
It: Chapter Two has an apparent run time of 165 minutes. Audiences typically like long movies but horror films are usually short (Midsommar, of course, proved to be an exception for the latter). How does this effect the box office?
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.
Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors
I'm pretty sure anyone who saw the first part will be in for the second, regardless of run-time.
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transformers2
- John Rambo
- Posts: 7786
- Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm
Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors
Agree with six. Original was a record-breaking sensation, the runtime isn't going to deter anyone from seeing how the story ends.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!
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Shrykespeare
- Site Admin
- Posts: 14273
- Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
- Location: Glendale, AZ
Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors
Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:
8/9 Dora and the Lost City of Gold 28/85
8/9 The Kitchen 11.5/34.5
8/9 Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark 11/29
8/9 The Art of Racing in the Rain 8/30
8/9 Brian Banks n/a
8/14 The Angry Birds Movie 2 19/70
8/16 Blinded By the Light 6.5/20
8/16 Good Boys 15/43
8/16 47 Meters Down: Uncaged 15/39
8/16 The Informer n/a
8/16 Where'd You Go, Bernadette 11/45
8/23 Angel Has Fallen 12/49
8/23 Overcomer 6.5/24
8/23 Ready or Not n/a
8/30 PLAYMOBIL: The Movie 4/10
9/6 It: Chapter Two 136/305
9/13 Hustlers 13/39
9/13 The Goldfinch 10/33
9/20 Ad Astra 20/65
9/20 Rambo: Last Blood 14.5/35
9/20 Downton Abbey n/a
9/27 Abominable 22.5/75
9/27 The Hunt 14/38
Abominable
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million
PROS:
As the autumn season’s first animated release, one likely to receive a considerable marketing campaign from its major distributor (Universal), there’s plenty of opportunity to serve as the first choice for families with young kids during the early weekends of the new school year.
Recent September animated openings have generally fallen within a consistent range, including last year’s Smallfoot ($23.1 million opening), 2017’s LEGO Ninjago Movie ($20.4 million), and 2016’s Storks ($21.3 million).
CONS:
Staying power could be somewhat hindered by October 11’s release of The Addams Family and, to a lesser degree, October 18’s Maleficent: Mistress of Evil.
The Hunt
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 19 million
PROS:
The Blumhouse brand and several familiar faces in the ensemble cast are strong selling points here, as is the film’s nature as an original thriller that could attract a strong teen and young adult audience heading into October and Halloween season.
Opening three weeks after It: Chapter Two and three weeks before Zombieland: Double Tap gives the film a decent spot to carve out some attention from genre fans.
CONS:
Strong reception may be key here as the premise could draw comparisons to Blumhouse’s own The Purge.
8/9 Dora and the Lost City of Gold 28/85
8/9 The Kitchen 11.5/34.5
8/9 Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark 11/29
8/9 The Art of Racing in the Rain 8/30
8/9 Brian Banks n/a
8/14 The Angry Birds Movie 2 19/70
8/16 Blinded By the Light 6.5/20
8/16 Good Boys 15/43
8/16 47 Meters Down: Uncaged 15/39
8/16 The Informer n/a
8/16 Where'd You Go, Bernadette 11/45
8/23 Angel Has Fallen 12/49
8/23 Overcomer 6.5/24
8/23 Ready or Not n/a
8/30 PLAYMOBIL: The Movie 4/10
9/6 It: Chapter Two 136/305
9/13 Hustlers 13/39
9/13 The Goldfinch 10/33
9/20 Ad Astra 20/65
9/20 Rambo: Last Blood 14.5/35
9/20 Downton Abbey n/a
9/27 Abominable 22.5/75
9/27 The Hunt 14/38
Abominable
Opening Weekend Range: $15 – 25 million
PROS:
As the autumn season’s first animated release, one likely to receive a considerable marketing campaign from its major distributor (Universal), there’s plenty of opportunity to serve as the first choice for families with young kids during the early weekends of the new school year.
Recent September animated openings have generally fallen within a consistent range, including last year’s Smallfoot ($23.1 million opening), 2017’s LEGO Ninjago Movie ($20.4 million), and 2016’s Storks ($21.3 million).
CONS:
Staying power could be somewhat hindered by October 11’s release of The Addams Family and, to a lesser degree, October 18’s Maleficent: Mistress of Evil.
The Hunt
Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 19 million
PROS:
The Blumhouse brand and several familiar faces in the ensemble cast are strong selling points here, as is the film’s nature as an original thriller that could attract a strong teen and young adult audience heading into October and Halloween season.
Opening three weeks after It: Chapter Two and three weeks before Zombieland: Double Tap gives the film a decent spot to carve out some attention from genre fans.
CONS:
Strong reception may be key here as the premise could draw comparisons to Blumhouse’s own The Purge.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)
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Shrykespeare
- Site Admin
- Posts: 14273
- Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
- Location: Glendale, AZ
Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors
Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:
8/14 The Angry Birds Movie 2 17/70
8/16 Blinded By the Light 5.5/18
8/16 Good Boys 12/36
8/16 47 Meters Down: Uncaged 13/34
8/16 Where'd You Go, Bernadette 6/25
8/23 Angel Has Fallen 12/49
8/23 Overcomer 6.5/24
8/23 Ready or Not n/a
9/6 It: Chapter Two 138/310
9/13 Hustlers 13/39
9/13 The Goldfinch 10/33
9/20 Ad Astra 20/65
9/20 Rambo: Last Blood 14.5/35
9/20 Downton Abbey n/a
9/27 Abominable 22.5/75
9/27 The Hunt 14/38
10/4 Joker 77/175
Joker
Opening Weekend Range: $60 – 90 million
PROS:
As one of the most iconic characters in comic book and cinema history, fans are eagerly awaiting the latest interpretation of the Joker by one of the industry’s most intriguing and acclaimed actors working today (Joaquin Phoenix).
Thanks to films like the Deadpool movies and Logan, audiences have shown their appetite for well-made, adult-driven, R-rated comic book movies. Through that lens, this isn’t perceived as the major risk it may have been just a few years ago.
The DC universe has seen a bit of a rebound with audiences and critics recently thanks to Wonder Woman, Aquaman, and Shazam! earlier this year.
Trailer activity has been very strong, trending ahead of Logan at the same point before release. Social media trends are also encouraging.
Early praise — though far from representing a large sample yet — brings some confidence into play. If the film manages to inspire the kind of awards season conversation Logan enjoyed in early 2017, it could develop staying power with a presumably weaker October/November slate to contend with relative to last year’s record period in that corridor.
Competition for a wide audience won’t be too concerning with only October 11’s Gemini Man similarly courting adults as of right now.
CONS:
What may end up dividing many fans is the fact that Phillips and others working on the film have publicly confirmed they aren’t following any single comic narrative. More to the point, one of the most hotly debated subjects surrounding the Joker has been whether or not his lack of an origin story is part of what makes him compelling to fans and/or casual moviegoers.
Considering this won’t have much of a family audience to lean on like most comic book films do, there’s even more importance on fan reactions and word of mouth among older audiences than usual for the genre. For now, we’re expecting a run more akin to a (very) high-level performer in the R-rated crime/thriller bracket than the usual comic book blockbuster realm.
While Suicide Squad and its $133.7 million opening in August 2016 could be pointed to as evidence that enough time has passed for audiences to give another actor a shot as the iconic villain in the wake of Heath Ledger’s beloved, Oscar-winning performance in 2008’s The Dark Knight, Jared Leto’s take was also but a small part of the ensemble appeal behind Squad‘s success three years ago. It remains to be seen how strong of an attraction the Joker character is on his own — particularly given this is an origin story.
As DC’s first significant departure from PG-13, family-friendly material in the modern era, moviegoer interest — and eventual sentiment — are expected to combine for forecasts that should be viewed as significantly volatile until closer to release.
8/14 The Angry Birds Movie 2 17/70
8/16 Blinded By the Light 5.5/18
8/16 Good Boys 12/36
8/16 47 Meters Down: Uncaged 13/34
8/16 Where'd You Go, Bernadette 6/25
8/23 Angel Has Fallen 12/49
8/23 Overcomer 6.5/24
8/23 Ready or Not n/a
9/6 It: Chapter Two 138/310
9/13 Hustlers 13/39
9/13 The Goldfinch 10/33
9/20 Ad Astra 20/65
9/20 Rambo: Last Blood 14.5/35
9/20 Downton Abbey n/a
9/27 Abominable 22.5/75
9/27 The Hunt 14/38
10/4 Joker 77/175
Joker
Opening Weekend Range: $60 – 90 million
PROS:
As one of the most iconic characters in comic book and cinema history, fans are eagerly awaiting the latest interpretation of the Joker by one of the industry’s most intriguing and acclaimed actors working today (Joaquin Phoenix).
Thanks to films like the Deadpool movies and Logan, audiences have shown their appetite for well-made, adult-driven, R-rated comic book movies. Through that lens, this isn’t perceived as the major risk it may have been just a few years ago.
The DC universe has seen a bit of a rebound with audiences and critics recently thanks to Wonder Woman, Aquaman, and Shazam! earlier this year.
Trailer activity has been very strong, trending ahead of Logan at the same point before release. Social media trends are also encouraging.
Early praise — though far from representing a large sample yet — brings some confidence into play. If the film manages to inspire the kind of awards season conversation Logan enjoyed in early 2017, it could develop staying power with a presumably weaker October/November slate to contend with relative to last year’s record period in that corridor.
Competition for a wide audience won’t be too concerning with only October 11’s Gemini Man similarly courting adults as of right now.
CONS:
What may end up dividing many fans is the fact that Phillips and others working on the film have publicly confirmed they aren’t following any single comic narrative. More to the point, one of the most hotly debated subjects surrounding the Joker has been whether or not his lack of an origin story is part of what makes him compelling to fans and/or casual moviegoers.
Considering this won’t have much of a family audience to lean on like most comic book films do, there’s even more importance on fan reactions and word of mouth among older audiences than usual for the genre. For now, we’re expecting a run more akin to a (very) high-level performer in the R-rated crime/thriller bracket than the usual comic book blockbuster realm.
While Suicide Squad and its $133.7 million opening in August 2016 could be pointed to as evidence that enough time has passed for audiences to give another actor a shot as the iconic villain in the wake of Heath Ledger’s beloved, Oscar-winning performance in 2008’s The Dark Knight, Jared Leto’s take was also but a small part of the ensemble appeal behind Squad‘s success three years ago. It remains to be seen how strong of an attraction the Joker character is on his own — particularly given this is an origin story.
As DC’s first significant departure from PG-13, family-friendly material in the modern era, moviegoer interest — and eventual sentiment — are expected to combine for forecasts that should be viewed as significantly volatile until closer to release.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)
Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors
They're right about WOM on Joker. It's the least superhero-y superhero script I've ever read. Imagine expecting the Dark Knight and getting Nightcrawler (yet not as good).
I'm thinking 60m opening and 120m cume at the moment.
I'm thinking 60m opening and 120m cume at the moment.
Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors
If Suicide Squad could gross over $300 million domestically, I think Joker can hit $200 million, especially if Phoenix is as good as the Venice Film Festival committee says he is (they're thinking a Best Actor Oscar nomination, apparently). In addition, it has opening weekend to itself and really not many comparables in October outside of Zombieland 2.
Don't underestimate audiences' love of the bad guy.
Don't underestimate audiences' love of the bad guy.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.
Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors
Suicide Squad had guns and monsters and shooting and action.
Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors
And scantily clad Margot Robbie vs Joaquin Phoenix in worn out tightie whities. Seriously, though, it's the tone. One is closer to Taxi Driver and the other is more a traditional superhero film. Looking at the two Joker seems to be the better movie, but Suicide Squad hit more with the movie-going public, namely 13-21 year olds.numbersix wrote:Suicide Squad had guns and monsters and shooting and action.
Tenet: Criterion Edition. Now with more Backwards Man.
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Shrykespeare
- Site Admin
- Posts: 14273
- Joined: September 12th, 2009, 11:38 pm
- Location: Glendale, AZ
Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors
Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:
8/23 Angel Has Fallen 17/47
8/23 Overcomer 4.4/`9
8/21 Ready or Not n/a
9/6 It: Chapter Two 138/310
9/13 Hustlers 13/39
9/13 The Goldfinch 10/33
9/20 Ad Astra 20/65
9/20 Rambo: Last Blood 14.5/35
9/20 Downton Abbey n/a
9/27 Abominable 22.5/75
9/27 The Hunt 14/38
10/4 Joker 81/180
10/11 Gemini Man 28/90
10/11 The Addams Family 18/70
The Addams Family
Opening Weekend Range: $16 – 21 million
PROS:
The franchise name could appeal to adults of multiple generations (thanks to the original 1960s TV series and the popular big-screen features in the early 1990s). With potentially solid appeal to their kids (and grandkids) — plus no major competition from animated releases until mid-November’s Frozen II — the compounded family interest and staying power could turn this into a solid autumn success.
Proximity to Halloween season in particular should provide a boost in target audience interest, with initial comps including films like the two recent Goosebumps films and The House with a Clock In Its Walls. This could also appeal to fans of the Hotel Transylvania series.
CONS:
Opening in Abominable‘s third weekend may be enough distance to prevent major overlap, but if that film generates strong word of mouth, there could still be moderate crossover for the kiddie audience.
Likewise, opening one week before Maleficent: Mistress of Evil puts Addams in range of having to compete for some of the young female Disney crowd.
Gemini Man
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 30 million
PROS:
Will Smith’s return to the industry forefront in this year’s blockbuster run by Aladdin is certainly a factor to keep in mind as his older fans may next be looking forward to something more akin to the actor’s adult-driven hits like I Am Legend and Enemy of the State. In the right role, and with the right product, he’s still capable of driving breakout films.
Acclaimed filmmaker Ang Lee is promising a unique visual experience with the de-aged Smith facing off against himself. Although the 120FPS distribution isn’t expected to be wide enough to have significant impact on box office returns, premium theater runs could be healthy if reviews and word of mouth for the movie itself prove strong — which would also prove fruitful given a relative lack of adult-centric competition in late October.
CONS:
Releasing one week after Joker will put this in an intriguing position. Should that DC pic win over adult moviegoers, Gemini could perform more in line with films like Blade Runner 2049, The Accountant, Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, or (worst case scenario) Smith’s own Focus.
Trailers have drawn online comparisons to Looper and other “man vs. self/clone” films, which could leave some of the target genre fan audience harder to win over with the feeling of a narrative they’ve seen before.
8/23 Angel Has Fallen 17/47
8/23 Overcomer 4.4/`9
8/21 Ready or Not n/a
9/6 It: Chapter Two 138/310
9/13 Hustlers 13/39
9/13 The Goldfinch 10/33
9/20 Ad Astra 20/65
9/20 Rambo: Last Blood 14.5/35
9/20 Downton Abbey n/a
9/27 Abominable 22.5/75
9/27 The Hunt 14/38
10/4 Joker 81/180
10/11 Gemini Man 28/90
10/11 The Addams Family 18/70
The Addams Family
Opening Weekend Range: $16 – 21 million
PROS:
The franchise name could appeal to adults of multiple generations (thanks to the original 1960s TV series and the popular big-screen features in the early 1990s). With potentially solid appeal to their kids (and grandkids) — plus no major competition from animated releases until mid-November’s Frozen II — the compounded family interest and staying power could turn this into a solid autumn success.
Proximity to Halloween season in particular should provide a boost in target audience interest, with initial comps including films like the two recent Goosebumps films and The House with a Clock In Its Walls. This could also appeal to fans of the Hotel Transylvania series.
CONS:
Opening in Abominable‘s third weekend may be enough distance to prevent major overlap, but if that film generates strong word of mouth, there could still be moderate crossover for the kiddie audience.
Likewise, opening one week before Maleficent: Mistress of Evil puts Addams in range of having to compete for some of the young female Disney crowd.
Gemini Man
Opening Weekend Range: $25 – 30 million
PROS:
Will Smith’s return to the industry forefront in this year’s blockbuster run by Aladdin is certainly a factor to keep in mind as his older fans may next be looking forward to something more akin to the actor’s adult-driven hits like I Am Legend and Enemy of the State. In the right role, and with the right product, he’s still capable of driving breakout films.
Acclaimed filmmaker Ang Lee is promising a unique visual experience with the de-aged Smith facing off against himself. Although the 120FPS distribution isn’t expected to be wide enough to have significant impact on box office returns, premium theater runs could be healthy if reviews and word of mouth for the movie itself prove strong — which would also prove fruitful given a relative lack of adult-centric competition in late October.
CONS:
Releasing one week after Joker will put this in an intriguing position. Should that DC pic win over adult moviegoers, Gemini could perform more in line with films like Blade Runner 2049, The Accountant, Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, or (worst case scenario) Smith’s own Focus.
Trailers have drawn online comparisons to Looper and other “man vs. self/clone” films, which could leave some of the target genre fan audience harder to win over with the feeling of a narrative they’ve seen before.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)
Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors
Too high on Hustlers (has there really been any marketing for this one?) and too low on Overcomer. War Room made $68 million and half that number for Overcomer would be seen as a big disappointment. I have a feeling it will be the top movie next week because of church groups.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.
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transformers2
- John Rambo
- Posts: 7786
- Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm
Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors
I might have a shock-induced heart attack if Gemini Man makes $90 mil. Paramount seems to believe in it, but I just have a hard time buying that audiences are going to eat up a Will Smith sci-fi action vehicle in 2019.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!