Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Discuss weekly box office numbers, PTA numbers, and date changes.

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


5/10 Detective Pikachu 55-79/215
5/10 Poms 9/38
5/10 The Hustle 15.5/44

5/17 John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum 37/106
5/17 The Sun is Also a Star 10/29
5/17 A Dog's Journey 13/46.7

5/24 Aladdin 66/185
5/24 Ad Astra n/a
5/24 Booksmart n/a
5/24 Brightburn 10/23

5/31 Godzilla: King of the Monsters 54/144
5/31 Rocketman 37/165
5/31 Ma 24/63

6/7 The Secret Life of Pets 2 80/263
6/7 Dark Phoenix 47/113
6/7 Late Night n/a

6/14 Men In Black International 39/107
6/14 Shaft 31/100

6/21 Toy Story 4 113/390
6/21 Child's Play 17/42.5

6/28 Annabelle Comes Home 39/101
6/28 Yesterday n/a







Annabelle Comes Home
Opening Weekend Range: $35 – 45 million

PROS:

The Conjuring universe films have earned consistently strong box office returns thanks to fan goodwill, with the most recent entry (The Nun) earning $117.5 million domestically off a $53.8 million opening weekend.

Stars of the main Conjuring films, Vera Farmiga and Patrick Wilson, are set to join this third Annabelle-specific release, which could bring out a few more fans than the doll’s previous “solo” movies.

The horror genre continues to be a stalwart for the industry, and a relative lack of direct competition throughout July should allow a healthy runway for this sequel provided positive word of mouth.


CONS:

Following Ma and Child’s Play in June, this will mark the third horror/thriller release of the month. That fact, combined with close proximity to the Independence Day holiday a few days after opening, could create minor back-loading.

Most franchises reach a saturation point, if not outright fatigue, after a certain point. Pre-release reviews could be key toward preventing that for this title, the seventh film in the Conjuring universe (counting The Curse of La Llorona).
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by NicodemustheSage »

Hm. "Godzilla" and "Rocketman" sure seem lower than earlier predictions.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/ ... 5m-1208750

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by NicodemustheSage »

This looks a bit more optimistic:

https://variety.com/2019/film/news/godz ... 203210105/

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

Bohemian Rhapsody I seem to recall was tracking a bit low before opening. Of course, that was PG-13 (Rocketman is apparently a hard R) and was in the works for much longer.

And as I said, that Godzilla teaser was pretty poor. If the end result is more Vera Farmiga going "I told you so" and less Godzilla beating up other monsters, poor word-of-mouth could spread quickly.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Screen203 »

The thing I don't think most people are factoring into Rocketman's performance is that Elton John is less popular with younger audiences than Queen. One one hand, I don't think that the R rating will hurt it much, if at all. On the other, Bohemian Rhapsody would have not been as successful without the variety of crowds it drew.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by NicodemustheSage »

I predict "Rocketman" will, if anything, eaen greater critical acclaim than the comparatively conservative "Bohemian Rhapsody", but will fail to do much more than half the box office. Two-thirds, at maximum.

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

We will see next week, when the sneak previews will be held. I expect great word-of-mouth from those who hated Bohemian Rhapsody.

I also think it's going to win a few artistic Oscars in February (Best Costume Design and Best Hairstyling & Makeup mainly).
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Chienfantome »

Screen203 wrote:The thing I don't think most people are factoring into Rocketman's performance is that Elton John is less popular with younger audiences than Queen. Bohemian Rhapsody would have not been as successful without the variety of crowds it drew.
Exactly. The only reason Bohemian Rhapsody was such a success is that everyone loves Queen's music, and it's still very popular today and even younger people who were not born when Mercury died listens to it. Elton John may be alive, but his music, as popular as it obvisouly is, is on a smaller scale of popularity. It should still do half of what Bohemian did, maybe a bit more, and that will still be a good success. But it can't be as phenomenal as Bohemian.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

However, the release of Rocketman is timed with John's farewell tour, which has been getting a lot of publicity in music circles. A film like this one is going to play older and the older audiences need a movie they can call their own this summer without having to drive far to find it.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


5/17 John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum 38.5/110
5/17 A Dog's Journey 13/46.7
5/17 The Sun is Also a Star 8.5/24.7

5/24 Aladdin 67/188
5/24 Booksmart n/a
5/24 Brightburn 10/23

5/31 Godzilla: King of the Monsters 54/144
5/31 Rocketman 40/165
5/31 Ma 23/60

6/7 The Secret Life of Pets 2 80/263
6/7 Dark Phoenix 47/113
6/7 Late Night n/a

6/14 Men In Black International 39/107
6/14 Shaft 31/100

6/21 Toy Story 4 113/390
6/21 Child's Play 17/42.5

6/26 Annabelle Comes Home 31/101
6/28 Yesterday n/a

7/2 Spider-Man: Far From Home 90-120/405




Spider-Man: Far From Home
Opening Weekend Range: $90 – 120 million (3-day) / $190 – 230 million (6-day)

PROS:

As Endgame has crushed box office records around the world, some of the most memorable and heartfelt moments of that film and Infinity War have involved or centered around Peter Parker/Spider-Man. Much like past Marvel solo sequels have seen “bumps” at the box office (such as the Iron Man, Captain America, and Thor trilogies) post-Avengers releases, something similar is safe to expect with Far From Home given that its newest trailer promises a direct tie to Endgame‘s finale and the emotional fallout for key main and supporting characters.

Homecoming was one of summer’s biggest hits two years ago as it earned $334.2 million domestically — no small feat for a film that had to reboot the entire franchise for a second time in just half a decade and earn back some of the audience that propelled Sam Raimi’s original 2000s-era blockbuster trilogy. That goodwill for Homecoming and Tom Holland’s charismatic performance will carry over here, not to mention the fact that Spidey — as a brand — remains one of the most universally popular superheroes across all age groups.

Trailer Impact surveys position early tracking on par with that of Captain Marvel at the same point in the pre-release cycle. Far From Home claims 63 percent “definitely interested” and another 27 percent “interested” 57 days out. That’s nearly identical to Captain‘s 65 percent and 24 percent scores on the respective metrics when 60 days out from opening. Both titles claimed an 18 percent recall score among surveyed audiences.

The new full-length trailer became Sony’s most viewed in studio history with over 135 million views in its first day of release, besting this film’s own teaser trailer and Homecoming itself as Sony’s most successful online trailer release to date.

Social media trends have been strong for months as fans have speculated what the post-Endgame future holds for Spider-Man and the Marvel Cinematic Universe at-large. That should only serve to continue drumming up buzz for the next two months.

The promising addition of Jake Gyllenhaal’s Mysterio (another popular villain from Spidey’s diverse rogues gallery), plus the return of fan favorites Samuel L. Jackson, Jon Favreau, Cobie Smulders, Zendaya, Marisa Tomei, and Jacob Batalon round out the strong ensemble moviegoers have come to expect from Marvel.


CONS:

There isn’t much working against the film at this point. Reviews will be somewhat key toward longevity, as always, and the biggest source of competition will be Disney’s Toy Story 4 (still aiming for youngsters in its third weekend) and The Lion King (which is shaping up to be a major late summer blockbuster when it opens in Spidey’s third frame).
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by NicodemustheSage »

With so many Disney films stacked practically right on top of one another this year, I do wonder if they could cock-block one another to some degree.

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


5/24 Aladdin 68.5/192
5/24 Brightburn 9/23
5/24 Booksmart 7/?

5/31 Godzilla: King of the Monsters 54/144
5/31 Rocketman 40/165
5/31 Ma 23/60

6/7 The Secret Life of Pets 2 80/263
6/7 Dark Phoenix 50/118
6/7 Late Night n/a

6/14 Men In Black International 39/107
6/14 Shaft 31/100

6/21 Toy Story 4 117/390
6/21 Child's Play 17/42.5

6/26 Annabelle Comes Home 31/101
6/28 Yesterday n/a

7/2 Spider-Man: Far From Home 90-120/405

7/10 Stuber 17.5/65
7/10 Crawl 18/47





PROS:

Crawl will hope to rally fans of producer/horror veteran Sam Raimi and director Alexandre Aja with a well-timed, midsummer alligator creature feature. Early trailer reactions are largely positive, and this could attract a healthy teen/date night audience in the vein of films like Don’t Breathe, The Shallows, and 47 Meters Down.

Stuber pairs together one of comedy’s biggest rising stars in Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick, Silicon Valley) and another Marvel staple, Dave Bautista (Guardians of the Galaxy, Spectre). Positive trailer reactions and the lack of direct comedy competition in July make this a strong sleeper contender.


CONS:

The horror/thriller market is fairly crowded this summer, notably with Crawl opening just over two weeks after Annabelle Comes Home and two weeks before Brahms: The Boy 2. As is typical with original films in the genre, tracking visibility will improve significantly close to release.

Early social media trends for Stuber are unsurprisingly modest for the original pic, but initial comparisons include the likes of last summer’s Tag.



Opening Weekend Ranges

Crawl ($13 – 22 million)
Stuber ($12 – 21 million)
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


6/7 The Secret Life of Pets 2 68/238
6/7 Dark Phoenix 50/118
6/7 Late Night n/a

6/14 Men In Black International 41/112.5
6/14 Shaft 24/69

6/21 Toy Story 4 151/495
6/21 Child's Play 17/42.5

6/26 Annabelle Comes Home 31/101
6/28 Yesterday n/a

7/2 Spider-Man: Far From Home 90-120/405

7/12 Stuber 17.5/65
7/12 Crawl 18/47

7/19 The Lion King 201/650

7/26 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 50/165
7/26 Brahms: The Boy 2 n/a




Once Upon a Time In… Hollywood
Opening Weekend Range: $40 – 60 million

PROS:

The combined star power of Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, and Quentin Tarantino himself instantly makes this worthy of “tentpole” distinction, standing apart even more as it aims for adult moviegoers during the typically youth-friendly summer season.

Early reviews following the movie’s premiere at Cannes are ecstatic with 94 percent of 62 Rotten Tomatoes critics awarding it a fresh rating, including praise for the work of all key players involved and Tarantino’s continued evolution as one of cinema’s most original storytellers.

Competition for the adult audience — particularly those not looking for a special effects-driven blockbuster — will be minimal in late summer, offering plenty of runway for the film to leg out a solid multiple even if Tarantino fans drive opening weekend business.

Initial box office comps include the likes of Dunkirk, an original film sold largely on Christopher Nolan’s directorial namesake, which opened to $50.5 million in July 2017. Similarly, Tarantino’s own Inglourious Basterds (his highest traditional weekend opener to date) bowed to $38.1 million in late August 2009 — which adjusts to over $46 million based on 2019 ticket prices.

Additional comps include DiCaprio’s impressive history as one of the most reliable and consistent box office draws in the industry, particularly over the last decade. His career-best openers thus far include Inception ($62.8 million) and The Great Gatsby ($50.1 million), followed by Shutter Island ($41.1 million), The Revenant‘s wide expansion ($39.8 million), and Django Unchained ($30.1 million).

The R rating skews comparisons to other adult-aimed late summer hits like the Mission: Impossible, Planet of the Apes, Jason Bourne, and Star Trek franchises — all of which had PG-13 ratings friendly to teen audiences interested in them. That being said, this is another example of a film whose R rating is arguably a strength given what moviegoers expect from a Tarantino film.

Social media buzz has ignited following the most recent trailer release, with the film’s Instagram account adding 20,700 followers during the week of May 23 – May 30 (for a total of 152,000 thus far).

Early comparisons to the tone of Pulp Fiction are encouraging toward box office prospects given that film remains his best overall performer at the box office, earning $107.9 million domestically in 1994-1995, adjusting to nearly $230 million in 2019 ticket prices. Django ($162.8 million actual / $185 million adjusted) and Basterds ($120.5 million actual / $145 million adjusted) follow it.


CONS:

Opening one week before Hobbs & Shaw — which is expected to post a strong opening weekend — could slightly dilute business among adult men, which this film reportedly will appeal strongest to.

Although not necessarily a negative point, the distance from Oscar season likely eliminates much of an award season boost at the box office — essentially the same situation Basterds found itself in ten years ago when it earned a (still highly respectable) 3.16x multiplier from its first August weekend toward a $120.5 million domestic finish. Hollywood‘s opening one month earlier in the summer than that film, however, could give it a longer runway for legs.

Again, if there’s any minor downside to note, it’s the question of how the run time and/or industry-friendly subject material will play among audiences outside coastal regions compared to the way Basterds and Django attracted diverse audiences around the country.




From last week:

The Lion King (2019)
Opening Weekend Range: $180 – 230 million (as of May 24, 2019)

PROS:

On Trailer Impact, audiences have responded with an Average Positive Interest (API) score ranging between 85 and 90 percent between last December and as recently as last weekend. By comparison, Avengers: Endgame scored 94 percent leading up to release with half as many respondents as Lion King, while Incredibles 2 averaged 86 percent last summer (again, with far fewer respondents). When tracking began in December, Lion King instantly surveyed as the top choice on the Cinema View Interest metric (pre-Endgame trailer release).

The original film is universally regarded as a classic for all ages, not just in animation, but cinema at-large. The movie still stands tall with critics at 93 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, plus a 93 percent audience score from nearly 1.3 million voters. It was the second-highest grossing film of 1994 with $312.9 million (just behind Forrest Gump‘s $329.7 million) — which adjusts to over $680 million based on estimated Q2 2019 ticket prices.
Accounting for inflation, it claims the highest original run by any animated release in history outside the original run of 1937’s Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (whose $67 million earnings then would now translate to over $700 million). 1941’s Fantasia ($43 million actual) adjusts to a similar estimate of $680 million with today’s prices.

The above figures exclude Lion King‘s very successful 2011 re-release, which earned another $94.2 million domestic. In all, it’s estimated to be among the top six ticket-sellers across all theatrical releases in the last 35 years (trailing only Jurassic Park, Titanic, Star Wars: The Phantom Menace, Avatar, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens), underlining expectations that this remake could be the latest generation-crossing cinematic event for those who grew up on the original and those just being introduced to the beloved story.

The 1994 original was nominated for four Oscars, winning two for Hans Zimmer’s original score and Elton John & Tim Rice’s “Can You Feel the Love Tonight”, while winning the Golden Globe for Best Picture (Comedy or Musical) as well as two Grammys. The return of that musical team — combined with the addition of global superstar Beyoncé — is driving synergistic expectations of a late summer entertainment powerhouse across the music and movie worlds, particularly given the original’s status as one of the best-selling movie soundtracks of all-time (and tops among animated films).

Disney is no stronger to blockbuster success from their live action remakes in the past decade with Beauty and the Beast ($504 million domestic), The Jungle Book ($364 million), and Alice In Wonderland ($334.2 million) standing among the top three.

The return of Jon Favreau in the director’s seat offers further promise for the faithfulness of this reimagining after he helmed 2016’s acclaimed remake of The Jungle Book, which blew past all box office expectations to become one of the biggest family hits of the year. Noted for its incredible visual effects, Lion King is expected to again set new standards in photo-realistic animation.

Audiences of varying ages and backgrounds are intrigued by a diverse all-star cast leading the voice ensemble — including the aforementioned Beyoncé, Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, John Oliver, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Keegan-Michael Key, Billy Eichner, and the return of James Earl Jones in his iconic role of Mufasa.

When this remake’s first trailer debuted last November, it racked up an estimated 225 million views in the first 24 hours. At the time, that ranked second all-time among all studio releases — behind only Avengers: Infinity War‘s 238 million. Since then, only Avengers: Endgame (a now-record 289 million) has surpassed it. By comparison, the Beauty and the Beast trailer earned an estimated 128 million views in its first day.

In a recent Fandango survey, the film ranked as the most anticipated summer family film, ahead of Toy Story 4, Aladdin, and The Secret Life of Pets 2. With minimal competition through Labor Day, The Lion King has a long end-of-summer runway for staying power if it generates strong word of mouth.

The current July record for opening weekend belongs to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2‘s $169.2 million. Adjusted for today’s ticket prices, The Dark Knight holds the throne with over $201 million ($158.4 million originally). Based on modern comparisons, The Lion King is currently tracking to open in that range or higher.

If the phenomenal success of Black Panther and the Star Wars, Avengers, and Jurassic World franchises have proven anything, it’s that event cinema demand is alive and well, especially when it offers something for everyone. As the last family-friendly tentpole release before November, Lion King will have weeks of IMAX and PLF screens to drive revenue.


CONS:

Disney’s live action track record isn’t spot-free, as evidenced by the recent under-performance of Dumbo ($112 million domestic). Still, their successes far outweigh their misses. The just-released Aladdin may or may not end up as another cautious comparison in that vein, although its pre-release buzz was marred by mixed trailer reactions — something that hasn’t been an issue for Lion King in any measurable way.

Social media activity has been challenging to gauge given the film’s target family audience. While this could indicate a roadblock in capturing some of that nostalgic crowd on an event level (particularly those fatigued by the stream of Disney movies the past few years), it may otherwise simply be a byproduct of the two-month window remaining before release — a period which will see several tentpole releases (like Toy Story 4 and Spider-Man: Far From Home) dominate moviegoer attention before the dog days of summer arrive.

Although not directly related to this film’s prospects for seemingly inevitable global success, there is some added importance for the movie to deliver a major summer run in North America after a year that began with record aspirations severely under-performed in the early months. While Endgame provided a big lift, year-to-date box office leading into Memorial Day is down 10 percent from 2018’s record pace. This summer’s second half and the end-of-year holiday season’s slate have long been viewed as integral to making up that lost ground, with The Lion King representing a significant role in that scenario.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


6/14 Men In Black International 39/107
6/14 Shaft 23/66

6/21 Toy Story 4 151/495
6/21 Child's Play 17/42.5
6/21 Anan 5/14.2

6/26 Annabelle Comes Home 31/101
6/28 Yesterday n/a

7/2 Spider-Man: Far From Home 90-120/405

7/12 Stuber 17.5/65
7/12 Crawl 18/47

7/19 The Lion King 201/650

7/26 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 50/165
7/26 Brahms: The Boy 2 n/a

8/2 Hobbs & Shaw 100/245






Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw
Opening Weekend Range: $75 – 115 million

PROS:

Dwayne Johnson and Jason Statham’s characters have become some of the most popular additions to the Fast & Furious franchise over the past few installments, with Johnson’s involvement widely credited for helping to revive the series after his introduction in 2011’s Fast Five. His stardom has only increased since then, starring in ten films that have earned more than $100 million at the domestic box office since 2011.

Late summer has proven very friendly to male-driven action franchises, ranging from the Expendables series, to Star Trek Beyond and Jason Bourne in 2016, and the last two Mission: Impossible films. This franchise’s more balanced appeal to young and adult audiences is notable.

Another benefit for Hobbs & Shaw may be the franchise’s diverse audience. In addition to 41 percent Caucasian, Fate of the Furious‘s $98.8 million opening in 2017 was comprised of 26 percent Latinx, 19 percent African-American, and 11 percent Asian moviegoers.

Last year’s runaway success of The Meg also underscores the appeal of Jason Statham starring in high-concept action films with a sense of humor. With the addition of Idris Elba and Vanessa Kirby, the strong ensemble cast should balance appeal to both men and women.

To date, the franchise has enjoyed its highest level of success with the most recent five films — averaging $100.1 million per opening weekend since 2009’s Fast & Furious revival.

The top two August debuts ever have occurred in the past five years — Suicide Squad‘s $133.7 million in 2016 and Guardians of the Galaxy‘s $94.3 million. The next two highest were 2007’s Bourne Ultimatum ($69.3 million) and 2001’s Rush Hour 2 ($67.4 million). The latter could be a particularly relevant comp as a fellow comedic two-headed action pic, and it’s inflation-adjusted opening would be over $108 million with 2019 ticket prices.

As the last tentpole release of summer, positive word of mouth could help the film leg out a strong domestic and global haul even after what should be a strong debut.


CONS:

Opening one weekend after Once Upon a Time in Hollywood could lead to some audience crossover as both films will appeal to adult male audiences. The more audience friendly PG-13 rating of Hobbs & Shaw might negate much of that impact, though.

The franchise has met some criticism from fans after The Fate of the Furious, which many felt leaned too hard into over-the-top set pieces. Since that section of the franchise has been built around family drama, though, it’s possible this spin-off’s embrace of comedy and action will be greeted more warmly given its clear intent to be a lighter, fresher take on the franchise.

Despite the star power of Johnson and Statham, some fans of the franchise may be less interested in this spin-off without the full Furious family on board.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Chienfantome »

Yep, Hobbs and Shaw should definitely be a great round 2 pick in the draft !
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