Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Discuss weekly box office numbers, PTA numbers, and date changes.

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

9/8 It 60/150
9/8 Home Again 12/45

9/15 American Assassin 14.5/40
9/15 mother! 10.5/27
9/15 All I See is You 6.5/15.6

9/22 The LEGO Ninjago Movie 42.5/146.6
9/22 Kingsman: The Golden Circle 42/107.7
9/22 Friend Request n/a

9/29 American Made 15/50.5
9/29 Flatliners 11/26
9/29 A Question of Faith n/a

10/6 Blade Runner 2049 44/115
10/6 The Mountain Between Us 8/25
10/6 My Little Pony 7.5/21.5

10/13 Happy Death Day 20/40
10/13 Marshall 12/39
10/13 The Foreigner 10/27.7

10/20 Boo 2! A Madea Halloween 23.5/59.3
10/20 Only the Brave 16/55
10/20 The Snowman 11/31
10/20 Geostorm 12/27.8
10/20 Same Kind of Different as Me 4.5/12



PROS:

From director Dean Devlin (producer of the Independence Day films), Geostorm (Warner Bros.) will hope to attract fans of disaster flicks. If Gerard Butler’s fans from Olympus Has Fallen and London Has Fallen show up here, the film could mildly surprise.

Only the Brave (Sony/Columbia) boasts an ensemble led by Josh Brolin and Miles Teller that could appeal very well across Middle America. Based on a true story, this firefighter drama has notable sleeper potential.

Same Kind of Different As Me (Pure Flix) will mark the latest faith-based drama aimed at bringing out church crowds ahead of the holiday season. Its own ensemble could be an advantage toward mild success beyond that base if reviews are strong.

The Snowman (Universal) could be a well-timed thriller with a pre-Halloween release. Based on a preexisting novel, fans of the book and Michael Fassbender will be counted upon to drive attendance.

Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween (Lionsgate) aims to ride the momentum of last October’s hit predecessor. Perry’s fan base remains a reliable draw, and as one of the few comedies opening this autumn, we expect another successful run.


CONS:

Geostorm‘s biggest hurdle to climb is the simple fact that disaster pics are long past their box office prime, with few exceptions. Initial buzz here is quiet so far and leagues behind that of San Andreas.

Only the Brave‘s biggest challenge may be the competitive market it enters as October is packed with mid-range, adult-leaning dramas.

Same Kind of Different As Me has already been subject to several release delays, and distributor Pure Flix’s past releases have often settled into a consistent range of lower-tier box office performers.

The Snowman doesn’t boast quite the same level of pre-release social buzz enjoyed by last year’s The Girl on the Train.

Boo 2! is a likely candidate to experience some drop-off from its predecessor, as is common with many comedy sequels.


This Week’s Other Changes & Notes

It continues to ascend as exceptionally strong pre-sales reports and social media trends further its candidacy to break out in early September.

American Assassin has been the recipient of positive Twitter and Facebook growth in recent days. Although that is attributable to manufactured marketing pushes, the source material’s fans could help the film carve out a respectable audience if reviews come in strong next month.

Speaking of improving buzz, Kingsman: The Golden Circle continues to generate very healthy social media trends. That weekend remains a crucial one for the early fall box office as LEGO Ninjago should also benefit from the severe lack of high profile animated releases since July.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

9/8 It 70/175
9/8 Home Again 8.9/33.4

9/15 American Assassin 14.5/40
9/15 mother! 10.5/36
9/15 All I See is You 6.5/15.6

9/22 The LEGO Ninjago Movie 42.5/146.6
9/22 Kingsman: The Golden Circle 42/107.7
9/22 Friend Request n/a

9/29 American Made 15/50.5
9/29 Flatliners 11/26
9/29 A Question of Faith n/a

10/6 Blade Runner 2049 44/115
10/6 The Mountain Between Us 8/25
10/6 My Little Pony 7.5/21.5

10/13 Happy Death Day 20/40
10/13 Marshall 12/39
10/13 The Foreigner 10/27.7

10/20 Boo 2! A Madea Halloween 23.5/59.3
10/20 Only the Brave 16/55
10/20 The Snowman 11/31
10/20 Geostorm 12/27.8
10/20 Same Kind of Different as Me 4.5/12

10/27 Suburbicon 14/45
10/27 Jigsaw 10/21.6
10/27 Thank You For Your Service 5/17.5



PROS:

Jigsaw marks the eighth film in the Saw franchise, and the first since 2010. The series was a template for low-budget horror success during its prime and, with the return of Tobin Bell in the title role, could entice fans to return over pre-Halloween weekend. Social media reactions to the first glimpses of marketing have been generally par for the course.

Suburbicon hails from director George Clooney and could be a late autumn release to keep an eye on with Matt Damon in the lead, not to mention a screenplay from the Coen brothers. Crime-comedy is a tough genre to break out in, but the counter-programming potential leading into a blockbuster-heavy November/December period could work to its advantage — especially if awards buzz catches on.

Thank You for Your Service boasts a solid ensemble cast led by Miles Teller and Amy Schumer, among others. In addition to fans of David Finkel’s original 2013 novel, military families will be the driving audience here with Veterans Day coming up in its third week of release.


CONS:

The Saw series experienced a trend of declining box office returns for several sequels until Saw 3D ($46 million domestically) supposedly ended the series — albeit, earning far less than the franchise did at its peak with Saw 2 ($87 million). Even with a seven-year break, franchise fatigue could strike again on Jigsaw after a fall slate packed with other horror/thriller titles (namely IT, which could prove to be leggy for the genre).

Clooney’s directorial efforts have largely appealed to 40-something-and-up adults without expanding beyond that target crowd very often in the past. So far, initial buzz for this one is more reminiscent of the Coens’ Burn After Reading than Clooney’s Monuments Men.

Following the underwhelming run of last year’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, we’re conservative in our expectations for Thank You for Your Service at this time. The film will need to display impressive social media growth in the coming months (and/or generate strong award season buzz) if it hopes to break out in a busy market and perform on the level of last year’s Hacksaw Ridge (something we’re not ruling out by any means).


This Week’s Changes & Other Notes

IT continues to trend in unprecedented territory for a horror release. Social media footprints — even with restrictive search strings due to the generic film title — have been noticeably stronger than The Conjuring, Annabelle, and Insidious: Chapter 2. All signs point to a true event horror film.

Home Again remains a viable counter-programming candidate, although middling social media growth and the distributor’s limited marketing reach compared to films like The Intern and Bridget Jones’s Baby have us expecting a more modest opening with legs to follow.

mother! is driving notable social media interest with positive growth rates on Twitter and Facebook. We’re increasing expectations for a lengthy run, but simultaneously remain concerned about its release proximity to IT.

All I See Is You is slated to open October 27, however, Open Road tells Boxoffice that the film will only open in an estimated 250 locations. We’ll be holding off on forecasts unless a wide release is confirmed.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

9/22 The LEGO Ninjago Movie 41/146.6
9/22 Kingsman: The Golden Circle 46/118
9/22 Friend Request n/a

9/29 American Made 16/54
9/29 Flatliners 11/26
9/29 A Question of Faith n/a
9/29 Til Death Do Us Part n/a

10/6 Blade Runner 2049 44/115
10/6 The Mountain Between Us 8/25
10/6 My Little Pony 7.5/21.5

10/13 Happy Death Day 20/40
10/13 Marshall 12/39
10/13 The Foreigner 10/27.7
10/13 Professor Marston & the Wonder Woman n/a

10/20 Boo 2! A Madea Halloween 23.5/59.3
10/20 Only the Brave 16/55
10/20 The Snowman 11/31
10/20 Geostorm 12/27.8
10/20 Same Kind of Different as Me 4.5/12

10/27 Suburbicon 14/45
10/27 Jigsaw 10/21.6
10/27 Thank You For Your Service 5/17.5
10/28 All I See is You

11/1 A Bad Moms Christmas 22/85
11/3 Thor: Ragnarok 100/250

11/10 Daddy's Home 2 30/95
11/10 Murder on the Orient Express 23.5/84.6




PROS:

Daddy’s Home 2 (Paramount) is well-positioned to benefit from holiday season family crowds with its current release date. The return of Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg, plus the additions of Mel Gibson and John Lithgow, could also bring back those who enjoyed the original surprise hit comedy.

Murder on the Orient Express (Fox) boasts an impressive ensemble cast and intriguing early marketing that could solidify this as a viable counter-programming option for adult audiences heading into the holidays.


CONS:

Daddy’s Home 2 will need to buck the trend of comedic sequels, which have performed significantly below their original predecessors in recent years (see Zoolander 2, Horrible Bosses 2, Dumb and Dumber To, Ted 2, etc.). Opening in between two major superhero films and Pixar’s Coco two weeks later could additionally cut into the target family audience.

We’d like to see more social media activity from Murder on the Orient Express in the coming weeks, but its modest signs of growth so far aren’t necessarily a bad sign given the target older audience. The film’s primary concern could be facing off against a slew of award season contenders throughout November and December if many of them prove to be mainstream friendly.


This Week’s Changes and Other Notes

Next week’s openers still promise to bring a surge of excellent counter-programming. Kingsman: The Golden Circle continues to track highly on the heels of strong marketing and goodwill. LEGO Ninjago should benefit from the lack of family options since summer, but initial buzz is notably lower than LEGO Batman and LEGO Movie, so we’re slightly lowering expectations for opening weekend.

Early reviews are very encouraging for American Made, with social media growth approaching the pre-release levels of last year’s The Accountant. While the film is tracking upward, we remain a bit conservative given the wealth of competition for male audiences in late September/early October.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by undeadmonkey »

It's weird how the 2 weeks before IT the box office was just barren of wide releases and now the next few weeks are just overstuffed.

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

That's what happens when the distributors are busy with the festivals and mainstream media won't stop shoving the NFL down everyone's throats.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by W »

I don't understand. It's bad or good to open a movie on NFL opening weekend?

And if I spent a billion dollars (literally) on something, I'd promote the Hell out of it.

I just think it's always been a down time, so they don't release things they have high hopes for. It's starting to change as your can see by It, Kingsman, Ninjago, etc.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

The studios tend to avoid opening the same week as the NFL's opening week for a few reasons. First, four of the Big Six (Disney, Fox, Universal, Paramount) are owned by conglomerates that have major connections to the NFL (and I imagine AT&T does as well so make that five of six). Second, that Thursday to Monday is going to be wall-to-wall with football so opening a movie at that slot is essentially suicide as sumo wrestlers in pads and that jackass in Foxborough will get all the attention (also, you can't get drunk or come in shirtless with a painted body at an AMC).

Of course, the NFL's popularity has begun to decline in recent years and September just had its biggest opening ever (ironic that it wasn't the Marvel title that IMAX had such high hopes for).
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by transformers2 »

Buscemi2 wrote:The studios tend to avoid opening the same week as the NFL's opening week for a few reasons. First, four of the Big Six (Disney, Fox, Universal, Paramount) are owned by conglomerates that have major connections to the NFL (and I imagine AT&T does as well so make that five of six). Second, that Thursday to Monday is going to be wall-to-wall with football so opening a movie at that slot is essentially suicide as sumo wrestlers in pads and that jackass in Foxborough will get all the attention (also, you can't get drunk or come in shirtless with a painted body at an AMC).


Of course, the NFL's popularity has begun to decline in recent years and September just had its biggest opening ever (ironic that it wasn't the Marvel title that IMAX had such high hopes for).
Football is on Thursday, Sunday and Monday from the beginning of September to the end of December (and every weekend from January through the beginning of February). If studios were truly concerned about football hurting attendance, they wouldn't release a fucking thing for nearly half of the year. The idea that people aren't going to see movies because football is on is absolutely ludicrous. I've been watching the NFL religiously for the last 18 years and have never had any sort of issue managing to see a movie I'm interested in during weekends where football is on. I may be a classless sadist that takes pleasure in watching sumo wrestlers in pads murder each other on a weekly basis, but I have a hard time believing that I'm the only asshole that is able to pull this feat off.

As for your 1st point, Sully and It have put up excellent numbers in back-to-back years on the sacred opening weekend for the NFL. If there's a movie coming out that generates mass excitement, butts will be in the seats, regardless of what time of year it is.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

You can't compare the 10th or 11th week to the first week. The first week of the NFL season is like the first weekend of college football or Opening Day of the MLB season: people put everything away to focus on that.

And Sully had the advantage of IMAX surcharges (90% was shot on the IMAX cameras) as well as the teaming of Tom Hanks and Clint Eastwood. You could have put it out on any weekend and it would have made money (look at how well American Sniper did in January).
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by undeadmonkey »

All i was saying, is that there are so many similar movies coming out this next month that wont hit $15M on opening weekend, what would have been the harm of releasing a few the 2 weeks before IT...

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

9/29 American Made 16/54
9/29 Flatliners 11/26
9/29 A Question of Faith n/a
9/29 Til Death Do Us Part n/a

10/6 Blade Runner 2049 44/115
10/6 The Mountain Between Us 11.5/36
10/6 My Little Pony 7.5/21.5

10/13 Happy Death Day 20/40
10/13 Marshall 12/39
10/13 The Foreigner 10/27.7
10/13 Professor Marston & the Wonder Woman n/a

10/20 Boo 2! A Madea Halloween 23.5/59.3
10/20 Only the Brave 16/55
10/20 The Snowman 11/31
10/20 Geostorm 12/27.8
10/20 Same Kind of Different as Me 4.5/12

10/27 Suburbicon 14/45
10/27 Jigsaw 10/21.6
10/27 Thank You For Your Service 5/17.5
10/28 All I See is You

11/1 A Bad Moms Christmas 22/85
11/3 Thor: Ragnarok 100/250

11/10 Daddy's Home 2 30/95
11/10 Murder on the Orient Express 23.5/84.6

11/17 Justice League 150/330
11/17 Wonder 16/60
11/17 The Star 13/60



PROS:

Justice League (Warner Bros.) will unite key heroes from the DC universe with the promise of Batman, Wonder Woman, The Flash, Aquaman, Cyborg, and (presumably) Superman joining forces in their first film as a collective group. The previous DC universe films have generated major financial success thus far, although only Wonder Woman has enjoyed both box office supremacy and critical + audience adoration. The latter’s goodwill — on top of the fact that Batman is still one of the most bankable icons in film history — could allow some audiences to give League the benefit of the doubt. Fans are also very curious about what kind of influence Joss Whedon (The Avengers) will have had on the finished product since Zack Snyder stepped down during production following a family tragedy.

The Star (Sony / Columbia) will serve as this holiday season’s Christmas-centric animation with an eye toward faith-based audiences and families with young children. Having five days to itself before Pixar’s Coco opens will help it get a head start for what should be a leggy run through November and December.

Wonder (Lionsgate) should find a strong female audience on opening weekend as the film aims to parlay Raquel J. Palacio’s beloved 2012 dramatic children’s novel into cinematic success. Initial social media buzz is very encouraging as the film boasts over 234,000 Facebook fans before marketing has truly kicked in. This could be a sleeper to keep an eye on, especially if awards buzz follows.


CONS:

It’s no secret that Batman v Superman was received poorly by many fans, and that will be Justice League‘s biggest obstacle to overcome as the spiritual sequel to that film. In addition, opening in the third weekend of Marvel’s Thor: Ragnarok could present even more challenges since this is the shortest competitive window in which DC and Marvel tentpoles have attempted to compete within against each another. As such, reviews and early fan reactions will be crucial to Justice League‘s long term prospects.

The Star will ultimately be relying on word of mouth to manufacture a solid holiday run, something that could be moderately challenging with Coco opening five days later. Awareness is fairly low at this stage with little activity across Facebook and Twitter. As such, we’re expecting a run more in line with the likes of Arthur Christmas and Happy Feet Two at this time and some modest ability to co-exist with the Pixar film.

Wonder hasn’t generated much buzz among Twitter users recently, but that could easily change when marketing ramps up in early November.


This Week’s Notes & Other Changes

Recent marketing for The Mountain Between Us has livened up social media activity. Trends remain at about half the overall pace of last year’s The Girl on the Train, but Kate Winslet and Idris Elba should still provide solid appeal to adults.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

10/6 Blade Runner 2049 48/135
10/6 The Mountain Between Us 11.5/36
10/6 My Little Pony 7/20

10/13 Happy Death Day 20/40
10/13 Marshall 12/39
10/13 The Foreigner 10/27.7
10/13 Professor Marston & the Wonder Woman n/a

10/20 Boo 2! A Madea Halloween 23.5/59.3
10/20 Only the Brave 15/51.5
10/20 The Snowman 11/33
10/20 Geostorm 12/27.8
10/20 Same Kind of Different as Me 4.5/12

10/27 Jigsaw 13.5/29
10/27 Suburbicon 10/32
10/27 Thank You For Your Service 5/17.5
10/28 All I See is You

11/1 A Bad Moms Christmas 22/85
11/3 Thor: Ragnarok 100/250

11/10 Daddy's Home 2 30/95
11/10 Murder on the Orient Express 23.5/84.6

11/17 Justice League 150/330
11/17 Wonder 16/60
11/17 The Star 13/60

11/22 Coco 60/270 (Fri-Sun, opening Wed.)
11/22 Death Wish 8/23 (Fri-Sun, opening Wed.)
11/22 Molly's Game 6/21 (Fri-Sun, opening Wed.)





PROS:

Coco (Disney / Pixar) will mark Pixar’s 19th feature film, and their first non-sequel since 2015’s The Good Dinosaur opened over the same holiday frame. Trailers have been warmly received by fans and families, helping to generate social media activity on par with the likes of Inside Out and Big Hero 6 at comparable points before release. The lack of blockbuster animated titles this year should further increase demand among parents, while the film’s central story and setting set it up to appeal strongly across the growing Latino and Hispanic communities.

Death Wish (Annapurna / MGM) will aim to counter-program among older male audiences with Bruce Willis stepping in to remake the role Charles Bronson made famous in the 1970s. Director Eli Roth’s fan base could also turn out, giving this an interesting cross-section of potential moviegoers.

Molly’s Game (STXfilms) hails from writer and first-time director Aaron Sorkin, whose considerable legion of fans will be relied upon here. Equally as important will be Jessica Chastain’s increasing stardom and the film’s potential award season candidacy. Early reviews from various screenings are very encouraging at this stage with a 93 percent Rotten Tomatoes score across 29 reviewers.


CONS:

There are very few factors working against Coco at this point in time. The only cautionary tale is to mention the film lacks a major star (ala Dwayne Johnson in last Thanksgiving’s Moana) to bolster opening weekend drawing power, but that’s only a minor concern with the Disney/Pixar brand power. The only thing that can genuinely hurt a holiday season Disney/Pixar title in the long run will ultimately be word of mouth, but their history generally speaks for itself at this point.

Death Wish is unlikely to break out beyond target audiences with male-driven action flicks like Justice League and Thor: Ragnarok still likely to be heavy hitters over the holiday frame. Social buzz is also minimal this far out from release.

Similarly, Molly’s Game will need more than Chastain and Sorkin’s fans to drive it (as exemplified by the lukewarm runs of Miss Sloane and Steve Jobs, respectively). Opening against Darkest Hour in limited release that weekend could also be a factor with Gary Oldman’s performance as Winston Churchill likely to attract similar adult moviegoers interested in prestige-level films.


This Week’s Notable Updates

Fandango announced this morning — on the heels of an early review embargo lift from Warner Bros. — that Blade Runner 2049 is outselling Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, and Gravity at the same point in the pre-release cycle. For now, we’re maintaining our expectation of a strong debut somewhere between $40-50 million since those comps occurred before the company’s exhibitor and customer outreach expanded over the last 2+ years. That being said, the film’s current 97 percent Rotten Tomatoes score and intense fan interest could drive momentum even higher by the time our final forecast is published ahead of opening day next week.

Lukewarm social media trends for Only the Brave have convinced us to lower expectations slightly, but it remains filed under “potential sleeper” for the time being.

Jigsaw‘s prospects are improving somewhat with a planned IMAX and premium screen release in late October, not to mention a heavy dose of awareness building thanks to its trailer attachment in front of IT over the past few weeks.

Suburbicon‘s first wave of reactions are underwhelming with a 41 percent score among 49 Rotten Tomatoes critics. At this point, the turnout by fans of Matt Damon, director George Clooney, and the scripting Coen Brothers will be crucial if the film is to generate staying power throughout the holiday corridor.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

I haven't seen a thing for Only the Brave. And seeing how it's a film Sony picked up rather than it being an in-house production, I'd be surprised if it could do half of that that $51.5 million number they're saying.

And I think Blade Runner 2049 outselling those three movies has more to do with it being a brand name than anything (since people only ever seem to want sequels and things they've seen 20 times before). It's not going to play like Gravity or The Martian did (maybe if it had Ryan Gosling as an astronaut discovering Space Jesus). Mad Max, possibly, but word of mouth's going to need to be insanely good to do that.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

I've seen one trailer (in a theater) for Only the Brave. This astounds me, seeing as how the film is based in Arizona and I LIVE IN ARIZONA. Granted, I don't watch a lot of TV, but still... this was a tragedy that affected the whole state.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi2 »

With the exception of Boo! 2, I see all the October 20th releases bombing. Geostorm's had awful test screenings and a lot of reshoots, Michael Fassbender's not a box office draw and Universal hasn't been pushing The Snowman too well, and the less said about Same Kind of Different as Me, the better.

The only late October title with potential is Jigsaw and not because of the methhead sitting next to me at It saying "yes" every time they said "jigsaw" or a kill happened in the trailer convinced me that it does.

Kind of ironic that that the Lionsgate title in October that had the most breakout potential might end up being the lowest grossing of the three (I keep having to rework my column because of the uncertainty on this one) all because the industry can't figure out how to market to little girls (Frozen made $400 million domestic and yet the industry still won't claim there's a female audience under 13) or Internet subcultures (we'll find it terrible but the fans will think it's the greatest thing ever made).
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