Future Tracking From Exhibitors

[Buscemi2]

I see La Llorona playing like the fifth Paranormal Activity did: good opening followed by a quick drop. And it will play much better in Latino-heavy markets than in other markets.

[Screen203]

I see La Llorona playing like the fifth Paranormal Activity did: good opening followed by a quick drop. And it will play much better in Latino-heavy markets than in other markets.

Weren't all of the Paranormal activity movies after 3 considered disappointments at the time of their release?

[Buscemi2]

Paramount initially tried to dump The Marked Ones and not sell it as a Paranormal Activity film. I would imagine its result was a bit of a surprise, compared to the fourth film and The Ghost Dimension (which was delayed a few times and had its release blocked by AMC). International grosses a bit better and I'd imagine any profit was good profit for these.

[Screen203]

I thought AMC was the only mainstream chain that allowed the Paramount VOD films.

And I meant more with comparison to expectations (4 in particular) in regards to the later films disappointing. I can't imagine Paramount didn't make a profit off of The Marked Ones.

[Shrykespeare]

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


3/8 Captain Marvel 160/450

3/15 Five Feet Apart 13/39
3/15 Wonder Park 9/34

3/22 Us 44/135

3/29 Dumbo 55/164
3/29 Hotel Mumbai n/a
3/29 Unplanned

4/5 Shazam! 48/144
4/5 Pet Sematary 28/65
4/5 The Best of Enemies 10/30

4/12 Hellboy 22/46
4/12 Little 15/43
4/12 Missing Link 10/49
4/12 After n/a

4/17 Breakthrough 15/56
4/17 Penguins 4.5/17.5
4/19 The Curse of La Llorona 20/45

4/26 Avengers: Endgame 265/695




Avengers: Endgame
Opening Weekend Tracking Range: $250 – 290 million

PROS:

Audiences around the world have embraced the MCU’s library of characters over the past decade, setting up an emotional connection that has turned nearly every installment of the franchise in recent years into event-level cinema.

In a soon-to-be-published interview with Boxoffice, Joe Russo — one of the film’s two directors — stated that test audiences have given Endgame “some of the most incredible responses in Marvel history.”

Infinity War‘s lead-in one year ago offered one of the most talked-about cliffhangers in cinema history. That film generated a stellar $678.8 million domestic haul from a record $257.7 million opening weekend. The curiosity surrounding its resolution and the fate of many beloved characters will result in high awareness, intent to see, and desire to not have Endgame spoiled.

On the social media front, Boxoffice is tracking a consistently higher level of Twitter and Facebook activity for Endgame than its predecessor’s strong results last year.

This week’s Trailer Impact survey delivered a 94 percent Average Positive Interest score, the highest score tracked on the service since its inception. That metric hasn’t dipped below 93 percent since Endgame first appeared on the survey in December.

With audience interest in premium experiences higher than ever, plus a film shot entirely in IMAX format (like Infinity War), earnings for this film’s run — especially on opening weekend with intense fan demand — will be boosted by sales for IMAX, Dolby Cinema, and other PLF screens.


CONS:

This is the closest thing to a safe box office bet since the previous Avengers film, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. If there are caveats to forecasts at this stage, they are the unpredictable X factors of whether or not mainstream moviegoers side with test audiences (and, eventually, critics) and how kid-friendly the movie will be if any characters actually do meet a permanent demise. Even then, a massive opening is all but assured — regardless of whether or not it sets another record.

[Screen203]

I see more for Shazam! and less for Pet Sematary. I don't see how it would do better than the Evil Dead remake.

Shazam! will appeal to kids not interested in Dumbo, and is being released during Spring Break, which often leads these films to overperform.

[numbersix]

Pet Semetary is coming off the back of It and is positioning itself as similar in style. Huge opening, but a big drop when folks realise it's not It after all.

I don't get the appeal of Shazam - looks like a second rate superhero movie to me.

[undeadmonkey]

I don't get the appeal of Shazam - looks like a second rate superhero movie to me.

so did aquaman

[Buscemi2]

The thing that worries me about Shazam is that Warner Bros. still has not released a final trailer. Every trailer that's come out has been a variation of the teaser trailer that was released months ago.

Not sure if this has something to do with the reshoots or not.

[Shrykespeare]

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


3/15 Five Feet Apart 12/36
3/15 Wonder Park 9/34
3/15 Captive State n/a

3/22 Us 44/135

3/29 Dumbo 60/179
3/29 Unplanned 1.5/3.5
3/29 Hotel Mumbai n/a

4/5 Shazam! 48/144
4/5 Pet Sematary 28/65
4/5 The Best of Enemies 10/30

4/12 Hellboy 20/40
4/12 Little 15/43
4/12 Missing Link 10/49
4/12 After n/a

4/17 Breakthrough 15/56
4/17 Penguins 4.5/17.5
4/19 The Curse of La Llorona 20/45

4/26 Avengers: Endgame 265/695

5/3 Long Shot 16/60
5/3 The Intruder 14.5/40
5/3 Uglydolls 8/27





The Intruder
Opening Weekend Range: $11 – 16 million

PROS:
Counter-programming the big Marvel blockbuster with an urban thriller could be a smart play, especially with Sony’s past success in the genre.

CONS:
Following the success of Breaking In and Don’t Breathe, audiences may draw comparisons between this film and those similar genre pics.


Long Shot
Opening Weekend Range: $13 – 18 million

PROS:
Seth Rogen has a solid track record with comedies friendly to adult date night audiences, including Neighbors and Knocked Up.
Early buzz around the film is encouraging, particularly the chemistry between Charlize Theron and Rogen.

CONS:
Several films aiming to counter-program in May (such as The Hustle and Poms) will be targeting adult audiences and female viewers, creating potential for overlap.


Uglydolls
Opening Weekend Range: $7 – 12 million

PROS:
This will provide an option for parents with young kids not old enough for the more mature content of Avengers: Endgame.

CONS:
Aside from the Avengers shadow, the following week’s Detective Pikachu provides another significant source of competition for young audiences.

[Shrykespeare]

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


3/22 Us 48/147

3/29 Dumbo 60/179
3/29 Unplanned 1.5/3.5
3/29 Hotel Mumbai n/a

4/5 Shazam! 49/160
4/5 Pet Sematary 27/63
4/5 The Best of Enemies 10/30

4/12 Hellboy 16/34
4/12 Little 15/43
4/12 Missing Link 10/49
4/12 After n/a

4/17 Breakthrough 15/56
4/17 Penguins 4.5/17.5
4/19 The Curse of La Llorona 20/45

4/26 Avengers: Endgame 265/635

5/3 Long Shot 16/60
5/3 The Intruder 14.5/40
5/3 Uglydolls 8/27

5/10 Detective Pikachu 90/250
5/10 Poms 12.5/45
5/10 The Hustle 12.5/35
5/10 All is True n/a






Detective Pikachu
Opening Weekend Range: $75 million+

PROS:

The Pokémon brand is a cultural phenomenon around the globe, ranking among the top selling intellectual properties of the past two decades, most recently evidenced by the wildly popular Pokémon GO mobile game.

Social media activity since the film’s first trailer launch has been stellar, breaking our internal Twitter tracking record with 400,000+ mentions on the day of release.

Fresh off the blockbuster success of the Deadpool films, Ryan Reynolds’ voice presence behind this franchise’s most recognizable and popular character could further bolster appeal to the curious and uninitiated audiences.

1999’s animated film, Pokémon: The First Movie, earned over $31 million on opening weekend and $85.7 million domestically — and that was before the now-multi-generational brand was well-known outside its core followers. To that end, a live action film has long been anticipated by its loyal and far-reaching fan base.

Opening in the third weekend of Avengers: Endgame and two weeks before Aladdin could give it enough breathing room for a pre-Memorial Day breakout, especially if the former of those two competitors delivers another ending too dark for parents with young kids.

CONS:

While two weeks sandwiching this film between two major Disney titles should be enough, Endgame‘s third weekend could still prove formidable enough to cut into this film’s potential casual audience.

The brand’s popularity is undeniable, although there is acknowledgement that buzz could be heavily skewed by international audiences relative to most other franchise films.


The Hustle
Opening Weekend Range: $9 – 14 million

PROS:

Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson provide notable star power in this remake of Dirty Rotten Scoundrels, timed for a Mother’s Day weekend release in hopes of drawing young-to-middle-aged women.

CONS:

Direct competition with the weekend’s other female-driven opener (see below) could cut into this film’s opening potential.


Poms
Opening Weekend Range: $10 – 15 million

PROS:

An ensemble cast led by Diane Keaton should appeal strongly to fans of last year’s Book Club, particularly among audiences aged 50 and up, on Mother’s Day weekend.

CONS:

Any crossover the film might have with The Hustle due to potential mother-daughter outings for the holiday weekend could cut into performance.

[Screen203]

I could see Detective Pikachu becoming a mini-Jurrasic World-type hit. Buzz around it feels very similar to that, and Pokemon GO! being so popular a few years ago means that Pokemon's brand is still relevant. It also has the 90's nostalgia that helped the aforementioned, as well as It, Beauty and the Beast, and Captain Marvel. The PG rating will build the film as an alternative to the more intense films like Avengers and Godzilla

[Buscemi2]

I do not get the Detective Pikachu hype at all. First of all, the film looks like a complete mess with all of the different characters and trying to be gritty even with the PG rating (I was convinced this would be PG-13). Second, it doesn't even feel like Pokemon (I'm convinced Nintendo should have done this as a series for Netflix with each season covering two of the games). And third, the whole thing seems to be nothing more than an excuse for Ryan Reynolds to play himself again.

It would not be a surprise to see this end up like Mary Poppins Returns: massive hype and then we actually see it.

[Screen203]

90's nostalgia is what 80's nostalgia used to be. And I think the changes are to appeal to a wider audience. Tge marketing has done a good job appealing to the uninterested/uninitiated.

[Shrykespeare]

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:


3/29 Dumbo 60/179
3/29 Unplanned 1.5/3.5
3/29 Hotel Mumbai n/a

4/5 Shazam! 50/165
4/5 Pet Sematary 28/66
4/5 The Best of Enemies 10/30

4/12 Hellboy 16/34
4/12 Little 15/43
4/12 Missing Link 10/49
4/12 After n/a

4/17 Breakthrough 15/56
4/17 Penguins 4.5/17.5
4/19 The Curse of La Llorona 20/45

4/26 Avengers: Endgame 265/635

5/3 Long Shot 16/60
5/3 The Intruder 14.5/40
5/3 Uglydolls 8/27

5/10 Detective Pikachu 90/250
5/10 Poms 12.5/45
5/10 The Hustle 12.5/35
5/10 All is True n/a

5/17 John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum 35/100
5/17 The Sun is Also a Star 17/36
5/17 A Dog's Journey 11/39.5








John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum
Opening Weekend Range: $30 – 40 million

PROS:

The franchise has proven incredibly popular with the second film’s strong $30.4 million debut and solid staying power up to $92 million domestically — all following the leggy run of 2014’s original film.
A general absence of action films targeting adult males around this time of year — and a considerable three-week distance from Avengers: Endgame — should prove beneficial, especially with Memorial Day landing on its second weekend.
Reactions to this film’s early trailers have been very enthusiastic, mirroring the positive sentiment earned by Chapter 2 two years ago.

CONS:

Franchises can often be susceptible to diminished returns as they go deeper into sequel territory, so pre-release reception will be important to watch out for.


A Dog’s Journey
Opening Weekend Range: $8 – 14 million

PROS:

Fans of W. Bruce Cameron’s novels and previous adaptations of his work — A Dog’s Purpose and A Dog’s Way Home — are expected to be the driving force here.
Getting a one-week jump on Memorial Day should provide padding to staying power.

CONS:

The sort-of-franchise already experienced diminished returns with A Dog’s Way Home earlier this year. This film faces the additional challenge of landing on Detective Pikachu‘s second weekend, while then facing Aladdin one week later.


The Sun Is Also A Star
Opening Weekend Range: $9 – 14 million

PROS:

This adaptation of the popular young adult novel could benefit from its diverse cast and a relative lack of direct competition from date night movies.
Comparable films like Five Feet Apart, Love, Simon, Everything, Everything, and Me Before You have recently achieved success while counter-programming blockbuster titles in the early-year market.

CONS:

Young adult dramas in general are well off their early 2010s peak at the box office.