Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Discuss weekly box office numbers, PTA numbers, and date changes.

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undeadmonkey
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by undeadmonkey »

I'd be surprised if either opens that low. Apparently they've both been testing well, yes even Baywatch.

Obviously i'm biased when it comes to Pirates, Curse of the Black Pearl is a top 5 film for me. (doubt that's a list spoiler for anyone. :D ) This film looks like a continuation of the original trilogy and i'm really looking forward to it. While i really wanted to like the 4th one, it didn't amount to much more than being a Jack Sparrow spinoff that resembled a loony toons episode. I'm not sure which trailers you've been watching but they very clearly lay out the plot. Not saying it'll break any records but i bet it can do as much as the 4th one at the box office.

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi »

It's the trailer showing with Beauty and the Beast. It's simply a mishmash of the familiar characters (and some ridiculous Jeff Bridges in Tron Legacy-style CGI to make Depp look younger in flashbacks), action sequences, and a few shots of the new cast members. Watching said trailer on IMAX with the quick cuts made it kind of nauseating to watch and when it ends, I was like, "What was all that about?".

Spider-Man: Homecoming also has a rather incoherent trailer but that looked full-bodied compared to Pirates of the Caribbean.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by W »

Baywatch absolutely hits $100 M and Efron matters zero in that calcualtion. It's The Rock, it's scantily clad women, and Baywatch is remembered much more fondly that Jump Street. It didn't work for Chips because no one cares about Dax Shepard, people that go to movies don't care about CHIPS (those people are AT LEAST 50 now), and Michael Pena isn't a draw.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi »

No actor is invincible and is Baywatch really that fondly remembered? Baywatch was perhaps the original hate watch show. People won't go see a film that embraces something that people only watched to make fun of. Outside of Johnson (whose target audience skews younger than the film's hard R rating), you've got the overexposed Efron and a bunch of untested actors (career supporting actor Alexandra Daddario, the unknown to American audiences outside of under threats of cancellation Quantico Priyanka Chopra) and pseudo-celebrities like Charlotte "Only Got Famous for Having an Instagram Account" McKinney. And if people want scantily clad women, they go online. Sex hasn't sold on screen in a long time.

There's 90's nostalgia that worked like Jurassic World and there's failed 90's nostalgia like Scream 4 (where someone thought Emma Roberts could carry a franchise). Baywatch, even with a big movie star like Johnson, won't pack them in with its dreadful trailers, tired raunchy humor, and the fact that giving every forgotten franchise the 21 Jump Street treatment only worked with that series.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by transformers2 »

I'm with W. The name Baywatch doesn't matter at all. The Jump Street movies didn't make money because of the name nor did CHips fail because of it. Actors sell these types of projects and Dwayne Johnson is one of the most bankable ones on the planet right now. He's obviously not bulletproof (Hercules and Pain & Gain proved that), but his drawing power is still higher than most actors in Hollywood right now, and I believe his fanbase paired with the accessibility of the premise will be enough to make Baywatch a hit.

As for Pirates, I don't think it's going to be a huge hit. The franchise has pretty much run its course at this point and I doubt the 6-year gap between films was long enough to re-ignite interest in the franchise. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it fell short of $100 mil.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by numbersix »

Man, Baywatch was one of the most popular shows on global TV of all time. Think it will have major international appeal. The movie doesn't appeal to me but it should do relatively well, especially with The Rock involved.

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by undeadmonkey »

If Power Rangers can do what it is doing now, there is no reason Baywatch can't match it and go beyond that with the Rock attached to it. Not that these types of films live or die by reviews, If the test screenings are accurate, the good reviews can only help.

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

4/21 Unforgettable 10/24.5
4/21 Free Fire 3.5/11
4/21 Born in China 5/17.3
4/21 The Promise 2.2/4.5

4/28 The Circle 10/30
4/28 How to Be a Latin Lover 6.5/23
4/28 Sleight 5/11

5/5 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 160/400

5/12 King Arthur: Legend of the Sword 23/67
5/12 Snatched 25/85
5/12 Lowriders n/a

5/19 Alien: Covenant 35/90
5/19 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul 10/32
5/19 Everything, Everything 8.5/26

5/26 POTC: Dead Men Tell No Tales 61/170
5/26 Baywatch 35/105

6/2 Wonder Woman 83/225
6/2 Captain Underpants 24/80

6/9 The Mummy 50/143
6/9 It Comes at Night n/a



The Mummy
Universal


PROS:
•Tom Cruise has proven his capability toremain a major drawing force at the global box office with the last two Mission: Impossible films, plus the excellent word of mouth and staying power exhibited by 2014’s Edge of Tomorrow. He could help reel in adult audiences otherwise unsure about their interest in another remake of this franchise.
•Social media activity is solid so far, boasting much stronger activity on Facebook and Twitter at the same point before release than did The Legend of Tarzan last year.
•With Transformers: The Last Knight serving as its biggest direct competition until July (and not opening until Mummy‘s third weekend), this film has some breathing room to help build out staying power if audiences respond positively.
•It remains to be seen whether audiences are truly excited about the studio’s planned monster cinematic universe (dubbed “Universal Monsters”) — but this seems as good a way as any to kick it off.

CONS:
•The adult audience Cruise will be gunning to attract is the same one that drove Stephen Sommers’ first two Mummy films, starring Brendan Fraser, to huge success in 1999 and 2001. This remake will need to deliver something unique — in addition to Cruise — in order for it to stand out among that crowd.
•While Cruise’s box office power remains healthy (especially overseas), he has nonetheless delivered modest results outside of the Mission franchise recently. Examples: Oblivion and Edge of Tomorrow‘s own lukewarm domestic opening weekend (which was mitigated by its strong staying power).
•The success of Wonder Woman could be a factor here. If that film hits in a big way the weekend before, particularly after a month of May filled with action films, audiences may be ready for a brief mid-summer reprieve from special effects extravaganzas.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

4/28 The Circle 10/27
4/28 How to Be a Latin Lover 6.5/23
4/28 Sleight 4/8.8

5/5 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 160/400

5/12 King Arthur: Legend of the Sword 23/67
5/12 Snatched 25/85
5/12 Lowriders 5.5/15.3

5/19 Alien: Covenant 35/90
5/19 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul 10/32
5/19 Everything, Everything 8.5/26

5/26 POTC: Dead Men Tell No Tales 61/170
5/26 Baywatch 35/105

6/2 Wonder Woman 83/225
6/2 Captain Underpants 28/93.5

6/9 The Mummy 50/143
6/9 It Comes at Night 12/39

6/16 Cars 3 49/180
6/16 Rough Night 25/80
6/16 All Eyez on Me 18/49
6/16 47 Meters Down n/a




Cars 3
Disney / Pixar


PROS:

If there’s such a thing as a safe box office bet, it’s the combination of Disney and Pixar.

Reactions to the initial teasers have been largely positive, offering some hope among fans that the franchise is in course-correction mode after the divisive (by Pixar standards) Cars 2.

Getting a two-week head start on the release of Despicable Me 3 positions this to capture family audiences early in the summer as kids are getting out of school.


CONS:

The aforementioned reception of Cars 2 could be a hindrance to major anticipation for this third installment, particularly among older Pixar fans.

If Captain Underpants takes off with family crowds in early June, that will also soften some of the immediate demand for another animated option among parents and children.


Rough Night
Sony


PROS:

Scarlett Johansson, Kate McKinnon, and a solid ensemble cast could help bring out both men and women in this raunchy, R-rated comedy. Healthy buzz and strong trailers closer to release will be key, though.

As Bad Moms proved last summer (and Bridesmaids in 2011), “girls’ night out” comedies are not to be underestimated at the box office.

In general, the female audience has continued to be under-served in recent summers when compared to male-oriented films.


CONS:

As the second female-centric comedy to open this summer after Snatched in May, plus with the similarly themed Girls Trip in mid-July, the market isn’t as wide open for this title as it was for Bad Moms last year. Baywatch could also cut into the audience here if its staying power proves strong.

Initial social media buzz isn’t as strong as we’d like to see compared to similar films, but there’s plenty of time for that pick up.


All Eyez on Me
Lionsgate / Summit


PROS:

More than 20 years after his death, Tupac Shakur continues to stand as a legendary symbol among the hip-hop community.

Straight Outta Compton demonstrated the heights that bio-pics about modern hip-hop icons can reach. The counter-programming potential on opening weekend is noteworthy.

Social media buzz has been notably positive since the first trailer’s release.


CONS:

Reviews and a big marketing push will be key to determining the ceiling for this film. It would be unfair to expect Straight Outta Compton-like box office numbers — then again, this film doesn’t necessarily need them.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi »

Rough Night won't come close to $80 million. There's been almost no marketing and Johansson's last film bombed while the other cast members don't have box office appeal. If this had Kristen Wiig, I'd think otherwise.

And that It Comes at Night number is baffling. When I've seen the trailer in the theatre, there's been no reaction and in addition, hardly anyone saw Krisha (A24 made a mistake to heavily promote this as being from the director of a film that never even got a home video release). I'd be surprised if this even hit $10 million.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

5/12 King Arthur: Legend of the Sword 21/61.2
5/12 Snatched 21.5/72.7
5/12 Lowriders 1.5/3.5

5/19 Alien: Covenant 37/95
5/19 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul 6/20.6
5/19 Everything, Everything 11/33.6

5/26 POTC: Dead Men Tell No Tales 68/212
5/26 Baywatch 35/105

6/2 Wonder Woman 83/225
6/2 Captain Underpants 28/93.5

6/9 The Mummy 50/143
6/9 It Comes at Night 12/39

6/16 Cars 3 49/180
6/16 Rough Night 25/80
6/16 All Eyez on Me 18/49
6/16 47 Meters Down n/a

6/23 Transformers: The Last Knight, 79/195

6/28 Baby Driver 15/50
6/30 Despicable Me 3 75/270
6/30 The House 28/126
6/30 Amityville: The Awakening 8.5/18



Despicable Me 3
Universal / Illumination


PROS:

The immense success of the first two films, plus Minions, has turned this series into the biggest animated franchise at the box office since the days of Shrek. Collectively, the three films have earned more than $955 million in North America and $2.67 billion globally.

Arguably the most popular aspect of the franchise has proven to be the aforementioned minion characters, whose cuteness and comedy hijinks have become a pillar of the films’ appeal to audiences — especially young kids.

Being distanced two weeks away from Pixar’s Cars 3 gives it enough breathing room to still generate a big opening without severely direct competition. As the last major animated release until The Emoji Movie in late July, this should again do very well with family audiences throughout the heart of summer.

CONS:

We’ve said it before, but it still applies: diminished returns are a historical guarantee for most franchises after a certain point. We expect that to be the case here, but in relative terms, this will still be one of the biggest box office hits of the summer and could again be a challenger for the $1 billion worldwide club.

This element won’t have a significant impact on very young audiences, but the release of Spider-Man: Homecoming in its second weekend could slightly cut into the young tween crowd that has served as a distant secondary audience for this series in the past.


The House
Warner Bros. / New Line


PROS:

The comedy pairing of Will Ferrell and Amy Poehler offers significant commercial potential. Poehler especially has seen her drawing power rise in recent years thanks to the success of TV’s Parks and Recreation and 2015’s Sisters. Ferrell is also fresh off one his biggest career hits in Daddy’s Home.

As an R-rated comedy appealing to both men and women (and parents), this could have broad appeal if word of mouth is healthy.

CONS:

Unfortunately, Ferrell’s drawing power isn’t quite as strong as it was ten years ago. That’s not necessarily a negative, but it does increase the need for positive reviews and/or word of mouth to help this film catch on with audiences.

Initial social media buzz is quite underwhelming, particularly on Facebook. Still, as an original comedy, that’s not necessarily something that can’t or won’t be improved upon once the film’s release is closer.


Baby Driver
Sony / Columbia


PROS:

Initial reviews are very encouraging as the film already sits at 100 percent from 22 critics’ entries on Rotten Tomatoes.

The ensemble cast of both veterans (Jamie Foxx, Kevin Spacey, Jon Hamm) and rising stars (Ansel Elgort and Lily James) could help drive interest (no pun intended) across a variety of moviegoers.

Director Edgar Wright has a loyal fan following thanks to his successful and beloved films Shaun of the Dead, Hot Fuzz, The World’s End, and Scott Pilgrim vs. the World.

As one of the few original films releasing this summer, audiences may welcome the reprieve offered by a light-hearted action/thriller that isn’t CGI-reliant or part of a franchise. We think this has sleeper hit potential written all over it if marketing can back up the product.

CONS:

Initial social media buzz isn’t exactly on fire (notably on Facebook). Again, for an original film, there’s plenty of time for that to turn around.
Despite his loyal following, Wright’s resume is fairly limited in terms of box office grosses (although that’s not a bad thing considering the low budgets he’s typically worked with). In fairness, this could expand his potential audience. If there’s a director due for a breakout box office success, it’s him.
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

5/19 Alien: Covenant 37/95
5/19 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul 8.5/29.2
5/19 Everything, Everything 11/33.6

5/26 POTC: Dead Men Tell No Tales 68/212
5/26 Baywatch 35/105

6/2 Wonder Woman 83/225
6/2 Captain Underpants 28/93.5

6/9 The Mummy 50/143
6/9 It Comes at Night 12/39
6/9 Megan Landry n/a

6/16 Cars 3 49/180
6/16 Rough Night 25/80
6/16 All Eyez on Me 18/49
6/16 47 Meters Down n/a

6/23 Transformers: The Last Knight, 70/205

6/28 Baby Driver 15/50
6/30 Despicable Me 3 75/270
6/30 The House 28/126
6/30 Amityville: The Awakening 8.5/18

7/7 Spider-Man: Homecoming 135/325



Spider-Man: Homecoming
Sony / Columbia / Marvel Studios


PROS:

Years before the Marvel Cinematic Universe existed, the Spider-Man franchise was putting up record-breaking box office performances at the beginning of the modern era for comic book adaptations. Of course, this is largely attributed to the fact that the character has long been established as one of the most popular and beloved in the entire genre for generations. Sam Raimi’s original trilogy translated that reputation to the tune of more than $1.1 billion in domestic box office grosses across his three films in 2002, 2004, and 2007 — including two (then) record opening weekends for the first and third films.

Tom Holland’s introduction as Peter Parker / Spider-Man in last year’s Captain America: Civil War was widely praised by both fans and critics. Combined with Marvel’s (wise) decision to not retell the character’s specific origin story, Holland’s age-appropriate casting as the high school version of the character could drive strong appeal among teens and young adults.

Initial buzz following the film’s trailers has been very strong. Twitter activity is significantly ahead of The Amazing Spider-Man 2 at the same point before release, while the franchise’s official Facebook page boasts a massive 20.4 million fans (and counting) as of this writing.

A key factor working against the two Amazing Spider-Man films in 2012 and 2014 was an attempt to “Nolan-ize” the franchise — in other words, making it “darker” (for lack of a more accurate essay about what that misnomer of a description really entails) both in storytelling tone and visual atmosphere, ala the Dark Knight trilogy. That strategy worked for Batman because Christopher Nolan’s cerebral approach to the character suited the core storytelling. With Spider-Man, the return to a more light-hearted, coming-of-age superhero drama recalls some of the ingredients that made Raimi’s first two films work on so many levels with a character that isn’t so world-weary.

Bringing in Robert Downey, Jr.’s Tony Stark / Iron Man to help christen the first official Spider-Man movie in the MCU should provide an additional point of interest for adults and older fans. The same can be said — albeit on a more minor level — for Michael Keaton’s casting as the main antagonist.


CONS:

Given that this is technically the sixth Spider-Man film in fifteen years — more importantly, the second “reboot” — some level of audience fatigue toward the character wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect. A strong film with positive reviews could help curb some of that natural downside given the interest surrounding the film taking place within the actual MCU, a missing element lamented by many fans old and young when it came to the two Amazing Spider-Man films.

As the third tentpole comic book film to open within two months’ time, audience demand to return to the genre won’t exactly be at its peak.
This July’s release slate is intriguingly geared toward adult audiences with tentpole films War for the Planet of the Apes and Dunkirk opening in the middle of the month. That means word of mouth and repeat viewings among younger crowds will be particularly important when it comes to Spider-Man‘s long-term success.
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undeadmonkey
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by undeadmonkey »

Guess it'll depend on reviews, but I can't see Spider-Man doing that well.

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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Buscemi »

Yeah, the trailer did nothing for me. It might be MCU this time but it really just looks like more of the same when the fans have been wanting Spider-Man's story to advance past "high school misfit gets superpowers". What's so wrong with depicting Spider-Man as grown-up and established?
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Re: Future Tracking From Exhibitors

Post by Shrykespeare »

Latest Predictions from BoxOffice.com:

5/26 POTC: Dead Men Tell No Tales 68/212
5/26 Baywatch 35/105

6/2 Wonder Woman 93/240
6/2 Captain Underpants 31/103.5

6/9 The Mummy 45/121
6/9 It Comes at Night 12.5/40.6
6/9 Megan Landry 4.5/14

6/16 Cars 3 49/180
6/16 Rough Night 25/80
6/16 All Eyez on Me 18/49
6/16 47 Meters Down n/a

6/23 Transformers: The Last Knight, 70/205

6/28 Baby Driver 15/50
6/30 Despicable Me 3 75/270
6/30 The House 26/95
6/30 Amityville: The Awakening 8.5/18

7/7 Spider-Man: Homecoming 135/325

7/14 War for the Planet of the Apes 54/150
7/14 Wish Upon 11.5/34
7/14 The Big Sick n/a



War for the Planet of the Apes
Fox


PROS:

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes proved to be one of Summer 2014’s few films to exceed both critical and box office expectations, earning a strong $72.6 million opening weekend in mid-July as it capitalized on the goodwill of 2011’s reboot, Rise of the Planet of the Apes.

Andy Serkis’ phenomenal motion capture performance will undoubtedly remain a marquee point of interest for fans of the franchise as he returns in the leading role of Caesar.

Much like its predecessors, this sequel will aim to serve as adult-friendly popcorn fare during a time of year when very little of that is available.

Reactions to the film’s initial trailers have been largely positive, showcasing the culmination of previously established storylines as the scale of action increases to a new level for the series.


CONS:

The previous two films arguably had better market positioning with very few breakout blockbusters surrounding them. This time around, War opens in what looks to be the busiest month of summer and potentially one of the busiest of the year. Opening one week after Spider-Man: Homecoming won’t be an easy task, nor will preceding Christopher Nolan’s highly anticipated Dunkirk by one week — the latter of which will carry significant interest among Apes‘ target adult audience.

Social media buzz for this entry isn’t significantly stronger than the previous film at this stage. That’s not necessarily an ominous sign, but after three years, we’d like to see some signs of growth on at least one major platform.
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